Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/2

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/2

Post by transformers2 »

Halloween SZN continues....

David Gordon Green's direct sequel to John Carpenter's 1976 classic easily topped the BO for a second consecutive weekend with a $31.4 mil haul (58% drop). While tonight will likely mark the end of its uncontested dominance, people have flocked to see Michael Myers and Laurie Strode duke it out at an impressive rate ($128.5 mil through its first 10 days of release) and it has a realistic chance of becoming Blumhouse's highest-grossing production to-date by the time its run is over.

In addition to about 2 dozen residents of Haddonfield, Illinois, Michael Myers also murdered the weekend's lone wide opener's chances of succeeding. Gerard Butler, Common and Gary Oldman were left saying mayday as Hunter Killer got torpedoed into Davy Jones' Locker with a less-than-ideal $6.6 mil opening(that was for you Walleye). Somewhere at a secluded home for retired thespians, Sean Connery and Gene Hackman are laughing at these whippersnappers paltry attempt to impede on their nautical adventure turf.

The only other non-holdover to put together a notable weekend was Suspiria. Luca Guadagnino's remake of Dario Argento's cult classic posted the highest PTA of the year to-date by grossing a ridiculous $184,037 in 2 theaters. That success is unlikely to translate to its 250-theater expansion this week, so anything more than 1-2 PTA points for this arthouse horror flick seems like a longshot.


Wide Releases:
Music-themed movies truly are all the rage right now. The Greatest Showman, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again and A Star is Born have all enjoyed long, successful runs at the box office within the last 11 months. Freddie Mercury/Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) should be able to continue this hot streak. Queen is one of the most recognizable musical acts of all-time, Fox has arguably pushed this harder than anything else on their slate this year that didn't involve the Merc with a Mouth, Rami Malek's performance as Mercury has already received a ton of praise and every outlet that claims to have a firm grasp on the pulse of the people has cited this as one of the most anticipated movies of the fall. Factor in the public's aforementioned appetite for rousing escapist fare driven by show-stopping musical numbers and you have about as safe of a formula for a hit as you can possibly have in the always erratic modern BO climate. As long as the WOM is strong enough to overcome the mixed reviews (it should be), I think this should have no problem clearing $140 mil.
Prediction: $44 mil OW/4-6 PTA/10-14 Top 5/mid-to-high 7 IMDb/$140-$170 mil total BO
Price (Nov-Jan): $20 ULT/$19 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Absolutely

There is so much family flare coming out in November that there's bound to be an underachiever in the bunch. Despite Disney's best efforts to position this is as a bold reimagining of a timeless holiday classic, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney) seems like its going to be it. It may have an impressive ensemble cast (Mackenzie Foy, Keira Knightley, Helen Mirren, Morgan Freeman, Eugenio Derbez) and utilize the dark fairy tale vibe that has helped yield countless number of hits for the studio in the past, but to be honest, I'm convinced that a lot of kids don't even what the hell the Nutcracker is. There's no beloved, classic cartoon that's been passed on from generation to generation to refer to and plenty of young parents will have nightmares of being exposed to the ballet version as a kid and avoid this shit like the holiday fruitcake your great aunt Eunice insists on bring to Christmas dinner. The Disney insignia and vibrant color pallet will prevent it from completely bombing, but I'd be stunned if The Grinch and Ralph Breaks the Internet don't pummel it into oblivion.
Prediction: $23 mil OW/0-2 PTA/6-8 Top 5/low-to-mid 6 IMDb/$65-85 mil total BO
Price (Nov-Jan): $16 ULT/$16 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate: Leaning Towards No

It seems like every time Tyler Perry puts out a movie it gets lowballed. Well, I'm not joining that damn cult!Nobody's Fool (Paramount) is in an excellent position to shock and awe the people that continue to underestimate Mr. Perry. His loyal fanbase all but guarantees an opening in the mid-to-high teens and the prospect of a more comedic tone than he usually employs could allow for more crossover appeal than his films usually get. Plus if a soapy woman scorned drama like Acrimony can pull in a $17 mil opening, why can't a broadish romantic comedy with a larger volume of recognizable names (Tiffany Haddish, Whoopi Goldberg, Tika Sumpter, Omari Hardwick) do at least as well? It clearly will be frontloaded as hell like the bulk of Perry's work, but I wouldn't be surprised if it flirted with a $20 mil opening.
Prediction: $18 mil OW/1-3 PTA/3-5 Top 5/mid-to-high 5 IMBD/$45-55 mil total BO
Price (Nov-Jan): $9 BO/$7 ULT
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Possibly!!!!

Limited Releases:
November marks the month where awards season mania start to hit a fever pitch. The most prominent contender hitting theaters this weekend is Boy Erased (Focus). Joel Edgerton's sophomore directorial effort centers around a young gay man (Lucas Hedges) who is forced into a conversion therapy program after his Baptist parents (Russell Crowe, Nicole Kidman) discover his sexuality. While the merely good reviews (84%, 68 Metascore) and lack of overwhelming festival buzz has significantly reduced its odds of being a major player in this year's crowded, pretty much deadlocked awards field, this fact-based drama remains in a good position to perform well. Focus has an excellent track record of platforming releases, the story is as timely and resonant as ever and above all, its got a couple of weeks to itself on the limited marketplace before the more serious contenders arrive on the scene. It may have not have the ceiling of some of the titles slated for release later in the month (The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk), but it's definitely worth a look in both formats.
Prediction 7-10 PTA/low-to-mid 7 IMDb/$5-15 mil total BO
Price (Nov-Jan): $4 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Yep

