Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!
Posted: November 20th, 2018, 12:09 am
It's a busy week - so how about an early column
I feel like a little piece of my childhood is crumbling. The magic of Harry Potter waned quite a bit this past weekend, taking in a mere 62 million at the American Box Office this past weekend. While the movie will make a profit from worldwide sales - there will be much hand-wringing and second guessing over the missteps of Fantastic Beasts and look Dumbledore is in this one! It was a fairly disappointing weekend all around however as the well loved Instant Family came in on the low end of expectations, to be followed by the much less loved and worse received Widows. Even Green Book failed to make a splash - although there’s some hope for that one over the 5 day coming up. The Grinch held well - but will it hold up against the power of every single Disney Princess alive?? Oh, his little heart can grow all it wants but it won’t withstand Ralph and the ladies.
Ralph Breaks the Internet is our big gun this week one of the 4-5 anchor movies you could choose in this season. Mary Poppins is clearly the best one coming, and Aquaman seems to be gaining traction. But for many of us it was really a debate between the Grinch, Fantastic Beasts, and Ralph for your slates. If you chose the Grinch I think you chose wisely. If you waited until Ralph - well I think it’ll do better than the aforementioned FB, but it won’t be a sure-fire slate winner. I loved the original Ralph, but it’s important to remember it “only” made 189 million. Sure, sequels will often go bigger, but in animated fare that’s not always the case, and I think that’s possibly what we’ve got here. The crowds will be ever so slightly bigger as I predict a 3 day of 55 million (5 day of 80 million) as this one caps out just under 200 million. That’ll still mean a lot of PTA and Top 5 points due to the lack of competition for the next several weeks. But after a record-breaking October all these November offerings seem a little meh.
A much better option might be Creed 2. I will say I loved, yes loved, the first Creed. The direction by Ryan Coogler is genius, and Michael B Jordan is a star. Throw in Sly Stallone doing some of his best work, plus Tessa Thompson, come on. Creed surprised with a 100+ million haul, so expectations on this one are higher than the original, although still a little muted I think for such a property. Maybe that’s because Coogler isn’t directing (seriously, so disappointed when I heard that.) But I think the good will of the last one - plus Drago(!) will be enough to make this one of the few surprise hits of November. Creed 2 will get you 35 million over the 3 day, 45ish million for the 5 day. And should clear 100 million with some decent legs. Add on some decent PTA and top 5 numbers, I’d say this is about as good a mid-level pick that you’ll find in the game.
Can we talk about Robin Hood? Is anything ever going to be better than Kevin Costner and the best supporting cast outside of Sherwood Forrest? Nope. This entry from Taron Egerton isn’t going to do it. Boy, at some point someone is going to figure out how to reboot Camelot/Robin Hood/Zorro/etc. But dang it sure hasn’t happened lately. Avoid this bomb on it’s way to a 10 million dollar 3 day - low teens for 5 day, and not much else. Bummer.
Expanding wide you’ve got Front Runner and Green Book. If you already have them on your slates - too bad. They’re not going to do well. Sorry. I really am too, I think I picked both of them.
In limited release we’ve got several decent options. My luck on the PTA front has been abysmal lately so word to wise, everything I suggest you should do the exact opposite!
Like don’t pick The Favourite. Because the latest from Yorgos Lanthimos (say that 10 times fast) is going to be the Indie darling of the weekend. More accessible than The Lobster and the Killing of the Sacred Deer, this will clean up this weekend and next before it starts to expand in hopes of some Oscar love. At $5 in most leagues it’ll cost you, but it’ll be worth it. I’ve grabbed it with both hands.
Equally tempting will be Shoplifters - Japan’s pick for Oscar noms this year. A very original tale about a family of shoplifters (hence the title) that take in an abandoned teenager seems terribly unique for the genre. It’s cheap, and on only a few screens. The IMDB score rocks, and it’ll get a few PTA for sure. Someone should take this.
Becoming Astrid is a Swedish language film about the author of Pippi Longstocking (as well as other books). I fully expect Shryke to choose this movie and if he doesn’t I’ll be sorely disappointed. It looks quite lovely, has a great IMDB score as well, and is pretty darn cheap in the game. I’m picking Astrid as the odd woman out - which means it’s destined for greatness. Join Shryke - pick this movie.
That’s all for now. Next week there’s nothing. Garbage. We can re-run this column and see how bad I was.
