TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

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BanksIsDaFuture
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TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Oh well hello there.

*insert Tony Stark - It's Good To Be Back From Iron Man 2.gif*

Man, let's see if I've still got it :D

The last weekend of June this year brought us what may be the oddest pairings of wide openers on the calendar for 2018: on one hand, we've got a sequel to the 2015 gritty, critically-lauded border thriller Sicario that's even bloodier and "grittier(?)" than its predecessor, and on the other hand, a kids' basketball movie based on a series of Pepsi ads starring one of the best players in the NBA slathered in Bad Grandpa-levels of old man makeup. The only thing I want more is a Sicario 3, starring Kyrie Irving's Uncle Drew slaughtering druglords in Mexico alongside Benicio del Toro in an equal amount of old man makeup. Sicario: Los Viejos Asesinos....is Nick Kroll available?

Sicario: Day of the Soldado, riding the wave of the original's post-theatrical second life, managed to outdo the 2015's opening, posting $19M - good enough for 3rd place this weekend. It doesn't have the critical acclaim of the first (a 63% RT vs the original's 93%), and is missing the star power of Emily Blunt and without the movie nerd-fandom of Denis Villeneuve - I doubt it'll have the 3.8 multiplier Sicario enjoyed in the fall. Faring a bit worse was Kyrie Irving's Uncle Drew, putting up $15.2M in 4th place; while that's better than I would've expected, it came in under predictions around the $18M mark. With Ant-Man 2 and Hotel Transylvania 3 coming in the next two weeks, it'll be hard for Uncle Drew to steal attention away from movie-going families this summer. At least the old man didn't join the Warriors this week - he'll get my respect for that, if nothing else.

Staying on top of the charts was Jurassic World 2:Jurassic Park 5: Falling Interest with a 2nd weekend drop of almost 60% and a semi-decent $60M. With a smaller opening and a bigger 2nd weekend drop than Jurassic World, JW2 may sputter out without hitting $350M this summer. Maybe that means they'll actually come up with a new idea for Jurassic World 3? The better performing sequel of the two, Pixar's The Incredibles 2, is still doing gangbusters with audiences - a 2nd place finish this weekend with $46M has put it at $440M so far. It'll easily become the first Pixar film to surpass $500M and, going by Disney's recent history, The Incredibles 3 will definitely hit theaters within the next 5 years. Rounding out the Top 5 is Ocean's 8, its $8M puts it at $114M so far - guaranteeing a George Clooney cameo in Ocean's 9.

PTA-wise, the Sundance hit, Leave No Trace, posted an impressive $24k average across 9 theaters and rightfully took its full 5 points in its opening frame. Bleecker Street is pushing it into roughly 35 theaters this weekend, but with it's critical acclaim, it'll still push the new limited offerings to the brink in a fight for that sweet, sweet 5 points.

Opening this weekend:

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The First Purge (Universal) - Is it smack dab in the middle of the summer in an even numbered year, vaguely around the 4th of July? Much like Halloween between the years of 2004 and 2010, this holiday means another installment of a "horror" series that's mostly an excuse for over-the-top violence. Happy Holidays! Opening on 3,000 theaters this Wednesday, as a present to America on its birthday, is The First Purge, a prequel (!) that explores how the idea of the Purge came about and how citizens of America first embraced the holiday (is it considered a holiday in-universe?). Much like every entry so far (except for Grillo returning for The Purge: Anarchy), there's a whole new cast to enjoy/fear their 12 hours of lawlessness. Oh shit - Marisa Tomei's in this one? That's kinda awesome, actually.

The Purge series has grown in box office receipts with every installment, but methinks that may come to end in Round 4. Did I parallel this series to Saw yet? Well, in case I didn't, Saw IV was the first entry to do less than its predecessor - and the unnecessary decision to make this Purge a prequel leads me to believe history will repeat itself here. The First Purge will be overshadowed this weekend by the latest Marvel installment, opening to a $20M OW ($32M 5-day) and ending around $65M. Opening in between a Pixar, a Jurassic World, and a Marvel movie will impact its Top 5 total, and it may end up with less than 4 total. Eking out perhaps a single PTA and an IMDb score hovering around 6.4 makes this a low level pick for any Super Leagues....but a decent midround pick for the Draft.



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Ant-Man and The Wasp (Disney) - The heavy hitter this weekend is the latest adventure of Mr. Really Little, but sometimes Mr. Really Fucking Big, and easily the least essential member of The Avengers: Ant-Man! Only two months after the universe altering evens of Infinity War, Disney is keeping the money train rolling along, splattering Ant-Man and The Wasp into 4,200 theaters.

