BURGUNDYS BOX OFFICE BANQUET - THE FILMS OF 5/10

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Ron Burgundy
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BURGUNDYS BOX OFFICE BANQUET - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by Ron Burgundy »

G’day everyone! Ron Burgundy standing by to give you the latest Box Office news…

Last week capped off a very decent September with Night School winning Top 5 ($27M), Smallfoot runner up ($23M), The House with a Clock in its Walls at No. 3, A Simple Favor collected 4th on its way to a solid 8 Top 5 points so far (who saw that coming?) and The Nun holding out fellow new horror flick Hellfest to claim 5th. Old Man and the Gun took home the chocolates for the PTA crown, no major surprise there.

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This weekend Marvel makes a return to the big screen, albeit not in the form of Avengers or X-Men instead in some weird black goo that uses Tom Hardy as a vehicle. Venom (Action/Horror/Sci-Fi) was a famous villain of Spider-Man back in the day, even I recognize the name myself and was hardly into comics. This was supposed to be a massive splash but ever since that “Turd in the Wind” movie trailer, the hype train has slowed down.

Box Office potential is looking a little bit so-so at the moment, it should win the weekend but not the next and the holds aren’t expected to be stellar either. You can argue Marvel is getting a bit of fatigue from its audience but the truth is simply that the movie isn’t supposed to be that good and no tie-ins from Spidey and Co probably hurt this even more. Competition from holdovers isn’t a direct threat since genres dont clash but the buzz for this weekends other opener is reaching fever pitch.

Venom opens up in 4000+ cinemas from Sony/Columbia whose biggest 2018 movie is 2017’s Jumanji. Im expecting a solid $65M opening from Venom going on to reach $150M but probably straining to get to $200+. For ~$30/$20 in either league, its not going to give you a victory and there are many other better options to anchor your slate, not to mention the pricing panel has been giving this less and less cost. And oh crap, look who drafted it in the Full Year Draft, now, where is that time machine Shryke didn’t mange to find, im looking at you UDM!?

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The next movie opening in this first weekend of October is A Star is Born (Drama/Music/Romance) is the debut director effort from Hollywood star Bradley Cooper who also helped write the screenplay and co-stars.

Currently sitting at 8.7(!) on imdb with nearly 8000 votes and 87 on Metascore starring Lady Gaga stripped of all her.....make up (ahh, damn), with supporting roles from Sam Elliott, Andrew Dice Clay and Dave Chappelle. The hype train has gathered momentum for this flick, for about $20 in game, its looking like a must have.

I can see a $50M opening easy, probably more, with a total going over $120M, probably more. I suggest finding room on your slate, even if you don’t like Bradley Cooper.

On the PTA front, attempting to de-throne Old Man is The Hate U give(Crime/Drama). It sounds like a gloomy affair that toes the line between race, law and standing up for whats right. For $6, sitting on 4.8 on imdb but 79 on Metacritc and opening at 34 screens, this looks like a pass based on those early figures.

The other limited release Heavy Trip (Comedy/Music) is standing at 7.1 on imdb, sounds like a Finnish version of This is Spinal Tap cross with Road Trip. It could be a lucky winner but I have no info on the releases (Watch this space- ill see if I can update). For $2 its a big gamble, but I don’t think it will take more than 4 PTA all said.



Top 5:

1. Venom - $65M
2. A Star is Born - $50M
3. Smallfoot - $15M
4. Night School - $13M
5. House with a Clock - $7M



PTA:

Old Man, Heavy Trip, A Star is Born, Collette, Venom


Next week Boosh tackles new Damien Chazzelle movie with gusto, Neil Armstrong biopic First Man along with pre Halloween pre-teen movie Goosebumps 2, new Chris Hemsworth/Drew Goddard re team Bad Times at the El Royale and sole PTA movie Beautiful Boy
Last edited by Ron Burgundy on October 5th, 2018, 6:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Titulating Title taking Time to Type - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm surprised by the Venom tracking. Not much buzz for this one, it seems like.
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numbersix
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Re: Titulating Title taking Time to Type - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by numbersix »

Yeah, I suspect that tracking is too high, and Venom will come under expectations, especially with the initial response to press screenings.

A Star is Born, on the other hand, is going to do so well. Not sure if it will open to 50m, but 40 is a possibility with a strong hold. I'm thinking 150m shouldn't be hard to hit.

in PTA land, I still think The Hate U Give will win the crown. 34 screens seems like a lot, but it's a popular book and the reviews are strong, and Fox can push a film in 34 screens hard.

Top 5:

1. Venom - $55M
2. A Star is Born - $40M
3. Night School - $13M
4. Smallfoot - $12M
5. House with a Clock - $7M

PTA: Hate U Give, A Star is Born, Venom, Old Man, Collette

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Re: Titulating Title taking Time to Type - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by Chienfantome »

Prepare to be shocked by The hate U Give numbers Ron, despite the 34 theaters count, it's win PTA points alright. And it might (will) even get Top 5 points, as Fox will open it wide soon enough. The book is a massive best-seller, the reviews are excellent (97% on RT !), and the word of mouth out of the festivals was excellent. It should break out.

