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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby transformers2 » February 14th, 2018, 6:01 pm

For the 3rd time in 4 years, the box office field submitted to the dominance of Fifty Shades.

Fans bid farewell to the most expensive and beloved softcore porn trilogy of all-time by making Fifty Shades Freed the #1 movie in the country by a relatively wide margin. The franchise climax (aka the liberation of the talented Dakota Johnson from her leather-bound misery) worked up $38.6 mil in its first 3 days of release, which was only slightly off from Fifty Shades Darker $46.6 OW on the same weekend last year. With today being Valentine's Day and Black Panther set for a potential record-setting haul over the weekend, Fifty Shades will likely register a flaccid 2nd place finish.

Sony's animated/live-action adaptation of Peter Rabbit also fared well, debuting at #2 with a better-than-expected $25 mil. The James Corden-voiced bunny comedy has a pretty clear path for success the next few weeks with no serious family-friendly threats on the horizon until Disney releases A Wrinkle in Time on March 9th. If all goes well, this could hop to a $90-100 mil finish.

It was more of a somber weekend for Clint Eastwood as his latest flag-waving opus The 15:17 to Paris sputtered to an underwhelming $12.5 mil opening. Eastwood's good intentions of honoring the 3 men that thwarted a terrorist attack on a Paris-bound train in August 2015 by allowing them to play themselves in a big screen adaptation of the events backfired as the film got panned by a majority of the people that saw it and now looks destined to top out. Leave it to the pussy generation to not honor true patriots by going to see the money-grab "Merica propaganda pieces that were made in their honor. Sad!

Rounding out the top 5 was the ridiculous 2017 holdover duo of Jumanji andThe Greatest Showman. These films were able to muster $10.0 and $6.4 mil respectively in their 8th week of release. At this rate, these films probably won't run out of gas until sometime around the 4th of July.

Wide Releases:
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After taking a nice 3-month reprieve to let other Disney properties and Jumanjii rule the box office, our Marvel overlords have come back to raid our wallets yet again with Black Panther (Disney/Marvel). While it'll more than likely feature its share of genre staples, Black Panther isn't your run-of-the mill superhero film. It's set in Africa, boasts a political-based plot and is the first MCU entry to feature a predominantly black cast and director.

I don't need to tell you fine gents that you're buying yourself a one-way ticket to the bottom of the standings if you don't make room for the King of Wakanda on your slate. This film is going to be a cultural touchstone a la Wonder Woman that attracts audiences that don't typically go see superhero movies while also providing Marvel fanboys with the solo Black Panther adventure they've been clamoring for since the character made his universally-praised debut in Captain America: Civil War, which subsequently makes this a lock to be one of the 3-5 highest grossing films of 2018. The only question now is just how high its ceiling. It's OW tracking is rivaling Captain America: Civil War's debut ($176 mil), and I fully expect it to clear that milestone and possibly challenge Avengers: Age of Ultron ($191.3 mil) for the 2nd-highest debut in the superhero giant's 15-year history. I'm going to predict a 3-day of $182 mil ($195 mil 4-day), 26 Top 5 points, 14 PTA, an IMDB rating around 8 and a final gross of at least $400 mil for this BO monster in the making. Now if you excuse me, I'm going to go bang my head against a wall in shame for picking A Wrinkle in Time and Transformers: The Robots that Secretly Shaped World History over this in the FY draft.


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Specialty animation powerhouse Aardman is back in the saddle with their latest unconventional animated film Early Man (Lionsgate). This Claymation feature tells the charming story of a group of Stone Age cavemen that are suddenly uprooted from their home by a group of Bronze Age elites. In order to save his family's valley from being destroyed by the greedy Bronze Age leader (voiced by Loki himself) as well as avoiding a life sentence in the mining industry, a young caveman (voiced by Eddie Redmayne) must assemble a ragtag soccer team to defeat his pesky upper-class nemesis' minions. I'm sure a British film with an overtly political message like this will be warmly received in the current overwhelmingly-unified utopia otherwise known as the United States of America.

While Early Man is receiving the warm critical reception (83% RT, 66 Metascore) that you'd expect from an Aardman production, it's box office prospects aren't great. Aardman makes dry, sophisticated animated films that don't really resonate in a country that made The Boss Baby a smash hit. Unless there's a surplus of people that decide they want to shield their little ones from the scandalous allergy jokes of Peter Rabbit, I don't see Early Man having much success. It should be able to nap a couple Top 5 points this weekend in a relatively thin field, but it likely won't top $25 mil or earn any additional Top 5/PTA during its run, which isn't enough to justify its modest ($9 BO/$8 ULT) price tag in either format. If you're looking for a value wide release pick to round out your slate, I think Death Wish, A Quiet Place and Acrimony have more upside for around the same amount of money.