Scott Lang (Paul Rudd) is on house arrest because he violated the Sokovia Accords (remember Civil War?) and teamed up with Captain America in defiance of the UN and General Ross. Cap went underground with Scarlet Witch and Falcon, but Scott Lang couldn't leave his daughter...so on goes the ankle bracelet. Except now his love interest, Hope (Evangeline Lilly), finally steps into her own as his partner as The Wasp, which is basically Ant-Man with boobs and wrist blasters. And not a second too soon because Hope's father, and inventor of the Ant suits, Hank Pym has accidentally released a brand new villain from the Phantom Realm that he lost his wife (and original Wasp) to decades ago. Ghost is basically the lady version of those weirdo twins from The Matrix Reloaded - Ghost (Hannah John-Kamen) can phase through matter and generally kick ass. So now Scott and Hope will suit up together to eventually defeat Ghost, while completely not having any impact on the incredibly important insane war happening in Wakanda at the same time.

The first Ant-Man opened to pretty low numbers back in 2015, at least when compared to Marvel standards. Since then, Ant-Man got some real shine in Captain America: Civil War, which probably lead many to go back and discover Ant-Man at home. Many expect Ant-Man and The Wasp to easily outdo that of the first installment, partially because Infinity War is still fresh in everyone's mind and some are bound to be curious on how this movie fits into the timeline. Tracking suggest Ant-Man will outdo Dr. Strange ($85M/$232M), which is believeable - especially with a prime July release date. Ant-Man and The Wasp should open to about $80M this weekend, racking up 16 Top 5 points, at least 5 PTA points, and a total of $225M before all's said and done.



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In Limited Release This Weekend....

Sorry To Bother You (Annapurna) - The PTA choice of the week is the directorial debut of 90's underground rapper, Boots Riley, and holder of the highest RT score of the week (100%): Sorry To Bother You. Starring rising stars Lakeith Stanfield (Get Out) and Tessa Thompson (Creed), down-on-his-luck telemarketer Cassius (Stanfield) lives in a garage, struggling to make ends meet in his love-life and at his dead end job. Until one day, he's schooled on how to get ahead as a telemarketer from veteran Langston (Danny Glover): using his "White" voice. Rapidly rising throughout the company with his newfound super power, Cassius struggles to become successful while remaining himself. Other than Stanfield and Thompson, Sorry To Bother You also employs the White voice of David Cross and Patton Oswalt as audible keys to success. With its aforementioned stellar reviews and a prime 15 theater opening, Sorry To Bother You should have no problem winning all 5 PTA points of the weekend.

However, it looks like Annapurna will aggressively expand Sorry To Bother You next weekend, which may severely limit its PTA chances past this weekend. Proceed with caution.


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Whitney (Roadside Attractions) - At first glance, this weekend's limited releases look to be a couple of heavy hitters in the PTA department. However, Roadside will be releasing Whitney into hundreds of theaters this weekend, really pushing the definition of "limited". It'll be in 5 theaters within a 20 minute drive of my house, so PTA points look to be out of the question here. However, Whitney is a well-reviewed documentary of an insanely popular and troubled superstar. Three summers ago, A24 slowly rolled out a very similar movie with Amy - the story of another uber-talented singer with drug problems that ultimately led to their premature death. A24 did too expand their doc very quickly to capitalize on the great WOM, and Amy finished with less than 10 PTA points. This weekend, Whitney won't even get to say it won any PTA weekend. Pass on this in all leagues.



Predictions for The Weekend of July 4th, July 7th-10th:

1. Ant-Man and The Wasp - $80M
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $30M
3. The Incredibles 2 - $28M
4. The First Purge - $20M ($32M 5-day)
5. Sicario: Day of the Soldado - $9M

PTA: Sorry To Bother You, Ant-Man and The Wasp, Leave No Trace, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, The Incredibles 2

Next week, another odd pairing of wide releases is tackled by Tranny, with The Rock in his one-legged Die Hard remake, Skyscraper, and Hotel Transylvania 3: Vacation. ( I honestly didn't know there was a Hotel Transylvania 2.) In limited release, we'll have two very well-reviewed festival hits, with Eighth Grade and Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far On Foot.
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undeadmonkey
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by undeadmonkey »

I don't get the purge franchise. Someone this past week mentioned (or i read it somewhere, i cant remember) 'you have 12 hours, you can commit any crime without consequence and nobody is robbing banks or the apple store? All people want to do is kill each other??'

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by Shrykespeare »

That's... a really good point, UDM. Huh.


