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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby transformers2 » May 22nd, 2018, 2:33 pm

After a 3 week reign of terror atop the box office, Thanos was finally defeated by the Merc with a Mouth's second coming.

Deadpool 2 continued 2018's superhero dominance with a strong $125.5 mil debut. While it unsurprisingly fell a bit short of its predecessor's record-breaking $132 mil haul, the David Leitch-helmed sequel was able to beat out last year's It for the 2nd-biggest OW gross for an R-rated film ever. If it plays like the previous installment, which is far from a lock considering this one is facing far stiffer competition than the original did in the winter/spring of 2016, Wade Wilson's latest ultraviolent, meta humor-filled adventure should finish with around $350 mil domestically.

Despite being knocked out of the top spot, Infinity War was still able to gross a ridiculous $29.4 mil in its 4th weekend of release. It probably doesn't have enough juice to top Black Panther's nearly $700 mil domestic run, but it's a lock to become the 2nd-highest grossing film in the history of the MCU as well as a strong bet to beat out every other tentpole set for release over the remaining summer months, if not the rest of the year.

It was also a good weekend for the horned-up senior citizens of the world as the Fifty Shades of Grey-inspired bluehead comedy Book Club dampened matinee seats with something other than urine or Crystal Light for once, putting up a steamy $13.6 mil in its first three days of release. Gertrude and Agnes will probably encourage their friends at bingo to go check out this fabulous* moving picture at their local multiplex, which should help turn this into another victory for Paramount-who appears to be on the verge of having a nice bounceback year after a brutal 2017.
(*I used the world fabulous because its the word my 83-year old grandmother uses to describe she every film she enjoys.)

A24's latest acclaimed drama First Reformed dominated fellow limited openers On Chesil Beach and Pope Francis-A Man of His Word with a solid $24,391 PTA average in 4 theaters. This is almost double what Lean on Pete opened with last month and with a pretty small number of limited releases hitting theaters over the next few weeks, Paul Schrader's somber film about a military chaplain (Ethan Hawke) that begins to question his faith after his son, who he encouraged to enlist in the Army, is killed in combat could end up accumulating double-digit PTA points by the end of its run.

Wide Release:
Image
For the first time since George Lucas (permanently) handed over the creative reins to the franchise that helped give him the finances to build a sprawling, secluded nerd fortress in Northern California named after a character he created, a Star Wars film is coming out during the summer. Solo: A Star Wars Story (Disney), an origin story about a beloved character that the fatcats at Disney unceremoniously murdered once they got their filthy mouse paws on this franchise, seems like an attempt to return to the series to its straightforward, rollicking roots after the remarkably polarizing The Last Jedi sent the internet into a thinkpiece-and-petition-filled sea of visceral emotional reactions last December. This throwback feature goes back to the days when the galaxy's most notorious smuggler, played here by Hail, Caesar! star Alden Ehrenreich, was just a young, suave knucklehead getting into trouble with his Wookiee cohort Chewbacca. Young Han and Chewy soon join up with a ragtag team of criminals that we don't know (Woody Harrelson, Emilia Clarke, Thandie Newton) as well as old friend Lando Calrissian (Donald Glover, whose performance seems to be the only thing about the film that the people that have already seen it are fawning over at the moment) to pull off some kind of crazy space heist that the studio feels compelled to keep a secret for the time being.

As I alluded to earlier, Solo's is the first entry in the rebooted Star Wars universe that isn't a guaranteed $500 mil+ domestic sensation. The Last Jedi's comparatively lukewarm reception, well-publicized production issues that resulted in Ron Howard taking over directorial duties in the middle of filming and the fact that this will be the fourth Star Wars film released in the last 30 months have combined to cast a shadow of doubt surrounding Solo's BO potential that seemed inconceivable as recently as last Thanksgiving. I'm not going to be the reactionary asshole that declares that there's no way that Solo clears $500 mil, but the early indications from within the industry that suggest this could gross well under the half-century mark in the good ol' USA is a stunning development that could eventually lead to trouble for a studio that was banking on keeping this Star Wars gravy train chugging along without a hitch for the next zillion years.

Even with this healthy amount of red flags and question marks attached to its name, Solo should do just fine for the purposes of our game. Star Wars flicks are going to be able to generate considerable interest, regardless of the outside noise plus it's the only film available this season besides Jurassic World that is guaranteed to win back-to-back weekends. I'm expecting young Han's 1st adventure to post a $133 mil OW ($158 mil 4-day), 16 Top 5, 11 PTA, an IMDB score in the low-to-mid 7's and a final gross around $385 mil. It might not be the no-brainer slate anchor that its predecessors were, but Solo, which will run you $50 in BO and $42-43 in ULT, should make for a good-to-great pickup in both formats.


