SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 03/09
Posted: March 7th, 2018, 5:36 am
The Oscars are over. The preaching rich folk can pat themselves on the back for solving inequality, sexism, and racism, while they chomp on their In-And-Out burger, while we all celebrate the small but passionate world of fish-fuckers. At the box office, Sex Panther is dominating the box-office once more, holding harder than most blockbusters and potentially making this one of the biggest films of all time. And no one seemed to care about Jennifer Lawrence having hardcore sex, at least not with a Russian accent as bad as that, or in Bruce Willis getting his guns out for the first time in a week.
This weekend is as busy as hell, with presumably the Oscar winners expanding one last time, and having to face 4 wide releases.
With Black Panther topping the box office, it looks like Disney’s success is going to be challenged… by Disney. Welcome to the future, kids. A Wrinkle in Time (Buena Vista) is a tentpole family film based on the 60s novel about a young girl who sets off to find her planet-exploring father. There’s a strong supporting cast which includes Oprah, Reese Witherspoon, Mindy Kaling, and Chris Pine, and it’s one of, if not THE first studio blockbuster films to be directed by a female African American, Ava Duvernay.
There’s a lot going for this film. In theory. Duvernay’s opportunity and Oprah’s legions of fans can help win over the Black Panther crowd. Yet, as we’ve neared the release date the buzz has gotten significantly weaker. A lot like another Disney film, Tomorrowland, which had great trailers and a good cast but just couldn’t win over audiences. And so A Wrinkle in Time may face a similar fate, opening in the mid 30s and barely hitting 100m. It may not even beat Black Panther to the top spot. With prices ranging from $25-32 in BO and ultimate, you’re going to need it to do better than the 10 T5, 4PTA, and low 6s IMDB score that I suspect it will end up with.
The next few places are a mash-up of potential wildcards and duds. I call it…
MID-LEVEL (SEMI) MADNESS
Yes, we’ve got three films are fighting to take the prestigious third place and then disappear. But who has the chops to climb that peak. All come from independent distributors who are aiming to saturate the market, and all target a different audience. And all are in the $5-$7m range in both Ultimate and Box Office. Let’s take a look.
In the gun-steel grey corner is current favourite The Hurricane Heist (Entertainment). What should be a film about a team of storm-chaser who decide to wrap the reins around a tornado and drive it into banks to reap the rewards, is actually a disappointingly normal film about a gang who use a storm to hide the fruits of their criminal labour.
In the blood-red corner is Strangers: Prey at Night (Aviron), a sequel so delayed that most of us who saw the original are one step in the retirement home. It follows a family who are being hunted by a gang of masked men in a deserted mobile home.
In the oh-so hilariously yellow corner stands Gringo (STX), starring David Oyelowo as a mild-manner company schlub who ends up heading to Mexico to spearhead a marijuana pill, only to be abducted by some brownie boys. The impressive cast also includes Charlize Theron and Joel Edgerton.
So, who will win out? Entertainment Studios have started off strong with their bullish release strategy. However, Hurricane Heist lacks the stars (indeed its cast have all failed to make it big) and the premise isn’t as instantly attractive as shark flick 47 Metres Down. Despite the predictions, this isn’t going to be a hit. Gringo has the cast, but STX have struggled lately, and the early buzz on this film is non-existent. The cast is strong, though. But I’m actually going to go out on a limb and say Strangers 2 will be the best of the three. Not due to fans of the original (the Alzheimer’s has already kicked in), but because it’s the only horror film this month, and with Winchester failing this has the potential to please the fans. Just don’t expect it to hold well.
On the limited front, Thoroughbreds (Focus) is a much hyped dark comedy that opened in Sundance 2017 to a huge amount of acclaim. It stars Anya Taylor-Joy and Olivia Cooke as a pair of scheming little biatches. The reviews are strong, the trailers are strong, pretty much everything about this film says PTA goldmine. As long as the theatre count is low, expect at least 6 in the game, and potentially much more. Get it in ultimate, and you might even see it break out and be worth $2 in BO.
But never underestimate the oldies. They’ve moved on from The Strangers to films like The Leisure Seeker (SPC), in which an elderly couple go on a road adventure in their old RV. Helen Mirren and Donald Sutherland scream class, and Paolo Virzi’s first English language flick has been exceeding expectations abroad so far. This could be a surprise little PTA earner, so consider it if you’ve got a $3 gap on your slate.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Black Panther - $35m
2. A Wrinkle in Time - $32m
3. Strangers 2 - $10m
4. Gringo - $8m
5. Red Sparrow - $8m
PTA: Thoroughbreds, The Leisure Seeker, Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, Foxtrot
Next week, Shryke returns to the throne (sorry dude, I think my ass grooves are going to distract you) to take a look at another attempt to make a movie-copying video game to a movie-copying movie-copying video game adaptation, Tomb Raider, as well as gay drama Love Simon, country-singer biopic I Can Only Imagine, and limited releases 7 Days in Entebbe and Back to Burgundy.
