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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 21st, 2018, 12:38 pm
by Walleye413
I know anything Marvel does shouldn’t surprise me anymore but – DAMN! Black Panther blew everything away. Records, audiences, and all the competition. If you don’t have this on your slates ask for a Mulligan (No, not the Carey kind.) And if you’re the lucky bastards who drafted it in the year-long draft kudos to you. It’s a game changer. Even with $240 million (4-day) there was a little money left to throw around. Peter Rabbit held up pretty well, and Fifty Shades didn’t totally fall off a cliff. Newcomers Early Man and Samson will soon be forgotten, but on the PTA front we may see a few more points scored by The Party and Loveless as there are no new movies in that category this week. What does this week hold? Uh, lots more Black Panther with what may be the second week of the century. And three movies that might have had a shot in other weeks. But this week. . .

The best contender for helping out your slates was Game Night, starring Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams. This is a clever take on a pretty well-worn idea: An R-rated comedy designed more for the adults than the kids (see The House, Bad Moms, Horrible Bosses.) When they work, they become modest little hits. When they don’t, they become the aforementioned The House (a movie you should never, ever draft in the 3rd round.) The two names at the top make me think this has potential, but the previews haven’t convinced me just yet. And besides, everyone just wants to see Black Panther. At $13 in both leagues, this is slate filler that might get you 4-5 top 5 points, and 3-4 PTA points with $40 million total. I think you can find better elsewhere.

Annihilation has Padme Amidala and the brains behind Ex Machina – plus a trippy book source – to entice you this weekend. I tried to read this one a year ago and it just didn’t draw me in – which I think is going to be the case for this movie as well. Alex Garland fans are probably going to love it – but will that be enough to justify your $9/10 hard earned dollars for game purposes? At 2 Top 5 and 1-2 PTA points plus a cap of $30 million I don’t think so. And besides, everyone just wants to see Black Panther. I’d pick up Acrimony or A Quiet Place instead.

Every Day is a too cute teen romance with a twist – the love of Rhiannon’s life is a different person every day. In the teen world where being open to any and all love is such a high value, this one will have some strong supporters. It also comes from a beloved book, one I haven’t had the chance to read yet. But for game purposes it’s coming out on 1600 screens. More than the 2000 for Annihilation, but still not enough to garner any Top 5 points, and in PTA no man’s land. So for Ultimate it’s out. In Box Office it’s not a terrible play at $5 – especially if it goes the way of The DUFF. But really, everyone just wants to see Black Panther.

There you go – a pretty boring week when all is said and done. But don’t blame the messenger. Hopefully things get more interesting next week with J. Law’s Russian accent.

Top 5
Black Panther (duh)
Game Night
Peter Rabbit
Annihilation
Jumanji (One last week – I’m calling it.)


PTA
Black Panther (duh)
The Party
Game Night
Loveless
Annihilation

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 22nd, 2018, 12:35 pm
by Shrykespeare
Celebrity birthdays:

Rihanna turned 30 on 2/20
Jeri Ryan turned 50 on 2/22
Paul Dooley turned 90 on 2/22

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 22nd, 2018, 2:35 pm
by transformers2
Nice write-up Walleye. I'm really interested in seeing how Game Night fares. R-rated comedies not named Girls Trip or The Big Sick have clearly done poorly over the past year or so, but the reviews have been shockingly strong, has been relatively well-marketed and boasts an original concept that could attract an audience.

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 23rd, 2018, 1:35 pm
by numbersix
So I take it you've little faith in Black Panther's second week, eh Walleye?

I do think annihiliation is being underestimated. Strong reviews set it aside from recent failures, and actually most sci fis with good reviews tend to really exceed expectations. $10-15 opening and a 40m cume IMHO.

Top 5
1. Black Panther - 95m
2. Game Night - 16m
3. Annihilation - 13m
4. Peter Rabbit - 12m
5. Fifty Shades 2 - $7m


PTA: Black Panther, Game Night, Loveless, The Party, Annihilation

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 23rd, 2018, 8:37 pm
by Shrykespeare
Official Theater Counts:

Game Night - 3,488
Annihilation - 2,012
Every Day - 1,625



Next week:

Red Sparrow - 2,900
Death Wish - 2,700

This surprises me. I expected RS to be much higher and DW to be much lower.

