SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/16

[Shrykespeare]

As we near the start of the 2010 summer season, questions are already abounding… can Iron Man 2 measure up to its predecessor, or will it fall short? Will Shrek Forever After send the series out with a bang or a whimper? How big will Toy Story 3 be? Just what the hell is Inception even ABOUT, anyway? And of course, “Who is Salt”?

In a couple of weeks, I will be doing my customary (meaning, once every few months) column, wherein I will be counting down my Ten Most Anticipated films of the Summer Season (May-Aug). Prior to that, however, is the weekend of April 16th, which will herald the arrival of two new wide-release films as well as two limited-release films. So as a colonel-garbed Graham Chapman would no doubt say right now, “GET ON WITH IT!!”

For those of you who don’t know, Mark Millar is an award-winning comic book writer from Scotland. Having penned notable titles for both DC and Marvel Comics over the last ten years, he is also an entrepreneur; in 2004, he launched a creator-owned line called “Millarworld”, a venture that was published simultaneously by four different, competing comic-book companies. One of Millarworld’s most successful projects, a comic book called Kick-Ass, has now been turned into a full-length feature film by Lionsgate.

The marketing blitz for this film has quite adequately hammered home the theme of this film: namely, a group of very different individuals who, despite having no super-powers whatsoever, decide to become costumed crime-fighters even though doing so is an incredibly dangerous enterprise. The film centers mostly on Dave Lizewski (Aaron Johnson), a comic geek who decides that becoming a superhero isn’t such a far-fetched idea after all. Creating a green-and-yellow body suit and calling himself (duh) “Kick-Ass”, he throws himself into his fantasy, though not always with stellar success.

But what he lacks in actual fighting skills is made up for by his increasing Internet popularity. Said popularity brings other crime-fighters out of the woodwork, including an 11-year-old sword-wielding young girl named Hit-Girl (Chloe Moretz), her brooding father “Big Daddy” (Nicolas Cage), and a character calling himself Red Mist (Christopher Mintz-Plasse). They all seem to have a common enemy, the head of the local crime syndicate, Frank D’amico (Sherlock Holmes’ Mark Strong), who wants nothing more than to be rid of the would-be heroes once and for all.

There’s an awful lot to like about this as a film: superheroes, underdogs, good vs. evil, and TONS of violence. Yes, folks, Kick-Ass is rated R for a reason: buckets of violence, gore, and profanity (especially from Hit-Girl, who swears like a sailor on shore leave). It certainly seems to have “cult classic” written all over it. But doesn’t the very definition of “cult classic” somewhat preclude box office success? That is the question.

Scheduled to bow in just over 3,000 theaters on Friday, I honestly think the majority of the superhero aficionados that make up a significant portion of filmgoers will give this one a look. The rating may make its total output lower than a watered-down PG-13 version might have been, but as it stands, I predict $21 million for Kick-Ass's first three days. I wish I could say that it has a great chance to hold on in ensuing weeks… I wish I could say that. But the truth is, only one week later, we will see another action film bow that is based on a series of comic books, that being The Losers. And that one is also being advertised quite well, and that one IS rated PG-13. Whether it will pack the teenage punch that Kick-Ass does remains to be seen.

As it stands, I think this would be a very good pick for your Ultimate slates. For only $14, you could pick up as many as nine or ten Top 5 points, probably at least a couple PTA, and an outstanding User Rating (which currently stands at 8.3 with nearly 6,000 votes, so you can be sure that it won’t be dropping dramatically). I’m not sure I’d quite recommend spending $15 on it in Box Office, however… I think it will only make $50 million in three weeks, maximum, after which Iron Man 2 will send Kick Ass to its room with no more supper.

In 2007, well-known director and Muppeteer Frank Oz helmed a black comedy about a family who reunites after their patriarch passes away. Bringing with them enough emotional baggage to fill the hold of a 747, the ensuing confrontations succeed in bringing to light some truly sordid details about pretty much everyone in this truly dysfunctional family, including the deceased. The film made only $8.6 million in the United States, however.

Three years later, director Neil LaBute (Nurse Betty, Lakeview Terrace) has remade Death at a Funeral for American audiences; the biggest difference being, it’s not only a black comedy, it’s also a “black” comedy. That’s right, the cast is primarly African-American, including some very noticeable names, including Chris Rock, Martin Lawrence, Tracy Morgan, Keith David, Danny Glover, Loretta Devine, Regina Hall, Zoe Saldana and Columbus Short. Also present are Luke Wilson, James Marsden and, in a brilliant piece of casting, diminutive actor Peter Dinklage as the patriarch’s secret gay lover, who shows up at the funeral to blackmail the family to keep their relationship a secret (a role he also played in the British version).

