Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye413
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Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

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The lamest week in October. This has been a record breaking month, almost 2 months actually going back to The Nun in September. And what do I get? Hunter Killer.

Last week saw the ridiculousness of the 2018 Box Office continue with 76 million for the 76th Halloween sequel. Although this one was special because it had Jamie Lee Curtis. I mean we had that in 2002. And 1998. But whatever, this one was special. At least a lot of people thought so. A Star is Born continued to impress with 19 million and a second place. And, anecdotally, this is the movie that everyone I know has told me I need to go see. Remember that when it gets a ton of Oscar noms. Mid-90’s convincingly earned top PTA honors, kicking Melissa McCarthy while she’s still recovering from Puppet Pals Semi-porn. All in all, a pretty remarkable weekend last week. Which makes this week an even bigger downer.

The biggest movie of the week stars Gerard Butler of Phantom of the Opera, and Gary Oldman of Bram Stoker’s Dracula (those were their biggest hits, right?) in a movie that must have been made in the 90’s. I mean I love a good Submarine movie. Crimson Tide, Hunt for Red October. Heck U-571 wasn’t bad. But in 2018 I’m surprised this got greenlight. Perhaps this gets to what Boosh has been saying - no one can resist the 90’s right now. Hunter Killer has a preposterous plot that the Americans are going to save the Russian President. Like we have a secret soft spot for him or something? So this Submarine team and a bunch of Navy Seals somehow risk WW3 by nearly starting WW3. Butler has surprised before with his “Fallen” movies, but don’t get fooled. This movie is going to tank. Even with 2700 theatres I’ll predict 8 million on its way to the high teens. A couple of Top 5 points, and that’s all she wrote. That’s a hard pass.

The next biggest opener this week is Indivisible - another Christian marketed movie in 700+ theatres. As this is my world, I usually get a decent gauge on the potential for these movies, but I’ve got no feel on this one. I’ve heard it advertised a fair amount on Christian radio, and the cast is actually above average. Sarah Drew in particular has been wonderful (loved her in Everwood). But the plot feels a little too “been there, done that” for even this target audience I’m guessing. With I Can Only Imagine or Miracles from Heaven there was at least some twist to a familiar story. Don’t expect those kind of returns here. You might get 5-8 million total on this one after a 1 million opener. No top 5, no PTA, Probably not a very good IMDB rating with all the down-voting that will likely happen. It’s another pass.

As is Johnny English. If this were an international game this might be a sleeper pick, but here in the good ol U.S. of A. Johnny’s third go around is getting a meager 500 theatres. This is not your first rodeo, you know that number is the kiss of death, no matter how much you love Mr. Bean. It’ll be a tight race to see who make more - Johnny or Indivisble. But that’s the only interesting thing about this battle. I’m predicting slighlty less for English on this side of the pond. 6 million total. Zip, Zilch, and not much in all categories but IMDB. Pass.

If you believe America hasn’t had enough horror you could pick up Suspiria. For anyone tired of looking at the outside of Dakota Johnson, now you can apparently see her insides too! This is not my kind of movie, I’ll have to admit, but it’s tempting in the game. It’s got buzz (good or bad doesn’t really matter) and is supposedly just on 2 screens? That’s potential. There was some rumor about it going wide at some point too. If you’re feeling risky, you could grab it and ride it to gory glory! It’s got a shot at some PTA love, and that BO is tempting if it expands. Still, I think it only gets you 3 PTA and a few million at best, if it all breaks right for you. Me? I’d pass again (Man, I feel like Patrick Mahomes)

Last, and possibly not least is Burning - a Korean movie that I read a few things on - and I still don’t know what it’s about. It has Glen from TWD in it so that’s good. But the plot seems incomprehensible. Don’t pick this for your slates. And watch Train to Busan instead.

There you go. The lamest week since late August! Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Good thing next week we get Freddie Mercury kicking us all back into life. Until then. . .

