SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21
Posted: September 19th, 2018, 8:33 pm
Yes, it's me, your fearless leader (kind of), taking a break from his job/wife/literary career to bring you the scoop on this weekend's filmic potential.
Last week, The Predator took #1 at the box office despite sucking ass as a film, due largely to the fact that it's September. Yes, we have had some surprise breakout hits in the last two months (The Meg, Crazy Rich Asians, The Nun), but Shane Black's latest disappointment was not hard to predict. The aforementioned Nun dropped a whopping 66% in its sophomore session but still finished at #2, and will likely hit $100M this weekend. Newcomers A Simple Favor and White Boy Rick notched $16.0M and $8.8M in their debuts, with them Wacky Wealthy Singaporeans claiming their fifth week in the Top 5. On the PTA front, documentary Hal scored a surprise victory in its second week, beating out biopic Lizzie and a host of wide-release debuts.
Four months ago, I had huge hopes for A House with a Clock in its Walls (Universal). It looked very Tim Burton-y, spooky yet fun, with a premise to enthrall viewers of all ages. It had Jack Black (hot off Jumanji), Cate Blanchett (hot off Thor: Ragnarok and Ocean's 8), and despite the fact that Eli Roth isn't really known for directing comedies, I saw this doing respectable numbers a la The Haunted Mansion. That's why I picked it in the third round.
Well, even Babe Ruth didn't hit a home run every time.
Not that I'm expecting HWACIIW to tank. It should win the weekend with upwards of $20M, so there's that. The bad news is that it will have stiff competition for kid viewers next week with Smallfoot and teenagers in two weeks with Venom. Plus, in three weeks, you have Goosebumps 2, which should steal any thunder this film still has at that point. For $17 in the September Ultimate leagues, you'll end up with seven Top 5, three or four PTA, a middling Rating below 6, and about $60M total. I wouldn't pick it (now). I need to finish that time machine so I can go back to early may and choose A Star is Born.
In 2,500 theaters this weekend (800 fewer than House) will be Life Itself (Amazon Studios), a super-dramatic drama from director Dan Fogelman (creator of TV's dramatic drama This is Us). The film stars Oscar Isaac, Olivias Munn and Cooke, and Hollywood veterans Annette Bening, Mandy Patinkin, and Antonio Banderas (looking hella old). I'm honestly not sure what the plot is, as both the trailer and the blurb are horrendously vague, but I guess it's about ... life. Itself.
Anyway, the good news is this films is cheap ($9 in Ultimate); the bad news, it's not cheap enough. It could finish anywhere between second and fifth place in the logjam of September releases, but it won't get you much beyond a few T5, one or two PTA, and (again) a Rating below 6. Pass.
On the limited front:
Assassination Nation (Neon) - the wholesome town of Salem (yeah, right) is turned upside down when a malicious hack exposes all its residents' dirty secrets. Chaos ensues. I recognize very few names in the cast (Bella Thorne, yay), I do not know how many theaters will be showing it, but I venture that it will be too many to glean any useful PTA points. It's current Rating (5.1) inspires no confidence, so I would not waste my $4 on this.
Colette (Bleecker Street) - Keira Knightley plays the titular role of Gabrielle Colette, a woman persuaded to put her incredible literary talents to good use by writing novels ... which would then be published under her husband's name. The two become a celebrity couple, but her lack of recognition causes her to rebel. Dominic West, Eleanor Tomlinson and Fiona Shaw also star. Critics have loved it, but its current Rating doesn't reflect that (6.0). This looks like a solid PTA pick, but it's not without its red flags.
Love, Gilda (Magnolia) - This documentary chronicles the life and times of comedic legend and SNL alum Gilda Radner (wife to the late, great Gene Wilder). The film will feature interviews with colleagues and friends, never-before-seen footage, and recently-discovered audiotapes of Gilda. I don't see this becoming a PTA giant, but for $3, you could do worse. At least it has a good Rating (7.5), far and away the best of this week's crowd.
Top 5:
House with a Clock in its Walls, $20M
The Predator, $10M
A Simple Favor, $9M
Life Itself, $8M
The Nun, $8M
PTA:
Colette, House with a Clock in its Walls, Hal, Love Gilda, Lizzie
Next week, Banks will return to tackle Hotel Himalayas, Kevin Hart's 2000th career film, a low-grade teenage slasher film, and an indie film about a senior citizen and a firearm.