Well, Why Did I Get Married Too? has amassed nearly $50 million in two weekends (typical of a Tyler Perry movie), but Neil LaBute doesn’t quite have the same clout. If Death at a Funeral succeeds, it will only be because of face recognition: having Rock, Lawrence and Morgan in the same movie is certain to draw some pretty big crowds… initially, anyway. Funeral is getting a slightly larger release than Married did (about 2,400 theaters), but I honestly don’t foresee this film finishing higher than #3 this weekend, especially given just how well How to Train Your Dragon is holding (it dropped less than 13% in its third weekend).

It’s only $9 in Ultimate, but that’s not enough to spend on a film that will get no more than five Top 5 points, $35 million and a godawful User Rating. Like most African-American comedies, it would seem to be a better pick in Box Office… but not in this case. Instead of spending $10 on this, you’d be better served spending the money on The Losers or A Nightmare on Elm Street, titles that are far, far more likely to win its weekend than this will.

Coming in limited release this week is The Joneses, which marks the directorial debut of Derrick Borte. It stars Demi Moore and David Duchovny as Katie and Steve Jones, who along with their kids Jenn (Amber Heard) and Mick (Ben Hollingsworth) move into what is the seemingly perfect suburban neighborhood, a milieu for which they seem to be the perfect fit.

No, this isn’t one of those twists where the neighborhood is actually evil or different, like in Hot Fuzz or The Stepford Wives. Actually, it’s The Joneses themselves who are not what they seem. They are not really a family at all: they are impostors, salespeople hired by a marketing company to infiltrate suburbia and almost subliminally pitch new luxury-level products to them. (Wow, that’s insidious…) On the surface, it almost sounds like a viral marketing video, but there’s a little more to it, especially when “Steve” actually starts developing feelings for “Katie”, which was definitely not in the job description. Gary Cole, Glenne Headly and Lauren Hutton round out the cast.

So far, the reception has been rather lukewarm – A 6.7 User Rating with just under 200 votes at IMDb and only two reviews (one good, one bad) in the can at RT. It’s a relatively harmless investment at only $3 in Ultimate, or so it would seem… Box Office Mojo has it coming out in just shy of 200 theaters, which rather puts it right out of range for any meaningful chance for PTA points. Sorry to say, if you gamble on it, it’s The Joneses who won’t be keeping up. (Had to throw that in.)

A film with far, far more prospects is Handsome Harry, an indie film from little-known Paladin Pictures. I am unclear as to just how many screens it will be debuting on, but if it’s less than twenty, I would snap this up in a flash, not the least of which would be for its low price tag ($3 in Ultimate) but for its exceptional User Rating (8.6 with well over 700 votes).

The titular Harry is played by Law & Order: Criminal Intent vet Jamey Sheridan, a Vietnam vet, divorcee and monument to aloofness. He has few relationships, is estranged from his son, and clearly haunted by something. One day, he is summoned to the deathbed of his friend Tom (Steve Buscemi), an old Navy pal, who tells him to find another old friend named Dave (Campbell Scott), so that they can atone for a terrible deed they and a few others did when they were youthful military brats. Aidan Quinn, John Savage and Titus Welliver (Deadwood) also co-star.

I’ve read both reviews for this film (one very positive, the other slightly less), and they paint Handsome Harry as a film the rides on the backs of the terrific performances by its cast, especially Sheridan. Though the plot may seem simplistic, the emotional burdens that youthful indiscretions carry can often take their toll even decades later, and this seems to be the kind of film that explores that. I would definitely consider adding this to your April slates, if you haven’t already. (If you didn’t already know, Leaves of Grass was pulled, and this is as good a title to replace it with as any.)


My predictions for the weekend of April 16-18, 2010:

1. Kick-Ass - $21 million
2. How to Train Your Dragon - $18 million
3. Death at a Funeral - $15 million
4. Date Night - $14 million
5. Clash of the Titans - $13 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, my plate will be plenty full as I tackle a myriad of titles, including: The Losers, a comic-book based action film starring Zoe Saldana, Jeffrey Dean Morgan and Idris Elba; The Back-Up Plan, a pregnancy comedy starring Jennifer Lopez and TV hunk Alex O’Loughlin; Oceans, a DisneyNature documentary debuting on Earth Day (Thursday); as well as limited-release features Boogie Woogie, Mercy, Let it Rain and The Good, The Bad and The Weird.

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'm going to say that Death At A Funeral opens higher. Its Facebook page already has over 160,000 fans (the most that I've probably ever seen before a release) and the fact that they managed to get Chris Rock and Martin Lawrence together in a movie should easily promise a $20 million opening.

Also, I'm betting that Kick-Ass opens with at least $30 million. Lionsgate is even doing Thursday night advance screenings (the movie opens at 10:00 pm on Thursday) to satisfy the buzz.

[Geezer]

I can tell you this, Kick-Ass will be the very first movie released during this calender year that I will be seeing... I don't know if that says more about the films released this year, or just my lack of time, but it does say something.