I feel kind of bad for A Private War (Aviron). American war corespondent Marie Colvin is a fascinating figure and the relatively small faction of critics that have seen this biopic seem to think director Matthew Heineman and writer Arash Amel did her story justice. However, Aviron is a small studio that specializes in mid-tier wide releases (Strangers: Prey at Night is the only other title they've released this year) who doesn't have the juice to go toe-to-toe with juggernauts like Focus and Fox Searchlight. A desirable theater count (4) should be enough for it land a couple of PTA points this weekend, but I'd be surprised if it didn't flame out as soon as it expands.
Price (Nov-Jan): $3 ULT/$1 BO
Prediction: 2-3 PTA/mid-to-high 6 IMDB/$1.5-4 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Probably Not

This could just be the PTSD from my particularly awful American Chaos prediction talking, but Maria by Callas (Sony Classics) seems like a non-starter. While it's not an apples-to-apples comparison, Whitney was a similarly well-reviewed documentary that utilized a similar compilation format to tell the story of a singer whose life was marred by tragedy failed to make a splash at the box office. To say that opera singer Maria Callas is no Whitney Houston would be an understatement. Callas died in 1977 and opera is about as niche as you can possibly get in 2018, so I don't expect this to be able to find much of an audience.

Prediction: 0-1 PTA/high 6-to-low 7 IMDB/less than $200k BO
Price (Nov-Jan): $2 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Nope

Weekend Projections:
1.Bohemian Rhapsody $44 mil
2.The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $23 mil
3.Nobody's Fool $18 mil
4.Halloween $12 mil
5.A Star is Born $11 mil

PTA: Boy Erased, Bohemian Rhapsody, Nobody's Fool, A Private War, Suspiria

Tune in next week when Banks breaks down a Christmas-hating legend making his return to the big screen, Lisbeth Salander's great vigilante adventure, the live-action Nazi Zombies movie Call of Duty fans probably never expected they'd get and a look back at a simpler time when infidelity was enough to derail a presidential campaign.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

Maria by Callas will do well in the big cities. Fathom Events does a killing with opera (when they aren't forcing their conservativism onto theatres) and Callas has legend status among the opera community. Also, I recall that it got good word out of the festivals. Probably not a bad pick for $2.

Meanwhile, I've only seen a poster for A Private War. Had a company like Bleecker Street or IFC gotten this one, it would have more of a chance.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/2

Post by numbersix »

I'd be with ya on the Queen movie prediction, but those reviews will really affect Freddie's legs. Reviews affect older audiences more than any other group, and so this should open well but it won't be like A Star is Born.

I hate nuts. I hate crackers. The Nutcracker definitely isn't for me. Good call on that.

You're too high on Tyler Perry. His comedies outside of Madea are very hit and miss, more miss of late.

I do agree with Boosch, though. Callas is one of the biggest opera names of all time, and while that's niche, 2-4 theatres in NY and LA may result in a high opening PTA.

Weekend Projections:
1.Bohemian Rhapsody $40 mil
2.The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $22 mil
3.Nobody's Fool $14 mil
4.Halloween $13 mil
5.A Star is Born $10 mil

PTA: Boy Erased, Bohemian Rhapsody, Maria by Callas, Suspiria, A Private War

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Bohemian Rhapsody - 4,000
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 3,766
Nobody's Fool - 2,468
Maria By Callas - 16
Boy Erased - 5
A Private War - 4



Next week:

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch - 4,000
The Girl in the Spider's Web - 3,000
Overlord - 2,500




Only one celebrity birthday:

Kate Jackson turned 70 on 10/29 (one of the ORIGINAL Charlie's Angels)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Bohemian Rhapsody, $18.4M
The Nutcracker, $5.6M
Nobody's Fool, $4.8M
Halloween, $3.3M
A Star is Born, $3.1M
Venom, $2.0M
Hunter Killer, $1.0M




Weekend Projections:

Bohemian Rhapsody, $46M
The Nutcracker, $18.5M
Nobody's Fool, $13.5M
Halloween, $10.8M
A Star is Born, $10.2M
Venom, $7M
Hunter Killer, $3.5M
Goosebumps 2, $3.4M
The Hate U Give, $3.3M
Smallfoot, $2.9M



PTA:
A Private War, $15K
Bohemian Rhapsody, $11.5K
Nobody's Fool, $5.5K
The Nutcracker, $5K
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, $5K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Bohemian Rhapsody, $50.0M
4 points - The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, $20.0M
3 points - Nobody's Fool, $14.0M
2 points - A Star is Born, $11.1M
1 point - Halloween, $11.0M
Venom, $7.8M
Smallfoot, $3.8M
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, $3.7M
Hunter Killer, $3.5M
The Hate U Give, $3.4M



PTA:
5 points - Boy Erased, $44K
4 points - A Private War, $18K
3 points - Bohemian Rhapsody, $12.5K
2 points - Burning, $9.6K
1 point - Maria By Callas, $9.5K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Bohemian Rhapsody, $51.1M (5)
4 points - The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, $20.4M (4)
3 points - Nobody's Fool, $13.7M (3)
2 points - A Star is Born, $11.0M (18)
1 point - Halloween, $10.8M (11)
Venom, $7.9M
Smallfoot, $3.9M
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, $3.8M
Hunter Killer, $3.5M
The Hate U Give, $3.4M



PTA:
5 points - Boy Erased, $41,411 (5)
4 points - A Private War, $15,123 (4)
3 points - Bohemian Rhapsody, $12,765 (3)
2 points - Burning, $9,039 (5)
1 point - Maria By Callas, $5,745 (1)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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