Limited Release:
Image
Summer 1993 (Oscilloscope) is a film you can apply the "well-reviewed foreign film that's not overly appealing to American audiences" tag to. Spain's official entry into last year's Best Foreign Language Film Oscar race, which currently boasts a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, is an autobiographical tale from director Carla Simon about a 6-year old that goes to live with her uncle in the Spanish countryside after her parents die from AIDS. If (most) subtitled films weren't such a hard sell in the U.S., this could've very well turned into a breakout hit on the indie circuit, but that's just the harsh reality of the American specialty film market. Even with the language barrier and Oscilloscope's less-than-stellar track record, it's standing as the game's sole new limited release paired with a relatively small number of viable wide releases currently out there gives Summer 1993 a decent chance to secure some PTA points this weekend to go along with its relatively strong IMDb score (7.2). If you're looking for a $2 cherry to put on the top of your ULT slate, you could do a lot worse than this.


Weekend Projections:
1.Solo $133 mil ($158 mil 4-day)
2.Deadpool 2 $48 mil ($63 mil 4-day)
3.Avengers: Infinity War $15 mil ($22 mil $4-day)
4.Book Club $8 mil ($12.5 4-day)
5.Life of the Party $4 mil ($7 mil 4-day)

PTA: Solo, Deadpool 2, First Reformed, Summer 1993, Avengers: Infinity War

Tune in next week when Boosh offers up his takes on Johnny Knoxville's latest stuntfest Action Point, Me Before You on the Seven Seas (aka Adrift), fact-based indie heist flick American Animals, tech-driven B-actioner Upgrade and Cohen Media Group's latest arthouse sensation Rodin.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby Walleye413 » May 23rd, 2018, 9:47 pm

Crazy to think that Solo might earn less than 400 million. And if it does that it would be a disappointment! These tentpole blockbusters have so little room for error.

Regardless, I"m going tomorrow night. Hope the rumors that it's actually a decent film are true.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby numbersix » May 24th, 2018, 2:42 am

I'm pretty sure Mr childish Gambino has single handedly saved solo. Most of the ads over here focus entirely on him. It may as well be Lando: A Star Wars Story (although that is coming up). I think the film will do fine. as much as I resent Lord and Miller being replaced by Ron howard, the man responsible for some of the worst films I've ever seen, I'm still going to check it out. The nostalgia is strong in folks my age. It won't get the repeated viewing the new trilogy got (even if they just rewatched TLJ to scream alt-right abuse at the screen), but it's gonna be a solid four-quadrant film holding well until Jurassic World stomps along. Yeah, $400m feels about right, and with international figures it should come close to a billion, which is still a major success no matter what the bored trade journalists want to say.

My Weekend Projections:
1.Solo $125 mil ($145 mil 4-day)
2.Deadpool 2 $50 mil ($60 mil 4-day)
3.Avengers: Infinity War $15 mil ($2 mil $4-day)
4.Book Club $7 mil ($11 4-day)
5.Life of the Party $4 mil ($6 mil 4-day)

PTA: Solo, Deadpool 2, First Reformed, Avengers: Infinity War, Summer 1993.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby Buscemi2 » May 24th, 2018, 3:09 am

Well, alt-right types have already been attacking this one. When will people stop enabling these idiots?

And even though it flopped last week, I could see Show Dogs dropping harder than usual due to the decision to re-edit the film (I have to wonder how neither Global Road nor the MPAA caught any of that before the opening, the film had been on the shelf for a while so someone had to notice that the offending material wouldn't sit well with some).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby Chienfantome » May 24th, 2018, 3:40 am

Yeah, everyone's been commenting all the troubles Solo has encountered in production, and how the film is too close to the latest Star Wars film, and this and that, but in the end, it's a film about one of the most iconic and popular movie characters of all-time, it's got Chewbacca, Donald Gambino, and word is the film is fun, even if not as great as you might want, it's fun, so I'm sure it's gonna be fine and still make much more bucks than most people think.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby Shrykespeare » May 24th, 2018, 9:57 pm

Theater Counts:

Solo: A Star Wars Story - 4,381



Next week:

Adrift - 2,900
Action Point - 2,000 (that's MUCH less than I was expecting)
Upgrade - 1,400




Celebrity birthdays:

Jonathan Hyde turned 70 on 5/21
Richard Benjamin turned 80 on 5/22
Ginnifer Goodwin turned 40 on 5/22
Drew Carey turned 60 on 5/23
Tommy Chong turned 80 on 5/24 (See, kids! Pot is good for you!)
Stevie Nicks turns 70 on 5/26
Happy 60th birthday Tim Robbins! (10/16/18)

Remember, Red ... hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby Buscemi2 » May 25th, 2018, 7:19 am

Early estimates have Solo at $13-15 million. This was hard to find between all of the alt-right trolling at HSX (I did find it amusing that the head of The Numbers called that certain individual who can't give it up a Nazi).

