SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/20
Posted: July 17th, 2018, 5:29 pm
Last weekend saw The Rock topple from his peak as his action vehicle Skyscraper collapsed at its, opening to a smidge under $25m, meaning foreign intake will have to prop up this leaning tower. Meanwhile, safety prevailed as families flocked to see a Romanian vampire in the Med, with Hotel Transylvania 3 sailing into a solid $44m. Meanwhile the indie scene proved that old men writing teen girls is still a thing, as Eighth Grade opened with an impressive $60K per theatre average. But enough of the past, and onto three films whose existence depended on said past.
Has there been a film sub-title which so aptly sums up the mind of the attending male significant other as Mamma Mia 2: Here We Go Again? Universal has sensibly taken the original, given zero fucks, and recreated it with a speck of a plot in order to string together a bunch of songs from the Swedish death-cult known as Abba.
Whatever cynicism I have about the film’s quality, it’s nothing compared to my box office expectations. The first film crept towards $150m, and while this film doesn’t have Meryl Streep (instead dealing with her character as a young woman), it does have Cher which is probably a bigger draw for its target audience. With the singalong screenings of The Greatest Showman being responsible for its massive success, expect MM2 to do something similar. An opening in the 30s and a cume around the $100m is my conservative estimate, which is good for $18/21 in BO. In Ultimate ($18/19) that also gives it 9 T5 points, 4 PTA, and an IMDB score in the low 6s. When all is said and done, this film is gonna make you some money money money, so take a chance and lay all your love (and money) on it. I feel dirty...
Targeting the schlongs is counter-programmer The Equalizer 2 (Sony). While disappointingly not a tribute to Ronaldo’s last-minute hat-trick in Portugal’s game during Spain this World Cup, it is instead about Denzel arming himself to the teeth and gunning down whatever nasty gent winds his way towards him. Apparently, in the sequel it gets personal. So far, so tired, and there’s a sense that director Antoine Fuqua is dialing it in for the money and/or opportunity to make one of his pet projects. That normally doesn’t put a film like this in danger, however the big problem is competition. With Ant-Man 2 and Skyscraper attracting the younger action fans, next week pretty much everyone will be turning up to see Tom Cruise run through another Mission: Quite Likely. So don’t expect this film to come close to the original’s $101m. In fact, a low 20s opening and a cume not far beyond $50m is more likely. That’s just not going to deliver anything for the $11-14 you’ll be expected to fork out.
And finally, Unfriended 2: Dark Web is going to need a lot of likes to be of any worth to you. But with BH Tilt releasing it, don’t expect it to earn much more than $15m in total, making it the Bebo of film sequels.
Blindspotting (Lionsgate/Summit) tops this weekend of strong limited releases. Accompanied by great reviews coming out of Sundance, this is one of the best breakout chances of the festival. Dealing with issues of racism and corruption, it follows two Oakland buddies as one awaits freedom from probation while the other drums up trouble. Its dash of comedy amongst the searing social criticism has been a talking point. While it may not be this year’s The Big Sick, it should perform well. Despite its 14 theatre opening this weekend, it should be strong enough to dominate the PTA battle and earn more across the following weeks. It’s a must on your Ultimate slate, and may even be worth it in BO when those 2 or 3 bucks could result in a 10m total.
Two documentaries fight for sloppy seconds. McQueen (Bleecker St) tells the story not of the 60s action hero or the 19th Century Confederate judge, but of the famed fashion designer who met a tragic end a few years ago. This tale of rags to… er… rich rags has received stellar reviews and performed well in native nation the UK, and it boasts a current IMDB rating of 9. Depending on the screen count, this could come pretty close to Blindspotting, although its longevity won’t be as much.
Finally Generation Wealth (Magnolia) is an Amazon-funded documentary about people’s obsession with amassing money. A bit like this game, except with real purposes outside of gloating in text form. The ambitious documentary played in Sundance and Berlin, although its muted reviews (67% on RT) may impact its potential. That said, Magnolia managed to blow expectations with doc RBG, so some PTA could be in order.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Mamma Mia 2 - $32m
2. Hotel Trannies 2 - $22m
3. Equalizer 2 - $20m
4. Ant-Man and the Wasp - $15m
5. Skyscraper- $12m
PTA: Blindspotting, Eighth Grade, Mamma Mia 2, McQueen, Generation Wealth
Next week, Walleye checks out just how many times the public can watch the same Tom Cruise film over and over with Mission Impossible: Fallout, odd TV cartoon adaptation Teen Titans Go to the Movies, and lone limited release Puzzle.
