Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/29, 8/31

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/29, 8/31

Post by transformers2 »

There was a strong indication that Crazy RIch Asians was going to breakout prior to its release. However, I don't think even the most optimistic forecasts could've possibly anticipated what it was able to accomplish this past weekend.

The ensemble romcom confirmed just how strong its WOM is by pulling in $24.8 mill in its 2nd weekend of release, marking a miniscule drop of just over 6%. This was the 7th smallest 2nd weekend decline since 1982 and the first drop of less than 10% that didn't take place over a holiday weekend since 2011's Puss in Boots. If this terrific holding pattern continues and none of the mid-tier, non-family titles currently scheduled for the first few weeks of September (Peppermint, A Simple Favor, White Boy Rick, Life Itself ) end up overperforming, Crazy Rich Asians will more than likely spend another month in the top 5. Truly remarkable stuff.

While the rest of the field clearly couldn't contend with Crazy Rich Asians and its borderline absurd holdover audience, small drops ended up being a pretty constant theme of this late August Weekend. Humans on Submarine vs. Massive Ancient Shark ($12.8 mil,-39%, #2 finish), Tom Cruise vs. his personal safety and physical wellbeing part 6 ($8.0 mil, -25%, #4 finish), Christopher Robin vs. adult responsibilities ($6.3 mil,-29%, #6 finish) and Denzel's son and Kylo Ren vs. the KKK ($5.1 mil, -31%, #7 finish) all enjoyed minimal dips in their respective 3rd, 4th, and 5th weeks of release.

It wasn't all eye-popping holds and sunshine at the box office this weekend. In fact, a true tragedy took place as my meticulously-researched theory about puppet fucking playing better closer to Labor Day proved to be complete hogwash as STX's The Happytime Murders limped to a dismal $9.5 mil opening (#3 for the weekend). R-rated comedies have performed a bit better in 2018 compared to last year with Tag, Blockers and Game Night all making over $50 mil domestically, but clearly the mass interest just wasn't there for Happytime Murders despite its unconventional hook of Henson creations swearing, doing drugs and fornicating like their depraved human counterparts have been doing for centuries.

Cyber suspense thriller Searching ended up dominating the sea of holdovers (The Wife, Juliet Naked, We the Animals) ) on the specialty market with an impressive $43,197 PTA in 9 theaters. Searching expands to approximately 1,100 theaters this weekend and based on the seemingly strong buzz behind it right now, I think it could surpass its modest expectations with an OW of $10+ mil, which should be enough for it to open in 2nd behind Crazy Rich Asians.

Wide Releases:
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Hollywood hasn't put out a lot of crowdpleasers aimed at the elderly audience this summer, but thankfully the good people at MGM gave the blueheads a reason to catch 1 final 10:00 AM. matinee at the multiplex before the season officially comes to a close when they moved Operation Finale (MGM) up from its initial mid-September release date. This fact-based story focuses on a team of Israeli spies (Oscar Issac, Nick Kroll, Melanie Laurent, Michael Aronov, Greg Hill) in 1960 that are tasked with locating and capturing a key Nazi commander (Ben Kingsley) who helped architect the Holocaust whose hiding out in Argentina is bound to get Gertrude's and Bernie's across the country lightly applauding in their seats before they return home to binge watch reruns of NCIS on USA.

While the release date shift undoubtedly improves its outlook, Operation Finale is by no means a guaranteed home run. Its reviews haven't been overly enthusiastic (63% RT, 60 Metascore) and I'm not sure the marketing has been strong enough to generate a ton of awareness, especially since it only got bumped up to its current release date in mid-July. That being said, I'm not delusional enough to completely write off a historical drama-especially one involving World War 2 and a pretty wide open Labor Day slate could very well play to its advantage. I'll predict an OW of around $7 mil ($8.5 mil 4-day/$11.5 mil 6-day), 3-4 top 5 points, 0-2 PTA, an IMDB score in the high 6's and a final BO tally of $25-30 mil ($35-40 if the WOM ends up being otherwordly). Even at an affordable price tag of $7 in both formats in JUL-SEP and AUG-OCT leagues, it's probably not worth a spot on your slate.


