Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by transformers2 »

While Chien was cursing the cinema gods for its existence while subsequently wishing it had been a Netflix production so he would've been spared from seeing it, Aquaman reigned supreme at the US box office yet again.

The latest entry in the up-and-down DCU brought in a solid $52.1 mil in the final weekend of 2018, which is over $10 mil more than 2017's Justice League made in its sophomore frame. Our favorite Frenchman's nautical nightmare is just shy of $200 mil after 9 days of release and with no serious competition hitting theaters until Glass opens in 2 weeks, is looking like it has a strong chance of clearing $300 mil before the end of its run.

As expected, Marry Poppins fared better in her second go 'round, grossing $28.3 mil, which marked a 21% improvement over its debut. Despite initial fears that it was going to be a rare dud for the rodent cash machine, everyone's favorite singing, umbrella-wielding childcare provider looks like she's going to embark on a nice, leggy run.

Thanks to so-so performances from both Christmas Day wide openers (Holmes & Watson, Vice), the rest of the top 5 also remained in tact with Bumblebee (#3, $20.9 mil), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (#4, $18.8 mil) and The Mule (#5, $12.2 mil) holding onto their respective spots from the pre-Christmas weekend. If this week's lone wide opener ends up faltering, it wouldn't be a surprise if these 5 films held onto these spots for a 3rd consecutive weekend.

Even with a less prestigious slate and lower averages than usual, there was a still pretty engaging battle for the top PTA spot of the weekend with the top 4 films finishing just $6,000 apart. Ruth Bader Ginsberg biopic On the Basis of Sex surprisingly edged out Nicole Kidman-led noir flick Destroyer for the top spot, managing a $20,758 average in 33 theaters opposed to the latter's $18,449 in just 3 theaters. The #3 and #4 spots were equally contested, with Laurel and Hardy biopic Stan & Ollie ($15,621) narrowly topping holdover Cold War ($14,777). Low stakes PTA battles can be expected for the next several weeks as there are no notable limited releases hitting theaters until Icelandic survival tale Arctic bows on February 1st.

Wide Release:
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We all know that the first weekend of January is hardly the most prestigious 3-day period on the Hollywood calendar. Studios are still completely invested in their Christmas tentpoles and awards contenders and as a result, don't really give a shit about peddling non-holdover releases. In recent years, cheap, usually not well-received horror flicks have managed to find a home on this inaugural weekend. That proud tradition continues in 2019 with Escape Room (Sony). Adam Roetibel-who I guess is becoming the king of this weekend after his last film,Insidious: The Last Key, occupied this space last year- helms this PG-13 rated affair that centers around a group of strangers (Deborah Ann Woll, Taylor Russell, Logan Miller, Jay Ellis, Tyler Labine, Nik Dodani) that are invited to participate in a series of escape room challenges with a chance of winning millions of dollars upon completion. Only catch is that this challenge was set up by a mysterious group of nefarious figures that knows everything about them and they might die in the process. That what these meddling kids get for chasing money!

You can scoff at the quality or question the long-term memorability of these January horror flicks, but the BO results have been generally pretty damn good. Every single horror flick that has opened in the first 2 weeks of the year since 2012 has cleared $10 mil on its OW (this includes titles like The Forest and The Bye Bye Man) and a couple have even bankrolled over $25 mil (The Devil Inside, the aforementioned Insidious: The Last Key). While it's not likely to join the $25 mil+ club, I expect Escape Room to extend this lengthy streak of double-digit early January horror openers. Its teen-friendly premise is very straightforward and different from the traditional supernatural/exorcism stuff that usually occupies this slot and its status as the first horror release certainly won't hurt it. It will likely fall off a cliff in no time at all, but it should have at least one week of solid business before it fades away.
Prediction: $16 mil OW/2-4 PTA/3-5 Top 5/Mid-to-High 5 IMDb/$35-50 mil overall BO
Price (Jan-Mar):$7 ULT/BO
Worth Putting On Your Slate?: Solid yes in ULT, more emphatic yes in BO


Weekend Projections:
1.Aquaman $34 mil
2.Mary Poppins Returns $23 mil
3.Escape Room $16 mil
4.Bumblebee $13.5 mil
5.Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $13 mil

PTA: Destroyer, On the Basis of Sex, Escape Room, Stan & Ollie, Cold War

Tune in next week when Walleye previews a much more extensive slate of films including canine tearjerker A Dog's Way Home, human tearjerker The Upside and Replicas-an Entertainment Studios project that's actually going to hit theaters!
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by Screen203 »

How many theaters is Escape Room releasing in? I can't see the arthouse crowd seeing a movie that is using quotes from Dish Nation in its marketing.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by transformers2 »