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Jesus movie season is getting off to an early start this year with Samson (Pure Flix) starring the incomparable Rutger Hauer and Billy Motherfuckin' Zane. This reminds me of 2016's PG-13 biblical actioner Risen, except with a smaller distributor and more fierce competition around it. In other words, it's too violent and not spiritual enough to bring a ton of church groups, which makes it a prime candidate to make little-to-no impact at the box office. I'm expecting an OW between $3 and $4 mil, 0 Top 5 or PTA points, an IMDb score in the low 6's and a final gross around $11 mil. Even at the low price tag of $5 in FEB-APR leagues, Samson isn't worth a spot on your blessed slate.


Limited Releases:
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2 weeks after the release of Chile's A Fantastic Woman, Russia's Loveless (Sony Classics) becomes the latest of this year's Best Foreign Language Film Oscar nominees to hit theaters stateside. This acclaimed tragedy from the director of 2016 Oscar nominee Leviathan centers around an estranged couple (Maryana Spivek, Alexesy Rovin) are brought back together when their only son (Matvey Novikov) goes missing. While it's unlikely to emerge as a long-term PTA juggernaut, Loveless' Oscar nom and Grand Jury Prize win at last year's Cannes Film Festival should generate a solid amount of business from foreign film enthusiasts in the major cities. There's a few specialty picks coming out in March (Lean on Pete, Thoroughbreds,Isle of Dogs) that I have more faith in, but at $4, Loveless should still end up being a good investment that nets you at least 5-6 PTA points as well as an excellent IMDb score (currently 7.8 with over 10,000 votes).


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Despite having a cast full of recognizable faces (Jon Hamm, Patton Oswalt, Nick Offerman, Catherine Keener, Ellen Burstyn), Nostalgia (Bleecker Street) seems like the odd movie out in this week's batch of limited releases. The early reviews are pretty poor (20% on RT) and it has the misfortunate of being released during the same weekend as a pair of films that have much more buzz/arthouse clout behind them. Nostalgia might be able to muster 1-2 PTA points this weekend given the lack of strong holdovers currently on the marketplace before it dies a quick brutal death at the hands of March's onslaught of potential PTA studs. This gets a hard pass from me.


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If you're a fan of high-society yucks, The Party (Roadside Attractions) should tickle your fancy. This dark comedy from Sally Potter(Orlando, that insufferable iambic pentameter movie with Joan Allen and Dr. Alan Grant) tells the story of a party celebrating a British politician's (Kristen Scott Thomas) promotion that goes awry when the other guest's start making stunning personal revelations. Sounds like a real crackerjack time...

My personal disdain for these elitist comedies aside,The Party should do relatively well. Potter is a respected filmmaker and this ensemble of distinguished character actors (Scott Thomas, Timothy Spall, Patricia Clarkson, Cillian Murphy, Emily Mortimier) will likely pique the interest of its target audience. I expect The Party to secure 3-4 PTA points this weekend and another 1-4 in the coming weeks depending on its rate of expansion. This is an intriguing limited release dice roll to make if you have a spare $4 kicking around in ULT.


Weekend Projections:
1.Black Panther $182 mil ($195 mil 4-day)
2.Peter Rabbit $16 mil ($20 mil 4-day)
3.Fifty Shades Freed $15 mil ($19 mil 4-day)
4.Early Man $7 mil ($10 mil 4-day)
5.The 15:17 to Paris $5 mil ($7 mil 4-day)

PTA: Black Panther, Loveless, The Party, Peter Rabbit, Nostalgia

Tune in next week when Walleye previews Alex Garland's latest sci-fi mind-bender Annihilation, body-switch teen romance Every Day and the Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams-led comedy romp Game Night.
Last edited by transformers2 on February 15th, 2018, 12:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby Shrykespeare » February 14th, 2018, 8:43 pm

Celebrity Milestone Birthdays:

Josh Brolin turned 50 on 2/12 (still an underrated actor, I think)
Teller turned 70 on 2/14 (and still not talkin')
Ice-T turns 60 on 2/16 (how many years has he been on L&O:SVU? I've lost count)
Molly Ringwald turns 50 on 2/18 (fuck I feel old now)
Happy 60th birthday Tim Burton! (8/25/18)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby Buscemi2 » February 14th, 2018, 8:53 pm

Orlando had Tilda Swinton and Billy Zane, not Joan Allen and Sam Neill. The movie you're referring to Yes.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby Ron Burgundy » February 14th, 2018, 10:09 pm

Great write up Tranny. I think your logic for Black Panther is right, though im less than shocked to not see it coming- living out in the middle of nowhere...

