TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 11/9

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BanksIsDaFuture
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TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 11/9

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

QUEEN reigns supreme, while Disney stumbles yet again.

Fox's trouble production Bohemian Rhapsody overcame director changes, lead actor changes, and script differences to open huge this weekend, as $51M worth of Queen-obsessives bumrushed theaters. A great star to the month, and due to the rave reviews for star Rami Malek, Rhapsody shouldn't have much problems hitting $150M when all's said and done.

Not so good news for the 2nd place finisher, as Disney's weird-ass The Nutcracker And The Four Realms opened to only $20M - which wouldn't be awful, except that its budget is far north of $100M. Its the 3rd underperformer of the year for the Mouse House, after A Wrinkle In Time in March and Solo in May. With The Grinch this week, Nutcracker should fall fast and hard and most likely will be out of most theaters by Thanksgiving.

In 3rd place, comedy It-Girl Tiffany Haddish proved that even she's not enough to elevate a Tyler Perry branded film in this day and age. Nobody's Fool only opened to $13M, which is his lowest opening weekend since 2014's Single Mom's Club. It was Perry's 2nd film this year, after March's Acrimony, and he has A Madea Funeral next March - so at least he's not deterred by the diminishing box office returns?

In the PTA field, the obvious winner Boy, Erased took home the crown prize of 5 points, and A Private War came in 2nd, edging out Bohemian Rhapsody. The rest....don't matter, probably.

This week in wide release...

Dr. Suess' The Grinch - Universal and their in-home animation arm, Illumination, looks to continue dominating the cartoon marketplace with the newest version of the Christmas classic, The Grinch. Illumination is 8 for 8 since 2010, when they burst onto the scene with Despicable Me ($56M/$251M) - (we'll count Hop as a hit as it did cross $100M). The French animators have tapped Benedict Cumberbatch to voice this iteration of The Mean Green - and their win streak won't be stopping this year.

Dr. Suess' The Grinch is the first major holiday movie of the season and the first real option for families this season (nobody is counting whatever the hell Nutcracker was) and it's open as such. It should open to at least $70M and have great drops throughout the next month or so on its way to $260M, and garnering 18 Top 5 points and about 6 PTA points. It may be the best anchor for any slate this month.



The Girl In The Spider's Web: A New Dragon Tattoo Story - Now what the hell is this? Sony decided to dust off the 7 year old IP they had with The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo - only to find that none of the original cast or crew wanted anything to do with this spin-off (not a sequel, as it has nothing to do with Dragon Tattoo). No David Fincher, no Rooney Mara, no Daniel Craig - they've all been replaced with pale imitations. Now we've got The Evil Dead remake director Fede Alvarez stepping into the chair behind the camera and star of Netflix's The Queen, Claire Foy, becoming the new Lisbeth.

The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo was a hit back in 2011, but it hasn't aged well and I can't think many were clamoring for this quasi-spinoff. Opening against a giant animated film and in a marketplace with the four-quadrant Bohemian Rhapsody, Spider's Web isn't expected to come close to Fincher's original. It will open to about $15M and close at $40M, while gaining 4 Top 5 points and maybe a PTA point, if it's lucky.



Overlord - Paramount decided to counter-program the holiday season with a Nazi zombie horror/thriller, as you do. They're opening the J.J. Abrams-produced, mid-budgeted zombie/infected horror in November (instead of October, as was originally planned) in about 2,800 theaters. Overlord stars mostly no-name actors - with the exception of Wyatt Russell, son of Kurt & Goldie Hawn - and has really focused its marketing on the Nazi zombie aspect. Enough so that it's being referred to as the Call of Duty: Zombies movies around the Internet.

While its premise is intriguing and I'll personally be there in theaters, it's not expected to light the box office alight. Expectations have it opening to about $10M and topping out at $28M. Plot-heavy thrillers, like A Quiet Place or Halloween, or "prestige horrors", such as The VVitch or Hereditary, have been the flavor of horror that audiences have responded to in the past year or two; so something as simplistic as "zombies in WWII" seems out of date these days. Luckily, it's small budget will let Paramount make its money mostly through secondary markets - but for our game, it's something that's not worth the price tag.



This week in limited release...

The Front Runner - Sony decided to open their Presidential campaign drama, The Front Runner, on Election Day this week - which seems like a gimmick that hasn't paid off. The Front Runner is the true story of Gary Hart, who was the frontrunner to become President in 1988 before the scandal of his cheating on his wife completely derailed his political career for good. Starring Hugh Jackman, this Jason Reitman film was thought to be in deep discussion come Oscar time; however, reviews haven't been kind and its sitting at only 64% on RT currently. In its first two days, it was only able to grab a $2K PTA, which won't be enough to grab a single point this month.

