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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby Walleye413 » April 25th, 2018, 1:46 am

So when I signed up to do the last weekend in April there were the usual duds on the calendar from studios trying to steer clear of the BIGGEST MOVIE OF ALL TIME! But a funny thing happened on the way to the Theatre. Marvel decided to go for the Worldwide Box Office record and moved the Mighty Avengers up a week (pissing off about 2 dozen movie nerds and their homebrew box office game in the process.) How about that?

Which means that everything that happened last week is now moot. Sure A Quiet Place is a massive hit. Sure Dwayne Johnson can get people to see almost literally anything. None of that matters because the MCU is unleashing an Infinity War on every Movie Theatre in the world. You will see it. You will love it. And you will dutifully wait with baited breath until the final conclusion (no really, we mean it this time) arrives in just one year. Oh, how will we ever wait?

So, here’s the deal, I don’t always make monetary predictions when I write these columns, but I figure this week I’ve got to man up and put myself out there. As must all of you. If you’re not willing to predict this monster of a mash-up then what the heck are you here for? So, no recap needed on the movie. You all know what it’s about, you all know what’s coming. It’s also clearly critic-proof, although word of mouth might be a factor when it comes to legs. But as for the opener, it’s making 255 million this weekend. Yep, it’s breaking the Star Wars record for biggest opener of all time. And it’ll ride that opener for weeks until Ryan Reynolds chops it off at the knees. Which means it won’t break Star Wars’ final cume, instead ending up at 750 million total. Hardly a disappointment, especially when you figure it hits 1.6 billion worldwide. For game purposes it’ll get you 23 top ten points, 12-14 PTA points. It’ll be hard to win any of the leagues without it. And it’ll still be worth drafting in the year-long league – picking up 400 million or so to the lucky SOB that gets it. Oh wait, I suppose that could be me.

In the very definition of counter-programming, you can also check out Rachel Weisz and Rachel McAdams in Disobedience – an Indie movie about a renewed lesbian relationship frowned upon by their close religious community. Uh huh, Rachel and Rachel. If only they could add in Rachel Green from Friends it might be the 90’s fantasy of nearly every man in America (and probably half the women.) As such, this will get you a few PTA points before it disappears next week. You’re better off picking up the movie about the Pope. How’s that for apples to oranges?

It’s Avengers week, people. Get in line or get out of the way.

Top 5
Avengers
A Quiet Place
Rampage
I Feel Pretty
Avengers again (Yeah, it’s so big it’s on here twice.)

PTA
Avengers
The Rider
Disobedience
A Quiet Place
Avengers (See what I did there.)


Next week Six talks about a bunch of movies that are going to get totally overshadowed by the Avengers again. But he’ll be wicked funny, so the column will still totally be worth it.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby Buscemi2 » April 25th, 2018, 2:22 am

Yeah, I was expecting this would be about Avengers: Barney's Ball Chin.

Meanwhile, I think Disobedience is being underestimated. The director is hot off an Oscar win, reviews have been very strong, and you have two leads with audience appeal. I expect very good numbers in Jewish-heavy markets and areas with a strong gay community for the first few weeks (I do agree that it won't fly in more narrow-minded markets, my area still hasn't gotten Beirut but you can see I Can Only Imagine anywhere in a five-mile radius). A Fantastic Woman might have underperformed but I feel this is a much easier sell.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby numbersix » April 25th, 2018, 3:32 am

Woah, that's a bold prediction on Avengers, Walleye.

Gotta say I disagree. Look at how Avengers 2 performed. A drop from the first film in its opening weekend and an IM of 2.4. Not so much franchise fatigue but more people being disappointed by the high expectations.

So what's different now? Well, Black Panther to be specific, but bet he's not in it enough to please the newly gained fans. So I think a high opening, 230m or so, but no way do you see that high a hold. Maybe a cume of 600m.

Top 5
1. Avengers - 230M
2 A Quiet Place - 11M
3 Rampage - 9M
4 I Feel Pretty - 8M
5. Super troopers 7M

PTA: Avengers, Disobedience, The Rider, A Quiet Place, Super Troopers
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby Buscemi2 » April 25th, 2018, 4:07 am

In addition, reviews have been rather underwhelming (68 on Metacritic, which I guess for Marvel would be Justice League levels). Yes, the film's going to break some records but I'm thinking it's going to play like Mockingjay Part I did minus the holiday bump: muted but enthusiastic enough to keep fans interested until the second half of Infinity War (is this still going to be a sequel?) next year.

