Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 3rd-5th

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

Post Reply
User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 3rd-5th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Deep in the Hundred Acre Wood/Where Christopher Robin plays,
You’ll find the enchanted neighborhood/Of Christopher’s childhood days.

- Winnie the Pooh theme, Robert B. Sherman

With Disney dominating damn near every month (September still needs work), is it really a surprise that they placed a big tentpole in early August? But because no movie is ever safe (unless you combine 68 licensed characters in a single feature), distributors have made this weekend a somewhat busy one (this column was initially much longer) to write about. This week: three wide releases and three limiteds.

Last Week

Mission: Impossible – Fallout trounced the competition with a $61.2 million weekend. Second and third were last week’s sequels, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again ($15.1 million, 57% drop) and The Equalizer 2 ($14 million, 61% drop) while fourth was the sequel from two weeks ago, Hotel Transylvania 3 ($12.3 million, 48% drop). Fifth was Teen Titans Go! to the Movies, the feature-length version of the polarizing television series, which couldn’t translate positive reviews into a strong box office. The film came in below expectations with a $10.4 million opening.

On the PTA scene, McQueen held on strong to take the crown in its second weekend. Fallout was second while third was fellow opener Puzzle, a mild success in a struggling summer for Sony Picture Classics. Fourth was a still strong Eighth Grade before its wide expansion and holding up the rear was Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again.

This Week

Saint “Christopher”, Patron Saint of “Robin”s

The biggest release of the week has to be Disney’s Christopher Robin (Disney, of course). Christopher Robin is based on A.A. Milne’s Winnie the Pooh stories and stars Ewan McGregor as a grown-up Christopher Robin, who after losing his imagination as an adult, must be lured back into the Hundred Acre Wood by silly old Pooh Bear himself to regain those happy memories as an adult and also introduce those memories to his own family. Joining McGregor are Hayley Atwell (still in the Disney wheelhouse after the cancellation of Agent Carter), Jim Cummings (returning as Pooh and Tigger), Brad Garrett (taking over for the recently deceased Bud Luckey as Eeyore), Toby Jones (as Owl), Peter Capaldi (going from hating bears in the Paddington series to voicing a similarly cantankerous Rabbit), and Sophie Okonedo (as Kanga). The workmanlike Marc Forster directs while Alex Ross Perry (!) co-wrote the screenplay.

The premise sounds quite similar to 1991’s Hook, one of the more hotly-debated Spielberg films, in which a grown-up Peter Pan much return to Neverland to rescue his children and remember what he has forgotten as a result of becoming an adult. But despite some issues with the teaser trailer from audiences, the final trailer seems to have won over the skeptical as early buzz suggests another winner from Disney. In fact, I’ll go one step further and say this film will own August. The family film market is wide open, with only a pair of fringe indie films to compete with Christopher Robin, and with proven characters and the Disney brand name, you will be silly to bet against it.

Box Office Potential: tracking is expecting a weekend in the mid 30’s but I think it’s going to overperform. $40 million opening, $150 million finish.

Come “Spy” with Me

Next is Lionsgate’s hope for a hit similar to 2013’s The Heat, The Spy Who Dumped Me (Lionsgate). This comedy starring Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon is a spy comedy shot in Hungary focusing on two best friends who get in way over their head when the ex-boyfriend of Kunis’s character re-enters her life with a trail of assassins and the reveal that he works for the CIA. Hijinks ensue. Also starring are Justin Theroux, Gillian Anderson, Fred Melamed, and Olafur Darri Olafsson (did they raid the Lady Dynamite cast or what?).

Lionsgate has been selling this as a tale of female empowerment and has claimed that the film has tested well but all I’ve seen so far is another case of “this is what Hollywood thinks women act like” as the trailer sells this around the women running around screaming and arguing at each other. So basically, how John Mulaney thought Ocean’s 8 would turn out. In addition, I think said Ocean’s film also decreased interest in a film built around B-list stars with a feel that’s sure to suggest a lower-rent The Hitman’s Bodyguard. Lionsgate needs a big hit to save the company but I don’t think this is it.

Box Office Potential: this one has been a big toss-up but the mixed reviews and dated and confused approach hurt its appeal. $12 million opening, $30 million finish.

“Minds” Over Matter

Numero tres on the wide release docket is the sci-fi thriller The Darkest Minds (Fox), the live-action debut of Kung Fu Panda 2 & 3 director Jennifer Yuh Nelson. Based on a novel by Alexandra Bracken, the premise focuses on a plague killing most of the world’s children (old people on Facebook got their wish). The ones that remain develop superhuman powers and after evading an oppressive government, plan revenge after those who have killed their own generation. Amandla Sternberg, Mandy Moore, and Bradley Whitford are among the names in the cast.