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I'll get straight to it: Kin (Lionsgate/Summit) might be the most surefire bomb of the season. It may have a cast with a fair amount of recognizable faces (Jack Reynor, Zoe Kravitz, James Franco, Carrie Coon, Dennis Quaid) and a flashy sci-fi premise about a young kid that suddenly becomes a target of space soldiers and nefarious figures from the criminal underworld after he comes into possession of a coveted futuristic gun of mysterious origins , but all the signs point to this being a grade-A dump by the studio. You're more likely to find a fucking 1st edition Rembrant in a Waffle House dumpster than promotional material for this film outside of YouTube or a stray screening of another summer' 18 sensation like The Darkest Minds and outside of Kravitz appearing on Jimmy Kimmel a couple weeks back, nobody involved with the project seems to be publicly acknowledging its existence. If this doesn't secure a spot on the list of all-time worst OW's for a title opening in 2,000+ theaters, Lionsgate brass should make sure their ad campaigns for A Simple Favor in order so my FY draft slate doesn't suffer from the unwanted presence of another gross underperformer then go on an insane bender for the next week. They'd REALLY deserve it. In conclusion, Kin is a complete non-starter that won't make more than $4 mil this weekend, $12-13 mil overall or post an IMDb score higher than 6.5. I know god damn well that you guys are too savvy to put this on your slate and any last-minute insertion of it would be absolutely stunning to me.


Limited Releases:
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Ya Veremos (Pantelion), which is opening around 350 theaters this weekend, is the epitome of a wild card. It could play out like 2013's Instructions Not Included and become a surprise hit in the States ($45 mil total BO) or completely flame out like last year's Do It Like an Hombre ($2.5 mil BO), both of which held Pantelion's Labor Day weekend release slot in the past. On the plus side, Ya Veremos posted the 2nd-highest opening ever (behind only Instructions Not Included) for a domestic film in Mexico earlier this month. On the downside, the bulk of the reviews out of its home country that have largely cited it as a generic family melodrama, its IMDb score is currently at 5.3 and most importantly, the track record of Spanish-language films not starring Derbez here in the States during this current decade is very grim on the whole. The lack of Derbez-less hits are going to make me air on the side of the caution, but I still expect this to do better than most of Pantelion's other titles with an OW of around $3 mil, a final tally just south of $10 mil and an outside chance of securing a couple PTA on this sleepy weekend. There are certainly far worse titles to take a $3-4 flier on (like the one I'm about to talk about....)


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It wasn't too long ago that The Little Stranger (Focus) seemed like it would be a delightful little late-summer PTA pick, a la last year's Beach Rats, that would wreak havoc on the specialty box office simply because of the sheer lack of competition. I mean c'mon it's a gothic horror flick adapted from a well-received book directed by Lenny Abrahamson, who is fresh off an Oscar nom for 2015's Room and starring several respected actors from Western Europe (Domhnall Gleeson, Ruth Wilson, Charlotte Rampling). Hell, reading that last sentence back right now even makes me feel like its a limited winner in the making. Then Focus decided to effectively kill its chances of making an impact in our game by making it a semi-wide release. Bastards! We clearly have no idea what the popular critical opinion of the final product will be since there's next-to-no reviews currently floating around the internet, but its slated 400+ theater opening would seem to indicate that it wasn't something that was going to set the NYC and LA arthouses ablaze with positive buzz. With a theater count that puts in the dreaded no-man's land where both PTA and BO success are hard to attain and an IMDb score that likely won't be higher than somewhere in mid 6's, it should be avoided at all costs.


Weekend Projections:
1.Crazy Rich Asians $18 mil ($22 mil 4-day)
2.Searching $10 mil ($13 mil 4-day)
3.The Meg $8.5 mil ($10.5 mil 4-day)
4.Operation Finale $7 mil ($9 mil 4-day)
5.Mission-Impossible: Fallout $6 mil ($7.5 mil 4-day)

PTA: Searching,The Wife, Crazy Rich Asians, Ya Veremos, Juliet Naked

Tune in next week when six breaks down the ear-piercing jump scares of Conjuring spinoff The Nun, Jennifer Garner's long-awaited return to the action genre in Peppermint and the latest from beloved director of God's Not Dead entitled God Bless the Broken Road, which according to its IMDb plot description uses faith, country music and stock car racing to help pay tribute to the members of the United States military, that seems destined to become a constant fixture in the feature film rotation at Mike Pence's house for the rest of time.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/29, 8/31

Post by numbersix »

I would LOVE Searching to earn that high, but I'm not so sure. The kind of audience it wants to target (them teens) don't go to see films like this. But fingers crossed I'm wrong!

Little Stranger is DOA. No reviews, and no festival strategy. It's a dump. Once again (after Frank) Lenny Abrahamson has proven he is not good when he ventures away from drama.

1.Crazy Rich Asians $20 mil ($23 mil 4-day)
2.The Meg $8 mil ($10 mil 4-day)
3. Operation Finale $7 mil ($9 mil 4-day)
4. Mission-Impossible: Fallout $6 mil ($7.5 mil 4-day)
5.Searching $5 mil ($6.5 mil 4-day)


PTA: Crazy Rich Asians, Ya Veremos, The Wife, Juliet Naked, Searching

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/29, 8/31

Post by Shrykespeare »

Too bad for Kin, the trailer actually looks kinda cool.


