SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/11-1
Posted: April 10th, 2018, 2:14 pm
There’s nothing like a complete shock to get you all excited about box office biz. A Quiet Place was a deafening din in cinemas around the world, with its great marketing campaign and positive reviews luring audiences in, and good word of mouth ensuring a healthy life as possibly the biggest horror we’ll see in 2018.
Sadly, that means this week will fail to have any real surprises, unless by surprise you mean complete failure, which is totally on the cards.
Rampage (Warner Bros) is an adaptation of the classic arcade game in which monsters brainlessly battled each other. Warner locked in on the brainless aspect to make a FX-driven action film in which The Rock teams up with a giant gorilla to battle monsters. Genius. The film is trying to capitalise on video game nostalgia, much like Ready Player One did (in a less coked-up EVERYTHING IS AWESOME manner).
The film had potential to be an April hit, but the move of MCU #85 to late April forced the great ape into retreat, and closer to Spielberg’s 80s bukkake party. Still, especially with The Rock being involved, this film could perform a little like Pixels, another hollow attempt at reviving the moribund hearts of men in their 40s. So an opening in the mid 30s but a skyscraper-sized collapse seeing it end up around the 80m mark. But that may result in 13 T5 points, 3 PTA points, and a low 6s IMDB score, making it worth it if you’re a mid-level manic in Ultimate, but its $19/17 price in BO is too damn high.
Oh, what a bridesmaid Truth or Dare (Universal) will turn out to be. The Blumhouse production is based around the sex-drive starting teen game, only in this version something supernatural kills anyone who doesn’t play along. It’s got a Ouija vibe to it, being another teen-led horror about something familiar, and the premise is interesting enough. But then A Quiet Place skulked out of nowhere and is silently killing this film. Who is going to see this when there’s a bigger, better horror out there? And will fans of the first flock to the next? Unlikely. I think a $10m opening and $25m close is all this can muster up, and it’ll just manage to hit the Top 5 this week. A few months ago I was excited about this one, but truth be told you can do better.
Next up is Sgt Stu…. ah who cares…
On the limited front, the most intriguing film is Beirut (Bleecker Street), a political thriller set during the Lebanese Civil War. It stars John Hamm and Rose Pike, and was directed by Brad Anderson (The Call, The Machinist) and written by Tony Gilroy. Having received plenty of acclaim when it opened in Sundance, this could be a nice little earner on the PTA front, despite its Wednesday release. 6 or 7 PTA points and a decent IMDB score could be in the cards, so it’s well worth the punt for $3 or $4.
Finally, The Rider gets released by Sony Classics. It’s about an injured cowboy who takes a long hard look at this life. And no computer game apes appear. The intimate movie came out in Cannes last year to much acclaim, although the buzz has dropped considerably. It may get some asses on seats, but it won’t be a PTA minefield.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Rampage - $33m
2. A Quiet Place - $24m
3. Ready Player One - $12m
4. Truth or Dare - $10m
5. Blockers - $10m
PTA: Beirut, You Were Never, Rampage, A Quiet Place, The Rider
Next week we’ll see Tranny take a look at Amy Schumer vehicle I Feel Pretty, comedy sequel Super Troopers 2, thriller Traffik, limited releases Redoubtable and The Devil and Father Amorth, and possibly animation Duck Duck Goose and nature doc Dolphins. Hopefully the 4/20 inspired haze will inspire him.
Sadly, that means this week will fail to have any real surprises, unless by surprise you mean complete failure, which is totally on the cards.
Rampage (Warner Bros) is an adaptation of the classic arcade game in which monsters brainlessly battled each other. Warner locked in on the brainless aspect to make a FX-driven action film in which The Rock teams up with a giant gorilla to battle monsters. Genius. The film is trying to capitalise on video game nostalgia, much like Ready Player One did (in a less coked-up EVERYTHING IS AWESOME manner).
The film had potential to be an April hit, but the move of MCU #85 to late April forced the great ape into retreat, and closer to Spielberg’s 80s bukkake party. Still, especially with The Rock being involved, this film could perform a little like Pixels, another hollow attempt at reviving the moribund hearts of men in their 40s. So an opening in the mid 30s but a skyscraper-sized collapse seeing it end up around the 80m mark. But that may result in 13 T5 points, 3 PTA points, and a low 6s IMDB score, making it worth it if you’re a mid-level manic in Ultimate, but its $19/17 price in BO is too damn high.
Oh, what a bridesmaid Truth or Dare (Universal) will turn out to be. The Blumhouse production is based around the sex-drive starting teen game, only in this version something supernatural kills anyone who doesn’t play along. It’s got a Ouija vibe to it, being another teen-led horror about something familiar, and the premise is interesting enough. But then A Quiet Place skulked out of nowhere and is silently killing this film. Who is going to see this when there’s a bigger, better horror out there? And will fans of the first flock to the next? Unlikely. I think a $10m opening and $25m close is all this can muster up, and it’ll just manage to hit the Top 5 this week. A few months ago I was excited about this one, but truth be told you can do better.
Next up is Sgt Stu…. ah who cares…
On the limited front, the most intriguing film is Beirut (Bleecker Street), a political thriller set during the Lebanese Civil War. It stars John Hamm and Rose Pike, and was directed by Brad Anderson (The Call, The Machinist) and written by Tony Gilroy. Having received plenty of acclaim when it opened in Sundance, this could be a nice little earner on the PTA front, despite its Wednesday release. 6 or 7 PTA points and a decent IMDB score could be in the cards, so it’s well worth the punt for $3 or $4.
Finally, The Rider gets released by Sony Classics. It’s about an injured cowboy who takes a long hard look at this life. And no computer game apes appear. The intimate movie came out in Cannes last year to much acclaim, although the buzz has dropped considerably. It may get some asses on seats, but it won’t be a PTA minefield.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Rampage - $33m
2. A Quiet Place - $24m
3. Ready Player One - $12m
4. Truth or Dare - $10m
5. Blockers - $10m
PTA: Beirut, You Were Never, Rampage, A Quiet Place, The Rider
Next week we’ll see Tranny take a look at Amy Schumer vehicle I Feel Pretty, comedy sequel Super Troopers 2, thriller Traffik, limited releases Redoubtable and The Devil and Father Amorth, and possibly animation Duck Duck Goose and nature doc Dolphins. Hopefully the 4/20 inspired haze will inspire him.