This is a mixed bag in terms of possibilities. On one hand, you have a talented director and a timely premise despite the similarities to The Hunger Games, X-Men, and various other literary franchises. On the other hand, there’s been very little marketing and the young adult dystopian genre has seemingly played out after numerous imitations of the big franchises. But then again, I’m not the audience for this kind of thing. I really don’t know about this one.

Box Office Potential: for a supposed franchise starter, Fox has been very quiet on its promotion. I haven’t seen one trailer and only a few posters. Its chances are as dead as the youth in this film. $8 million weekend, $19 million finish.

Arthouse Class 101

This week, three limited releases.

The Miseducation of Cameron Post (FilmRise) – This film won the Grand Jury Prize at this year’s Sundance Film Festival. It is another timely premise with a 1990’s backdrop, featuring the theme of gay conversion therapy. Based on a book by Emily M. Danforth, this drama stars Chloe Grace “Never Turns Down a Project” Moretz as the titular character, a Montana teenager who falls in love with her best friend and is forced into a conversion camp by her conservative guardians. Co-starring are Sasha Lane, John Gallagher Jr., Jennifer Ehle, and Quinn Shepherd.

Despite praise (76 on Metacritic) and the award win, the film took some time to get distribution due to the director’s previous film (Appropriate Behavior) flopping and distributors still being cautious about handling lesbian-themed films. FilmRise, though with a large film library and considerable interest in VOD and other post-theatrical outlets (Amazon has plenty of streams and burned media of their product), has never handled a film with this much interest or acclaim. However, this is a film with an audience and though it might take some time (I had to wait over two months to see Disobedience), I think it’s got a lot in the tank.

You should get double digit PTA points and around $1 million in box office.

Never Goin’ Back (A24) – after successes such as Lady Bird and Hereditary, A24 returns to its first love: movies that don’t have much appeal outside of Williamsburg hipster stereotypes. This comedy, more or less a female-led version of classic slacker comedies like Friday and Superbad, focuses on a pair of Galveston high school dropouts who take a week’s vacation on the beach. Too bad fate’s out to catch up to them, as the rent’s due, they’re about to lose their jobs, they got robbed, and they’re broke. No stars appear in the film.

My question: are we supposed to care about these people? These characters read like stereotypes in a really bad film or in mainstream media exposes and critical reception hasn’t been glowing. I can’t see it having much success outside of the six people who watched Girls religiously and thought Lena Dunham was a good role model. Also, most of these films die in VOD land. A24 strangely isn’t sending this to DirecTV even though that’s where it would make its money.

2-3 PTA points and under a million in box office.

The Wife (Sony Pictures Classics) – Glenn Close makes another attempt to win an Oscar with this drama about the wife of a recent Nobel Prize winner who begins to question her life decisions on the way to Stockholm. Jonathan Pryce plays Close’s husband while Christian Slater, Max Irons, and Elizabeth McGovern also appear in support.

Screened at last year’s Toronto Film Festival to positive notice (76 on Metacritic), Sony decided not to open the film last Christmas, choosing instead to push Annette Bening’s performance in Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (a performance that ended up not being nominated). Will holding it back help its box office or get Close the notice that is certainly hoped? I’m going to say no on both fronts, though The Seagull did manage to make money despite sitting on the shelf for a few years before opening. It should open well but I wouldn’t expect much else when it expands.

4-6 PTA points and $1-2 million in box office.

Box Office: Christopher Robin, Mission: Impossible, The Spy Who Dumped Me, The Darkest Minds, Mamma Mia 2
PTA: …Cameron Post, The Wife, Christopher Robin, Never Goin’ Back, McQueen

Also in release are Nico 1988 (Magnolia), a biopic on the final days of the Velvet Underground project, Night Comes On (Samuel Goldwyn), a coming-of-age revenge tale focused on two sisters who seek to solve their mother’s death, Summer of ’84 (Gunpowder & Sky), yet another 80’s-inspired horror film, and a propaganda film that I will not bring attention to other than Pure Flix is releasing it like the director’s last “film”.

Next week, Six will take on four wide releases, The Meg (Warner Bros./New Line), Slender Man (Sony/Screen Gems), Dog Days (Annapurna/Mirror), and BlacKkKlansman (Focus), plus one limited release, Madeline’s Madeline (Oscilloscope). They live, we sleep.

