Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25
Posted: January 23rd, 2018, 6:24 pm
Is Jumanjii mania ever going to end?
Welcome to the Jungle continued its eyebrow-raising run by topping the box office for a 3rd straight weekend with a very solid $19.5 haul (30% drop). Jake Kasdan's unlikely smash-hit sequel to the Robin Williams-led 1995 family film has grossed $316.4 mil after 33 days of release and should end up making at least $350 mil by the time it exits U.S theaters. Truly remarkable stuff.
Newcomers 12 Strong and Den of Thieves ended up in a tight race for the #2 spot, which the (allegedly) fact-based war drama ended up narrowly winning with a respectable $15.8 mil 3-day. Despite being slightly edged out by 12 Strong, Den of Thieves still managed to steal the headlines with its surprising $15.2 mil debut, which was over twice as high as most of the industry's tracking numbers. This unexpected success story just goes to show that you can't ever underestimate the drawing power of King Leonidas, Ice Cube's Son and a rapper who looks like a young Nolan Ryan whenever he steps on the pitcher's mound.
Solitary Release:
As recently as mid-November, there was 3 other films scheduled for release on January 26th. Thankfully for their bottom lines, the studios wised up and gave Maze Runner: The Death Cure (Fox) the uncontested weekend this box office juggernaut deserves.
For the large chunk of people that have forgotten what this series is about (or that it exists at all) in the nearly 2 and a half year since The Scorch Trials was released, I'll do my best to provide a half-assed refresher course. In a dystopian future, a zombie-like virus known as "The Flare" is infecting the world's population at a rapid rate. A group of three teens (Dylan O' Brien, Thomas Brodie-Sangster, Dexter Darden) are among the small amount of the population that is immune to The Flare and as a result of their unique condition, are being relentlessly pursued by a nefarious government agency headed by Patricia Clarkson and Littlefinger from Game of Thrones) that wants to use their blood to "cure" the infected. With the threat of being killed by "the man" growing stronger by the day, the trio of "Immunes" and their older adult counterparts (Giancarlo Esposito, Barry Pepper, Rose Salazar) are forced to team up with an anarchistic rebel leader (Walton Goggins) to overthrow the tyrannical governing body that wants to take their precious resources and attempt to live the rest of their days in an apocalyptic society in something that kinda sorta resembles peace.
As I alluded to earlier, The Death Cure has the unfortunate distinction of being a YA sequel that's arriving about 2 years too late. While the 11-month delay in release was unavoidable due to O'Brien suffering a serious on-set injury in the 1st week of principal photography that halted production for a little over a year, it gives the final chapter of this franchise that was well behind The Hunger Games and Divergent in terms of popularity at its peak very longs odds of breaking out. Even though I'm pessimistic about its chances of putting up blockbuster numbers, The Death Cure should be able to take advantage of a lack of competition over the next 2 weekends and gross a decent amount more than it would've in a more competitive marketplace. I'm going to predict a $21 mil opening, 10 Top 5 Points, 7 PTA, an IMDb score in the mid-to-high 6's and a final BO tally of $55-65 mil before it gets swallowed up by the cluster of high-upside releases in mid-February. At a modest $15 in Jan-Mar BO and ULT leagues, The Death Cure is a pretty solid option, especially if you don't want to take a chance on The 15:17 to Paris, Game Night or Red Sparrow in the later stages of this round.
I'd be remiss if I went throughout this epic piece without mentioning this weekend's wide expansion of Hostiles. While I commend Entertainment Studios for waiting until the holiday marketplace died down to expand this Christian Bale and Rosamund Pike-led western into 3,000+ theaters, the merely decent reviews/WOM, lack of awards nominations and mediocre performance in limited release leads me to believe that this won't be another 47 Meters Down-esque success story for this ambitious upstart distributor. I'm going to predict an opening of around $4 mil, which would place it outside of the top 5. Better luck next time Byron Allen.
Weekend Projections:
1.Maze Runner: The Death Cure $21 mil
2.Jumanjii $13 mil
3.12 Strong $10 mil
4.The Post $7.5 mil
5.Den of Thieves $7 mil
PTA: Maze Runner,12 Strong, Jumanjii, The Post, Den of Thieves
Tune in next week when the mighty Boosh has the pleasure of breaking down another jam-packed slate of films headlined by lone wide release Winchester, in which Helen Mirren makes history by being the first Dame to headline a disposable winter horror movie and A Fantastic Woman, which just earned an Oscar nom for Best Foreign Language Film.
