Walleye's Weekly Winners - Pre-Christmas Rush!

[Walleye413]

Snore! Uh, sorry, fell asleep there for about 2 weeks. In what was the most boring weekend of our league year a bunch of holdovers made the smart people who chose them very happy. Well, 3 out of 5 of those movies made their owners happy - the rest were kind of stinkers. On the PTA front Mary Queen of Scots and Vox Lux showed up, and The Favourite hung on. I remember recommending that one I think. Anyway, this week the studios remembered that people like seeing new movies, so they’re rushing out 6 films before next weekend gets even worse!

The big dog this weekend: Spidey. Now, I love Spiderman, I’ll even stand up and support Tobey Mopey Maguire. But 6 months ago I figured an animated Spidey would have been lost in the Christmas mess. Boy was 6 months ago me wrong. Spidey is going to win the weekend with 45 million opening, and 150 total. It’s got incredible reviews, and it will have 8 long legs. It would do even better than these numbers but Mary and Momoa are going to dominate next week. Still if you picked Spidey in any league, you have chosen wisely!

Coming in second is going to be Mortal Engines. At least, it has a shot at second place. In my opinion this is one of those books that should never have been turned into a movie. It works brilliantly in your mind. On screen it just looks preposterous. London on Wheels? That’s taking Brexit a little too far, dontcha think? Anyway - With all the talent behind this it won’t be the worst opener of the year, but it’s going to have a weak debut and then drop like a stone. I’ll predict 17 million for the opener and 40 million total. Don’t get harpooned into this one. Stay far - far away.

The Mule is a real wildcard this weekend. Clint can single handedly save a movie and a movie slate. Or, he can throw out an occasional dud with the best of them. I’ll admit I have no feel on this particular film. It seems to be in the “good” Clint wheelhouse. Almost has a Logan feel, in terms of the previews. So, it wouldn’t shock me at all if it starts around 20 million and lands somewhere near 100 million. And it wouldn’t shock me it if did half that. At $9-13 in some leagues it’s a risk worth taking.

Second Act is pure slate filler. J. Lo has quite a following and will promote this thing like crazy. Plus, it’ll turn a profit due to the long holiday legs and the fact that it’s the only Rom-Com in a season that used to be filled with them. In terms of the game, $7 isn’t a bad pick for this in Box Office. Ultimate it’ll get swamped so I’d stay away there. I figure 12 million opener, and the same 40 million total that Mortal Engines will get you for way more money.

On the speciality front we’ve got wildcards again.

The winner should be Beale Street. It’s got killer reviews, and an Oscar winner (If there were any justice in the world) in Regina King. But, it’s being distributed by Annapurna which has had some real challenges as of late. Is that going to affect it here? Maybe. It got 3 Golden Globe nominations which is a decent sign. But it’s not a frontrunner like The Favourite or Green Book. I do still think it’ll get you 5 PTA points, maybe a few more. But it’s Box Office prospects aren’t as great as I would have hoped. It’s a risk.

Equally intriguing is Capernaum the Oscar nominee from Lebanon. It’s got fantastic reviews and a killer IMDB score. It’ll earn a few PTA points maybe 2-3. At $2 in Ultimate this could be a steal. Best $2 option on the board so grab it if you need it.

That’s all from me for now. Enjoy the weekend of new movies. And get ready for the Faceoff you know you’ve been waiting for! Mary Poppins vs. Aquaman!

Top 5
Spiderman
Mortal Engines
The Mule
Ralph
The Grinch

PTA
Beale Street
Spiderman
Capernaum
The Mule
Mary Queen of Scots

[Buscemi2]

Second Act got pushed a week. It will get taken down by Mary Pop 'n' Fresh, Ass Whooping Aquaman, and Original Recipe Bumblebee but it should beat Steve Carell playing with his toys.

And I'm not so sure about The Mule. The fact that it wasn't screened to critics doesn't suggest much hope (but I already explained that in another thread).

[Shrykespeare]

Great column, Walleye.


Celebrity birthdays:

Dee Wallace turns 70 on 12/14 (wasn't she the mom in E.T.?)
Vanessa Hudgens turns 30 on 12/14 (High School Musical, 10th reunion maybe?)
Liv Ullman turns 80 on 12/16 (I know she was THE sexy European actress back in the 60's but damned if I could name one of her movies)
Anna Popplewell turns 30 on 12/16 (the cuter of the two Pevensie sisters, if you're wondering)

[Buscemi2]

Yes, Dee Wallace was the mom from E.T.

And Liv Ullmann did many a Bergman film. Scenes from a Marriage is one.

[numbersix]

Boosch, I think the lack of reviews of The Mule is for another reason, as you yourself suggested. It's to avoid the critics, but that doesn't mean it won't reach its audience. It's a bit of a wild card at the moment, but it could make anything from 50m to 80m across the hols.

As for Mortal engines, it's getting closer and closer to being DOA.

Top 5
1. Spiderman - 35m
2. The Mule - 16m
3. Mortal Engines - 10m
4. The Grinch - 9m
5. Ralph - 8m


PTA: Beale Street, Spiderman, Mary QOS, Capernaum, The Mule

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Surprised to see no mention of Once Upon a Deadpool here - was it available in the game?

SpiderVerse really is gonna wreck everything, isn't it?

1. Spider-Man - $60M
2. The Mule - $15M
3. Mortal Engines - $12M
4. Grinch - $10M
5. Ralph - $8M
- The Favourite - $6M
- Once Upon A Deadpool - $4M (I can't imagine anyone paying money to see this, even with the new scenes.)

[numbersix]

Think we all feel the same. Not many folk are interested, and in 500 theatres it's unlikely to cross the $1m mark.

[Screen203]

The Mule should do well. It's one of the only movies out aimed at adults.

Speaking of movies aimed at adults during the holidays, why is Second Act not being marketed? It seems like it could be a hit, but I haven't seen any advertising for it since the summer.

[Buscemi2]

I've seen a few trailers actually. On the other hand, there are a number of January titles I still haven't seen much of anything for (A Dog's Way Home, The Kid Who Would Be King, Miss Bala).

[Screen203]

I've seen a few trailers actually. On the other hand, there are a number of January titles I still haven't seen much of anything for (A Dog's Way Home, The Kid Who Would Be King, Miss Bala).

I've seen advertising for all three of those movies recently. I think the last time I saw a preview for Second Act was in August (I'm assuming because The Happytime Murders was distributed by STX).

[Brockster]

Deadpool 2 pulled in another 910K on Wednesday...I'll be happy to take another few million in the Draft!

[Buscemi2]

I don't think I've ever seen a group of people get so excited about three minutes of new footage, especially when a bunch of things got cut in the process.

Comic book fans are really foolish with their money.

[Walleye413]

Four words my friend: Fifty Shades - Extended Cut

[numbersix]

What an opening figure of Spiderman. Looks certain to open above $40m now.

[Chienfantome]

Indeed, $3.5M from the thursday shows alone, that's a very solid number from an animated film. It might go much higher than the predictions were thinking.