SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/22
Posted: June 20th, 2018, 9:41 am
Last weekend shocked analysts by having the first surprise success of the Summer. And no, we’re not talking about that movie where old women get their sandpits stirred after reading 50 Shades of Grey, but rather The Incredibles 2 opened to an… well… incredible figure of $180m. That’s not just Pixar’s highest opening, but the 8th highest opening in the US of all time. And with the response being positive, expect this to fly past $500m and leave the other superhero flicks of 2018 caught in their capes. This week sees a major contender for the biggest film of the year, as Pachycephalosaures take on Parrs.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Universal) is the sequel to the massive last film, which stunned experts by clawing deep into nostalgia and biting $652m from folks’ wallets. The new film ups the ante with even more dino chaos, as the last film’s characters (played by Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard) return to the land that new ideas forgot to this time rescue the beasts from an erupting volcano. So far so nonsensical (“these creatures are dangerous, so let’s bring them to the mainland!!” – but hey, this is a film that tells us raptors can be trained), but this is all about the thrills, and the trailers promise plenty of that. And Jeff Goldblum returns as sexy-chested Dr Malcolm to deliver scientific sound bites.
All signs point to this being another hit, and this time George Lucas will no longer be able to “Thug Life” Frank Marshall (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhQPu-5C-WY) now that Solo has bombed. Yet, sometimes nostalgia only works once. Just look at the drops from the second Muppets movie, or even how the last few Stars Wars films have fared in relation to The Force Awakens. Fool me once, as they saying starts. And with reviews softer and buzz damper, don’t expect Fallen Kingdom to recreate the figures of the first. A 40-50% drop should be expected, which still means an opening of about $130m, but with direct competition hitting in the form of Ant-Man and the Wasp, Skyscaper, and Mission Impossible Whatever (they’re really not that impossible if Cruise has completed 5 of them), those dino legs won’t be as strong. Still, you’ll end up with about $350m which is great for BO if you failed to pick up Incredibles 2. In Ultimate expect 14-15 T5, 9-10PTA, a mid 6 IMDB score. That’s good as a safe bet, but you might get better value from some other films, like MI6 or Ant-Man.
With a lack of interesting limited fare coming out this month, here are two films with potential. The first is Boundaries, another Grey Pound flick released by Sony Classics. It stars Vera Farmiga and Christopher Plummer as a father and daughter who hit the road. Gentle amusement will surely ensue, complete with old-timey cursing, one or two pratfalls, and a syrupy conclusion about learning to appreciate your elders. But, target that older audience and you can hit gold (or whatever those old folks pay in. Guilders). Reviews have been lukewarm, though, which does impact that age group. Still, expect 3 PTA across the next two weeks, so it may be a decent filler.
A better option may be The King (Oscilloscope), a documentary about Elvis. Now, there are docs about the Tupelo guitar man are everywhere – there’s probably a whole Netflix subsection of them. But this is by Eugene Jarecki, who directed award winners such as Why We Fight and The House I Live In. This doc charts the story of Elvis but also how America has gone way down, and features contributions from an array of famous faces. With critics bestowing burning love for it, this may do well over the next 2 weeks so expect 3-4 PTA points and a decent IMDB score. For $2 you should pick it up now or never.
Predictions for the weekend
1. RoboDinos: The Prequel - $130m
2. Incredible Marketing Campaign - $90m
3. Pink Razor Oceans - $10m
4. Tag: You’re (Sh)it - $7m
5. Deadpoo 2- $5m
PTA: Jurassic World 2, Incredibles 2, The King, Boundaries, Neighbor
Next week the box office takes a breather, and Tranny will take a look at modest wide releases Sicario 2: Sicario Harder, Uncle Drew, and limited flick Leave No Trace.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Universal) is the sequel to the massive last film, which stunned experts by clawing deep into nostalgia and biting $652m from folks’ wallets. The new film ups the ante with even more dino chaos, as the last film’s characters (played by Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard) return to the land that new ideas forgot to this time rescue the beasts from an erupting volcano. So far so nonsensical (“these creatures are dangerous, so let’s bring them to the mainland!!” – but hey, this is a film that tells us raptors can be trained), but this is all about the thrills, and the trailers promise plenty of that. And Jeff Goldblum returns as sexy-chested Dr Malcolm to deliver scientific sound bites.
All signs point to this being another hit, and this time George Lucas will no longer be able to “Thug Life” Frank Marshall (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhQPu-5C-WY) now that Solo has bombed. Yet, sometimes nostalgia only works once. Just look at the drops from the second Muppets movie, or even how the last few Stars Wars films have fared in relation to The Force Awakens. Fool me once, as they saying starts. And with reviews softer and buzz damper, don’t expect Fallen Kingdom to recreate the figures of the first. A 40-50% drop should be expected, which still means an opening of about $130m, but with direct competition hitting in the form of Ant-Man and the Wasp, Skyscaper, and Mission Impossible Whatever (they’re really not that impossible if Cruise has completed 5 of them), those dino legs won’t be as strong. Still, you’ll end up with about $350m which is great for BO if you failed to pick up Incredibles 2. In Ultimate expect 14-15 T5, 9-10PTA, a mid 6 IMDB score. That’s good as a safe bet, but you might get better value from some other films, like MI6 or Ant-Man.
With a lack of interesting limited fare coming out this month, here are two films with potential. The first is Boundaries, another Grey Pound flick released by Sony Classics. It stars Vera Farmiga and Christopher Plummer as a father and daughter who hit the road. Gentle amusement will surely ensue, complete with old-timey cursing, one or two pratfalls, and a syrupy conclusion about learning to appreciate your elders. But, target that older audience and you can hit gold (or whatever those old folks pay in. Guilders). Reviews have been lukewarm, though, which does impact that age group. Still, expect 3 PTA across the next two weeks, so it may be a decent filler.
A better option may be The King (Oscilloscope), a documentary about Elvis. Now, there are docs about the Tupelo guitar man are everywhere – there’s probably a whole Netflix subsection of them. But this is by Eugene Jarecki, who directed award winners such as Why We Fight and The House I Live In. This doc charts the story of Elvis but also how America has gone way down, and features contributions from an array of famous faces. With critics bestowing burning love for it, this may do well over the next 2 weeks so expect 3-4 PTA points and a decent IMDB score. For $2 you should pick it up now or never.
Predictions for the weekend
1. RoboDinos: The Prequel - $130m
2. Incredible Marketing Campaign - $90m
3. Pink Razor Oceans - $10m
4. Tag: You’re (Sh)it - $7m
5. Deadpoo 2- $5m
PTA: Jurassic World 2, Incredibles 2, The King, Boundaries, Neighbor
Next week the box office takes a breather, and Tranny will take a look at modest wide releases Sicario 2: Sicario Harder, Uncle Drew, and limited flick Leave No Trace.