Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14
Posted: September 12th, 2018, 3:52 pm
Well I've finally joined "the lose your entire column as your about to post it" club. I'm beyond honored to have been initiated into this group and I will cherish this renowned distinction for the rest of my days. Here's the abbreviated version of the ramblings I wrote earlier.
Last weekend recap:
-Warner Brothers remarkable run of hits continues withThe Nun, which surprisingly set a new high OW for the very successful The Conjuring universe. Even if its tepid WOM leads to steep drops for the rest of its run, it should earn at least $125 mil and challenge the OG Conjuring for the franchise's highest domestic haul.
-Other new wide release Peppermint also faired relatively well by squeaking past 3x reigning BO champ Crazy Rich Asians for the #2 spot. The Jennifer Garner-led vigilante pic appears in-line to mirror the performance of STX's other recent action flick Mile 22 with a total cume in the mid-30's, despite having half the budget.
Wide Releases
The Predator (Fox) (SEP-NOV pricetag: $16 BO, $16 ULT)
Director: Shane Black Cast: Boyd Holbrook, Trevante Rhodes, Olivia Munn, Keegan Michael-Key, Sterling K. Brown and Jacob Tremblay
-Even before news broke last week of Shane Black's wildly insensitive decision to give a bit part to a friend that was a registered sex offender without alerting his cast or the studio first, The Predator wasn't in a great position to be a smash hit. The entire 3rd act was reshot earlier this year and for whatever reason, the lethal extraterrestrial hunter hasn't replicated the BO success of their Xenomorph cousins. It should still end up doing a bit better than 2010's Predators thanks to its less competitive September release date.
Prediction: $25 mil OW, 7-9 Top 5, 3-5 PTA, high 6-low 7 IMDB, $55-65 mil total BO
Verdict: Questionable pick in both formats with the potential to be disastrous if the Black controversy ends up having a greater-than-expected impact on the BO receipts.
A Simple Favor (Lionsgate) (SEP-NOV pricetag: $9 BO, $9 ULT)
Director: Paul Feig Cast: Anna Kendrick, Blake Lively, Henry Golding, Linda Cardelini, Andrew Rennels
A Simple Favor has no shortage of selling points going for it. It's a glossy mystery thriller featuring a pair of likable, recognizable leads helmed by a director responsible for several recent hits that has received pretty enthusiastic, if not impressive early reviews (90% on RT). This strong pedigree is sadly undermined by its distributor. Lionsgate has had a shit year at the BO outside of Overboard and I don't expect this to be the title that breaks their run of films that crap out before they eclipse $50 mil.
Prediction: $13.5 mil OW, 3-4 Top 5, 0-2 PTA, mid-to-high 6 IMDB, $35-40 mil total BO
Verdict: Mediocre slate filler in both formats
White Boy Rick (Sony/Studio 8 (SEP-NOV pricetag: $6 BO, $6 ULT)
Director: Yann Demange Cast: Richie Merritt, Matthew McConaughey, Jonathan Majors, Bel Powley, RJ Cyler, Brian Tyree Henry and Jennifer Jason Leigh
Despite the lukewarm critical reception following its screenings on the festival circuit and uninspiring industry tracking numbers ($7-10 mil), I believe that White Boy Rick could end up surprising. Sony has pushed the hell out of it in recent weeks, true crime stories tend to have a broad appeal and if the reportedly excellent test screening scores (90's) translate to the mass audiences, it could end up holding very well in the coming weeks. A top 3 finish at the BO this weekend and $30+ mil domestic run certainly isn't out of the question.
Prediction: $9.5 mil OW, 2-4 Top 5, 0-2 PTA, high 6 to low 7 IMDb, $30-35 mil total BO
Verdict: Affordable wide release with real overachiever potential that could end up being a great addition to your slate (particularly in BO).
Limited Releases:
American Chaos (Sony Classics) (SEP-NOV pricetag: $3 ULT, $1 BO)
Director: James D. Stern Cast: Trump voters that were interviewed by the director ahead of the 2016 election
This is a rough one to predict. Liberals will probably wait until Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 11/9 opens wide next weekend while conservatives are likely avoid to anything that even remotely criticizes Trump. However, I'm not going to bet against anything political in this current climate, especially considering the completely barren limited market right now.
Prediction: 6-8 PTA, IMDB in the 4's
Verdict: It's IMDB score will likely be shit (currently at 3.4 with 27), but it's has a pretty good amount of PTA potential for a $3 pick if you're willing to overlook that.
Lizzie (Roadside/Saban) (SEP-Nove pricetag: $3 ULT, $1 BO)
Director: Craig William Macneil Cast: Chloe Sevigny, Kristen Stewart, Fiona Shaw, Jamey Sheridan, Denis O'Hare and Kim Dickens.
While it may squeak put multiple PTA points this weekend due to the aforementioned lack of competition, the latest adaptation of the real-life urban legend of acquitted axe murderer Lizzie Borden seems like a longshot to be an arthouse hit. The reviews haven't been overly great (70% RT) and it has the potential to expand to a couple hundred theaters in no time at all.
Prediction: 1-3 PTA, IMDb in the low-to-mid 6's
Verdict: Spend your $3 in ULT elsewhere
Weekend Projections:
1.The Predator $25 mil
2.The Nun $23 mil
3.A Simple Favor $13.5 mil
4.White Boy Rick $9.5 mil
5.Crazy Rich Asians $8 mil
PTA: American Chaos, The Predator, The Nun, Lizzie,White Boy Rick
Tune in next week when Shryke returns to his old stomping grounds to deliver forecasts for the godfather of torture porn's first foray into the world of family films, Dan Fogelman's latest decades-spanning tearjerker, an ultraviolent satire from upstart studio Neon, Keira Knightley's return to the arthouse scene and a documentary about one of SNL's most iconic cast members.