This weekend is as busy as hell, with presumably the Oscar winners expanding one last time, and having to face 4 wide releases.
With Black Panther topping the box office, it looks like Disney’s success is going to be challenged… by Disney. Welcome to the future, kids. A Wrinkle in Time (Buena Vista) is a tentpole family film based on the 60s novel about a young girl who sets off to find her planet-exploring father. There’s a strong supporting cast which includes Oprah, Reese Witherspoon, Mindy Kaling, and Chris Pine, and it’s one of, if not THE first studio blockbuster films to be directed by a female African American, Ava Duvernay.
There’s a lot going for this film. In theory. Duvernay’s opportunity and Oprah’s legions of fans can help win over the Black Panther crowd. Yet, as we’ve neared the release date the buzz has gotten significantly weaker. A lot like another Disney film, Tomorrowland, which had great trailers and a good cast but just couldn’t win over audiences. And so A Wrinkle in Time may face a similar fate, opening in the mid 30s and barely hitting 100m. It may not even beat Black Panther to the top spot. With prices ranging from $25-32 in BO and ultimate, you’re going to need it to do better than the 10 T5, 4PTA, and low 6s IMDB score that I suspect it will end up with.
The next few places are a mash-up of potential wildcards and duds. I call it…
MID-LEVEL (SEMI) MADNESS
Yes, we’ve got three films are fighting to take the prestigious third place and then disappear. But who has the chops to climb that peak. All come from independent distributors who are aiming to saturate the market, and all target a different audience. And all are in the $5-$7m range in both Ultimate and Box Office. Let’s take a look.
In the gun-steel grey corner is current favourite The Hurricane Heist (Entertainment). What should be a film about a team of storm-chaser who decide to wrap the reins around a tornado and drive it into banks to reap the rewards, is actually a disappointingly normal film about a gang who use a storm to hide the fruits of their criminal labour.
In the blood-red corner is Strangers: Prey at Night (Aviron), a sequel so delayed that most of us who saw the original are one step in the retirement home. It follows a family who are being hunted by a gang of masked men in a deserted mobile home.
In the oh-so hilariously yellow corner stands Gringo (STX), starring David Oyelowo as a mild-manner company schlub who ends up heading to Mexico to spearhead a marijuana pill, only to be abducted by some brownie boys. The impressive cast also includes Charlize Theron and Joel Edgerton.
So, who will win out? Entertainment Studios have started off strong with their bullish release strategy. However, Hurricane Heist lacks the stars (indeed its cast have all failed to make it big) and the premise isn’t as instantly attractive as shark flick 47 Metres Down. Despite the predictions, this isn’t going to be a hit. Gringo has the cast, but STX have struggled lately, and the early buzz on this film is non-existent. The cast is strong, though. But I’m actually going to go out on a limb and say Strangers 2 will be the best of the three. Not due to fans of the original (the Alzheimer’s has already kicked in), but because it’s the only horror film this month, and with Winchester failing this has the potential to please the fans. Just don’t expect it to hold well.
On the limited front, Thoroughbreds (Focus) is a much hyped dark comedy that opened in Sundance 2017 to a huge amount of acclaim. It stars Anya Taylor-Joy and Olivia Cooke as a pair of scheming little biatches. The reviews are strong, the trailers are strong, pretty much everything about this film says PTA goldmine. As long as the theatre count is low, expect at least 6 in the game, and potentially much more. Get it in ultimate, and you might even see it break out and be worth $2 in BO.
But never underestimate the oldies. They’ve moved on from The Strangers to films like The Leisure Seeker (SPC), in which an elderly couple go on a road adventure in their old RV. Helen Mirren and Donald Sutherland scream class, and Paolo Virzi’s first English language flick has been exceeding expectations abroad so far. This could be a surprise little PTA earner, so consider it if you’ve got a $3 gap on your slate.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Black Panther - $35m
2. A Wrinkle in Time - $32m
3. Strangers 2 - $10m
4. Gringo - $8m
5. Red Sparrow - $8m
PTA: Thoroughbreds, The Leisure Seeker, Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, Foxtrot
Next week, Shryke returns to the throne (sorry dude, I think my ass grooves are going to distract you) to take a look at another attempt to make a movie-copying video game to a movie-copying movie-copying video game adaptation, Tomb Raider, as well as gay drama Love Simon, country-singer biopic I Can Only Imagine, and limited releases 7 Days in Entebbe and Back to Burgundy.