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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 05/04

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 05/04

Postby numbersix » May 2nd, 2018, 5:28 pm

Here Comes the Summer, sang the hopeful Fergal Sharkey before realising he lived in Northern Ireland, where Summer lasts about 40 minutes. But here in the Fantaverse Realm, our golden sunshine is in the form of rays of box office gold, as we open our metaphorical mouths to gather it all in, much like a Russian lady of the night taking orders from a notable American world leader. Yes folks, summer season has officially started.

Every single May opening weekend for at least the last decade has produced a bonafide hit, delivering anywhere from $65-$207m in its first three days. So, which of this week’s films is going to live up to expectations?




My money is on Overboard (Lionsgate/Pantelion). Now, it may not sound like the next Star Wars, but hear me out. This is the epic story of a poor woman who convinces a wealthy Mexican with amnesia that they’re married. The original was a classic, and this looks like a mix of Titanic and Beauty and the Beast. It also stars Anna Faris (whose husband appears in the MCU) and Eugenio Derbez. And with Trump’s wall yet to be built, the billions of nasty Mexicans swarming into the country means that in between bouts of raping and robbing they’ll need something to do. I predict an opening of $103m and a cume of $300m. Not the biggest film of the season, for sure, but the best value at $8-9 in Ultimate and $7-8 in BO. And prepare yourself for the inevitable sequels and spin-offs to hit us every year.




Coming close behind is Bad Samaritan, released wide by Electric Entertainment. It’s a psychological thriller about a thief who breaks into a house only to find a woman tied up there, and must escape the wrath of the kidnapper. It’s like 50 Shades of Grey… but sexier. This one is going to be a close second for the weekend. It may not open to $100m, but it’ll definitely earn above $1m, and probably nab you a massive zero PTA points, a low 5s IMDB, and a total under $10m. Despite costing you little in both leagues, I’d avoid unless you feel it can reach 15-20m in BO.




Someone in Focus Features thought that another pairing between director Jason Reitman and writer Diablo Cody would be a good idea. Guess someone’s gunning for that severance package. Tully is a dramedy about a struggling mother and her nanny, and stars Charlize Theron and Mackenzie Davis. To be fair, the reviews are quite strong for the film, and its familiar premise may attract those immune to Thor’s flowing locks and dancing pecs. But going wide feels like a mistake. This should have been a platformed film that let word-of-mouth pull in audiences. Instead, the studio expecting another Juno (well, at least this one won’t be as annoying as the 2007 flick. Nothing could be) will find the film opening in the mid-single digits, and not getting you much in Ultimate. Nor will it be worth the $3-5 in BO.


There are also three limited releases competing against the Avengers and the Lezzers (aka Disobedience).




102 Not Out feels like the best bet. Sony/Columbia don’t normally have a great track record with either limited releases or with foreign-language films. However, this Indian film brings together two of the Bollywood’s most beloved actors in a gentle comedy. If given the right push, this could have crowds racing to it as if it were the only flushing toilet in Mumbai. However, it all depends on the theatre count. A dump in 100+ screens may mean it get you nothing. But in less than a dozen and you might see a surprising PTA result. So keep an eye on Box Office Mojo and see if it’s worth your $3 for 4-6 PTA points and a few million at best.




Another one of the oldies, The Desert Bride (Strand) is an Argentinian arthouse film about world cinema’s favourite topic: finding yourself once you’re past 50. Like 99% of films in Cannes and Berlin, this soul-searcher about an aged woman will certainly cover themes such as appreciating life, family, and wrinkly sex. Having won a few local awards, this could get a small crowd in, but don’t expect any PTA points beyond this weekend.




And finally, The Guardians (Music Box) are not of the galaxy, sadly, but of rural France during World War I. Xavier Beauvois had an arthouse hit with Of Gods and Men but this seems like a smaller film in terms of potential. And with Music Box releasing, it could fail to deliver on any category. Best avoid.



My (actual) predictions for the weekend

1. Disneycorp #249 - $110m
2. Over-bored - $10m
3. An Illogical Place - $7m
4. I Feel Petty - $4.5m
5. Young Adult 2: Tully - $4m

PTA: Avengers: Gotta Collect Em All, 102 Not Out, Disobedience, The Desert Bride, The Guardians

Next week sees the mighty Boosch berate two mid-level hopefuls, comedy Life of the Party and thriller Breaking In, as well as indies Revenge, Beast, The Seagull, and Soller’s Point.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 05/

Postby Shrykespeare » May 2nd, 2018, 6:41 pm

I think there's a specialist in Ireland that will help you successfully remove your tongue from your cheek. :D

Never actually saw the original Overboard. Was it really a classic?