Unfortunately, due to its dumb release schedule, it's too late to change your mind on whether its worth of a spot on your slate. So while I think it will whiff on PTA past this weekend (maybe grabbing 2-3), feel free to ignore me. :)

Narcissister Organ Player - Now this...is an animated documentary from performance artist Narcissister (?) that explores sexual fetishism as they related to race and gender stereotypes. So. That's a thing. We still don't have a concrete theater count, although it was supposed to open on Wednesday, but if it did, it didn't report any box office. It's from Film Movement, an incredibly small, niche distributor that's never opened a film into double digit theaters. So while its count is sure to be less than 5, I can't imagine it grabbing more than 1-2 PTA points total.

El Angel - This Argentinean true story crime drama may be the surprise limited opening this week - it tells the story of a young boy who embarks on a journey of crime, along with his good friend, as they pass from their teen years into adulthood together. It was up for the Un Certain Regard Award at this year's Cannes, and is currently sitting at a nice 82% on Rotten Tomatoes. It's compared to both Goodfellas and Bonnie & Clyde in reviews, so it's definitely the front-runner of this week's limited releases, at least quality wise.

The Orchard hasn't released a theater count yet, but their last 4 limiteds have open to single digit theaters. So if it follows that trend, El Angel should be the pick this week. Grab it.

Weekend Predictions:

1. Dr. Suess' The Grinch - $70M
2. Bohemian Rhapsody - $26M
3. The Girl In The Spider's Web - $15M
4. Overlord - $10M
5. The Nutcracker & The Four Realms - $9M

PTA: The Grinch, The Front Runner, El Angel, Boy Erased, A Private War

Next week, UDM will take on the latest Harry Potter installment, the action movie follow-up to 12 Years A Slave, and Mark Wahlberg's latest foray into gentle family comedies.
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife

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Shrykespeare
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 11/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch - 4,141
The Girl in the Spider's Web - 2,929
Overlord - 2,859
The Front Runner - 4

Beautiful Boy - 777



Next week:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald - 4,000+
Instant Family - 3,000
Widows - 3,000
Green Book - 25




Celebrity Birthdays

Robert "T-1000" Patrick turned 60 on 11/5
Sam Rockwell turned 50 on 11/5
Emma Stone turned 30 on 11/6
Parker Posey turned 50 on 11/8
Analeigh Tipton turned 30 11/9
Ennio Morricone turns 90 on 11/10
Tracy Morgan turns 50 on 11/10
Eve (singer) turns 40 on 11/10
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Shrykespeare
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 11/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

The Grinch, $18.6M
Bohemian Rhapsody, $8.5M
Overlord, $3.7M
Spider's Web, $3M
The Nutcracker, $2.4M
A Star is Born, $2.3M
Nobody's Fool, $1.8M
Venom, $1.3M
Halloween, $1.1M



Weekend Projections

The Grinch, $65M
Bohemian Rhapsody, $28.2M
The Nutcracker, $9.5M
Overlord, $9M
Spider's Web, $8.3M
A Star is Born, $7.9M
Nobody's Fool, $5.9M
Venom, $4.8M
Halloween, $3.6M
The Hate U Give, $2.1M



PTA:
The Grinch, $15.7K
Front Runner, $10.5K
Boy Erased, $9K
Bohemian Rhapsody, $7K
A Private War, $5.2K



Venom has cracked $200M. A Star is Born still has an outside chance.

Halloween will probably top out at $165M.

Bohemian Rhapsody will hit $100M on Tuesday.

Smallfoot cracked $80M.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Shrykespeare
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 11/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Dr. Seuss' The Grinch, $66.0M
4 points - Bohemian Rhapsody, $30.5M
3 points - Overlord, $10.1M
2 points - The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, $9.6M
1 point - The Girl in the Spider's Web, $8.0M
A Star is Born, $8.0M
Nobody's Fool, $6.5M
Venom, $4.8M
Halloween, $3.8M
The Hate U Give, $2.1M



5 points - Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
4 points - The Front Runner
3 points - El Angel
2 points - Boy Erased
1 point - Bohemian Rhapsody
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Shrykespeare
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 11/9

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Dr. Seuss' The Grinch, $67.6M (5)
4 points - Bohemian Rhapsody, $31.2M (9)
3 points - Overlord, $10.2M (3)
2 points - The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, $10.1M (6)
1 point - A Star is Born, $8.1M (19)
The Girl in the Spider's Web, $7.8M
Nobody's Fool, $6.6M
Venom, $4.9M
Halloween, $4.0M
The Hate U Give, $2.0M



PTA:
5 points - Dr. Seuss' The Grinch, $16,318 (5)
4 points - The Front Runner, $12,886 (4)
3 points - El Angel, $11,674 (3)
2 points - Boy Erased, $9,846 (7)
1 point - Bohemian Rhapsody, $7,800 (6)


I'll update the leagues tomorrow. I had a biopsy today and feel like shit.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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