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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby transformers2 » April 18th, 2018, 2:16 pm

As Confucius once said, nothing is stronger than a bond between a man and his primate friend that's been involuntarily mutated by some nefarious corporation.

Riding the ball of charisma that is Dwayne Johnson and reviews that were downright glowing considering the level of venom critics typically reserve for video game adaptations, Rampage topped the box office with a $35.7 mil opening that narrowly cleared the low-end of its studio projections. While video game films tend to be very frontloaded (last month's relatively well-received Tomb Raider reboot fell 57% in its 2nd weekend) and it has the supreme misfortune of running into the Infinity War buzzsaw next weekend, Johnson's rabid fanbase paired with a pretty enthusiastic audience response could give this old-fashioned monster flick enough juice to cross the $100 mil blockbuster threshold.

Elsewhere, A Quiet Place posted an excellent 2nd weekend, raking in nearly $33 mil,down just 34% from its OW, and clearing $100 mil after just 9 days of release while the whippersnappers made us look foolish for underestimating Blumhouse's latest Truth or Dare, which posted a solid $18.7 mil debut that was good enough for a 3rd place finish. Holdovers Ready Player One and Blockers rounded out the top 5 with slightly higher than expected drops (53% for RPO, 48% for Blockers) that seems to suggest that the WOM for both of these well-reviewed titles isn't as strong as the industry folks pegged it to be.

Introspective drama The Rider was the champ on the arthouse front, posting a modest $14,081 PTA in 3 theaters. As uninspiring as those numbers are, it's still one of the stronger limited release openings of 2018 thus far and appears set to rack up some more points over the next couple of weeks.

Wide Releases:
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Just under a year after her last headlining project, the adventure comedy Snatched, failed to replicate the breakout success of 2015's Trainwreck, Amy Schumer is heading back to the romantic comedy well with I Feel Pretty (STX). Schumer plays Renee Barrett, a single, 30-something woman that works at a New York-based cosmetics company whose insecurity about her looks and body is highly detrimental to her quality of life. After sustaining a head injury following a fall during her Soul Cycle class, Renee suddenly transforms into a supremely confident woman who believes she is the most beautiful and capable woman in the world.

While Schumer is polling somewhere between herpes and Sean Hannity in the court of public opinion and its plot has generated dozens of thinkpieces condemning the nature of its plot, I Feel Pretty should do fine. It's attempt to put forth an inspiring message for women should attract a decent-sized audience and barring some unforeseen tomfoolery, I expect strong WOM that will allow it hold well through Mother's Day weekend. This body-positive romcom should open somewhere in the low-to-mid-teens this weekend, post 5-7 top 5 points, 1-2 PTA and end up somewhere around $40-45 mil by the end of its run. At $8, it's an intriguing APR-Jun ULT pick-even with the fierce competition and be gifted a poor IMDb score (I actually think it will end up lower than Snatched's 4.4) from the very tolerant dudes that demonstrate their kindness every so often by downvoting the shit out of certain female-fronted movies, but it's $11 BO price tag is probably a little bit too hefty to make it worthwhile.


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16 years after they got into fistfights with fast food workers, simulated sex with grizzly bears and exposed a drug-smuggling ring involving an entire small town Vermont police department, the most immature highway patrol team in the country is back for another adventure in Super Troopers 2 (Fox Searchlight). Thorny, Farva, Rabbit, Mac, Foster and Captain O'Hagen are now being tasked with introducing a police force (Will Sasso, Tyler Labine, Hayes MacArthur, Paul Walter Hauser) from a Canadian border town that was recently discovered to actually be located in Vermont to the prejudice-free, supremely functional ways of Uncle Sam's law enforcement as well as the general delights of being an American citizen. If I were a gambling man, I'd say that culture-clash hijinks will ensue!

As the success of Broken Lizard's 2015 Indiegogo Campaign demonstrated, there are people out there (including yours truly) that are excited about this long in-the-works sequel. However, Super Troopers was the epitome of a cult movie and I doubt that too many newcomers will show up for the 2nd installment of a proudly dumb R-rated comedy that was theatrically released in 2002. A somewhat sizable contingent of fans of the Altered State Police that don't consume too many jazz cigarettes on Friday will likely show up on opening day, but I expect business for the rest of the weekend to be pretty slow. Barring a gross lowballing of the original's popularity, Super Troopers 2 should net an OW in the high-single digits, 1 Top 5 point, and IMDb score in the low-to-mid 6's before it careens off a slick Green Mountain State cliff. Even at the bargain basement price of $5 in both formats, this Meowsterpiece isn't likely going to make much of an impact in our game.


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(I couldn't find a version of the poster that wasn't fucking massive, so please enjoy this photo of Flavor Flav performing with Public Enemy instead)
On this late April weekend where the playoffs in half of America's 4 major sports leagues are underway, Summit Entertainment invites you to spend an evening away from your couch watching a pulse-pounding thriller that apparently involves sex trafficking from the creative force behind the groundbreaking Mike Epps-led satire Meet the Blacks and some horror anthology film called Nite Tales that was narrated by Flavor Flav that I just discovered before I sat down to write this piece.