Celebrity Birthdays:

Alexa PanaVega turned 30 on 8/27
Elliot Gould turns 80 on 8/29
Michael Jackson would have turned 60 on 8/29
Lewis Black turns 70 on 8/30
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/29, 8/31

Post by Buscemi2 »

The way Searching is expanding, I'm thinking $4 million for the weekend rather than the $10 million you're throwing around.

And Kin might actually play worse than The Darkest Minds did, especially with many IMAX theatres choosing to show the Marvel titles instead. Maybe this will be the final nail in the coffin for James Franco's career.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/29, 8/31

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts

Kin - 2,141
Operation Finale - 1,818
The Little Stranger - 474
Ya Veremos - 369

Searching expands to 1,207




Next week:

The Nun - 3,700+
Peppermint - 2,850+
God Bless the Broken Road - 1,200+


I see there's a film debuting next week called "I am Not a Witch". I wish I'd included that in the game, for no other reason than it makes me think of that scene in The Holy Grail. "It's a fair cop."
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/29, 8/31

Post by Shrykespeare »

BoxOffice's 4-day weekend forecaste:

Crazy Rich Asians, $29.5M
The Meg, $15M
Operation Finale, $10.4M ($12.2M 6-day)
MI: Fallout, $10.2M
Christopher Robin, $8M
Searching, $3.6M
Kin, $3.3M



So MI:6 will outgross Solo. Huh. And Christopher Robin has an outside shot at $100M after all. Who'd've thought that after its poor start?

But DAMN on CRA and The Meg. Both may hit $150M. Never saw THAT coming.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/29, 8/31

Post by Buscemi2 »

Searching trounced Kin in previews in just over half the theatres. Not sure it's good for Searching or bad for Kin.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/29, 8/31

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Crazy Rich Asians, $5.9M
The Meg, $2.3M
Searching, $1.9M
Operation Finale, $1.7M
MI: Fallout, $1.6M
Christopher Robin, $1.2M
Happytime Murders, $1.2M
Kin, $1.0M




3-day weekend Projections:

Crazy Rich Asians, $23.5M
The Meg, $10M
MI: Fallout, $6.7M
Operation Finale, $6.5M
Searching, $5.7M
Christopher Robin, $5.4M
BlacKkKlansman, $4.5M
Happytime Murders, $4.4M
Alpha, $4.1M
MIle 22, $3.9M
Incredibles 2, $3.7M
Kin, $3M



Predictions/Observations:

1. Crazy Rich Asians will hit $150M.
2. The Meg will cross $120M on Sunday but probably won't hit $140M.
3. MI: Fallout needs less than $10M to pass MI:2 for the highest grossing film in the franchise.
4. Christopher Robin will break $90M but won't hit nine digits.
5. Incredibles 2 will hit $600M on Sunday.
6. The Equalizer 2 will hit $100M on Sunday.



PTA:

Crazy Rich Asians, $6K
Ya Veremos, $4.8K
Searching, $4.7K


Little Stranger will earn about $455K for a PTA of less than $1K.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/29, 8/31

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Crazy Rich Asians, $22.2M
4 points - The Meg, $10.5M
3 points - Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $7.0M
2 points - Operation Finale, $6.0M ($7.7M 5-day)
1 point - Searching, $5.7M
Disney's Christopher Robin, $5.0M
Alpha, $4.4M
The Happytime Murders, $4.4M
BlacKkKlansman, $4.1M
Mile 22, $3.6M



PTA:
5 points - The Wife (that'll be 14 and counting ... wow)
4 points - Crazy Rich Asians
3 points - Ya Veremos
2 points - Searching
1 point - Operation Finale
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/29, 8/31

Post by Walleye413 »

I totally predicted The Wife would do that well!

Or maybe that was Juliet, Naked. Nobody go back and check.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/29, 8/31

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Crazy Rich Asians, $22.0M (15)
4 points - The Meg, $10.5M (17)
3 points - Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $7.0M (21)
2 points - Searching, $6.1M (2)
1 point - Operation Finale, $6.0M ($7.7M 5-day) (1)
Disney's Christopher Robin, $5.3M
Alpha, $4.5M
The Happytime Murders, $4.4M
BlacKkKlansman, $4.2M
Mile 22, $3.7M

12. Kin, $3.0M
15. Ya Veremos, $1.8M
23. The Little Stranger, $400K



PTA:
5 points - The Wife, $6,688 (14)
4 points - Crazy Rich Asians, $5,683 (7)
3 points - Searching, $5,026 (8)
2 points - Ya Veremos, $4,888 (2)
1 point - Operation Finale, $3,313 (1)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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