Celebrity Birthdays:

Michael Stuhlbarg turns 50 on 7/5
Jorja Fox turns 50 on 7/7
Kevin Bacon turns 60 on 7/8
Billy Crudup turns 50 on 7/8
Jaden Smith turns 20 on 7/8 (wow)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by Buscemi2 »

The Purge movies are less horror films and more movies that the alt-right believe are real because they want to kill everyone they hate and get away with it. Go on Twitter and it seems like a quarter of the tweets are edgelord teenagers who want The Purge to be real. They've essentially become the new torture porn.

Also, there always seems to be a mass shooting every time one of these movies comes out.

As for the concept, I'm convinced James DeMonaco came up with the series after reading the reviews to Jack (yes, he co-wrote that movie).
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by Shrykespeare »

Buscemi2 wrote: Also, there always seems to be a mass shooting every time one of these movies comes out.
Do you have empirical data to back that up? Just curious.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm not saying that the films directly cause the shootings (though there are an increasing amount of people who are unable to tell the difference between reality and fantasy) but from observation, it seems as if there's a shooting around the time an excessively violent film such as The Purge or the Death Wish remake opens.

Remember the Orlando shooting? The third Purge movie opened three weeks later. The Las Vegas shooting? The Death Wish remake was pushed from Thanksgiving as a result. The school shooting in Florida? Death Wish opened two days later.

And of course, Columbine happened three weeks after The Matrix opened and forever changed how we see those trenchcoats Neo wore.

In addition, we had all those people who believed every lie Chris Kyle wrote in his memoirs and still defended him when it came out he was a racist who used his position to kill anyone who wasn't white.

If the media doesn't want to be implicated in glorifying killers or encouraging them, they shouldn't make so many movies, TV shows, or video games that make violence look fun and justifiable.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Obviously, guns don't kill people, The Purge movies kill people.

Checks out.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by W »

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:Obviously, guns don't kill people, The Purge movies kill people.

Checks out.
Yeah, I had a big thing written out this morning and then thought, "It's not worth it." Like randomly they're two movies he has a vendetta against and then throws Columbine in for good measure. Or how if you wanted to you could correlate them to literally any other genre or film. Or how do you connect a shooting from a man that killed many gay men because he struggled with his religion and sexuality, with a movie he may have never heard of that opened three weeks after his death?
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by Shrykespeare »

Wednesday (July 4) numbers:

Jurassic World, $11.5M
Incredibles 2, $9.6M
The First Purge (opening day), $9.3M
Sicario 2, $2.6M
Uncle Drew, $2.2M
Ocean's 8, $2.1M


Not sure what these numbers will translate to weekend-wise, esp. for The First Purge. It seems clear it will open at #4.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by Buscemi2 »

The media consistently refuses to implicate itself in events of mass violence or societal chaos. We need to stop with this whole "people kill people" nonsense because there are contributing factors. There are a lot of people who refuse to get help and in the process will use alternative outlets (film, video games, television, even the news and Internet) to channel their anger. This is why we get things like hate groups and copycat killers. People will influence others into believing the worst acts are acceptable and that they will become heroes. A person doesn't just wake up and say, "I'm going to go and kill a whole bunch of people today". There are factors. And a lot of it is from people who cannot tell the difference between reality and fantasy.

Copycat killers are a thing. People have been influenced by Taxi Driver, Scream, The Dark Knight (all movies I like), and many other forms of media to kill. And yes, there is at least one documented case of murder believed to have been influenced by The Purge.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by Ron Burgundy »

If there werent so many guns in America, people couldnt use them, nuff said.
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Ant-Man and the Wasp - 4,206
The First Purge - 3,031
Whitney - 454
Sorry to Bother You - 16


Next week:

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation - 4,000
Skyscraper - 3,800



Does anyone else remember a really horrible action movie from 1996 called Skyscraper starring (ugh) Anna Nicole Smith?
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by Buscemi2 »

I've heard of it. I haven't seen it though.

Wasn't Joe Estevez in it?
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: A-
The First Purge (polled Wednesday): B-
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Re: TAKE IT TO THE BANKS - THE FILMS OF 7/4 & 7/6

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Ant-Man and the Wasp, $33.8M
Incredibles 2, $9.8M
Jurassic World, $9.1M
The First Purge, $6.1
Sicario: Soldado, $2.3M
Uncle Drew, $2.2M
Ocean's 8, $1.7M



Weekend Projections:

Ant-Man and the Wasp, $79M
Increibles 2, $31M
Jurassic World, $31M
The First Purge, $18.5M
Sicario: Soldado, $7.3M
Uncle Drew, $6.3M
Ocean's 8, $5.4M
Tag, $3.3M
Won't You Be My Neighbor, $2.6M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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