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Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

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Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby Shrykespeare » March 22nd, 2018, 7:25 pm

I used to love column-writing, now I almost forgot how to do it.

This is coming way later than I thought it would, so this'll have to be the boiled-down version.

A Wrinkle in Time and then Tomb Raider failed to knock T'Challa out of the catbird seat, making Black Panther the first film since Avatar to hold the box office crown for five straight weeks. More than likely, Pacific Rim Uprising will do the job, though it won't be by much.

Guillermo del Toro, fresh of his Oscar win, is co-producing the sequel to his 2013 hit, allowing Steven S. DeKnight to take the directorial reins this time out. The original barely squeaked past the blockbuster line in the summer season five years ago, but odds are the sequel - basically the same story of giant robots (which make the Transformers look like can openers, height-wise) battle giant sea monsters that have returned to plague Earth. John Boyega takes a respite from the Star Wars franchise to lead the cast that includes returning members Charlie Day, Burn Gorman, and Rinko Kikuchi. Charlie Hunnam, Idris Elba, and (goddamn it) Ron Perlman are among those not returning.

The plot is pretty much irrelevant, as moviegoers will only buy a ticket to see big robots kick ass and major metropolises get fucked up. Uprising is getting a very good release platform from the folks at Universal, over 3,700 theaters. I think it will pull in around $23M, which should be more than enough to beat BP's sixth week. I foresee nine Top 5 points, three PTA, a fair-to-middling User Rating and about $65M. For only $13 in the March Ultimate Leagues, that's not all that bad.

For the much younger kids comes Sherlock Gnomes, a sequel to the 2011 animated hit Gnomeo and Juliet (which hilariously fell $33,000 short of blockbuster status. Johnny Depp cashes a paycheck as the titular Sherlock, who is brought in when garden gnomes start disappearing (heaven forfend!). The cast also includes Emily Blunt (coming up in A Quiet Place), Mary J. Blige, and ... MICHAEL CAINE? (shakes head). Okay, this film is critic proof, as parents of small kids will endure 85 minutes of fart jokes and such. This trailer looks stupid as fuck, but then, so did Peter Rabbit. Honestly, this could go either way, but I'll err on the side of good taste and say this won't be as big a hit. I foresee $15M OW, four Top 5, maybe 1-2 PTA, and $50M overall. It's $12 in Ultimate leagues, but the current Rating is 4.4, which will sink your slate like a ceramic troll-like figurine if you pick it. If you want it, make it in Box Office, where the horrible reviews won't hurt you.

I'm going to lump Paul Apostle of Christ, Midnight Sun, and Unsane into the "don't pick them" category. They're all between 1400 and 2100 theaters as far as release platform, and honestly, I doubt any of them will crack the Top 5 this week, earn $20M overall, or be worth even the handful of bucks you'd pay for them.

Wes Anderson is going animated again with Isle of Dogs, a very Wes Anderson-y looking film with an all-star cast that includes Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Bill Murray, Jeff Goldblum, and Best Actress winner Frances McDormand. Oh, and ScarJo, Harvey Keitel, and that guy who played Salieri. Honestly, it's Wes Anderson, which means it will be a PTA monster for as long as it stays limited (not sure how long that will be). The User Rating is already terrific (8.2), and while it doesn't look like it has the huge family appeal of Sherlock Gnomes *bangs head on desk*, I would highly recommend picking this up for $5. There aren't many sure things in PTA, but this is one of them. It's in 27 theaters, which is perfect.

Final Portrait is the story of Swiss painter/sculptor Alberto Giacometti (who?). It stars Geoffrey Rush, Armie Hammer, and Tony Shalhoub. I may not know much about art, but I do know a little about art-house films, and the three-theater count and the fact that it's Sony Classics makes me want to choose this film. It's only $3, so if you have room for it, it may be worth gambling on. I wouldn't count on more than four PTA, though.

