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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/22

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/22

Postby numbersix » June 20th, 2018, 9:41 am

Last weekend shocked analysts by having the first surprise success of the Summer. And no, we’re not talking about that movie where old women get their sandpits stirred after reading 50 Shades of Grey, but rather The Incredibles 2 opened to an… well… incredible figure of $180m. That’s not just Pixar’s highest opening, but the 8th highest opening in the US of all time. And with the response being positive, expect this to fly past $500m and leave the other superhero flicks of 2018 caught in their capes. This week sees a major contender for the biggest film of the year, as Pachycephalosaures take on Parrs.




Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Universal) is the sequel to the massive last film, which stunned experts by clawing deep into nostalgia and biting $652m from folks’ wallets. The new film ups the ante with even more dino chaos, as the last film’s characters (played by Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard) return to the land that new ideas forgot to this time rescue the beasts from an erupting volcano. So far so nonsensical (“these creatures are dangerous, so let’s bring them to the mainland!!” – but hey, this is a film that tells us raptors can be trained), but this is all about the thrills, and the trailers promise plenty of that. And Jeff Goldblum returns as sexy-chested Dr Malcolm to deliver scientific sound bites.

All signs point to this being another hit, and this time George Lucas will no longer be able to “Thug Life” Frank Marshall (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhQPu-5C-WY) now that Solo has bombed. Yet, sometimes nostalgia only works once. Just look at the drops from the second Muppets movie, or even how the last few Stars Wars films have fared in relation to The Force Awakens. Fool me once, as they saying starts. And with reviews softer and buzz damper, don’t expect Fallen Kingdom to recreate the figures of the first. A 40-50% drop should be expected, which still means an opening of about $130m, but with direct competition hitting in the form of Ant-Man and the Wasp, Skyscaper, and Mission Impossible Whatever (they’re really not that impossible if Cruise has completed 5 of them), those dino legs won’t be as strong. Still, you’ll end up with about $350m which is great for BO if you failed to pick up Incredibles 2. In Ultimate expect 14-15 T5, 9-10PTA, a mid 6 IMDB score. That’s good as a safe bet, but you might get better value from some other films, like MI6 or Ant-Man.




With a lack of interesting limited fare coming out this month, here are two films with potential. The first is Boundaries, another Grey Pound flick released by Sony Classics. It stars Vera Farmiga and Christopher Plummer as a father and daughter who hit the road. Gentle amusement will surely ensue, complete with old-timey cursing, one or two pratfalls, and a syrupy conclusion about learning to appreciate your elders. But, target that older audience and you can hit gold (or whatever those old folks pay in. Guilders). Reviews have been lukewarm, though, which does impact that age group. Still, expect 3 PTA across the next two weeks, so it may be a decent filler.




A better option may be The King (Oscilloscope), a documentary about Elvis. Now, there are docs about the Tupelo guitar man are everywhere – there’s probably a whole Netflix subsection of them. But this is by Eugene Jarecki, who directed award winners such as Why We Fight and The House I Live In. This doc charts the story of Elvis but also how America has gone way down, and features contributions from an array of famous faces. With critics bestowing burning love for it, this may do well over the next 2 weeks so expect 3-4 PTA points and a decent IMDB score. For $2 you should pick it up now or never.



Predictions for the weekend

1. RoboDinos: The Prequel - $130m
2. Incredible Marketing Campaign - $90m
3. Pink Razor Oceans - $10m
4. Tag: You’re (Sh)it - $7m
5. Deadpoo 2- $5m

PTA: Jurassic World 2, Incredibles 2, The King, Boundaries, Neighbor

Next week the box office takes a breather, and Tranny will take a look at modest wide releases Sicario 2: Sicario Harder, Uncle Drew, and limited flick Leave No Trace.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby Buscemi2 » June 20th, 2018, 10:17 am

I wouldn't be surprised to see the IMDb rating for The King tank once the die-hard Elvis fans realize what the film is really about. They had to cut off BlacKkKlansman's voting due to that film's politics.

