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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/20

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/20

Postby numbersix » July 17th, 2018, 5:29 pm

Last weekend saw The Rock topple from his peak as his action vehicle Skyscraper collapsed at its, opening to a smidge under $25m, meaning foreign intake will have to prop up this leaning tower. Meanwhile, safety prevailed as families flocked to see a Romanian vampire in the Med, with Hotel Transylvania 3 sailing into a solid $44m. Meanwhile the indie scene proved that old men writing teen girls is still a thing, as Eighth Grade opened with an impressive $60K per theatre average. But enough of the past, and onto three films whose existence depended on said past.




Has there been a film sub-title which so aptly sums up the mind of the attending male significant other as Mamma Mia 2: Here We Go Again? Universal has sensibly taken the original, given zero fucks, and recreated it with a speck of a plot in order to string together a bunch of songs from the Swedish death-cult known as Abba.

Whatever cynicism I have about the film’s quality, it’s nothing compared to my box office expectations. The first film crept towards $150m, and while this film doesn’t have Meryl Streep (instead dealing with her character as a young woman), it does have Cher which is probably a bigger draw for its target audience. With the singalong screenings of The Greatest Showman being responsible for its massive success, expect MM2 to do something similar. An opening in the 30s and a cume around the $100m is my conservative estimate, which is good for $18/21 in BO. In Ultimate ($18/19) that also gives it 9 T5 points, 4 PTA, and an IMDB score in the low 6s. When all is said and done, this film is gonna make you some money money money, so take a chance and lay all your love (and money) on it. I feel dirty...




Targeting the schlongs is counter-programmer The Equalizer 2 (Sony). While disappointingly not a tribute to Ronaldo’s last-minute hat-trick in Portugal’s game during Spain this World Cup, it is instead about Denzel arming himself to the teeth and gunning down whatever nasty gent winds his way towards him. Apparently, in the sequel it gets personal. So far, so tired, and there’s a sense that director Antoine Fuqua is dialing it in for the money and/or opportunity to make one of his pet projects. That normally doesn’t put a film like this in danger, however the big problem is competition. With Ant-Man 2 and Skyscraper attracting the younger action fans, next week pretty much everyone will be turning up to see Tom Cruise run through another Mission: Quite Likely. So don’t expect this film to come close to the original’s $101m. In fact, a low 20s opening and a cume not far beyond $50m is more likely. That’s just not going to deliver anything for the $11-14 you’ll be expected to fork out.




And finally, Unfriended 2: Dark Web is going to need a lot of likes to be of any worth to you. But with BH Tilt releasing it, don’t expect it to earn much more than $15m in total, making it the Bebo of film sequels.




Blindspotting (Lionsgate/Summit) tops this weekend of strong limited releases. Accompanied by great reviews coming out of Sundance, this is one of the best breakout chances of the festival. Dealing with issues of racism and corruption, it follows two Oakland buddies as one awaits freedom from probation while the other drums up trouble. Its dash of comedy amongst the searing social criticism has been a talking point. While it may not be this year’s The Big Sick, it should perform well. Despite its 14 theatre opening this weekend, it should be strong enough to dominate the PTA battle and earn more across the following weeks. It’s a must on your Ultimate slate, and may even be worth it in BO when those 2 or 3 bucks could result in a 10m total.




Two documentaries fight for sloppy seconds. McQueen (Bleecker St) tells the story not of the 60s action hero or the 19th Century Confederate judge, but of the famed fashion designer who met a tragic end a few years ago. This tale of rags to… er… rich rags has received stellar reviews and performed well in native nation the UK, and it boasts a current IMDB rating of 9. Depending on the screen count, this could come pretty close to Blindspotting, although its longevity won’t be as much.




Finally Generation Wealth (Magnolia) is an Amazon-funded documentary about people’s obsession with amassing money. A bit like this game, except with real purposes outside of gloating in text form. The ambitious documentary played in Sundance and Berlin, although its muted reviews (67% on RT) may impact its potential. That said, Magnolia managed to blow expectations with doc RBG, so some PTA could be in order.


