Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

Post by transformers2 »

Boy do those pesky mutated dinosaurs keep taking a bite out of the box office or what?

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom managed to surpass industry expectations with an impressive $148 mil opening. While its unsurprisingly pacing behind its record-breaking (at the time) 2015 predecessor, Fallen Kingdom has still amassed an impressive $729 mil worldwide haul in its first 17 days of international release, ensuring that they'll be more dino adventures on the way before too long.

Elsewhere, The Incredibles2 continued its jaw-dropping run with an $80 mil sophomore weekend while Ocean's 8 cleared $100 mil in its 3rd weekend thanks to a solid hold (39%). Rounding out the top 5 was a group of grown men that use a child's game as a bonding tool ($8.2 mil, 45% drop from its OW) and a foul-mouthed, indestructible mercenary that dabbles in heroism ($5.3 mil, which was enough for DP's latest adventure to clear $300 mil).

On the arthouse side of things, summer's limited release woes continued as unconventional Elvis documentary The King and indie road trip comedy Boundaries both got off to underwhelming debuts of less than $15,000 per theater. While there admittedly hasn't been a ton of heavy-hitters released over the past two months, it's still kind of strange that only one film (American Animals) has managed to post an OW PTA of over $25k as the last weekend of June approaches.

Wide Releases:
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For the film buffs out there, the most attractive option on this rare blockbuster-free, late-June weekend is Sicario: Day of the Soldado (Sony/Columbia). Star Emily Blunt and director Denis Villeneuve are absent from this unlikely follow-up to the 2015 critical darling/modest commercial success, but Benicio del Toro, Josh Brolin, Jeffery Donovan and writer Taylor Sheridan have all returned for another grim exploration of how the United States government agencies go about handling the drug trade in Mexico. This installment, which was clearly conceived before Supreme Leader Trump became the greatest border watchdog in the history of mankind, is centered around a covert, US-sanctioned operation that involves kidnapping a powerful drug lord's daughter (Isabella Moner )with the hope of inciting a war between rival cartels in Mexico after discovering that these groups are helping smuggle terrorists over the border. Once the mission is compromised and Matt Graves (Brolin) orders the killing of the girl, government gun-for-hire Alejandro Gillick (del Toro) goes rogue to keep the innocent teenager from harm.

Soldado is kind of a tough film to forecast. On the plus side, the original was able to find a pretty passionate audience once it hit VOD/Blu-Ray/streaming, Sony has put forth a strong marketing campaign and early critical reaction has been pretty good (73% RT, 61 Metascore). However, this time of the year isn't typically kind to mid-budgeted films plus this installment has failed to replicate the strong buzz that the original had leading up to its fall release. I'm expecting a $16 mil opening, a pair of Top 5 points and PTA, an IMDB score in the low-to-mid 7's and a final gross around $45 mil. With the exception of APR-JUN leagues where it will run you a measly $5-6, Soldado can be skipped in both formats.


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Hey NBA fans: Were you among the overwhelmingly majority that wasn't satisfied with Warriors vs.Cavs: Part IV? Well, Uncle Drew (Lionsgate/Summit) has arrived to make you forget about that thoroughly underwhelming Finals by delivering some flashy buckets, over-the-top product placement and yucks for the whole family.

5x All-Star point guard/future alternative science professor at Woke University Kyrie Irving portrays the title character-a 70-year old man who can still ball like a 26-year old NBA star. The legend of Uncle Drew is rediscovered when a down-on-his-luck streetball manager (Lil Rel Howrey) is looking to assemble a team for a huge tournament at the iconic Rucker Park in Harlem after his longtime rival (Nick Kroll) steals his entire roster. After some persuasion, the duo embarks on a cross-country road trip to gather Drew's old team (Shaq, Reggie Miller, Chris Webber, Nate Robinson and Lisa Leslie, all retired professional basketball players) and subsequently show the world that your hardwood skills don't diminish once you lose control of your bladder and bowels.

It's hard to overlook Uncle Drew's sleeper potential. The NBA unsurprisingly advertised it non-stop throughout the playoffs (for non-fans, this was from mid-April through the beginning of this month) and while he isn't on the level of LeBron James or Kevin Durant, Irving is still a bonafide star in a league that has arguably never more popular than it is right now. The presence of rising comedy stars Howrey and Tiffany Haddish in the ensemble cast and better-than-expected early WOM also don't hurt. That being said, I'm still going to be a bit conservative with my predictions because I'm not sure how it will play with non-basketball fans. Pepsi Productions' labor of love should muster an OW of $18 mil, 4 Top 5 points, a PTA point or two, an IMDb user rating in the mid-5's and final BO tally of at least $45 mil. The logjam of big releases surrounding it make it a shaky ULT pick, but it's definitely work taking a filer on in BO if you have the space for it.