Top 5
Halloween - 30 million (A steep dive!)
A Star is Born - 14 million (A less steep dive)
Hunter Killer - 8 million (Dive - Dive!)
Venom - 8 million (I’m still here!)
First Man 6 million (Up Up and Away)

PTA
Mid-90’s
Can you ever forgive Me
Suspiria
A Star is Born
Halloween

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Mid90's expands wide this weekend. Suspiria is still set to expand wide next week or the week after (there's an advance screening happening here next Wednesday). Box Office Mojo lists Beautiful Boy as expanding wide on the 2nd but it might actually be the 9th (I've been seeing the 9th).

Halloween is getting IMAX screens this weekend so as a result, it could drop less than usual. I don't think any of the openers will hit $10 million (Mid90's should finish way out of the top five).

As for PTA, Suspiria and Burning should be the top two.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Post by numbersix »

Walleye, as great as your article is I cannot believe you failed to say that Hunter Killer would "sink". I mean, come on!!!

Suspiria should top the PTA game - the director is ona high from his last film, and it's a hipster remake of a classic, with Thom Yorke doing the score. It will definitely do amazing business, despite its length. 5 points this weekend but if it expands it'll die.

Burning is a strange film, for sure, but the reviews have been amazing and the director is known (at least in Chien's circle!). And the Murakami link (based on one of his short stories) also helps. It should get a few points this week and next.

Top 5
1. Halloween - 34 million
2. A Star is Born - 12 million
3. Venom - 9 million
4. Hunter Killer - 7 million
5. Goosebumps 2 - 6 million


PTA: Suspiria, Burning, Can You Ever Forgive Me, Halloween, Beautiful Boy

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Post by Buscemi2 »

One thing I have to admit. I'm disappointed Burning isn't about the airline that gives you so much more.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Post by Walleye413 »

numbersix wrote:Walleye, as great as your article is I cannot believe you failed to say that Hunter Killer would "sink". I mean, come on!!!
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

Hunter Killer - 2,728
Indivisible - 830
Johnny English Strikes Again - 544
Suspiria - 2

Mid90s - 1,206



Next week:

Bohemian Rhapsody - 3,800
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 3,800
Nobody's Fool - 2,400
A Private War - 4

Beautiful Boy - wide






Celebrity Birthdays:

Christopher Lloyd turned 80 on 10/22
Derek Jacobi turned 80 on 10/22
Amandla Stenberg turned 20 on 10/23
Marion Ross turned 90 on 10/25 (Mrs. Cunningham is 90?! Good for her!)
Nolan Gould turns 20 on 10/28
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Post by Walleye413 »

At 1200 screens Mid90's is definitely not winning the PTA this week :)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Post by transformers2 »

Deadline provided some clarity on Suspiria's expansion plans today: Apparently it's not going wide next weekend like originally planned. However, it's still expanding to roughly 250 theaters, so its PTA outlook after this weekend remains pretty bleak.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Halloween, $10M (and now over $100M)
A Star is Born, $4.2M
Venom, $2.9M
Hunter Killer, $2.5M
Goosebumps 2, $1.8M
The Hate U Give, $1.4M
First Man, $1.4M
Mid90s, $1.3M
Smallfoot, $1.1M

Indivisible, $605K




Weekend Projections:

Halloween, $32M (-58%)
A Star is Born, $14M
Venom, $10.2M
Hunter Killer, $8M
Goosebumps 2, $7.1M
The Hate U Give, $4.9M
Smallfoot, $4.9M
First Man, $4.8M
Mid90s, $3.6
Night School, $3.2M


PTA:
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, $15K
Halloween, $8K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Halloween, $32.0M
4 points - A Star is Born, $14.1M
3 points - Venom, $10.8M
2 points - Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, $7.5M
1 point - Hunter Killer, $6.6M
The Hate U Give, $5.1M
First Man, $4.9M
Smallfoot, $4.7M
Night School, $3.2M
Mid90s, $3.0M