Top 5
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Creed 2
Fantastic Beasts
The Grinch
Instant Family
PTA
The Favourite
Ralph
Shoplifters
Creed 2
Becoming Astrid
I feel like a little piece of my childhood is crumbling. The magic of Harry Potter waned quite a bit this past weekend, taking in a mere 62 million at the American Box Office this past weekend. While the movie will make a profit from worldwide sales - there will be much hand-wringing and second guessing over the missteps of Fantastic Beasts and look Dumbledore is in this one! It was a fairly disappointing weekend all around however as the well loved Instant Family came in on the low end of expectations, to be followed by the much less loved and worse received Widows. Even Green Book failed to make a splash - although there’s some hope for that one over the 5 day coming up. The Grinch held well - but will it hold up against the power of every single Disney Princess alive?? Oh, his little heart can grow all it wants but it won’t withstand Ralph and the ladies.
Ralph Breaks the Internet is our big gun this week one of the 4-5 anchor movies you could choose in this season. Mary Poppins is clearly the best one coming, and Aquaman seems to be gaining traction. But for many of us it was really a debate between the Grinch, Fantastic Beasts, and Ralph for your slates. If you chose the Grinch I think you chose wisely. If you waited until Ralph - well I think it’ll do better than the aforementioned FB, but it won’t be a sure-fire slate winner. I loved the original Ralph, but it’s important to remember it “only” made 189 million. Sure, sequels will often go bigger, but in animated fare that’s not always the case, and I think that’s possibly what we’ve got here. The crowds will be ever so slightly bigger as I predict a 3 day of 55 million (5 day of 80 million) as this one caps out just under 200 million. That’ll still mean a lot of PTA and Top 5 points due to the lack of competition for the next several weeks. But after a record-breaking October all these November offerings seem a little meh.
A much better option might be Creed 2. I will say I loved, yes loved, the first Creed. The direction by Ryan Coogler is genius, and Michael B Jordan is a star. Throw in Sly Stallone doing some of his best work, plus Tessa Thompson, come on. Creed surprised with a 100+ million haul, so expectations on this one are higher than the original, although still a little muted I think for such a property. Maybe that’s because Coogler isn’t directing (seriously, so disappointed when I heard that.) But I think the good will of the last one - plus Drago(!) will be enough to make this one of the few surprise hits of November. Creed 2 will get you 35 million over the 3 day, 45ish million for the 5 day. And should clear 100 million with some decent legs. Add on some decent PTA and top 5 numbers, I’d say this is about as good a mid-level pick that you’ll find in the game.
Can we talk about Robin Hood? Is anything ever going to be better than Kevin Costner and the best supporting cast outside of Sherwood Forrest? Nope. This entry from Taron Egerton isn’t going to do it. Boy, at some point someone is going to figure out how to reboot Camelot/Robin Hood/Zorro/etc. But dang it sure hasn’t happened lately. Avoid this bomb on it’s way to a 10 million dollar 3 day - low teens for 5 day, and not much else. Bummer.
Expanding wide you’ve got Front Runner and Green Book. If you already have them on your slates - too bad. They’re not going to do well. Sorry. I really am too, I think I picked both of them.
In limited release we’ve got several decent options. My luck on the PTA front has been abysmal lately so word to wise, everything I suggest you should do the exact opposite!
Like don’t pick The Favourite. Because the latest from Yorgos Lanthimos (say that 10 times fast) is going to be the Indie darling of the weekend. More accessible than The Lobster and the Killing of the Sacred Deer, this will clean up this weekend and next before it starts to expand in hopes of some Oscar love. At $5 in most leagues it’ll cost you, but it’ll be worth it. I’ve grabbed it with both hands.
Equally tempting will be Shoplifters - Japan’s pick for Oscar noms this year. A very original tale about a family of shoplifters (hence the title) that take in an abandoned teenager seems terribly unique for the genre. It’s cheap, and on only a few screens. The IMDB score rocks, and it’ll get a few PTA for sure. Someone should take this.
Becoming Astrid is a Swedish language film about the author of Pippi Longstocking (as well as other books). I fully expect Shryke to choose this movie and if he doesn’t I’ll be sorely disappointed. It looks quite lovely, has a great IMDB score as well, and is pretty darn cheap in the game. I’m picking Astrid as the odd woman out - which means it’s destined for greatness. Join Shryke - pick this movie.
That’s all for now. Next week there’s nothing. Garbage. We can re-run this column and see how bad I was.
Top 5
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Creed 2
Fantastic Beasts
The Grinch
Instant Family
PTA
The Favourite
Ralph
Shoplifters
Creed 2
Becoming Astrid