Predictions for the weekend

1. Mamma Mia 2 - $32m
2. Hotel Trannies 2 - $22m
3. Equalizer 2 - $20m
4. Ant-Man and the Wasp - $15m
5. Skyscraper- $12m

PTA: Blindspotting, Eighth Grade, Mamma Mia 2, McQueen, Generation Wealth

Next week, Walleye checks out just how many times the public can watch the same Tom Cruise film over and over with Mission Impossible: Fallout, odd TV cartoon adaptation Teen Titans Go to the Movies, and lone limited release Puzzle.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby Walleye413 » July 17th, 2018, 5:55 pm

I'm really curious about Blindspotting. Daveed Diggs has a pretty massive Twitter following thanks to Hamilton fame. If this is a hit I'd love to track how much of the success could be traced back to that. I think it's going to do well, but maybe that's because I'm on his feed and I see all the love and retweets for the movie on my feed.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby Buscemi2 » July 17th, 2018, 7:19 pm

I don't see Hamiltrash flocking to Blindspotting, unfortunately. That kind of audience would never give a film like it a chance (the theatre kids I had classes with who were obsessed with Into the Woods had never heard of John Wick until long after it hit Blu-ray and that was a popular movie). Outside of that, I think Sorry to Bother You stole all its thunder with it opening first and being far better marketed (I only just saw a trailer for Blindspotting a week and a half ago).

And I really haven't seen much marketing for The Equalizer 2. I wouldn't be surprised to see it play like 2 Guns did.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby Shrykespeare » July 20th, 2018, 12:16 am

Theater Counts:

The Equalizer 2 - 3,388
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! - 3,317
Unfriended: Dark Web - 1,546
Blindspotting - 14
McQueen - 4



Next week:

Mission: Impossible - Fallout - 4,000
Teen Titans Go! To the Movie - 3,000+





Milestone birthdays:

Paul Verhoeven turned 80 on 7/18
Diana Rigg turned 80 on 7/20
Julianne Hough turned 30 on 7/20
Josh Hartnett turns 40 on 7/21
Justin Bartha turns 40 on 7/21
Terence Stamp turns 80 on 7/22 GENERAL ZOD!!
Madison Pettis turns 20 on 7/22
Happy 60th birthday Viggo Mortensen! (10/20/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby Buscemi2 » July 21st, 2018, 2:34 am

Cinemascores:

The Equalizer 2: A (original was an A-)
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!: A- (original was an A-)
Unfriended: Dark Web: C (original was a C)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » July 21st, 2018, 3:34 am

Buscemi2 wrote:Hamiltrash


This totally isn't a thing.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby Buscemi2 » July 21st, 2018, 3:51 pm

That's what the Hamilton fans call themselves. The Bronies of the musical scene.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby Shrykespeare » July 21st, 2018, 11:14 pm

Friday Estimates

Mamma Mia 2, $14.3M
Equalizer 2, $13.6M
Hotel Tranny 3, $6.7M
Ant-Man 2, $4.5M
Incredibles 2, $3.2M
Skyscraper 1, $3.1M
Jurassic World 2, $3.0M
The First Purge (3), $1.5M
Unfriended 0, $1.4M



Weekend Projections:

Mamma Mia 2, $39M
Equalizer 2, $Equlizer 2, $33.2M
Hotel Tranny 3, $21.8M
Ant-Man 2, $15.3M
Incredibles 2, $11.0M
Skyscraper 1, $10.6M
Jurassic World 2, $10.3M
The First Purge (3), $4.6M
Unfriended 0, $3.3M
Sorry to Bother You, $2.6M



PTA:
Blindspotting, $27K
Mamma Mia 2, $11K
Equalizer 2, $10K



Observations/predictions:

1. Well, it looks like Mamma Mia 2, is a shoo-in for blockbuster status. Huh. Good call, Boosh.

2. Great start for Denzel, though how it will fare next week against Senor Cruise will determine whether it can get to $100M. It'll certailny beat Six's predictions of $50M

3. Hotel Tranny 3 looks to be on pace for $130M, the lowest in the franchise, but still darn respectable nonetheless.

4. Does Ant-Man and the Wasp have the juice to get to $200M? I'm thinking not.

5. Incredibles 2 has zoomed past $550M. $580M looks about the final number.

6. Jurassic World 2 will squeak across $400M. Not too shabby.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby numbersix » July 22nd, 2018, 4:54 am

Yeah, i blew it on the Equalizer 2 call. Guess I underestimated Denzel's long-lasting appeal.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby Walleye413 » July 22nd, 2018, 10:02 am

So, will Mission Impossible make more than Ant-man? Stay tuned to find out my guess
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby Shrykespeare » July 22nd, 2018, 11:05 am

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - The Equalizer 2, $35.8M
4 points - Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, $34.4M
3 points - Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, $23.1M
2 points - Ant-Man and the Wasp, $16.1M
1 point - Incredibles 2, $11.5M
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, $11.0M
Skyscraper, $11.0M
The First Purse, $5.0M
Unfriended: Dark Web, $3.5M
Sorry to Bother You, $2.8M



PTA:
5 points - McQueen, $24,232
4 points - Eighth Grade, $24,072
3 points - Blindspotting, $23,750
2 points - The Equalizer 2
1 point - Mamma Mia: Here we Go Again!



So surprises at #1 in both categories! Bravo to the few players who picked McQueen (which were Shaan - who withdrew - and swarehouse, and that's it).

(Note: given the logjam of the Top 3, these numbers may change by tomorrow.)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby Shrykespeare » July 23rd, 2018, 7:09 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - The Equalizer 2, $36.0M (5)
4 points - Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, $35.0M (4)
3 points - Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, $23.8M (8)
2 points - Ant-Man and the Wasp, $16.5M (11)
1 point - Incredibles 2, $11.9M (19)
Skyscraper, $11.4M
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, $11.3M
The First Purge, $5.1M
Unfriended: Dark Web, $3.7M
Sorry to Bother You, $2.9M



PTA:
5 points - Eighth Grade, $24,975 (10)
4 points - McQueen, $24,719 (4)
3 points - Blindspotting, $24,024 (3)

Holy FUCK, that's close!

2 points - The Equalizer 2, $10,629 (2)
1 point - Mamma Mia: Here we Go Again!, $10,537 (1)

That's also close!!



In other news: I noticed that Black Panther was still showing at my local AMC. As of Sunday, it's total take stands at $699,932,307. Is there enough interest to push it over the top even though the thing is already out on DVD?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby Buscemi2 » July 23rd, 2018, 11:19 pm

Black Panther returned to some theatres this weekend in hopes that it would hit $700 million. However, the per theatre average was so abysmal that I feel Disney's going to admit defeat and just leave it be.

Unless it returns to IMAX screens on August 24th. There is currently nothing scheduled then (no way Alpha's going to get two weeks) and unless Kin is really expected to be a hit, Disney could offer it up to the theatres that couldn't get the Dark Knight reissue.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby undeadmonkey » July 24th, 2018, 12:52 pm

I don't understand why Disney is doing it. Does it makes such a big deal to say, the movie made $699M or it made $700M?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/2

Postby Shrykespeare » July 24th, 2018, 2:17 pm

undeadmonkey wrote:I don't understand why Disney is doing it. Does it makes such a big deal to say, the movie made $699M or it made $700M?


Not really. It's just cooler to say you reached a milestone.

Just like some sales guru decades ago realized that having prices ending in "$.99" sound cheaper to the ear then if they'd rounded it up to the next highest dollar.

I'm surprised Disney doesn't just give a few thousand of their employees a $20 gift card and a standing order to go see it.
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