Box Office Memories:

2008: In a close contest, The Dark Knight overcame a Friday loss to beat The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, $42.7 million to $40.4 million. At this point, the highly-popular comic book adaptation had made $393.8 million. Third was Step Brothers, dropping 47% from its opening weekend total to $16.5 million. Fourth was Mamma Mia, continuing to serve as strong counterprogramming with a $12.6 million take ($87.5 million total). And rounding out the top five was another Brendan Fraser film, Journey to the Center of the Earth, making $6.7 million in its fourth frame ($72.9 million total). Finishing in sixth was the weekend’s only other wide opener, the Kevin Costner political comedy Swing Vote, grossing $6.2 million.

Winning the PTA crown in its 150th week (that’s almost three years) was the Tom Hanks-narrated IMAX documentary Magnificent Desolation with a $16,924 average in three theatres. Taking second was Brad Anderson’s rail-set thriller Transsiberian, making $13,500 per in two theatres on its third weekend. Third was Man on Wire, James Marsh’s Oscar winning documentary on Philippe Petit, scoring $12,119 per in four locations. Fourth with The Mummy while U2 3D rounded out the top five with a $10,631 number in six locations.

1998: Steven Spielberg’s D-Day masterpiece Saving Private Ryan held onto the top spot with a $23.6 million second weekend, dropping only 23% from the previous weekend. Second place and best of the openers was Nancy Meyers’ remake of The Parent Trap, making $11.1 million ($16.2 million in five days) and launching the career of Lindsay Lohan in the process (remember when she was notable for her acting and not being a trainwreck?). Third was There’s Something About Mary, still hanging around in its third weekend with $10.9 million ($60.1 million total). Fourth and fifth were both openers, The Negotiator with $10.2 million ($13.1 million in five days) and Ever After with $8.5 million. The fourth opener, David Zucker’s sports comedy BASEketball, was a shoot-and-a miss with $3.1 million (I remember that this was supposed to be one of the hits of that summer, oops).

In the PTA scene, Everest won again. Second was Darren Aronofsky’s Pi, averaging over $10,000 in 25 sites in its fourth week. Third was the Minnie Driver historical drama The Governess, with a nice $9,633 average in six locations, fourth was Saving Private Ryan, and fifth was a reissue of Fellini’s Nights of Cabiria with a $9,286 clip in five theatres (only $6 behind Ryan).

1988: Cocktail poured and reigned the weekend with $11.8 million at the box office. Disney also had second place as previous champ Who Framed Roger Rabbit took in $6.6 million ($95.3 million total). Show was Coming to America with $6.4 million ($92 million total). Fourth was Die Hard, dropping only 14% in its second weekend of wide release to $6.1 million. And coming up the rear was Midnight Run, holding steadily with a 16% drop to $4.9 million. The weekend other two openers, Monkey Shines and The New Adventures of Pippi Longstocking, flopped to the tune of $1.9 million and $0.9 million, respectively (the latter was matinees only but still).

In the limited scene, A Fish Called Wanda scored in an expansion to nearly 200 theatres, averaging $10,438 per and beating second place Cocktail by more than $2,000. Die Hard, Who Framed Roger Rabbit, and Midnight Run followed.
Last edited by Buscemi2 on July 31st, 2018, 2:47 am, edited 2 times in total.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 3rd-5th

Post by Buscemi2 »

A slight amendment: it looks like The Wife has been pushed to August 17th, according to Metacritic.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 3rd-5th

Post by numbersix »

I remember Pete's Dragon having a similar buzz and failing to deliver in its August release. Granted, Winnie the Pooh is a more recognised name but it hasn't been a huge franchise when it comes to feature films, particularly the last film. Iinitially my gut was a mid 20s opening. Maybe it could go higher but a 40m opening is bold. I'm not so sure.

The Spy Who Dumpd Me could open a little higher. Opening it 2 weeks after Mamma Mia 2 seems like a bad idea, though.

I'm cautious on The Miseducation of Cameron Post. It's a good film, but can Filmrise do it justice, considering they tend not to put much into a film?

Predictions
1. Christopher Robin - $30m
2. Mission Probably 6 - $29m
3. The Spy who Dumped ME - $16m
4. Mamma Mia 2 - $8.5m
5. The Darkest Minds - $7.5m

PTA: Cameron Post, Chris Robin, MI6, Mcqueen, Never Goin Back

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7731
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 3rd-5th

Post by transformers2 »

I can't get a read on The Spy Who Dumped Me. Lionsgate has promoted it well and its premise seems like something an audience could be attracted to, but the inexplicable box office curse that Kate McKinnon seems to have combined with the fact that it's opening in the shadow of Mamma Mia! has me doubting its ability to be the breakout film in a month that's full of wild cards.