I have a feeling this trolling business will stop once the next Purge movie opens.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby undeadmonkey » May 26th, 2018, 8:17 pm

Soooo glad that i didn't pick Solo with my first pick
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby Shrykespeare » May 26th, 2018, 11:15 pm

Friday Estimates

Solo, $35.6M
Deadpool 2, $12.1M
Avengers: Infinity War, $4.3M
Book Club, $2.7M
Life of the Party, $1.4M
Breaking In, $1.1M


Weekend Projections

Solo, $110M
Deadpool 2, $57.5M
Avengers: Infinity War, $21.5M
Book Club, $12.6M
Life of the Party, $6.1M
Breaking In, $5.2M
Show Dogs, $4M
Overboard, $3.8M
A Quiet Place, $3.1M
RBG, $1.3M
Happy 60th birthday Tim Robbins! (10/16/18)

Remember, Red ... hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby Walleye413 » May 27th, 2018, 12:52 am

undeadmonkey wrote:Soooo glad that i didn't pick Solo with my first pick


You and me both. That was my other choice.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby Shrykespeare » May 27th, 2018, 11:45 am

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Solo: A Star Wars Story, $83.3M (oh SHIT)
4 points - Deadpool 2, $42.7M
3 points - Avengers: Infinity War, $16.5M
2 points - Book Club, $9.4M
1 point - Life of the Party, $5.1M
Breaking In, $4.1M
Show Dogs, $3.1M
Overboard, $3.0M
A Quiet Place, $2.2M
RBG, $1.1M



PTA:
5 points - Solo: A Star Wars Story
4 points - Deadpool 2
3 points - First Reformed
2 points - Avengers: Infinity War
1 point - The Seagull

No word on Summer 1993 yet.
Happy 60th birthday Tim Robbins! (10/16/18)

Remember, Red ... hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby Buscemi2 » May 27th, 2018, 11:55 am

Just as devastating is the 66% drop Deadpool 2 suffered. I knew this would be frontloaded but not "lose two-thirds of your audiences after opening weekend" frontloaded.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby Buscemi2 » May 28th, 2018, 8:57 am

So apparently, there's a vocal minority of people that didn't see Solo this week because of Kathleen Kennedy's handling of the series. But who else is convinced that it's really just alt-right types who hate that a woman is handling Star Wars? I don't believe that for one second she's not listening to the fans because nearly all of the new characters are Han Solo archetypes (isn't that something "the fans" wanted?).

Just go back to whacking off to your laserdisc rip of the original trilogy, idiots.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby Shrykespeare » May 28th, 2018, 11:55 am

Weekend Estimates (Mon.)

Top 10:
5 points - Solo: A Star Wars Story, $84.8M
4 points - Deadpool 2, $43.4M
3 points - Avengers: Infinity War, $17.4M
2 points - Book Club, $10.1M
1 point - Life of the Party, $5.3M
Breaking In, $4.3M
Show Dogs, $3.3M
Overboard, $3.0M
A Quiet Place, $2.4M
RBG, $1.3M



PTA:
5 points - Solo: A Star Wars Story
4 points - Deadpool 2
3 points - First Reformed
2 points - Summer 1993
1 point - Avengers: Infinity War
Happy 60th birthday Tim Robbins! (10/16/18)

Remember, Red ... hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/25

Postby Shrykespeare » May 29th, 2018, 6:51 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Solo: A Star Wars Story, $84.4M (5)
4 points - Deadpool 2, $43.5M (9)
3 points - Avengers: Infinity War, $17.3M (22)
2 points - Book Club, $10.1M (5)
1 point - Life of the Party, $5.4M (7)
Breaking In, $4.3M
Show Dogs, $3.3M
Overboard, $3.1M
A Quiet Place, $2.4M
RBG, $1.3M



PTA:
5 points - Solo: A Star Wars Story, $19,270 (5)
4 points - Deadpool 2, $9,994 (9)
3 points - First Reformed (7)
2 points - Summer 1993, $5,375 (2)
1 point - Avengers: Infinity War, $4,590 (18)
Happy 60th birthday Tim Robbins! (10/16/18)

Remember, Red ... hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
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