Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye413
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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by Walleye413 »

As Crazy Rich Asians is getting a headstart on the weekend – we’ll do a 2 part article this week so ya’ll can chime in as you see fit. And, to be fully transparent, this allows me to say a bit more about CRA than I might otherwise. Which I’m excited to do because I really want this movie to do well.

Here’s the thing – I really, really want this movie to do well. I also hope that it’s good, and based on early reviews it seems to be pretty good (especially as rom-coms go.) But let’s all be honest, from a Hollywood perspective it is much more significant that this movie makes money than whether or not it’s good because it’s the first big studio movie since The Joy Luck Club (1993!!!) to have a full Asian cast. And for that reason alone, it has to do well. Because Hollywood is dumb.

In Hollywood Jason Stratham can have a massive hit like The Meg and that’s great, but truth be told it didn’t matter to Jason Stratham if The Meg made money. He’d be back in another action movie 6 months from now anyway. He and the dozens of other white male action stars can have bomb after bomb and Hollywood keeps on bankrolling their dreck, because they know eventually they’ll get the combo right and produce a hit. But if a female version of Ghostbusters underperforms then everyone freaks out about whether or not “women” can headline a movie. Eugenio Derbez can be one of the biggest stars in the world, but in Hollywood he is a huge risk that most studios won’t gamble on.

Enter in: Crazy Rich Asians. Can a fully Asian cast actually make a profit? That’s really the only question that matters to this film on so many levels. And the cast knows it. It’s why they all did it for a total of 30 million (Which, btw is also my prediction for the 5-day for this film.) They wanted this movie to get made and so they did their best work for peanuts compared to many of their fellow (white) actors in hopes that Hollywood might start to believe that casting Asians in all kinds of movies, and in all kinds of roles, might be a net positive instead of a negative.

Will it work? I don’t know. But I’m hopeful. And I’m hopeful, and I’m on my high horse, because 10 years ago my wife and I adopted a little girl from China. She is a beautiful, amazing girl, who brings joy to our family every day. And I’ll tell you – raising a brown child in a white world opens your eyes in ways I never imagined. In big important ways – and in little ones. Like the fact that my daughter almost never, ever sees herself on the big screen in a movie. My other kids do, in nearly every single movie we ever watch. But our youngest – nope, no luck. It’s sad, and it’s dumb. And I hope it changes one movie at a time.

So, here’s hoping that Crazy Rich Asians, which by all accounts follows nearly the same plot of every other Rom Com we’ve ever seen (for good and for ill), is #1 for the weekend, that it makes its budget back in 5 days, and it starts a conversation that yes – Asian people can open a movie in some place other than the Middle Kingdom.

The rest of the movie openers we’ll look at tomorrow.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Did some digging...

Turns out not a single one of Jason Statham's movies has earned $50M where he's been the top biller. Sure, he's been in blockbusters like The Italian Job, The Expendables, and of course the FF series, but The Meg will be his first bit solo hit.

Of course, I'm betting one in ten people going to see The Meg are seeing it for him....
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by numbersix »

Crazy Rich Asians is getting some seriously high tracking numbers. It seems to be one of those films traditional methods/analysts underestimate, maybe because it skews female AND Asian. It's also a bestselling book so it has a lot going for it. I think, despite the Weds opening, it'll win the weekend and slay that supersized shark.

That's also a lovely thing to do, Walleye, adopting an Asian baby. I hope the film succeeds just for your daughter!

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

Too early estimates are in for Crazy Rich Asians and it...

Image

$5.5-6 million Wednesday. A sure bet to win the weekend, even if Alpha is apparently decent from early reviews.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by numbersix »

5.5-6m opening Wednesday should result in a 30-35m 5-day, and a 22-25m 3-day. That's a definite placement at the top.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by Walleye413 »

Well, looks like Crazy Rich Asians is on its way to a Box Office victory! Wahoo for small victories! But CRA isn’t they only movie hoping to make noise this weekend. We’ve got plenty of other releases to debate and add to your slates - if you dare.

Let’s dare to look at Mark Wahlberg (Remember that Will Ferrel moment at the Oscars that lead to them making 3 movies together? Who would have guessed that) Marky Mark is back in the action game with Mile 22 - the 4th collaboration between he and director Peter Berg - and by all accounts the worst of the bunch. This generic looking schlock has Wahlberg and his elite Zombie fighting team (I see you, Maggie) smuggling a police officer with highly sensitive information out of the country. Yeah, it’s just an excuse to talk tough and shoot tough-er. I guess. Nothing about this movie seems appealing to me - and I’ve really enjoyed some of their previous work. If The Meg hadn’t totally overperformed Mile 22 might have done okay, but as it stands it’ll get a few Diehard action dollars and then quickly fade away. I’ll predict a 16 million dollar opening, capping out at 35 total. That’s 3 Top 5 points, maybe a PTA. You can do better. In all senses of the word.

Alpha does not look any better though. If you’ve seen the previews for this one you know we’ve swung dramatically from young teen thriller to a family movie about how one boy domesticated wolves into dogs allowing us to have the joy of scooping poop in dog parks 10,000 years later. Dog movies are always a sneaky move at the Box Office. Dog owners will do anything for their better halves - see Bark at the Park baseball games. See, but don’t smell. But since you can’t actually bring your pooch to this movie, I think its audience will play dead on arrival. This might make 4 million for the weekend and 10 million total. Sit and Stay away from this one.