Back to Burgundy is a French film. It's $3. *shrugs*


Top 5:
Giant Robots vs. Giant Monsters, $25M
#1 Marvel movie of all time, $17M
Dumb as Fuck kids' movie, $15M
AnJolie reboot, $10M
Who Would have "Imagined" such a hit?, $9M

PTA: Isle of Dogs, Final Portrait, Pacific Rim 2, I Can Only Imagine, Back to Burgundy


Next week, Six takes on Senor Spielbergo, and Tyler "Refrigerator" Perry's latest drama.
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby Shrykespeare » March 22nd, 2018, 7:43 pm

Weekend Theater Counts:

Pacific Rim Uprising - 3,708
Sherlock Gnomes - 3,662
Midnight Sun - 2,173
Unsane - 2,023
Paul, Apostle of Christ - 1,473
Isle of Dogs - 27
Final Portrait - 3


Next week:

Ready Player One - 4,100+ (Thu.)
TP's Acrimony - 2,000
God's Not Dead 3 - 1,500




Celebrity Birthdays:

Holly Hunter turned 60 on 3/20
Gary Oldman turned 60 on 3/21
Andrew Lloyd Webber turns 70 on 3/22
Finn Jones turns 30 on 3/24
Bonnie Bedelia turns 70 on 3/25
Happy 60th birthday Angela Bassett! (8/16/18)
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby Buscemi2 » March 22nd, 2018, 7:48 pm

Good thing I didn't write this one. I would have been nothing but ranty over the trends these wide releases are part of.

Also, I was out of town this week.

However, Unsane could do okay this weekend. Soderbergh still has enough fans to get him to $20-25 million at the box office. But I don't think his decision to shoot with an iPhone (if he wanted to be experimental, he should have made the film for under a million and cast unknowns in the roles) will sit well with audiences though.
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby numbersix » March 23rd, 2018, 4:40 am

Pretty decent predictions, I'd say. Pacific Rim may go a bit higher just because the original was so liked (though it must have made gazillions on home ent, because its BO performance ensured a loss)

I'm wondering if Paul Apostle of Christ might make more, being a spin off of the Jesus Cinematic Universe.

The rest should sink. I'd be surprised if any made over 5m.

Love your analysis of Back to Burgundy!

Predictions

1. Pacific Rimming - $28m
2. Sex Panther - $16m
3. The Next in a Series of Bad Gnome Puns ("coming in 2019: Gnome Alone") - $15m
4. Tomb Raider, or How Tight Can Those Pants Get - $10m
5. A Religious Battle: Who Will turn The Other Cheek - I Can Only Imagine/Paul AOC - $9m
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby transformers2 » March 23rd, 2018, 7:50 am

Pacific Rim Uprising got greenlit in large part due to the amount of money it made in China, South Korea and Japan.
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby numbersix » March 23rd, 2018, 8:00 am

Sure but globally it didn't make enough to cover its budget and P&A costs, which normally isn't a great sign.
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby transformers2 » March 23rd, 2018, 8:09 am

True, which is probably why they reduced the budget by $40-50 mil this time around.
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » March 23rd, 2018, 1:38 pm

numbersix wrote: ("coming in 2019: Gnome Alone")


Dammit Six, don't write this into a reality.
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby W » March 23rd, 2018, 1:48 pm

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:
numbersix wrote: ("coming in 2019: Gnome Alone")


Dammit Six, don't write this into a reality.


https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5851786/?ref_=nv_sr_1

I thought I saw this somewhere.
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby Buscemi2 » March 23rd, 2018, 1:51 pm

Gnome Alone was supposed to be out last year but the company that was set to release it fell into financial trouble.

I expect it will end up being straight-to-DVD at this point.
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby JohnErle » March 23rd, 2018, 1:59 pm

There's no business like Gnome business.
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » March 23rd, 2018, 2:35 pm

WHO GAVE SIX THESE POWERS?!
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby Buscemi2 » March 23rd, 2018, 2:44 pm

He actually helps make movies for a living, Banks. IMDb page and everything.
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby numbersix » March 23rd, 2018, 2:54 pm

My powers are exclusively limited to gnome jokes, though.

But I embrace it. When in gnome, after all...
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Re: Speare's Tips: The Legend Continues: The Films of 3/23

Postby Shrykespeare » March 23rd, 2018, 3:09 pm

Others on the table:

Bio-Gnome
Gnome for the Holidays
Daddy's Gnome
Sweet Gnome Alabama
It Gnomes at Night
Gnomes Like it Hot
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