And did Marvel officially disassociate Inhumans from the MCU? Because Feige and the fans are certainly trying their hardest to pretend this never happened and claim the MCU is still perfect (though both the Inhumans film/series and the need to revamp Thor into a Guardians of the Galaxy-type series suggests otherwise).
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby W » April 25th, 2018, 8:58 am

Practically no one besides those that are avid comic readers know what Inhumans is. So I'm guessing less than a tenth of a percent of the Avengers crowd is using that for or against the MCU.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby undeadmonkey » April 25th, 2018, 12:41 pm

The tv show inhumans was never supposed to be a part of the MCU.

I can see Avengers beating the opening record $250M, but i'm like 98% positive it ends in a cliffhanger, like Deathly Hallows Part 1 (although everyone's denying it) and holds for the first part are always terrible. I can't see it going past $600M.

Meaning for the draft there is only a guaranteed $300M. and there are other films that can easily surpass that

Curses on Disney for moving the date. Also curses on fox for moving New Mutants
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » April 25th, 2018, 1:27 pm

Hm, never considered it breaking TFA's OW record, but it's definitely possible. I'll say it comes close, but just misses.

1. Avengers: Infinity War - $245M
2. A Quiet Place - $10M
3. Rampage - $9M
4. I Feel Pretty - $7M
5. Super Troopers 2 - $5.5M
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby Buscemi2 » April 25th, 2018, 5:14 pm

undeadmonkey wrote:The tv show inhumans was never supposed to be a part of the MCU.



Except it was. Inhumans was part of the Phase Two release schedule and was always part of Feige's MCU plans (the ABC shows are connected with the movies). In addition, the fact that the pilot got a theatrical release makes it hard to ignore.

You can't Fantastic Four 2015 this black mark.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby undeadmonkey » April 25th, 2018, 6:51 pm

besides you, i don't know anyone else who keeps bringing it up or even knows it exists.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby Shrykespeare » April 25th, 2018, 7:07 pm

It's tough to keep it all straight. Apart from the movies, you have Agents of Shield, Inhumans, and all the Netflix series that are technically (and somewhat tenuously) connected to the Marvel Universe. I have to wonder why the Avengers and X-Men series have never once overlapped each other.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby Buscemi2 » April 25th, 2018, 7:13 pm

undeadmonkey wrote:besides you, i don't know anyone else who keeps bringing it up or even knows it exists.


Because it's proof that the MCU isn't the perfect series people say it is. Inhumans was universally reviled and pretending it doesn't exist won't change the fact that Marvel's had a dud on their track record.

Yes, other series have had bad installments. But claiming Marvel can do no wrong is hypocritical.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby Shrykespeare » April 25th, 2018, 7:38 pm

I don't know if anyone's claiming that, Boosh. No entity has a 100% track record. Even Pixar can't get it right all the time (Cars 3), nor Disney (Wrinkle in Time).

As a matter of total disinterest, were any of the Punisher movies (Dolph Lundgren, Thomas Jane, whoever the fuck played him in War Zone) part of the Marvel Universe? Please say no... Then of course, you have Affleck's Daredevil, Garner's Elektra, I'm pretty sure there was a Swamp Thing movie at some point...
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby Buscemi2 » April 25th, 2018, 10:15 pm

Swamp Thing was DC (I've read a new incarnation of him is being saved for Justice League Dark at New Line). Marvel had Man-Thing (who had a film so bad it bypassed theatres and went straight to Syfy).

And the MCU began with Iron Man. The Punisher character was still with Lionsgate at the time.

But what I'm getting at is that the Marvel fan community comes off as the type who refuse to own up to their failures. Most places learn from their mistakes and attempt to make the next one better. Hell, some places wear that failure as a badge of what not to do (look at Ford, the Edsel is more legendary in death for being such a miscalculated error). You can't just ignore something and pretend it never happened. The proof was on IMAX screens for two weeks, TV screens on Friday nights for eight, and was hyped by both Marvel and IMAX as the future of multimedia synergy. It ended up being the first MCU production to fail to gross $100 million at the box office and its follow-up died on arrival.

Inhumans is proof that no company is invincible.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby Walleye413 » April 25th, 2018, 11:12 pm

Okay, yes, Inhumans sucked. I think we all agree.

Any predictions on who dies in Avengers? With Thanos' whole bit being killing 50% I keep thinking of pairs and who dies. My guesses:

Vision - paired with Scarlett Witch who survives at least until the next one.

Loki - paired with Thor. I think Loki dies in the first scene.

Pepper Potts - paired with Tony Stark. They could also pair Tony with Cap but I think that's in the sequel

Bucky - paired with Cap

I think 3 big "deaths" happen in this one, maybe 4. Don't think it's more than that. And none of the original 6. They'll save them for the sequel.

Side note - Obviously Spiderman and everyone in Black Panther are safe.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 4/27

Postby Buscemi2 » April 25th, 2018, 11:33 pm

I'm saying Hawkeye. Marvel's never going to do anything with the character anyway. Same with Scarlet Witch.
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