A Star is Born, at this point, given the word of mouth, the reviews, the media exposure and all, the question isn't will it be a hit, but how far will it go. At this honestly it seems like it could get higher than 150M.
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Re: Titulating Title taking Time to Type - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by undeadmonkey »

I dont think Star will open quite that high, but should have strong numbers.

Venom on the other hand seems to be crumbling under its own weight. The only hope for it is the Suicide Squad fans, that movie was terrible, yet people still showed up.

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Re: Titulating Title taking Time to Type - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by Buscemi2 »

Suicide Squad had Joker and Harley Quinn. Venom isn't as big as those two.
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Re: Titulating Title taking Time to Type - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

I think Star has an outside shot of beating Venom this weekend. Those reviews are killing it.

1. A Star Is Born - $40M
2. Venom - $35M
3. Night School - $14M
4. Smallfoot - $13M
5 - House - $7M
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Re: Titulating Title taking Time to Type - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Oh, right, i wasn't aware The Hate U Give was based on a best selling book, didn't do my homework on this one. We all know how what best selling book translates to for cinema: $$$, Crazy Rich Asians hit the ball outta the park.

Im going to say it wont win the weekend but prob take runner up and perhaps challenge in the next few weeks for a few more PTA.
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Re: Titulating Title taking Time to Type - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by Buscemi2 »

Counterpoint to that argument: The Kite Runner. Over ten million copies sold and hardly anyone saw the movie.

Yes, The Hate U Give will make some money but I find it odd that this is getting so much buzz but the very similar Monsters and Men, a film that was a hit at Sundance, is basically being ignored. The Hate U Give looks like the preachy, studio-friendly version of that film.
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Re: Titulating Title taking Time to Type - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

Venom - 4,250
A Star is Born - 3,686
The Hate U Give - 36



Next week:

First Man - 3,500
Goosebumps 2 - 3,400




Celebrity Birthdays:

Avery Brooks turned 70 on 10/2
Shannyn Sossamon turned 40 on 10/3
Alicia Vikander turned 30 on 10/3
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: BURGUNDYS BOX OFFICE BANQUET - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Venom, $32.7M
A Star is Born, $15.8M
Smallfoot, $3.5M
Night School, $3.5M
House with a Clock, $1.8M
A Simple Favor, $1M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: BURGUNDYS BOX OFFICE BANQUET - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Projections:

Venom, $75M
A Star is Born, $44M
Smallfoot, $14.7M
Night School, $12.5M
House with a Clock, $7.4M
A Simple Favor, $3.5M
The Nun, $2.6M
Hell Fest, $2.1M
Crazy Rich Asians, $2M
The Predator, $1M




PTA:

Venom, $17K
The Hate U Give, $15K
A Star is Born, $12K
Old Man and the Gun, $7K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: BURGUNDYS BOX OFFICE BANQUET - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by Walleye413 »

I am seriously stunned by Venoms numbers. I have zero interest in seeing this movie - and I'm a big Spidey fan. I thought this looked terrible from the jump. America never ceases to amaze and perplex me.

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Re: BURGUNDYS BOX OFFICE BANQUET - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by Buscemi2 »

From what I can speculate, it seems as if conservatives are making Venom a popular movie. When I saw The Predator today, I noticed that the audience for Venom skewed male and a lot of them had that alt-right vibe. It will be interesting to see demographic breakdowns between Venom and A Star is Born, as I feel that A Star is Born won in big cities and more liberal markets (even with the country music angle) while Venom took the smaller cities and more conservative markets (despite being set in San Francisco).

The Cinemascores favored A Star is Born (A score) over Venom (B+ score), which suggest A Star is Born will hold well (a 3.5-4 multiplier is very possible) while Venom would normally do a 2.7 multiple but I think it will be frontloaded due to the name brand and it being a holiday weekend in many places (Columbus Day/Indigenous Americans Day/Thanksgiving in Canada), said multiple could go down as low as a 2.
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Re: BURGUNDYS BOX OFFICE BANQUET - THE FILMS OF 5/10

Post by Spectre »

Buscemi2 wrote:The Cinemascores favored A Star is Born (A score) over Venom (B+ score), which suggest A Star is Born will hold well (a 3.5-4 multiplier is very possible) while Venom would normally do a 2.7 multiple but I think it will be frontloaded due to the name brand and it being a holiday weekend in many places (Columbus Day/Indigenous Americans Day/Thanksgiving in Canada), said multiple could go down as low as a 2.
I would be stunned if Venom didn't top a 2.0 multiplier. Most people I know that have seen it said it was better than they were expecting after reading reviews. I think it's more likely it gets around a 2.5 and gets fudged over $200M so they can start on a sequel.

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