12. Johnny English Strikes Again, $1.6M
13. Indivisible, $1.6M




PTA:
5 points - Suspiria, $89.9K (fucking WOW)
4 points - Can You Ever Forgive Me?, $15.2K
3 points - Burning, $14.3K
2 points - Halloween, $8.0K
1 point - A Star is Born, $3.6K




Predictions/Observations:

1. Halloween is looking at $180M, though it may drop off sharply once the holiday is past.

2. A Star is Born may also reach $180M, but again, now that Oscar bait movies will be coming left and right, we'll see.

3. Venom is a lock to reach $200M. And since this is the first year in a loooooong time that there hasn't been a Marvel movie leading off November, it could go higher.

4. First Man will not reach $50M. Disappointing.

5. Night School had a good lead on Smallfoot after being released on the same day. Smallfoot has now passed Night School. Both have a shot at $80M.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Post by Shrykespeare »

FYI - I will be going on vaca for a couple days starting tomorrow. I may not be able to post the Aug-Oct leagues until I get back (Wednesday), but I will post the November pricing schemes. I will also try to start the next round of the Quarterly Draft league.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

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I wonder if First Man's underwhelming performance is entirely due to Cooper and Lady "1 in 99" Gaga.

It had good reviews, and is the kinda film that should do well. Critics loved it (audiences a little less so - think it's a B+ Cinemascore). But ASIB sucked in those older folk.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

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I think there are a few more factors.

1. Neil Armstrong wasn't really a subject that needed to be a film.
2. The marketing showed the entire movie in two minutes.
3. Inspirational spaceman movies have been on the way out for a while (I think The Space Between Us killed them).
4. The American flag controversy the alt-right (many of which seem to be part of the Chazelle fan community) started to undermine the film. The flag does make an appearance but they still won't let it go.

By the way, remember that movie London Fields that Lionsgate picked up only to drop it after all the legal issues? It finally opened on Friday and had the second worst wide opening ever. I wasn't even aware that it went wide as it wasn't playing anywhere near me. Of course, the reviews were terrible and Johnny Depp hasn't done anything good in some time.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Post by W »

Buscemi2 wrote:I think there are a few more factors.

1. Neil Armstrong wasn't really a subject that needed to be a film.
2. The marketing showed the entire movie in two minutes.
3. Inspirational spaceman movies have been on the way out for a while (I think The Space Between Us killed them).
4. The American flag controversy the alt-right (many of which seem to be part of the Chazelle fan community) started to undermine the film. The flag does make an appearance but they still won't let it go.

By the way, remember that movie London Fields that Lionsgate picked up only to drop it after all the legal issues? It finally opened on Friday and had the second worst wide opening ever. I wasn't even aware that it went wide as it wasn't playing anywhere near me. Of course, the reviews were terrible and Johnny Depp hasn't done anything good in some time.
1. If the first person to walk on the moon isn't a subject to be filmed, who is?
2. Historical films do this. It didn't hurt Titanic people knowing it would sink.
3. Interstellar? Gravity? A movie nobody cared to see (Space Between Us) can't kill a genre.
4. Alt-right people don't go to movies. Alt-right people are such a miniscule amount of the public it won't matter anyway. I have a hard time believing the Alt-right people love a guy that's most famous for a musical about a super liberal city.

I do think it was hurt by A Star is Born. And First Man really wasn't a spectacle like I thought it would be. Seeing the moon scenes in IMAX was worth it. I wonder if it was without IMAX, though.

London Fields was playing at about half the AMCs in Indianapolis.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Oct 26th

Post by undeadmonkey »

I agree with the trailer aspect, i felt like i had seen the movie afterwards and that had nothing to do with knowing what the story is about. The other points are reaching.

However, I definitely agree with the competition. If the articles are to believed, this might be the most successful October to date. So people have been busy watching movies, just not First Man.

Depp's uncredited cameo in London Fields has nothing to do with it bombing. The average moviegoer will not even know that he is in it.

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