Has there been a film sub-title which so aptly sums up the mind of the attending male significant other as Mamma Mia 2: Here We Go Again? Universal has sensibly taken the original, given zero fucks, and recreated it with a speck of a plot in order to string together a bunch of songs from the Swedish death-cult known as Abba.
Whatever cynicism I have about the film’s quality, it’s nothing compared to my box office expectations. The first film crept towards $150m, and while this film doesn’t have Meryl Streep (instead dealing with her character as a young woman), it does have Cher which is probably a bigger draw for its target audience. With the singalong screenings of The Greatest Showman being responsible for its massive success, expect MM2 to do something similar. An opening in the 30s and a cume around the $100m is my conservative estimate, which is good for $18/21 in BO. In Ultimate ($18/19) that also gives it 9 T5 points, 4 PTA, and an IMDB score in the low 6s. When all is said and done, this film is gonna make you some money money money, so take a chance and lay all your love (and money) on it. I feel dirty...
Targeting the schlongs is counter-programmer The Equalizer 2 (Sony). While disappointingly not a tribute to Ronaldo’s last-minute hat-trick in Portugal’s game during Spain this World Cup, it is instead about Denzel arming himself to the teeth and gunning down whatever nasty gent winds his way towards him. Apparently, in the sequel it gets personal. So far, so tired, and there’s a sense that director Antoine Fuqua is dialing it in for the money and/or opportunity to make one of his pet projects. That normally doesn’t put a film like this in danger, however the big problem is competition. With Ant-Man 2 and Skyscraper attracting the younger action fans, next week pretty much everyone will be turning up to see Tom Cruise run through another Mission: Quite Likely. So don’t expect this film to come close to the original’s $101m. In fact, a low 20s opening and a cume not far beyond $50m is more likely. That’s just not going to deliver anything for the $11-14 you’ll be expected to fork out.
And finally, Unfriended 2: Dark Web is going to need a lot of likes to be of any worth to you. But with BH Tilt releasing it, don’t expect it to earn much more than $15m in total, making it the Bebo of film sequels.
Blindspotting (Lionsgate/Summit) tops this weekend of strong limited releases. Accompanied by great reviews coming out of Sundance, this is one of the best breakout chances of the festival. Dealing with issues of racism and corruption, it follows two Oakland buddies as one awaits freedom from probation while the other drums up trouble. Its dash of comedy amongst the searing social criticism has been a talking point. While it may not be this year’s The Big Sick, it should perform well. Despite its 14 theatre opening this weekend, it should be strong enough to dominate the PTA battle and earn more across the following weeks. It’s a must on your Ultimate slate, and may even be worth it in BO when those 2 or 3 bucks could result in a 10m total.
Two documentaries fight for sloppy seconds. McQueen (Bleecker St) tells the story not of the 60s action hero or the 19th Century Confederate judge, but of the famed fashion designer who met a tragic end a few years ago. This tale of rags to… er… rich rags has received stellar reviews and performed well in native nation the UK, and it boasts a current IMDB rating of 9. Depending on the screen count, this could come pretty close to Blindspotting, although its longevity won’t be as much.
Finally Generation Wealth (Magnolia) is an Amazon-funded documentary about people’s obsession with amassing money. A bit like this game, except with real purposes outside of gloating in text form. The ambitious documentary played in Sundance and Berlin, although its muted reviews (67% on RT) may impact its potential. That said, Magnolia managed to blow expectations with doc RBG, so some PTA could be in order.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Mamma Mia 2 - $32m
2. Hotel Trannies 2 - $22m
3. Equalizer 2 - $20m
4. Ant-Man and the Wasp - $15m
5. Skyscraper- $12m
PTA: Blindspotting, Eighth Grade, Mamma Mia 2, McQueen, Generation Wealth
Next week, Walleye checks out just how many times the public can watch the same Tom Cruise film over and over with Mission Impossible: Fallout, odd TV cartoon adaptation Teen Titans Go to the Movies, and lone limited release Puzzle.