As for Boundaries, it seems like audiences still like Christopher Plummer (he was recently nominated for another Oscar) so you might be right about that one. Not expecting much film-wise (the director is nothing more than a career hack that's made a forgettable indie and two badly-received studio films).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby Shrykespeare » June 22nd, 2018, 6:34 pm

Weekend Theater Counts:

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - 4,475
Boundaries - 5


Next Week:

Sicario: Day of the Soldado - 2,900+
Uncle Drew - 2,600
Sanju - 350




Celebrity Birthdays:

Phylicia Rashan turned 70 on 6/19
Zoe Saldana turned 40 on 6/19 (hope this doesn't mean Hollywood will cut her prospective roles by half)
Atticus Shaffer turned 20 on 6/19
Robert Rodriguez turned 50 on 6/20
Bruce Campbell turned 60 on 6/22
Happy 30th birthday Anna Popplewell! (12/16/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby Walleye413 » June 23rd, 2018, 10:13 am

I was just talking about Zoe turning 40 as well. She's such an interesting actress, I hope she still gets work now that she's crossed the age of no return.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby Shrykespeare » June 23rd, 2018, 12:23 pm

Agreed, Six. Totally agreed.


Friday Estimates

Jurassic World, $58.7M
Incredibles 2, $24.0M
Ocean's 8 $3.4M
Tag, $2.4M
Deadpool 2, $1.5M
Solo, $1.2M
Hereditary, $1.1M



Weekend Projections

Jurassic World, $144.1M
Incredibles 2, $79M (just shy of $350M for 10 days)
Ocean's 8, $11.2M (has a shot at $100M)
Tag, $7.9M
Deadpool 2, $5.1M (breaks $300M)
Solo, $4M (breaks $200M)
Hereditary, $3.5M
Superfly, $3.1M
Avengers, $2.5M


PTA:
Jurassic World, $32K
Incredibles 2, $18K
Won't You Be My Neighbor?, $5K
Happy 30th birthday Anna Popplewell! (12/16/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby Buscemi2 » June 23rd, 2018, 12:43 pm

I wonder if those epilepsy warnings hurt Incredibles 2 (some were seeing it hit $100 million this weekend) or was it just frontloaded?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby Shrykespeare » June 23rd, 2018, 1:27 pm

I'm not reading anything into the big drop. With similar age demographics flocking to see JW, expecting a monster hold for Incredibles 2 after such a huge OW was unrealistic. However, I would wager the holds will be far better going forward (or at least until HT3 comes out).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby Buscemi2 » June 23rd, 2018, 5:43 pm

I haven't seen anything for Hotel Transylvania 3 (other than that short Sony did with Dennis getting the puppy). Have I just not been looking in the right places?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby W » June 23rd, 2018, 8:17 pm

Buscemi2 wrote:I haven't seen anything for Hotel Transylvania 3 (other than that short Sony did with Dennis getting the puppy). Have I just not been looking in the right places?


The other day on Lebatard Keegan Michael Key was promoting it. The spent the entire segment talking about the original Predator and it’s sequels, though. Plan on doing that once a week until the new Predator releases.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby Shrykespeare » June 24th, 2018, 12:51 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, $150.0M
4 points - Incredibles 2, $80.9M
3 points - Ocean's 8, $11.6M
2 points - Tag, $8.2M
1 point - Deadpool 2, $5.2M
Solo: A Star Wars Story, $4.0M
Hereditary, $3.8M
Superfly, $3.3M
Avengers: Infinity War, $2.5M
Won't You Be My Neighbor?, $1.9M



PTA:
Top 10:
5 points - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
4 points - Incredibles 2
3 points - The King
2 points - Boundaries
1 point - Won't You Be My Neighbor?
Happy 30th birthday Anna Popplewell! (12/16/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby Shrykespeare » June 25th, 2018, 6:14 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, $148.0M (5)
4 points - Incredibles 2, $80.3M (4)
3 points - Ocean's 8, $11.5M (12)
2 points - Tag, $8.3M (5)
1 point - Deadpool 2, $5.3M (18)
Solo: A Star Wars Story, $4.5M
Hereditary, $3.6M
Superfly, $3.4M
Avengers: Infinity War, $2.6M
Won't You Be My Neighbor?, $1.8M



PTA:
Top 10:
5 points - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, $33,078 (5)
4 points - Incredibles 2, $18,219 (9)
3 points - The King, $14,525 (3)
2 points - Boundaries, $5,910 (2) - 3.5 User Rating (ouch)
1 point - Won't You Be My Neighbor?, $5,233 (9)
Happy 30th birthday Anna Popplewell! (12/16/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby Buscemi2 » June 25th, 2018, 6:21 pm

Told you that rating would fall. People love to use IMDb to force their extremist viewpoints.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby W » June 25th, 2018, 6:52 pm

I’m seeing 7.3 as The King’s UR. 141 ratings.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 06/

Postby Shrykespeare » June 25th, 2018, 7:18 pm

My bad. It was Boundaries with the crappy Rating, not The King.

Spiral wasn't much better.
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