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 23rd, 2018, 9:11 pm
by Buscemi2
Fox probably learned from the disappointing numbers of Atomic Blonde. Early word on Red Sparrow hasn't been that great, either.

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 24th, 2018, 1:39 am
by Buscemi2
Cinemascores:

Every Day: B+
Game Night: B+
Annihilation: C

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 24th, 2018, 10:25 am
by W
I think Death Wish will surprise a bit. I picked it up on HSX when it still had a fall ‘17 release for $14 remembering what The Equalizer did. I don’t think it’s viewed well by the coasts, but it’ll play very well everywhere else. HSX has it at $29. I think closer to double that.

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 24th, 2018, 10:34 am
by Buscemi2
Death Wish has been tracking in the high teens but I don't think it even hits $10 million. Willis hasn't had a hit in a long time, Eli Roth (how has he not been accused of sexual harassment yet?) hasn't had a hit since Hostel, Annapurna hasn't had a hit yet, and with mass shootings being in the news every week, would anyone want to watch a film that defends vigilantism?

The Equalizer was a hit because it had a big star and a proven action director. This has neither.

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 24th, 2018, 12:58 pm
by Shrykespeare
Friday Estimates

Black Panther, $28.8M
Game Night, $5.6M
Annihilation, $3.9M
Peter Rabbit, $2.8M
Fifty Shades Freed, $2.3M
Jumanji, $1.3M
Every Day, $1.1M
The 15:17 to Paris, $1.0M



Weekend Projections

Black Panther, $101M
Game Night, $15.5M
Peter Rabbit, $12.9M
Annihilation, $10.0M
Fifty Shades Freed, $6.9M
Jumanji, $5.5M
The 15:17 to Paris, $3.8M
The Greatest Showman, $3.4M
Every Day, $3.1M
Early Man, $1.7M


Consider what Jumanji has done over the last 10 weeks ($387M). Now realize that Black Panther has passed its output in only 10 DAYS ($392M).

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 24th, 2018, 3:03 pm
by Walleye413
Wow those Black Panther numbers are stunning. Seriously incredible - kudos to Marvel for figuring out a way to keep their formula chugging along. Any bets on how big Avengers goes?

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 24th, 2018, 5:08 pm
by transformers2
I'm going to say that Infinity War does more than Age of Ultron, but a little bit less than the original (so roughly $500-550 mil)

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 25th, 2018, 1:42 pm
by Shrykespeare
Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Black Panther, $108.0M (that puts it at $400,000,422 for 10 days)
4 points - Game Night, $16.6M
3 points - Peter Rabbit, $12.5M
2 points - Annihilation, $11.0M
1 point - Fifty Shades Freed, $6.9M
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $5.6M (barely missed that final Top 5 point)
The 15:17 to Paris, $3.6M
The Greatest Showman, $3.4M
Every Day, $3.1M
Early Man, $1.7M



PTA:
5 points - Black Panther
4 points - Annihilation
3 points - Loveless
2 points - Game Night
1 point - Peter Rabbit or The Party

Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 2/23

PostPosted: February 26th, 2018, 8:18 pm
by Shrykespeare
Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Black Panther, $111.6M ($403.6M for 10 days) (10)
4 points - Game Night, $17.0M (4)
3 points - Peter Rabbit, $12.8M (11)
2 points - Annihilation, $11.1M (2)
1 point - Fifty Shades Freed, $7.1M (9)
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $5.76M
The 15:17 to Paris, $3.6M
The Greatest Showman, $3.4M
Every Day, $3.0M
Early Man, $1.8M



PTA:
5 points - Black Panther, $27,776 (10)
4 points - Annihilation, $5,503 (4)
3 points - Loveless, $5,021 (6)
2 points - Game Night, $4,875 (2)
1 point - Peter Rabbit, $3,442 (6)