Im still stubborn-minded and going to say Black Panther wont hit 150M for the weekend.

Also i echo your thoughts on Early Man, it wont get the love it deserves surely. However, i am looking forward to twice as much as Aardman's last effort; Pirates!
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby transformers2 » February 14th, 2018, 10:11 pm

Buscemi2 wrote:Orlando had Tilda Swinton and Billy Zane, not Joan Allen and Sam Neill. The movie you're referring to Yes.

I know. Should've made it clearer that they were 2 seperate movies.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » February 14th, 2018, 11:04 pm

transformers2 wrote:Jesus movie season


My favorite time of year tbh
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby Buscemi2 » February 14th, 2018, 11:39 pm

Why does Pure Flix still exist?
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby transformers2 » February 15th, 2018, 12:13 am

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:
transformers2 wrote:Jesus movie season


My favorite time of year tbh

Agreed. Some people get excited for the mild weather of spring after a long winter. I get jazzed up for seeing the Good Lord on the Big Screen where he belongs
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby numbersix » February 15th, 2018, 4:26 am

Spot on analysis, Tranny.

190m over 4 days seems like a stretch, but no one saw Deadpool hitting the potty-mouthed high that it did. Still, in the context of this game it's a must.

I've a lot fo faith in Loveless. It has been doing a great job getting in the media. Maybe it's the Russian connection. You can thank Trump for those PTA points.

1.Black Panther $150 mil ($165 mil 4-day)
2.Peter Rabbit $14 mil ($17 mil 4-day)
3.Fifty Shades Freed $15 mil ($19 mil 4-day)
4.The 15:17 to Paris $6 mil ($7.5 mil 4-day)
5.Early Man $5 mil ($7 mil 4-day)


PTA: Black Panther, Loveless, The Party, Peter Rabbit, Nostalgia
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby Buscemi2 » February 17th, 2018, 3:56 am

Cinemascores:

Black Panther: A+ (Is this the first Marvel film since The Avengers to get an A+?)
Early Man: B (I guess families like prehistory movies if they've got Nicolas Cage in them)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby Shrykespeare » February 17th, 2018, 12:17 pm

Friday Estimates

Fifty Shades Freed, $5.7M
Peter Rabbit, $4.1M
The 15:17 to Paris, $2.1M
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $1.9M
The Greatest Showman, $1.3M
Early Man, $850K

Oh, and:

Black Panther, $75.8M
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby Shrykespeare » February 17th, 2018, 1:12 pm

Weekend Projections

Black Panther, $209M
Peter Rabbit, $22M
Fifty Shades Freed, $19.1M
Jumanji, $10.5M
15:17 to Paris, $9.5M
Greatest Showman, $7M
Early Man, $4M
Maze Runner, $3.2M
Winchester, $2.5M
The Post, $2.4M
Samson, $2.2M



PTA:

Black Panther, $51K
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby Shrykespeare » February 18th, 2018, 12:59 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Black Panther, $192.0M
4 points - Peter Rabbit, $17.2M
3 points - Fifty Shades Freed, $16.9M
2 points - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $7.9M
1 point - The 15:17 to Paris, $7.7M
The Greatest Showman, $5.1M
Early Man, $3.1M
Maze Runner: The Death Cure, $2.5M
Winchester, $2.2M
Samson, $2.0M



PTA:
5 points - Black Panther, $47K
4 points - The Party, $12K
3 points - Loveless, $10K
2 points - Nostalgia, $7K
1 point - Peter Rabbit, $4.6K



BP's OW is the fifth highest in history, following Episode VII, Episode VIII, Jurassic World and the first Avengers movie. It barely beat out Age of Ultron if the numbers stick.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby Shrykespeare » February 19th, 2018, 6:29 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Black Panther, $201.8M (5)
4 points - Peter Rabbit, $17.6M (8)
3 points - Fifty Shades Freed, $17.3M (8)
2 points - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $7.9M (36)
1 point - The 15:17 to Paris, $7.6M (4)
The Greatest Showman, $5.1M
Early Man, $3.2M
Maze Runner: The Death Cure, $2.6M
Winchester, $2.2M
Samson, $1.9M



PTA:
5 points - Black Panther, $50,198 (5)
4 points - The Party, $12,111 (4)
3 points - Loveless, $10,074 (3)
2 points - Nostalgia, $5,318 (2)
1 point - Peter Rabbit, $4,725 (5)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/16

Postby Walleye413 » February 19th, 2018, 7:49 pm

My goodness. Okay, here's my column for this week:

Black Panther continues to crush everything in its path.
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