Limited Release:
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The odds of Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street) breaking that aforementioned indie slump are pretty damn good. This drama about a father and daughter (Ben Foster) who get forced out of their peaceful existence when the authorities discover them living in a Portland forest is writer/director Debra Granik's first narrative film since 2010's Best Picture-nominated Winter's Bone (aka the film that helped launch Jennifer Lawrence to prominence) and was met with glowing reviews (100% on RT, 84 on Metacritic) on the early 2018 festival circuit. Unless the theater count is outside single digits (which is unlikely, even though it is opening in 1 theater in Granik's hometown of Cambridge, MA in addition to NYC and LA), Leave No Trace is pretty much a lock to win this week's PTA crown. However, it could experience some tough sledding moving forward as a pair of buzzed-about indies (Sorry to Bother You and Whitney ) as well as Marvel's latest guaranteed sensation Ant-Man and the Wasp hit theaters next weekend. Ultimately, Leave No Trace should pick up at least 7 PTA points and an IMDB score in the low-to-mid's 7, which is more than enough to make it worth considering for your ULT slates.


Weekend Projections:
1.Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $63 mil
2.The Incredibles 2 $49 mil
3.Uncle Drew $18 mil
4.Sicario: Day of the Soldado $16 mil
5.Ocean's 8 $7 mil

PTA: Leave No Trace, Jurassic World, The Incredibles 2, Sicario, Uncle Drew

Tune in next week when Banks previews the Fantaverse viability of Ant-Man, The Wasp and a sea of Infinity War 2 teases, Sorry to Bother You, Whitney and the latest installment of the action horror franchise that ruined America's previously sterling reputation as a beacon of equality and prosperity for all its citizens.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

Post by Buscemi2 »

A franchise that you've praised, by the way. Also, was Marisa Tomei that desperate for money to agree to one of these?

Anyway, I'm going to go lower on the openers. I think Kyrie being unable to beat LeBron will hurt Uncle Drew, despite surprisingly okay reviews. And Soldado just feels completely unnecessary and will more than likely only play well in the big cities. Also, I think the mixed reviews show that we are getting tired of Taylor Sheridan's "violence and more violence"-style of writing. William Monahan did this same style a decade ago to success and now he's no longer thought of.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

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Buscemi2 wrote:A franchise that you've praised, by the way.
:o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o Masterful sleuthing Boosh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

Post by Buscemi2 »

I had a more critical bit aimed towards you but I didn't want to derail the column.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

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Love you too pal
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

Great column, Boosh. I'm thinking Uncle Drew could be the sleeper comedy hit of the season. There's always one, and we haven't had it yet, and with summer half over... (shrugs)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

Post by Buscemi2 »

Tranny wrote the article, not me. I'm not due for a little while.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

Post by Shrykespeare »

Guh. Yeah. Great column, Tranny.


Light on birthdays this week:

Kathy Bates turns 70 on 6/28
Nicole Scherzinger turns 40 on 6/29
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

Post by Walleye413 »

Kathy Bates in Misery is still one of the great performances of my movie watching career. Might be a Top 10 performance in my book.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

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The way you describe it, you make it sound like a three home run game or 50 points and 15 rebounds.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

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I think Soldado will do well. It's catering to an audience who haven't had anything geared towards them for quite some time - adult men. It's serious and beefy and there's nothing like this until maybe The Equalizer 2 and MI6. Plus, it'll play to the South and Central American immigrants who only have had Overboard to interest them. Like Tranny I'm thinking mid teens opening and a 40m+ cume.

Haven't a clue about Uncle Drew and its appeal.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Buscemi2 wrote:The way you describe it, you make it sound like a three home run game or 50 points and 15 rebounds.
Kathy Bates is the Wilt Chamberlain of acting - confirmed
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

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numbersix wrote: Plus, it'll play to the South and Central American immigrants who only have had Overboard to interest them.
Do they have movie theaters in ICE internment camps? Our Orange Dictator is so kind!
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

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If they did it would just be footage of him grinning and waving for 24/7

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/29

Post by transformers2 »

There'd also be an occasional screening of a Dinesh D'Souza film and Kirk Cameron's Saving Christmas to break up the monotony
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