SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/09

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/09

Post by numbersix »

The Oscars are over. The preaching rich folk can pat themselves on the back for solving inequality, sexism, and racism, while they chomp on their In-And-Out burger, while we all celebrate the small but passionate world of fish-fuckers. At the box office, Sex Panther is dominating the box-office once more, holding harder than most blockbusters and potentially making this one of the biggest films of all time. And no one seemed to care about Jennifer Lawrence having hardcore sex, at least not with a Russian accent as bad as that, or in Bruce Willis getting his guns out for the first time in a week.

This weekend is as busy as hell, with presumably the Oscar winners expanding one last time, and having to face 4 wide releases.



With Black Panther topping the box office, it looks like Disney’s success is going to be challenged… by Disney. Welcome to the future, kids. A Wrinkle in Time (Buena Vista) is a tentpole family film based on the 60s novel about a young girl who sets off to find her planet-exploring father. There’s a strong supporting cast which includes Oprah, Reese Witherspoon, Mindy Kaling, and Chris Pine, and it’s one of, if not THE first studio blockbuster films to be directed by a female African American, Ava Duvernay.

There’s a lot going for this film. In theory. Duvernay’s opportunity and Oprah’s legions of fans can help win over the Black Panther crowd. Yet, as we’ve neared the release date the buzz has gotten significantly weaker. A lot like another Disney film, Tomorrowland, which had great trailers and a good cast but just couldn’t win over audiences. And so A Wrinkle in Time may face a similar fate, opening in the mid 30s and barely hitting 100m. It may not even beat Black Panther to the top spot. With prices ranging from $25-32 in BO and ultimate, you’re going to need it to do better than the 10 T5, 4PTA, and low 6s IMDB score that I suspect it will end up with.

The next few places are a mash-up of potential wildcards and duds. I call it…

MID-LEVEL (SEMI) MADNESS


Yes, we’ve got three films are fighting to take the prestigious third place and then disappear. But who has the chops to climb that peak. All come from independent distributors who are aiming to saturate the market, and all target a different audience. And all are in the $5-$7m range in both Ultimate and Box Office. Let’s take a look.



In the gun-steel grey corner is current favourite The Hurricane Heist (Entertainment). What should be a film about a team of storm-chaser who decide to wrap the reins around a tornado and drive it into banks to reap the rewards, is actually a disappointingly normal film about a gang who use a storm to hide the fruits of their criminal labour.



In the blood-red corner is Strangers: Prey at Night (Aviron), a sequel so delayed that most of us who saw the original are one step in the retirement home. It follows a family who are being hunted by a gang of masked men in a deserted mobile home.



In the oh-so hilariously yellow corner stands Gringo (STX), starring David Oyelowo as a mild-manner company schlub who ends up heading to Mexico to spearhead a marijuana pill, only to be abducted by some brownie boys. The impressive cast also includes Charlize Theron and Joel Edgerton.

So, who will win out? Entertainment Studios have started off strong with their bullish release strategy. However, Hurricane Heist lacks the stars (indeed its cast have all failed to make it big) and the premise isn’t as instantly attractive as shark flick 47 Metres Down. Despite the predictions, this isn’t going to be a hit. Gringo has the cast, but STX have struggled lately, and the early buzz on this film is non-existent. The cast is strong, though. But I’m actually going to go out on a limb and say Strangers 2 will be the best of the three. Not due to fans of the original (the Alzheimer’s has already kicked in), but because it’s the only horror film this month, and with Winchester failing this has the potential to please the fans. Just don’t expect it to hold well.




On the limited front, Thoroughbreds (Focus) is a much hyped dark comedy that opened in Sundance 2017 to a huge amount of acclaim. It stars Anya Taylor-Joy and Olivia Cooke as a pair of scheming little biatches. The reviews are strong, the trailers are strong, pretty much everything about this film says PTA goldmine. As long as the theatre count is low, expect at least 6 in the game, and potentially much more. Get it in ultimate, and you might even see it break out and be worth $2 in BO.




But never underestimate the oldies. They’ve moved on from The Strangers to films like The Leisure Seeker (SPC), in which an elderly couple go on a road adventure in their old RV. Helen Mirren and Donald Sutherland scream class, and Paolo Virzi’s first English language flick has been exceeding expectations abroad so far. This could be a surprise little PTA earner, so consider it if you’ve got a $3 gap on your slate.



My predictions for the weekend
1. Black Panther - $35m
2. A Wrinkle in Time - $32m
3. Strangers 2 - $10m
4. Gringo - $8m
5. Red Sparrow - $8m

PTA: Thoroughbreds, The Leisure Seeker, Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, Foxtrot

Next week, Shryke returns to the throne (sorry dude, I think my ass grooves are going to distract you) to take a look at another attempt to make a movie-copying video game to a movie-copying movie-copying video game adaptation, Tomb Raider, as well as gay drama Love Simon, country-singer biopic I Can Only Imagine, and limited releases 7 Days in Entebbe and Back to Burgundy.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by Shrykespeare »

I appreciate the shout-out, Six, but it's actually Walleye that's the Colonizer ... I mean Columnizer next week. I get the following week, where I get to tackle the giant robot movie franchise attempting to usurp that other giant robot movie franchise. Which it won't, but at least this series doesn't take itself so farkin' seriously. But I digress...
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by numbersix »

That's what I get for writing columns first thing in the morning before my brain wakes up.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by Chienfantome »

I've never been very confident about that Wrinkle Disney film. The story looks so weak and the universe weird. The Disney brand is the only thing that will get it a bit high in numbers.