Welcome to the Jungle continued its eyebrow-raising run by topping the box office for a 3rd straight weekend with a very solid $19.5 haul (30% drop). Jake Kasdan's unlikely smash-hit sequel to the Robin Williams-led 1995 family film has grossed $316.4 mil after 33 days of release and should end up making at least $350 mil by the time it exits U.S theaters. Truly remarkable stuff.
Newcomers 12 Strong and Den of Thieves ended up in a tight race for the #2 spot, which the (allegedly) fact-based war drama ended up narrowly winning with a respectable $15.8 mil 3-day. Despite being slightly edged out by 12 Strong, Den of Thieves still managed to steal the headlines with its surprising $15.2 mil debut, which was over twice as high as most of the industry's tracking numbers. This unexpected success story just goes to show that you can't ever underestimate the drawing power of King Leonidas, Ice Cube's Son and a rapper who looks like a young Nolan Ryan whenever he steps on the pitcher's mound.
Solitary Release:
As recently as mid-November, there was 3 other films scheduled for release on January 26th. Thankfully for their bottom lines, the studios wised up and gave Maze Runner: The Death Cure (Fox) the uncontested weekend this box office juggernaut deserves.
For the large chunk of people that have forgotten what this series is about (or that it exists at all) in the nearly 2 and a half year since The Scorch Trials was released, I'll do my best to provide a half-assed refresher course. In a dystopian future, a zombie-like virus known as "The Flare" is infecting the world's population at a rapid rate. A group of three teens (Dylan O' Brien, Thomas Brodie-Sangster, Dexter Darden) are among the small amount of the population that is immune to The Flare and as a result of their unique condition, are being relentlessly pursued by a nefarious government agency headed by Patricia Clarkson and Littlefinger from Game of Thrones) that wants to use their blood to "cure" the infected. With the threat of being killed by "the man" growing stronger by the day, the trio of "Immunes" and their older adult counterparts (Giancarlo Esposito, Barry Pepper, Rose Salazar) are forced to team up with an anarchistic rebel leader (Walton Goggins) to overthrow the tyrannical governing body that wants to take their precious resources and attempt to live the rest of their days in an apocalyptic society in something that kinda sorta resembles peace.
As I alluded to earlier, The Death Cure has the unfortunate distinction of being a YA sequel that's arriving about 2 years too late. While the 11-month delay in release was unavoidable due to O'Brien suffering a serious on-set injury in the 1st week of principal photography that halted production for a little over a year, it gives the final chapter of this franchise that was well behind The Hunger Games and Divergent in terms of popularity at its peak very longs odds of breaking out. Even though I'm pessimistic about its chances of putting up blockbuster numbers, The Death Cure should be able to take advantage of a lack of competition over the next 2 weekends and gross a decent amount more than it would've in a more competitive marketplace. I'm going to predict a $21 mil opening, 10 Top 5 Points, 7 PTA, an IMDb score in the mid-to-high 6's and a final BO tally of $55-65 mil before it gets swallowed up by the cluster of high-upside releases in mid-February. At a modest $15 in Jan-Mar BO and ULT leagues, The Death Cure is a pretty solid option, especially if you don't want to take a chance on The 15:17 to Paris, Game Night or Red Sparrow in the later stages of this round.
I'd be remiss if I went throughout this epic piece without mentioning this weekend's wide expansion of Hostiles. While I commend Entertainment Studios for waiting until the holiday marketplace died down to expand this Christian Bale and Rosamund Pike-led western into 3,000+ theaters, the merely decent reviews/WOM, lack of awards nominations and mediocre performance in limited release leads me to believe that this won't be another 47 Meters Down-esque success story for this ambitious upstart distributor. I'm going to predict an opening of around $4 mil, which would place it outside of the top 5. Better luck next time Byron Allen.
Weekend Projections:
1.Maze Runner: The Death Cure $21 mil
2.Jumanjii $13 mil
3.12 Strong $10 mil
4.The Post $7.5 mil
5.Den of Thieves $7 mil
PTA: Maze Runner,12 Strong, Jumanjii, The Post, Den of Thieves
Tune in next week when the mighty Boosh has the pleasure of breaking down another jam-packed slate of films headlined by lone wide release Winchester, in which Helen Mirren makes history by being the first Dame to headline a disposable winter horror movie and A Fantastic Woman, which just earned an Oscar nom for Best Foreign Language Film.