SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/25-2

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/25-2

Post by numbersix »

Iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiittttttttttttttttttt’sssssssssss Chrrrrrrrrrrrrrristmassssssssssssss!

(for those who don’t get the reference, listen to Slade)

That’s right, kids, it’s the week of resurrected family tensions, fake smiles directed at dopey relatives who think socks are a good gift, meat hangovers, booze hangovers, and hometown hangovers. And to try to avoid it all, it seems the cinema is the chosen house of hiding.

Last week was a bonanza of box office. Aquaman surpassed expectations with its $69m-ish opening. And while Mary Poppins Returns earned below expectations, films like this tend to hold really well. This week, however, is the furry orange in the bottom of your Christmas stocking, with a bunch of titles already looking like losers as they try to take on the titans of last week.




Holmes & Watson (Sony) is a perfect blockbuster. If it were 2007. It stars Will Ferrell and John C Reilly as the titular characters, taking a comic view on the crime-solving duo as they try to stop an assassination of the Queen. Rebecca Hall, Ralph Fiennes, and Kelly MacDonald provide support. The problem is that Will Ferrell is not so hot right now, and Reilly has moved into more dramatic and offbeat territory (see below). The last time these were together it was 2008’s Step Brothers. But this is unlikely to match that film’s $100m intake. And early reviews are suggesting this is no comedy classic.

Opening on Christmas Day, this film will struggle to rise above Sherry Bobbins or Fishface, or possibly even Spideroon. But, it is the only big full-on comedy of the holidays. So expect it to have a 3 day weekend in the high teens with a 5-day in the mid 20s, and a decent hold until the New Year. In ultimate that will get you 4-5 T5 points, a low 6s in IMDB, a final count in the 70s, and probably no PTA points. That’s not great for $15/$12 in Ultimate or $16-$14 in BO.




Next is Vice, one of Annapurna’s Oscar hopefuls. Written and directed by Adam McKay (who made Step Brothers, coincidentally enough), this is his follow-up to the surprise hit The Big Short, a fast-paced satire about the economic recession of 2007. Here, he sets his sights on Dick Cheney during his misadventures during George Bush’s administration. In what is part of his attempt in playing every type of person imaginable (next he’s going to play Annie) Christian Bale plays Cheney, with Amy Adams as his wife, Steve Carrell as Donald Rumsfeld, and Sam Rockwell as Bush.

Expectations are for this to play like The Big Short (which ended up with $70m). But before you buy stocks in this baby, remember that Annapurna are struggling at the moment and may not have the heft to push this into the mainstream. And despite some initial awards nominations, the film’s middling reviews are going to limit its appeal to the older crowd. An opening in the low teens (after a launch on Christmas Day) is the best you’ll see, but this will struggle to hit $40m. 1 or 2 T5 points, no PTA, and a possible low 7s IMDB score is all to expect. Not quite worth $7 or $9 in Ultimate, although it may be worth a Cheney-esque shot in the dark in BO ($7/$8).




On the Basis of Sex (Focus) sounds titillating, but zip it up, fellah, the title is more about gender than creaming the Twinkie, if you catch my drift. The film is a biopic of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg (subject of this year’s successful doc RBG), particularly her early career as she and her husband fought in a landmark sexual discrimination case. Felicity Jones plays RBG, joined by Armie Hammer, Justin Theroux, and Kathy Bates. Despite RBG’s importance, the critics have been mostly nonplussed about what they deem a rather standard biopic. So this will be no The Theory of Everything (which only made $35m), and its opening count of 33 theatres is problematic. Still, it could nab a few point this week and its expansion could lead to double digits in the box office. That might make it worth its $3-4 in BO if you have a gap to fill, and even might make it worth your while in Ultimate. But I suspect there’s a better pick this weekend.




Destroyer is Annapurna’s second film of this weekend. For a company losing money faster than public trust for Facebook, that’s slightly worrying. The film itself is Karyn Kusama’s next film after return-to-form The Invitation. Here, Nicole Kidman plays a hard-drinking, fucked up cop who tries to make amends with those involved in one of her old cases. Critics have generally liked the film’s harshness, praising Kidman’s performance. With Annapurna dealing with Vice’s wide release, chances are this will expand slowly across Jan, and with it coming out in a mere 3 theatres this weekend, expect it to nab the PTA crown. For $2/$4 in Ultimate you could see 7+ PTA points, a mid 6s IMDB, and possibly $5m in BO. That makes it worth a shot, although less so in BO.




Finally, Stan & Ollie (SPC) is another film starring John C Reilly, and another biopic, and another film with two names in its title. But in all cases it’s the weaker of the two. Despite starring Reilly and Steve Coogan as the comedy heroes, its faced a muted response since its debut in the London Film Festival this year. It feels like a bit of a dump, so depending on theatre count don’t expect much return from your $2-$4 in either game.


Predictions for the weekend

1. Aquaman - $45m
2. Mary Poppins Returns - $22m
3. Bumblebee - $18m
4. Holmes and Watson- $17m
5. Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse- $15m

PTA: Destroyer, OTBOS, Cold War, Aquaman, Stan and Ollie

That’s it for 2018. But its surprisingly titled sequel, 2019, will be back with a whimper as Tranny takes a look at horror flick Escape Room.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Vice: C+ (way below The Big Short's A- but above W.'s C from 2008)
Holmes and Watson: D+ (way behind Talladega Nights, Step Brothers, and Get Hard's B scores, also below both Guy Ritchie Sherlock Holmes films and even 1988's Without a Clue*)

* - Sherlock Holmes had a B, A Game of Shadows scored an A-, Without a Clue polled with a B+
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by Screen203 »

I don't think that Mary Poppins Returns will hold as well as The Greatest Showman did. The reactions of the audience coming out of The Greatest Showman were extremely positive. The crowd seemed less enthused at Mary Poppins Returns.
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by Shrykespeare »

2-day totals:

Holmes & Watson - $9.9M (2719 theaters)
Vice - $7.6M (2378)
On the Basis of Sex - $851K (33)
Destroyer - $44K (3)




Celebrity Birthdays:

Gerard Depardieu turned 70 on 12/27
John Legend turns 40 on 12/28
Jon Voight turns 80 on 12/29
Tyrese Gibson turns 40 on 12/30
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Aquaman, $51.5M
4 points - Mary Poppins Returns, $28.0M
3 points - Bumblebee, $20.5M
2 points - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, $18.3M
1 point - The Mule, $11.8M
Vice, $7.8M
Holmes & Watson, $7.3M
Second Act, $7.2M
Ralph Breaks the Internet, $6.5
Dr. Seuss' The Grinch, $4.2M



PTA:
5 points - On the Basis of Sex
4 points - Destroyer
3 points - Stan & Ollie
2 points - Aquaman
1 point - If Beale Street Could Talk
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Somewhere between Estimates and Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Aquaman, $52.1M (10)
4 points - Mary Poppins Returns, $28.0M (8)
3 points - Bumblebee, $20.9M (6)
2 points - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, $18.8M (9)
1 point - The Mule, $12.2M (6)
Vice, $7.8M
Holmes & Watson, $7.4M
Second Act, $7.4M
Ralph Breaks the Internet, $6.5M
Dr. Seuss' The Grinch, $4.2M



PTA:
5 points - On the Basis of Sex, $20,758 (5)
4 points - Destroyer, $19,491 (4)
3 points - Stan & Ollie, $15,621 (3)
2 points - Cold War, $14,777 (6)
1 point - Aquaman, $12,640 (4)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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