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Friday Estimates

Fantastic Beasts, $25.7M
The Grinch, $8.9M
Instant Family, $4.5M
Bohemian Rhapsody, $4.2M
Widows, $4.2M
A Star is Born, $1.1M
The Nutcracker, $1.1M
Overlord, $1.1M



Weekend Projections:

Fantastic Beasts, $63M
The Grinch, $37.5M
Bohemian Rhapsody, $15.7M
Instant Family, $14M
Widows, $12M
The Nutcracker, $4.8M
A Star is Born, $4.2M
Overlord, $3.6M
Girl in the Spider's Web, $2.5M
Nobody's Fool, $2.2M



PTA:
Fantastic Beasts, $15K
Green Book, $11K
The Grinch, $9K

numbersix wrote:I suspect the Widows Cinemascore is due to the tendency to sell arthouse films with thriller aspects as straight thrillers, inevitably disappoitning audiences. Killing Them Softly did not deserve an F cinemascore

You're not entirely off base as Widows has a much slower pace and far less action than a traditional heist movie. However, I honestly think it's more of a genre thing. Nearly every adult-aimed crime/mystery thriller (White Boy Rick, Bad Times at the El Royale, The Girl in the Spider's Web, Sicario 2, Red Sparrow) that's been released this year has also ended up with a "bad" exit polling score (B or B-). Absolutely no idea why this is the case, but it'll be an interesting trend to monitor moving forward.

The issue with those is that a lot of them simply weren't marketable, which is bound to make it difficult for an audience to like something they really weren't all that excited about in the first place and simply went on a vague hook (either an actor or concept, for example). White Boy Rick spent time on the shelf and became a throwaway title for Sony after they ended their deal with its producer, Bad Times at the El Royale had a premise that's box office poison, The Girl in the Spider's Web was years too late and didn't have Fincher involved, Sicario didn't need a sequel (also, no Villeneuve, who's developing a following similar to Fincher), and Red Sparrow only appealed to a vocal minority of Lawrence's fans.

I think it's less an audience thing and more studios having a complete disconnect with audiences. Studios have held onto to trends that existed four or five years ago (80's nostalgia, Purge-inspired murderfests, inspirational spacemen, military vs. aliens, hyping up every generic white actor as the next big thing) while ignoring the successes of films like Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians, and the latest Halloween. The film industry has worried about Netflix taking over but Netflix isn't the problem. It's Hollywood's reluctance to move beyond what was popular in 2014 in Texas and China.

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald, $62.2M
4 points - Dr. Seuss' The Grinch, $38.2M
3 points - Bohemian Rhapsody, $15.7M
2 points - Instant Family, $14.7M
1 point - Widows, $12.3M
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, $4.7M
A Star is Born, $4.3M
Overlord, $3.8M
The Girl in the Spider's Web, $2.5M
Nobody's Fool, $2.3M



PTA:
5 points - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald
4 points - Green Book
3 points - Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
2 points - Instant Family
1 point - Widows




Observations/Predictions:

1. Fantastic Beasts two opens with an OW $12M less than its precedessor. I'm unconvinced it has the oomph to reach $200M.

2. The Grinch crosses $125M in its second weekend. Given the lack of kiddie fare besides Ralph and Mary Poppins, this one should have enough to reach $200M.

3. I'm pegging Bohemian Rhapsody for $160M.

4. The Nutcracker will end up with $50M. Yikes.

5. A Star is Born will easily crack $190M. $200M? Only if it gets a shit-ton of Oscar noms.

Another observation: Green Book's PTA doesn't look too healthy for a flick released in 25 theatres. Universal are really going to have to push this film for award if its going to make any dough.

A Star is Born will be back for Oscar season. IMAX screens have an opening between Glass and Alita.

As for Green Book, the limited run was a very last minute decision. It's more than likely still opening on Wednesday in most potential audiences' minds.

Green Book numbers are quite disappointing. Unless word of mouth is expcetional, it won't get as far as we had hoped for.

I have absolutely no doubt A Star is Born will reach 200M. It probably would even without the certainty it's gonna be a big awards season candidate, but the fact it's one of the favourite for the awards rush, we all know Warner is gonna re-release it later in the seaason, and the film will cash in more once it starts getting many noms and awards.

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald, $62.2M (5)
4 points - Dr. Seuss' The Grinch, $38.6M (9)
3 points - Bohemian Rhapsody, $16.0M (12)
2 points - Instant Family, $14.5M (2)
1 point - Widows, $12.5M (1)
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, $4.8M
A Star is Born, $4.3M
Overlord, $3.8M
The Girl in the Spider's Web, $2.5M
Nobody's Fool, $2.2M



PTA:
5 points - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald, $14,932 (5)
4 points - Green Book, $12,817 (4)
3 points - Dr. Seuss' The Grinch, $9,318 (8)
2 points - Instant Family, $4,414 (2)
1 point - Widows, $4,410 (1) HOLY SHIT THAT'S CLOSE!!


The Last Race did not report.

One child's admission probably made the difference.

Or maybe it was a student discount. I'm sure the high schoolers love Marky Mark.

Woah, have we ever seen a PTA that close?

The Last Race did report in the end. You just have to scroll down the BOM page a lot before you get to it.

When I went to the theater a couple weeks ago I saw a high school/college age kid at the kiosk buying a senior ticket. That guy probably made the difference.