That Hurricane Heist is gonna make a shitload of money though. How can it not with such a title ?! ;)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by W »

Chienfantome wrote:I've never been very confident about that Wrinkle Disney film. The story looks so weak and the universe weird. The Disney brand is the only thing that will get it a bit high in numbers.

That Hurricane Heist is gonna make a shitload of money though. How can it not with such a title ?! ;)
Wrinkle in Time is a fairly beloved young adult novel here. From the early '60's, it has name recognition from grandparents through kids of today. I know I read it in elementary school and my kid read it a year or two ago. I'm not 100% that will help it, but it makes the universe a bit more palatable.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by Chienfantome »

Really ? Damn, I knew about the book connection, but as I had never heard of it, I thought it was obscure.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by Shrykespeare »

I got a copy of the book as a kid. Interestingly enough, I never read it.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

numbersix wrote: a film about a team of storm-chaser who decide to wrap the reins around a tornado and drive it into banks to reap the rewards
Well now that's a movie I wanna see
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by numbersix »

In my film the cops hire a rogue, angry fish to hunt the thieves down. It's called Storm Riders Vs Sharknado

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Im gunning for that yellow corner movie, but i think you are right, The Strangers 2 late will "win"

2 months ago i thought A wrinkle in Time would be an easy $200M+ movie possibly more with the whole Disney tag attached, not so much now, especially after following the ridiculously succesful Sex Panther, on track for $600+?? I mean come on...it can't be that good of a movie...can it?

I was going to watch it/black panther when i was in town for my birthday but after much drinking and babbling shit to strangers (for 3 straight days with the occasional snooze) i suffered a massive hangover and just thought there was no way im sitting through anything, lesson: don't drink so much, and movies and drinks don't mix and just dont drink Jack Daniels, i thought it was ok at first, but whiskey is best enjoyed single malt not american style but scotch
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by Buscemi2 »

I have to wonder if A Wrinkle in Time is simply an unfilmable story. The first attempt in the 2000's was a miniseries that got shelved for a couple years before getting dumped on television in a heavily-edited form. And this version is getting both mixed reviews and hated on by racists because Meg is biracial this time. In addition, tracking has been extremely disappointing for a Disney title (a strong comparison would be John Carter six years ago, where the combination of mixed reviews and a dreadful promotional campaign led to a box office result that got people at Disney fired*).

Ava DuVernay had a very good run with her self-financed films and Selma, but I have to wonder if the direction she's taking her career (her next film is a straight-to-Netflix project based on an obscure Twitter meme) is going to hurt in the long run.

On the other hand, I feel The Strangers: Prey at Night is being massively underestimated. The original has gotten a new appreciation for some bizarre reason (You're Next is a far better home invasion thriller and yet it seems as if that one has fallen into obscurity) and this installment has been decently marketed. In addition, long waits some of the time have benefited sequels, especially follow-ups to cult films. I could actually see this opening to $15 million.

Meanwhile, I must wonder if Gringo's really bad as there's a critic embargo on it. The cast and Amazon's involvement (as well as Joel Edgerton's brother/Ewan McGregor's stunt double as the helm) would suggest a decently reviewed film.

* - I'm not expecting firings this time but they'll likely use the film as an excuse once the Disney/Fox merger is final and some positions become redundant.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

A Wrinkle in Time - 3,980
Strangers: Prey at Night - 2,464
Gringo - 2,404
The Hurricane Heist - 2,402
Thoroughbreds - 549 :shock: :shock: :shock:
The Leisure Seeker - 28


Damn. There went T'breds' PTA chances.



Next week:

Tomb Raider - n/a
Love, Simon - 2,400
I Can Only Imagine - n/a
7 Days in Entebbe - 800




Celebrity birthdays:

Linda Fiorentino (remember her from MIB?) turned 60 on 3/9
Sharon Stone (gratuitous beaver shot!) turned 60 on 3/10
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by Buscemi2 »

I had mentioned Thoroughbreds was getting a decent-sized release a couple weeks back. The fact that Focus sat on it for so long suggests that they are basically dumping it.

Focus is also more or less dumping 7 Days in Entebbe, which has been getting dreadful reviews.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by Buscemi2 »

You might end up regretting taking A Wrinkle in Time in Ultimates. The IMDb rating is a 3.5, thanks to racists and people who seem to think everything is either the best thing ever or the worst thing ever.

One review claims it's the worst Disney movie ever. Obviously the reviewer never saw Superdad or one of their TV movies.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores (none particularly good):

A Wrinkle in Time: B
The Hurricane Heist: B-
Gringo: C+
Strangers: Prey at Night: C
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