While these heavyweight credentials are bound to pique the interest of any true cinephile, the fact that Traffik (Lionsgate/Summit) is receiving a wide theatrical release is kind of mind-blowing. Between its cast of largely suspect veteran actors (Paula Patton, Missi Pyle, Omar Epps, Laz Alonso, Roselyn Sanchez, Luke Goss, Dawn Oliveri) and schlocky premise, that was VERY poorly conveyed in its trailer, about a group of motorcycle-riding sex traffickers that are hellbent on recovering a phone full of damning information that was slipped into the purse of a vacationing journalist (Patton) in a gas station bathroom, this seems like the type of movie Lionsgate Premiere or Vertical Entertainment pedals out on VOD every few months to dupe people out of $7. Lionsgate clearly shares my lack of faith since they're only releasing Traffik in about 1,000 theaters this weekend. This cheap thriller should open to $2 mil and pull down about $3 mil overall before it loses the vast majority of its screens to whatever holdover gets downgraded to your local multiplex's smallest auditorium next weekend. Like the sketchy gas station bathroom that puts this film's plot into motion, you should avoid Traffik in any non-emergency situation.


Limited Releases:
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A fact that could be regarded as fun if your life is REALLY low on excitement: Figuring out if Godard Mon Amour or Redoubtable or Whatever the Fuck They Decided to Call This Jean-Luc Godard biopic in the United States (Cohen Media Group) was being released this weekend took me more time than it did to gather my thoughts on this film. This 2017 Palm d'Or finalist got mixed reviews in its native France and is being released by a distributor that has no track record of success. In other words, this ship ain't leaving the port people. It's ability to possibly eek out a PTA point or two for just $3 makes it a so-so gamble, but it'll more than likely end up going down as a pretty anonymous piece of slate-filler on your slate.


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Holy shit!!!! William Friedkin directed a documentary about exorcisms!!!! Isn't that whacky?!??!?! While his motivations for taking on such a project are unclear, it almost seem like an exorcism was at the center of a wildly successful film he directed once upon a time.

Even with an iconic director at the helm, The Devil and Father Amorth (The Orchard) is set to face an uphill battle upon its release. The film got less-than-enthusiastic reviews following its premiere at Venice last fall, with numerous critics labeling it as exploitative and amateurish and documentaries typically need glowing praise in order to succeed in limited release. Friedkin's involvement and the gimmick of showing a real-life exorcism on screen could lead to some decent OW numbers, but The Devil and Father Amorth is far from a sure thing and for that reason alone, I wouldn't bother putting this on your slate.


Weekend Predictions
1.A Quiet Place $20.5 mil
2.Rampage $18 mil
3.I Feel Pretty $14 mil
4.Truth or Dare $8 mil
5.Super Troopers 2 $7 mil

PTA: The Rider, A Quiet Place, Rampage, The Devil and Father Amorth,I Feel Pretty

Tune in next week when Walleye discusses how many records Avengers: Infinity War will shatter and perhaps offer a few thoughts on the Rachel McAdams/Rachel Weisz-led indie drama Disobedience.
Last edited by transformers2 on April 18th, 2018, 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby Buscemi2 » April 18th, 2018, 2:36 pm

Traffik will likely play better than $3 million this weekend. The director's last film (Meet the Blacks) actually made money and these kinds of thrillers have an audience (remember when Kidnap played better than any of us thought it would?).

I'd be surprised if I Feel Pretty hit $10 million. Schumer's audience is fast eroding and the PG-13 rating mutes her style of humor (all that's left is her love of herself).

And then there's Super Troopers 2. Reviews haven't been very good and Broken Lizard seems to have made too many broken promises with it (we were supposed to get this film at least two years ago). It might actually finish below Traffik this weekend.

As for the limited releases, The Devil and Father Amorth might be getting Friedkin's worst reviews in a while. This combined with the short run time (68 minutes) makes you wonder if this was supposed to be an extra on a future Blu-ray of The Exorcist.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby transformers2 » April 18th, 2018, 4:08 pm

It's entirely conceivable that Traffik overperforms, but to say that Meet the Blacks "made money" is a gross exaggeration. It had a $4 mil opening (which met its tracking numbers) and finished with just over $9 mil overall.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby Buscemi2 » April 18th, 2018, 4:32 pm

I was thinking it made $15 million for some reason. But still, that thing overperformed (most of those self-distributed films are lucky to make a million).

But if that could play with an audience, I'm thinking this one will too. Lionsgate has been pushing Traffik and it doesn't feel like an afterthought for its distributor.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby numbersix » April 18th, 2018, 6:18 pm

I was expecting I Feel Pretty to open higher. There has been a lack of female oriented film for a while, unless Blockers is considered so? So might get that crowd out for the weekend. But tracking is suggesting otherwise.