Huh. Only one birthday this week:

Amy Ryan turned 50 on 5/3.
Happy 40th birthday Michelle Rodriguez! (7/12/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 05/

Postby Walleye413 » May 2nd, 2018, 6:58 pm

Good article, but with all joking aside I think Overboard could do well. Eugenio is a massive star in the Latino world, and they'll be so excited to see him in a mainstream American movie. The theatre count is too low for a massive hit, but it'll do well all things considered.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 05/

Postby Buscemi2 » May 2nd, 2018, 8:38 pm

The original Overboard is always on TV. The new one has star power, yes, but it doesn't seem to have changed much.

I have a feeling it will open decently before dropping quickly.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 05/

Postby numbersix » May 4th, 2018, 6:39 am

102 Not Out is opening in over 100 screens so forget that PTA potential.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 05/

Postby Buscemi2 » May 4th, 2018, 6:41 am

Indian films usually have decent-sized releases (Fox is apparently planning to open one in 600 theatres next month). Very rarely will you see one in 1-2 theatres.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 05/

Postby Shrykespeare » May 5th, 2018, 11:48 am

Friday Estimates

Avengers: Infinity War, $31.4M (Yay! My first bucks!)
Overboard, $4.8M
A Quiet Place, $2.3M
I Feel Pretty, $1.6M
Rampage, $1.2M
Tully, $1.2M
Bad Samaritan, $645K



Weekend Projections:

Avengers: Infinity War, $115M
Overboard, $14M
A Quiet Place, $7.8M
I Feel Pretty, $5.1M
Rampage, $4.5M
Black Panther, $3.3M
Tully, $3.3M
Bad Samaritan, $2M
Super Troopers 2, $2M
Blockers, $1.8M
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 05/

Postby Buscemi2 » May 5th, 2018, 11:51 am

Cinemascores:

Overboard: A-
Bad Samaritan: B-

Tully was not exit polled, apparently.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 05/

Postby Buscemi2 » May 6th, 2018, 12:07 pm

Weekend Estimates

Avengers $112.5 million (56% drop)
Overboard $14.8 million
A Quiet Place $7.6 million
I Feel Pretty $4.9 million
Rampage $4.6 million
Tully $3.2 million
Black Panther $3.2 million ($40,000 separate Tully and Black Panther)
Truth or Dare $1.9 million
Super Troopers $1.8 million
Bad Samaritan $1.8 million ($57,000 separate Super Troopers and Bad Samaritan)

PTA

Avengers $25,139
Disobedience $10,009
Overboard $9,088
The Guardians $7,199
102 Not Out $4,706

Not in the game but of note is RBG. It averaged $16,471 in 34 theatres (the total gross was a third of Bad Samaritan's in less than 2% of the theatres).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 05/

Postby Shrykespeare » May 6th, 2018, 3:02 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Avengers: Infinity War, $112.5M
4 points - Overboard, $14.7M
3 points - A Quiet Place, $7.6M
2 points - I Feel Pretty, $4.9M
1 point - Rampage, $4.6M
Tully, $3.2M
Black Panther, $3.1M
Truth or Dare, $1.9M
Super Troopers 2, $1.8M
Bad Samaritan, $1.8M



PTA:
5 points - Avengers: Infinity War
4 points - Disobedience
3 points - Overboard
2 points - The Guardians (which NO ONE took...)
1 point - 102 Not Out
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 05/

Postby Shrykespeare » May 7th, 2018, 4:39 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Avengers: Infinity War, $114.8M (10)
4 points - Overboard, $14.7M (4)
3 points - A Quiet Place, $7.8M (21)
2 points - I Feel Pretty, $5.1M (8)
1 point - Rampage, $4.6M (12)
Tully, $3.3M
Black Panther, $3.3M
Truth or Dare, $1.9M
Super Troopers 2, $1.9M
Bad Samaritan, $1.8M



PTA:
5 points - Avengers: Infinity War, $25,654 (10)
4 points - Disobedience, $9,874 (8)
3 points - Overboard, $9,064 (3)
2 points - The Guardians, $7,479 (2)
1 point - 102 Not Out, $4,742 (1)

Desert Bride only managed $1,064.
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