On the limited front we have 3 titles hoping for top honors.

You’ve got a real debate between Juliet, Naked and The Wife. Both have positives going for them. For The Wife you have Glenn Close in another great role for which she won’t win an Oscar. And Juliet, Naked has a great title, plus a cast that each has their own cult following. Which will America fall for? The Dramedy or the Drama? I’m putting my money on Juliet, Naked in spite of the fact that (spoiler alert) Juliet does not actually get naked. The Wife would need to play closer to Oscar season to gain traction, the fact that they’re dropping it in mid-August is not a sign of confidence. It’ll be close, but it’s Ethan Hawke for the win - 4 PTA points to 2- or 3 for Glenn Close

We the Animals might actually be the best of the bunch for these movies. It’s a heart wrenching coming of age story (yeah, we’ve seen that before) but by all accounts the acting and directing is brilliant. It’ll have the highest IMDB rating of the week, so if you think it can sneak in a PTA point of two, for $2 you might come out with a winner here in ULT. Just a thought.

Alright, that’s it. Next week we get the raunchiest puppets since Avenue Q plus another movie with an Asian lead! Whoever thought those two things would happen in America :)

Top 5
Crazy Rich Asians
The Meg
Mile 22
Mission Impossible
Christopher Robin


PTA
Crazy Rich Asians
Juliet, Naked
The Wife
Mile 22
We The Animals

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numbersix
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by numbersix »

I'm not all convinced by Mile 22. Looks generic, reviews are poor, and there's more distinct fare out there. Thinking it won't hit 15m this weekend.

Will be interesting to see Crazy Rich Asian's hold over these 5 days. Doesn't look like a 30m 5-day so far, but we'll see. If it skews older and more female, it'll hold really well though. Wish I had take The Meg instead.

As for PTA, I think The Wife will win the weekend. It works better for its audience (older), and there's talk of awards (not every award winner comes out in Nov and Dec) for Glenn Close. It also had a surprisingly large opening in Australia, which is interesting to note.

My Predictions
1. Crazy Rich Asians - $21m
2. The Meg - $20m
3. Mile 22 - $14m
4. Mission Impossible - $12m
5. Christopher Robin - $8m


PTA: the Wife, Juliet Naked, Crazy Rich Asians, The Meg, Madeline's Madeline

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by undeadmonkey »

oooh, i hope your right

i suck at the ultimate league lately and honestly it's because i have no idea what to pick for limited releases, i just don't have the time to research like i used to.

adulting sucks

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Crazy Rich Asians, $25.2M ($34.0M 5-day)
4 points - The Meg, $21.1M
3 points - Mile 22, $13.6M
2 points - Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $10.5M
1 point - Alpha, $10.5M
Disney's Christopher Robin, $8.9M
BlacKkKlansman, $7.0M
Slender Man, $5.0M
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, $3.7M
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, $3.4M



PTA:
5 points - The Wife
4 points - We the Animals
3 points - Juliet Naked
2 points - Madeline's Madeline
1 point - Crazy Rich Asians





Predictions/obvseravations:

1. The Meg is a lead-pipe cert for $100M. It may even hit $130M.
2. MI-F has about a 70% shot at $200M.
3. Christopher Robin will top out around $80M
4. Equalizer 2 will not get to $100M, but it'll be close.
5. Incredibles 2 is now $5.8M away from $600M. I think Disney/Pixar will do whatever it takes (like Black Panther) to hit that milestone.




Celebrity birthdays this week:

Debra Messing turned 50 on 8/15
Angela Bassett turned 60 on 8/16
Madonna turned 60 on 8/16
Rumer Willis turned 30 on 8/16
Madeleine Stowe turned 60 on 8/18
Andy Samberg turned 40 on 8/18 (what happened to him??)
Diana Muldaur turned 80 on 8/19
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by Chienfantome »

Shrykespeare wrote:2. MI-F has about a 70% shot at $200M.
Call me an optimist because I have it on my FY draft slate, but it seems to me, considering how much advance this MI6 has on MI5 at the same point of release while MI5 finished at 195M, considering its great word of mouth, and considering how we all know that in late august, this kind of film holds extremely well in the middle of weaker releases, it seems to me, I said, that there is no scenario in which Mission Impossible Fallout doesn't reach $200M. Just for the sake of uncertainty, i'd give it a 99% chance of reaching $200M, but still.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Crazy Rich Asians, $26.5M ($35.3M 5-day) (5)
4 points - The Meg, $21.2M (9)
3 points - Mile 22, $13.7M (3)
2 points - Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $10.8M (16)
1 point - Alpha, $10.4M (1)
Disney's Christopher Robin, $8.9M
BlacKkKlansman, $7.4M
Slender Man, $4.8M
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, $3.8M
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, $3.4M



PTA:
5 points - The Wife, $27,071 (5)
4 points - We the Animals, $21,119 (4)
3 points - Juliet Naked, $15,222 (3)
2 points - Madeline's Madeline, $8,075 (7)
1 point - Crazy Rich Asians, $7,834 (1)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by Walleye413 »

Man I hope somebody picked We the Animals

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 8/15, 8/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Walleye413 wrote:Man I hope somebody picked We the Animals

Five players did. A great pickup for only $2.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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