All the others are DOA. Super Troopers 2 just makes no sense after the poor performance of the first. I guess it's popular at hot box parties.

Weekend Predictions
1.A Quiet Place $22 mil
2. I Feel Pretty $16 mil
3..Rampage $15.5 mil
4.Truth or Dare $8 mil
5.Ready Player One $7 mil

PTA: A Quiet Place, The Rider, The Devil and Father Amorth,I Feel Pretty, Rampage
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby Buscemi2 » April 18th, 2018, 6:30 pm

Super Troopers was a big hit on home video. But so were a lot of movies that got sequels years later only not to have audiences show up.

And May is stacked with female-oriented fare. I expect audiences will wait then for less polarizing product.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby Chienfantome » April 19th, 2018, 4:17 am

Don't count Godard mon amour out yet.
Godard is a myth to many film lovers, and if the film only opens in a handful of NY and LA theaters, the film should have no trouble making at least around 10,000$ per theater, which should be good for a few PTA points.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby W » April 19th, 2018, 8:27 am

Buscemi2 wrote:Super Troopers was a big hit on home video. But so were a lot of movies that got sequels years later only not to have audiences show up.

And May is stacked with female-oriented fare. I expect audiences will wait then for less polarizing product.


I want to see Super Troopers 2 but not as much as a decade ago. I'd wait until home video, but with Moviepass I'll probably see it in theaters. I'm guessing if they made this instead of Beerfest or Club Dread, it'd hit $50M. Now? Probably not. $25-30 M total would be my guess.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby Shrykespeare » April 19th, 2018, 8:08 pm

Does anyone know if Dolphins or Duck Duck Goose is ACTUALLY being released this weekend?


Theater Counts:

I Feel Pretty - 3,440
Super Troopers 2 - 2,038
Traffik - 1,046



Next Week:

Avengers: Infinity War - 4,200




Celebrity birthdays:

Ashley Judd turned 50 on 4/19
James Franco turned 40 on 4/19
Andie Macdowell tuns 60 on 4/21
Happy 40th birthday Michelle Rodriguez! (7/12/18)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby Buscemi2 » April 19th, 2018, 9:26 pm

I saw Super Troopers 2 earlier. The showing (which also had the first film shown before it) didn't sell out but it has an excellent audience reception. It might do better than we thought.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby W » April 20th, 2018, 9:29 am

Shrykespeare wrote:Does anyone know if Dolphins or Duck Duck Goose is ACTUALLY being released this weekend?



Nope. Both look like they're pulled according to BOM, IMDb, and HSX.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby Shrykespeare » April 21st, 2018, 2:08 pm

Friday Estimates

Super Troopers 2, $7.9M :shock: :shock: :shock:
A Quiet Place, $6.4M
I Feel Pretty, $6.2M
Rampage, $5M
Truth or Dare, $2.5M
Blockers, $2.1M
Ready Player One, $1.9M
Bharat Ane Nenu, $1.5M
Traffik, $1.4M
Black Panther, $1.2M




Weekend Projections:

A Quiet Place, $22.7M
Rampage, $18M
I Feel Pretty, $17M
Super Troopers 2, $15M
Truth or Dare, $7.8M
Ready Player One, $7.3M
Blockers, $7M
Black Panther, $4.9M
Traffik, $3.8M
Isle of Dogs, $3.2M
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby Buscemi2 » April 21st, 2018, 4:51 pm

Every Friday night showing of Super Troopers 2 sold out at the theatre I usually frequent. But nostalgia plays well here.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby Shrykespeare » April 22nd, 2018, 1:17 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - A Quiet Place, $22.0M
4 points - Rampage, $21.0M
3 points - I Feel Pretty, $16.2M
2 points - Super Troopers 2, $14.7M
1 point - Truth or Dare, $7.9M
Ready Player One, $7.5M
Blockers, $7.0M
Black Panther, $4.6M
Traffik, $3.9M
Isle of Dogs, $3.4M



PTA:
5 points - The Rider
4 points - Super Troopers 2
3 points - A Quiet Place
2 points - Rampage
1 point - I Feel Pretty

Redoubtable and Father Amorth both missed.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/20

Postby Shrykespeare » April 23rd, 2018, 7:22 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - A Quiet Place, $20.9M (14)
4 points - Rampage, $20.1M (9)
3 points - I Feel Pretty, $16.0M (3)
2 points - Super Troopers 2, $15.2M (2)
1 point - Truth or Dare, $7.8M (4)
Ready Player One, $7.4M
Blockers, $6.8M
Black Panther, $4.9M
Traffik, $3.9M
Isle of Dogs, $3.5M



PTA:
5 points - The Rider, $7,920 (10)
4 points - Super Troopers 2, $7,449 (4)
3 points - A Quiet Place, $5,492 (11)
2 points - Rampage, $4,883 (5)
1 point - I Feel Pretty, $4,660 (1)
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