Approximately 2,500. Don't believe the arthouse crowd flocks to too many PG-13-rated horror movies that don't receive mass critical acclaim, so I think it's safe to say that won't factor into Escape Room's BO take :lol:
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by Screen203 »

transformers2 wrote:Approximately 2,500. Don't believe the arthouse crowd flocks to too many PG-13-rated horror movies that don't receive mass critical acclaim, so I think it's safe to say that won't factor into Escape Room's BO take :lol:
Don't mean to be an ass about it, but I think you might have switched Ultimate and Box Office on your column.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

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You weren't being an ass and I didn't reverse my predictions, I think it will be a better value in BO because it could potentially fall out of Top 5 after this weekend and will likely have a middling IMDB score at best.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by Shrykespeare »

Gotta agree with Tranny there. This film looks like a slightly-rehashed Saw knockoff but without the obvious gory deaths (which there may be, but they weren't there in the trailer). Films like this tend to have one good weekend which ends up being 50% of its final take. It very well might finish #3 this week, but it'll drop like a stone after that. I wouldn't take it.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by Screen203 »

That makes sense. I was the one who got the games mixed up.

Hopefully the movie doesn't end with a link to a website to "learn more" about the events in the movie. ;)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by numbersix »

Not sure if Escape Room is slate worthy. I'm thinking a $14m opening and a massive drop, with a cume of $30m max. That'll result in 4 T5 points MAX and no PTA points. Not worth $7 for me.

My Projections
1.Aquaman $26 mil
2.Mary Poppins Returns $19 mil
3.Escape Room $14 mil
4.Bumblebee $11 mil
5.Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $10 mil

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Escape Room - 2,717



Next week:

A Dog's Way Home - 3,000
Replicas - 2,700
The Upside - wide
Perfect Strangers - 125

On the Basis of Sex - 2,000




Celebrity Milestone Birthdays

Verne Troyer would have turned 50 on 1/1
Clancy Brown turns 60 on 1/5
Marilyn Manson turns 50 on 1/5
Norman Reedus torns 50 on 1/6
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

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Clancy Brown is younger than I thought he'd be. I figured he'd be around the same age as Peter Weller and Jeff Goldblum.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by Shrykespeare »

I thought the same thing. He just has a mature face. This meant he was only 35 when he played Byron Hadley in Shawshank... and 27 when he played The Kurgan in the original Highlander movie (damn, he was badass in both movies).

Just recently he played the voice of Surtur in Thor Ragnarok.

And he's been the voice of Mr. Krabs on Spongebob for years. What a resume!!
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascore:

Escape Room: B (pretty good for the genre)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Aquaman, $9.3M
Escape Room, $7.7M
Mary Poppins Returns, $5.1M
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, $4.1M
Bumblebee, $3.9M
The Mule, $2.9M
Vice, $1.8M
Second Act, $1.6M
Ralph Breaks the Internet, $1.5M
Holmes and Watson, $1.1M




Weekend Projections:

Aquaman, $30M
Mary Poppins, $17M
Escape Room, $16M
Spider-Man, $12.9M
Bumblebee, $12.8M
The Mule, $8.8M
Vice, $5.5M
Ralph Breaks the Internet, $4.8M
Second Act, $4.8M
Holmes & Watson, $3.4M
Bohemian Rhapsody, $2.3M



PTA:
Destroyer, $18.3K
On the Basis of Sex, $15.2K
Aquaman, $7.1K
Beale Street, $6.0K
Escape Room, $5.9K
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Aquaman, $30.7M
4 points - Escape Room, $18.0M
3 points - Mary Poppins Returns, $15.6M
2 points - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, $13.0M
1 point - Bumblebee, $12.8M
The Mule, $9.0M
Vice, $5.8M
Second Act, $4.9M
Ralph Breaks the Internet, $4.7M
Holmes & Watson, $3.4M



PTA:
5 points - Destroyer, $18.3K
4 points - Cold War, $15.5K
3 points - On the Basis of Sex, $14.9K
2 points - Stan & Ollie, $12.0K
1 point - Aquaman, $7.3K



Predictions/Observations:

1. Aquaman is a definite lock for $300M. Huh.

2. Mary Poppins looks like it'll top out at $175M, which is pretty much exactly what Greatest Showman made.

3. Spider-Man will hit $160M.

4. Bumblebee will hit $100M mid-week.

5. The Mule has a shot at $100M, which would be the first Eastwood film to do so since Million Dollar Baby.

6. Ralph Breaks the Internet will just outdo its predecessor.

7. Can Bohemian Rhapsody hit $200M? I wonder...
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/4

Post by Screen203 »

Didn't Gran Torino gross over 100 million too?
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

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