[silversurfer19]

Kick Ass has been buzzing over here since the first sneak previews a couple of weeks ago. I guarantee this movie will be a huge success, and with excellent holds (I wouldn't be surprised if it competes very well against The Losers). I reckon $30m OW with close to $100m total. It will be the Superbad of 2010.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I don't see in Kick Ass what you guys see in it, I guess. I doubt it'll win the weekend, and I highly doubt it'll come anywhere near $100M. It's buzz is big with movie fans (and even then, all the buzz belongs to Hit-Girl), and the TV spots and trailers do nothing for me, personally. It'll really have to depend on its WOM.

I think Death At A Funeral has the better shot at winning the weekend, depending on how Date Night drops. An R-rated out-and-out comedy with Chris Rock, Martin Lawrence, and Tracy Morgan? I think it'll open in the low 20s.

[Buscemi]

Kick-Ass had a pretty monster opening in the UK (£3,881,704 in 402 theatres for a £9,655 per theatre average, which in US dollars equals to $6,000,454 and a PTA of $14,927). And keep in mind that in the UK, children under 15 are prohibited to see Kick-Ass.

Meanwhile with the US rating system being less restrictive and more theatres running it, we could actually see a $40-50 million ceiling on it.

[numbersix]

Kick Ass had a great response over here and in the UK. Everyone who saw it loved it. There's definitely a fanboy buzz happening, so I can see it opening at about 25-28 million, and actually not dropping much despite The Losers. I just think word-of-mouth will keep it afloat whereas I'm expecting poor reviews for The Losers.

As for Death at a Funeral, I'd agree with you but tracking seems to have it opening from 18-22 mil!

i'm also not convinced by Hansome Harry's prospects. I suspect it'll fade away and maybe make 1 PTA point if it's lucky. I think Clash, Kick Ass, Death, and the Square will all earn PTA points this weekend.

[Buscemi]

The Losers should manage a decent, if not great, opening. It looks like the only opener next week with any potential (Oceans will do respectable for a documentary but The Back-Up Plan is DOA).

[transformers2]

I'm with Banks I really don't see the mass appeal on Kick-Ass and If I hadn't seen the Red Band trailers I proably wouldn't seen to see it. I am going to say low to mid 20 opening with around 60-70 mill total.

Death At A Funeral is also puzzling. Every movie I have seen the trailer attached to people loved the trailer plus Chris Rock,Tracy Morgan and Martin Lawerence in the same film could help. I am very unsure how this film will do.

[W]

Kick-Ass = $90-100 M overall. Basically the way some of my slates went it was either this or Date Night and I think besides one Date Night I changed the rest to Kick Ass and I'm glad that I did. I used to see this as a more "underground" film, but I think it is going to perform well. UR is going to be much higher. It will bring in a bigger gross, which I didn't think possible at one point. And with a win this weekend

Death at a Funeral = the first African American film I've wanted to see for a long while (that I can think of). The only things I can see that could go wrong with it is the Tyler Perry film opening and a lower than should be user rating.

[Buscemi]

The new Tyler Perry movie won't affect Death At A Funeral. General reaction to Why Did I Get Married Too? has been very negative.

[W]

It still had a $20+ million opening and many people don't go to the theater more than a couple of times a year. That's why its a slight concern to me.

[Buscemi]

Early Friday Numbers (from Deadline.com):

Here's the Top 10 (numbers will be refined Saturday AM):
1. Kick-Ass (Lionsgate) NEW
Friday $7.5M, Estimated Weekend $19M

My opinions: the fact that the film opened in the US two weeks after everyone else hurt this one. Also it probably didn't help that Lionsgate (under a possible takeover) distributed rather than foreign distributor Universal. In short: piracy and not enough mainstream marketing hurt it.

2. Death At A Funeral (Screen Gems/Sony) NEW
Friday $6M, Estimated Weekend $17.5M

My opinions: a little disappointing but probably expected. The R rating isn't helping matters.

3. Date Night (Fox) Week 2
Friday $5.7M (-37%), Estimated Weekend $17.5M, Estimated Cume $48.8M

My opinions: I was seriously hoping for a 50% drop on this. The fact that the average American would rather see this than Kick-Ass is saddening.

4. Clash Of The Titans (Warner Bros) Week 3
Friday $4.4M (-47%), Estimated Weekend $14.5M, Estimated Cume $131.5M

5. How To Train Your Dragon DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) Week 4
Friday $4.2M (-40%), Estimated Weekend $15.5M, Estimated Cume $154M

[numbersix]

Not sure about the piracy, Buscemi. Do people honestly watch jerky camera footage? I thought the big problem with piracy is when R5's, synced sound bootlegs, and DVD screeners are released? Just looking at Pirate Bay's Top 100 torrents, and Kick Ass isn't there. You're probably more accurate about marketing.

[J.I.]

Looking at Box Office Guru and DHD, it looks like you had some really good predictions, Shryke. But it is weird that Date Night is holding up so well.

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