Later!
Last week, The Predator took #1 at the box office despite sucking ass as a film, due largely to the fact that it's September. Yes, we have had some surprise breakout hits in the last two months (The Meg, Crazy Rich Asians, The Nun), but Shane Black's latest disappointment was not hard to predict. The aforementioned Nun dropped a whopping 66% in its sophomore session but still finished at #2, and will likely hit $100M this weekend. Newcomers A Simple Favor and White Boy Rick notched $16.0M and $8.8M in their debuts, with them Wacky Wealthy Singaporeans claiming their fifth week in the Top 5. On the PTA front, documentary Hal scored a surprise victory in its second week, beating out biopic Lizzie and a host of wide-release debuts.
Four months ago, I had huge hopes for A House with a Clock in its Walls (Universal). It looked very Tim Burton-y, spooky yet fun, with a premise to enthrall viewers of all ages. It had Jack Black (hot off Jumanji), Cate Blanchett (hot off Thor: Ragnarok and Ocean's 8), and despite the fact that Eli Roth isn't really known for directing comedies, I saw this doing respectable numbers a la The Haunted Mansion. That's why I picked it in the third round.
Well, even Babe Ruth didn't hit a home run every time.
Not that I'm expecting HWACIIW to tank. It should win the weekend with upwards of $20M, so there's that. The bad news is that it will have stiff competition for kid viewers next week with Smallfoot and teenagers in two weeks with Venom. Plus, in three weeks, you have Goosebumps 2, which should steal any thunder this film still has at that point. For $17 in the September Ultimate leagues, you'll end up with seven Top 5, three or four PTA, a middling Rating below 6, and about $60M total. I wouldn't pick it (now). I need to finish that time machine so I can go back to early may and choose A Star is Born.
In 2,500 theaters this weekend (800 fewer than House) will be Life Itself (Amazon Studios), a super-dramatic drama from director Dan Fogelman (creator of TV's dramatic drama This is Us). The film stars Oscar Isaac, Olivias Munn and Cooke, and Hollywood veterans Annette Bening, Mandy Patinkin, and Antonio Banderas (looking hella old). I'm honestly not sure what the plot is, as both the trailer and the blurb are horrendously vague, but I guess it's about ... life. Itself.
Anyway, the good news is this films is cheap ($9 in Ultimate); the bad news, it's not cheap enough. It could finish anywhere between second and fifth place in the logjam of September releases, but it won't get you much beyond a few T5, one or two PTA, and (again) a Rating below 6. Pass.
On the limited front:
Assassination Nation (Neon) - the wholesome town of Salem (yeah, right) is turned upside down when a malicious hack exposes all its residents' dirty secrets. Chaos ensues. I recognize very few names in the cast (Bella Thorne, yay), I do not know how many theaters will be showing it, but I venture that it will be too many to glean any useful PTA points. It's current Rating (5.1) inspires no confidence, so I would not waste my $4 on this.
Colette (Bleecker Street) - Keira Knightley plays the titular role of Gabrielle Colette, a woman persuaded to put her incredible literary talents to good use by writing novels ... which would then be published under her husband's name. The two become a celebrity couple, but her lack of recognition causes her to rebel. Dominic West, Eleanor Tomlinson and Fiona Shaw also star. Critics have loved it, but its current Rating doesn't reflect that (6.0). This looks like a solid PTA pick, but it's not without its red flags.
Love, Gilda (Magnolia) - This documentary chronicles the life and times of comedic legend and SNL alum Gilda Radner (wife to the late, great Gene Wilder). The film will feature interviews with colleagues and friends, never-before-seen footage, and recently-discovered audiotapes of Gilda. I don't see this becoming a PTA giant, but for $3, you could do worse. At least it has a good Rating (7.5), far and away the best of this week's crowd.
Top 5:
House with a Clock in its Walls, $20M
The Predator, $10M
A Simple Favor, $9M
Life Itself, $8M
The Nun, $8M
PTA:
Colette, House with a Clock in its Walls, Hal, Love Gilda, Lizzie
Next week, Banks will return to tackle Hotel Himalayas, Kevin Hart's 2000th career film, a low-grade teenage slasher film, and an indie film about a senior citizen and a firearm.
Later!