Christopher Robin should do fine, but I'd be really surprised if it got to $150 mil. Somewhere around $110-120 mil seems much more feasible.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 3rd-5th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts

Disney's Christopher Robin - 3,602
The Darkest Minds - 3,127
The Spy Who Dumped Me - 3,111
Death of a Nation - 1,002

Eighth Grade - 1,084




Next week:

The Meg - 3,900+
Slender Man - 2,000+
BlacKkKlansman - 1,500





Milestone birthdays:

Jean Reno turned 70 on 7/30
Terry Crews turned 50 on 7/30
Daniel Dae Kim turns 50 on 8/4
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Ron Burgundy
Red Redding
Posts: 2466
Joined: November 23rd, 2009, 7:27 am
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 3rd-5th

Post by Ron Burgundy »

I've been going back and forth with Chris Robin, BOM has probably confirmed my lastest fears, its not even going to win the weekend. I think a $25 mil OW is solid, but definately nothing to anchor you slate with. Spy who dumped me looks like a dud, i think it would have done better in late August.
“One time I wrestled a giraffe to the ground with my bare hands.” — Dale

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 3rd-5th

Post by Buscemi2 »

But I wouldn't anchor with Venom either, of which I've seen a number do. Everything about that film screams bomb, especially since it's facing A Star is Born, which has had nothing but positive buzz lately.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 3rd-5th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Christopher Robin: A
The Darkest Minds: B
The Spy Who Dumped Me: B
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 3rd-5th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Mission: Impossible, $9.8M
Christopher Robin, $9.5M
Spy Who Dumped Me, $5M
Mamma Mia 2, $2.8M
Equalizer 2, $2.4M
Hotel Transylvania 3, $2.4M
Darkest Minds, $2.3M
Ant-Man 2, $1.8M
Incredibles 2, $1.4M
Teen Titans Go!, $1.4M
Jurassic World 2, $1.1M
Eighth Grade, $1M



Weekend Projections:

Mission: Impossible, $33.0M
Christopher Robin, $27.7M
Spy Who Dumped Me, $12.7M
Mamma Mia 2, $8.9M
Equalizer 2, $8.4M
Hotel Transylvania 3, $8.2M
Ant-Man 2, $6.0M
Darkest Minds, $5.6M
Incredibles 2, $5.0M
Teen Titans Go!, $4.5M
Jurassic World 2, $2.7M
Eighth Grade, $2.7M



Not sure how they managed it, but it looks like Black Panther is going to get enough coin this weekend to cross that vaunted $700M line.

Incredibles 2 has a slim chance at cracking $600M.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom crossed $400M this week.

Looks like Ant-Man and the Wasp will hit $200M after all.

Mission: Impossible - Fallout looks like it has a decent shot at $200M.

Hotel Transylvania 3 has an outside shot at $150M.

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! is a lock for $100M. Equalizer 2 will fall just short.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 3rd-5th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $35.0M
4 points - Disney's Christopher Robin, $25.0M
3 points - The Spy Who Dumped Me, $12.3M
2 points - Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again!, $9.1M
1 point - The Equalizer 2, $8.8M
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, $8.2M
Ant-Man and the Wasp, $6.2M
The Darkest Minds, $5.8M
Incredibles 2, $5.0M
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, $4.9M




PTA:
5 points - The Miseducation of Cameron Post
4 points - Puzzle
3 points - Mission: Impossible - Fallout
2 points - Disney's Christophe Robin
1 point - McQueen

Never Goin' Back just missed (but no one picked it anyway).
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 3rd-5th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $35.3M (10)
4 points - Disney's Christopher Robin, $24.6M (4)
3 points - The Spy Who Dumped Me, $12.1M (3)
2 points - Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again!, $9.0M (10)
1 point - The Equalizer 2, $8.8M (9)
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, $8.0M
Ant-Man and the Wasp, $6.4M
The Darkest Minds, $5.8M
Incredibles 2, $5.0M
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, $4.8M




PTA:
5 points - The Miseducation of Cameron Post, $24,319 (5)
4 points - Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $8,037 (8)
3 points - Puzzle, $7,674 (6)
2 points - Disney's Christopher Robin, $6,825 (2)
1 point - McQueen, $5,342 (10)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

Post Reply