SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/19
Posted: October 17th, 2018, 3:18 am
It’s horror time. Well, it was last week for Damien “Curse-You-Moonlight” Chazelle when he saw the box office figures and realised his latest had been beaten twice to the top, and nearly rivalled by a kids horror sequel. But this week has something a little different: endless laughter.
If you think Halloween (Universal) is following in the footsteps of other holiday-themed movies as an anthology of romantic stories, well you’d be right. Yes, Jamie Lee Curtis has spent her whole life waiting for the return of the man of her dreams, good ol Mike. The producer even hired a comedian (Danny McBride) to write it, who reteams with buddy David Gordon Green (Pineapple Express) to direct.
Seriously, though, while most horror remakes of this century had a significant ceiling that slowly dropped with each bumbled attempt at resurrecting a tired franchise, something changed. That something was last year’s It, which cashed in on 90s nostalgia and Stranger Things adoration to blow expectations out of the water. Halloween seems to be riding that film’s coat-tails, and the impressive trailer did even more to lure cinemagoers into Michael Myer’s layer of reboots. Reviews have been mostly positive, which certainly helps. So how well with this film fare? Other films have fled like scantily-clad women screeching through the forest. This film will be huge, not It huge, but predictions of an opening in the 50s might be too conservative. This could blow past 60m over the opening 3 days and hit nearly 150m. That will also get you 13 T5 points, 3-5 PTA points, and low 7s IMDB score. Ranging from $11-18 across the various leagues, grab this one and stab it right in the face, as it’s probably the best mid-range film since A Quiet Place.
That’s it for wide releases (The Hate U Give is going wide this weekend, but probably won’t be a Top 5 film), but there are 4 indie movies coming out to hack away at Mike’s PTA potential.
Can you Ever Forgive Me is one of Fox Searchlight's prestige pics for the awards season. Melissa McCarthy holds in the farts to instead play it straight. She plays Lee Israel, the real-life biographer who took to becoming a master forger. Directed by Marielle Heller and written by Nicole Holofcener, this film has been getting raves across the fests. It may not go fully wide, but expect McCarthy to get lots of awards for not turning that frown upside down. Depending on how aggressively it expands, expect around 10 PTA points and a solid IMDB score (currently high 6s because its users hate women). It’s $4 in Ultimate and worth every unforged buck. Its $2 BO price tag is riskier but could be worth it.
Mid 90s (A24) is next in line. We do love our 90s nostalgia, don’t we (fuck you, world, the 90s isn’t old!)? This film is Jonah Hill’s directorial debut. Inspired by his childhood, it depicts a young teenager growing up in 90s LA, negotiating violent life at home while hanging with his gang of skater-boyz. What’s with the comedians not being funny this week? Although let’s be honest: Melissa McCarthy was never really funny. This film feels more modest, but good reviews and A24’s might just may make this a solid PTA earner, but probably not as much as CYEFM. 6-7 PTA points and a low 7 IMDB score isn’t bad at all.
Struck in the middle is poor old What They Had, Bleecker Street’s drama about a family dealing with their aged mother. It’s another film with strong festival buzz and a solid cast (Michael Shannon, Hilary Swank), but in this competitive week it’s just not strong enough. Skip it.
Finally, The Guilty (Magnolia) is a Danish thriller about a disgraced cop who works at an emergency services call centre, only to get embroiled in a kidnapping that he decides to solve. It won’t get you anything in the game, so I can’t even recommend this $2 movie. But you should go see it, as it’s one of the year’s best films.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Halloween - $70m
2. A Star is Born - $19m
3. Venom - $17m
4. First Man- $8m
5. Goosebumps 2- $8m
PTA: Can You Ever Forgive Me, Mid 90s, Beautiful Boy, Halloween, What They Had
Next week Walleye takes a peek at Hunter Killer, Indivisible, and Johnny English Strikes Again, as well as limited releases Suspiria and Burning.
If you think Halloween (Universal) is following in the footsteps of other holiday-themed movies as an anthology of romantic stories, well you’d be right. Yes, Jamie Lee Curtis has spent her whole life waiting for the return of the man of her dreams, good ol Mike. The producer even hired a comedian (Danny McBride) to write it, who reteams with buddy David Gordon Green (Pineapple Express) to direct.
Seriously, though, while most horror remakes of this century had a significant ceiling that slowly dropped with each bumbled attempt at resurrecting a tired franchise, something changed. That something was last year’s It, which cashed in on 90s nostalgia and Stranger Things adoration to blow expectations out of the water. Halloween seems to be riding that film’s coat-tails, and the impressive trailer did even more to lure cinemagoers into Michael Myer’s layer of reboots. Reviews have been mostly positive, which certainly helps. So how well with this film fare? Other films have fled like scantily-clad women screeching through the forest. This film will be huge, not It huge, but predictions of an opening in the 50s might be too conservative. This could blow past 60m over the opening 3 days and hit nearly 150m. That will also get you 13 T5 points, 3-5 PTA points, and low 7s IMDB score. Ranging from $11-18 across the various leagues, grab this one and stab it right in the face, as it’s probably the best mid-range film since A Quiet Place.
That’s it for wide releases (The Hate U Give is going wide this weekend, but probably won’t be a Top 5 film), but there are 4 indie movies coming out to hack away at Mike’s PTA potential.
Can you Ever Forgive Me is one of Fox Searchlight's prestige pics for the awards season. Melissa McCarthy holds in the farts to instead play it straight. She plays Lee Israel, the real-life biographer who took to becoming a master forger. Directed by Marielle Heller and written by Nicole Holofcener, this film has been getting raves across the fests. It may not go fully wide, but expect McCarthy to get lots of awards for not turning that frown upside down. Depending on how aggressively it expands, expect around 10 PTA points and a solid IMDB score (currently high 6s because its users hate women). It’s $4 in Ultimate and worth every unforged buck. Its $2 BO price tag is riskier but could be worth it.
Mid 90s (A24) is next in line. We do love our 90s nostalgia, don’t we (fuck you, world, the 90s isn’t old!)? This film is Jonah Hill’s directorial debut. Inspired by his childhood, it depicts a young teenager growing up in 90s LA, negotiating violent life at home while hanging with his gang of skater-boyz. What’s with the comedians not being funny this week? Although let’s be honest: Melissa McCarthy was never really funny. This film feels more modest, but good reviews and A24’s might just may make this a solid PTA earner, but probably not as much as CYEFM. 6-7 PTA points and a low 7 IMDB score isn’t bad at all.
Struck in the middle is poor old What They Had, Bleecker Street’s drama about a family dealing with their aged mother. It’s another film with strong festival buzz and a solid cast (Michael Shannon, Hilary Swank), but in this competitive week it’s just not strong enough. Skip it.
Finally, The Guilty (Magnolia) is a Danish thriller about a disgraced cop who works at an emergency services call centre, only to get embroiled in a kidnapping that he decides to solve. It won’t get you anything in the game, so I can’t even recommend this $2 movie. But you should go see it, as it’s one of the year’s best films.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Halloween - $70m
2. A Star is Born - $19m
3. Venom - $17m
4. First Man- $8m
5. Goosebumps 2- $8m
PTA: Can You Ever Forgive Me, Mid 90s, Beautiful Boy, Halloween, What They Had
Next week Walleye takes a peek at Hunter Killer, Indivisible, and Johnny English Strikes Again, as well as limited releases Suspiria and Burning.