Last weekend recap:
-Warner Brothers remarkable run of hits continues withThe Nun, which surprisingly set a new high OW for the very successful The Conjuring universe. Even if its tepid WOM leads to steep drops for the rest of its run, it should earn at least $125 mil and challenge the OG Conjuring for the franchise's highest domestic haul.
-Other new wide release Peppermint also faired relatively well by squeaking past 3x reigning BO champ Crazy Rich Asians for the #2 spot. The Jennifer Garner-led vigilante pic appears in-line to mirror the performance of STX's other recent action flick Mile 22 with a total cume in the mid-30's, despite having half the budget.
Wide Releases
The Predator (Fox) (SEP-NOV pricetag: $16 BO, $16 ULT)
Director: Shane Black Cast: Boyd Holbrook, Trevante Rhodes, Olivia Munn, Keegan Michael-Key, Sterling K. Brown and Jacob Tremblay
-Even before news broke last week of Shane Black's wildly insensitive decision to give a bit part to a friend that was a registered sex offender without alerting his cast or the studio first, The Predator wasn't in a great position to be a smash hit. The entire 3rd act was reshot earlier this year and for whatever reason, the lethal extraterrestrial hunter hasn't replicated the BO success of their Xenomorph cousins. It should still end up doing a bit better than 2010's Predators thanks to its less competitive September release date.
Prediction: $25 mil OW, 7-9 Top 5, 3-5 PTA, high 6-low 7 IMDB, $55-65 mil total BO
Verdict: Questionable pick in both formats with the potential to be disastrous if the Black controversy ends up having a greater-than-expected impact on the BO receipts.
A Simple Favor (Lionsgate) (SEP-NOV pricetag: $9 BO, $9 ULT)
Director: Paul Feig Cast: Anna Kendrick, Blake Lively, Henry Golding, Linda Cardelini, Andrew Rennels
A Simple Favor has no shortage of selling points going for it. It's a glossy mystery thriller featuring a pair of likable, recognizable leads helmed by a director responsible for several recent hits that has received pretty enthusiastic, if not impressive early reviews (90% on RT). This strong pedigree is sadly undermined by its distributor. Lionsgate has had a shit year at the BO outside of Overboard and I don't expect this to be the title that breaks their run of films that crap out before they eclipse $50 mil.
Prediction: $13.5 mil OW, 3-4 Top 5, 0-2 PTA, mid-to-high 6 IMDB, $35-40 mil total BO
Verdict: Mediocre slate filler in both formats
White Boy Rick (Sony/Studio 8 (SEP-NOV pricetag: $6 BO, $6 ULT)
Director: Yann Demange Cast: Richie Merritt, Matthew McConaughey, Jonathan Majors, Bel Powley, RJ Cyler, Brian Tyree Henry and Jennifer Jason Leigh
Despite the lukewarm critical reception following its screenings on the festival circuit and uninspiring industry tracking numbers ($7-10 mil), I believe that White Boy Rick could end up surprising. Sony has pushed the hell out of it in recent weeks, true crime stories tend to have a broad appeal and if the reportedly excellent test screening scores (90's) translate to the mass audiences, it could end up holding very well in the coming weeks. A top 3 finish at the BO this weekend and $30+ mil domestic run certainly isn't out of the question.
Prediction: $9.5 mil OW, 2-4 Top 5, 0-2 PTA, high 6 to low 7 IMDb, $30-35 mil total BO
Verdict: Affordable wide release with real overachiever potential that could end up being a great addition to your slate (particularly in BO).
Limited Releases:
American Chaos (Sony Classics) (SEP-NOV pricetag: $3 ULT, $1 BO)
Director: James D. Stern Cast: Trump voters that were interviewed by the director ahead of the 2016 election
This is a rough one to predict. Liberals will probably wait until Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 11/9 opens wide next weekend while conservatives are likely avoid to anything that even remotely criticizes Trump. However, I'm not going to bet against anything political in this current climate, especially considering the completely barren limited market right now.
Prediction: 6-8 PTA, IMDB in the 4's
Verdict: It's IMDB score will likely be shit (currently at 3.4 with 27), but it's has a pretty good amount of PTA potential for a $3 pick if you're willing to overlook that.
Lizzie (Roadside/Saban) (SEP-Nove pricetag: $3 ULT, $1 BO)
Director: Craig William Macneil Cast: Chloe Sevigny, Kristen Stewart, Fiona Shaw, Jamey Sheridan, Denis O'Hare and Kim Dickens.
While it may squeak put multiple PTA points this weekend due to the aforementioned lack of competition, the latest adaptation of the real-life urban legend of acquitted axe murderer Lizzie Borden seems like a longshot to be an arthouse hit. The reviews haven't been overly great (70% RT) and it has the potential to expand to a couple hundred theaters in no time at all.
Prediction: 1-3 PTA, IMDb in the low-to-mid 6's
Verdict: Spend your $3 in ULT elsewhere
Weekend Projections:
1.The Predator $25 mil
2.The Nun $23 mil
3.A Simple Favor $13.5 mil
4.White Boy Rick $9.5 mil
5.Crazy Rich Asians $8 mil
PTA: American Chaos, The Predator, The Nun, Lizzie,White Boy Rick
Tune in next week when Shryke returns to his old stomping grounds to deliver forecasts for the godfather of torture porn's first foray into the world of family films, Dan Fogelman's latest decades-spanning tearjerker, an ultraviolent satire from upstart studio Neon, Keira Knightley's return to the arthouse scene and a documentary about one of SNL's most iconic cast members.