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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby transformers2 » January 23rd, 2018, 6:24 pm

Is Jumanjii mania ever going to end?

Welcome to the Jungle continued its eyebrow-raising run by topping the box office for a 3rd straight weekend with a very solid $19.5 haul (30% drop). Jake Kasdan's unlikely smash-hit sequel to the Robin Williams-led 1995 family film has grossed $316.4 mil after 33 days of release and should end up making at least $350 mil by the time it exits U.S theaters. Truly remarkable stuff.

Newcomers 12 Strong and Den of Thieves ended up in a tight race for the #2 spot, which the (allegedly) fact-based war drama ended up narrowly winning with a respectable $15.8 mil 3-day. Despite being slightly edged out by 12 Strong, Den of Thieves still managed to steal the headlines with its surprising $15.2 mil debut, which was over twice as high as most of the industry's tracking numbers. This unexpected success story just goes to show that you can't ever underestimate the drawing power of King Leonidas, Ice Cube's Son and a rapper who looks like a young Nolan Ryan whenever he steps on the pitcher's mound.

Solitary Release:
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As recently as mid-November, there was 3 other films scheduled for release on January 26th. Thankfully for their bottom lines, the studios wised up and gave Maze Runner: The Death Cure (Fox) the uncontested weekend this box office juggernaut deserves.

For the large chunk of people that have forgotten what this series is about (or that it exists at all) in the nearly 2 and a half year since The Scorch Trials was released, I'll do my best to provide a half-assed refresher course. In a dystopian future, a zombie-like virus known as "The Flare" is infecting the world's population at a rapid rate. A group of three teens (Dylan O' Brien, Thomas Brodie-Sangster, Dexter Darden) are among the small amount of the population that is immune to The Flare and as a result of their unique condition, are being relentlessly pursued by a nefarious government agency headed by Patricia Clarkson and Littlefinger from Game of Thrones) that wants to use their blood to "cure" the infected. With the threat of being killed by "the man" growing stronger by the day, the trio of "Immunes" and their older adult counterparts (Giancarlo Esposito, Barry Pepper, Rose Salazar) are forced to team up with an anarchistic rebel leader (Walton Goggins) to overthrow the tyrannical governing body that wants to take their precious resources and attempt to live the rest of their days in an apocalyptic society in something that kinda sorta resembles peace.

As I alluded to earlier, The Death Cure has the unfortunate distinction of being a YA sequel that's arriving about 2 years too late. While the 11-month delay in release was unavoidable due to O'Brien suffering a serious on-set injury in the 1st week of principal photography that halted production for a little over a year, it gives the final chapter of this franchise that was well behind The Hunger Games and Divergent in terms of popularity at its peak very longs odds of breaking out. Even though I'm pessimistic about its chances of putting up blockbuster numbers, The Death Cure should be able to take advantage of a lack of competition over the next 2 weekends and gross a decent amount more than it would've in a more competitive marketplace. I'm going to predict a $21 mil opening, 10 Top 5 Points, 7 PTA, an IMDb score in the mid-to-high 6's and a final BO tally of $55-65 mil before it gets swallowed up by the cluster of high-upside releases in mid-February. At a modest $15 in Jan-Mar BO and ULT leagues, The Death Cure is a pretty solid option, especially if you don't want to take a chance on The 15:17 to Paris, Game Night or Red Sparrow in the later stages of this round.


I'd be remiss if I went throughout this epic piece without mentioning this weekend's wide expansion of Hostiles. While I commend Entertainment Studios for waiting until the holiday marketplace died down to expand this Christian Bale and Rosamund Pike-led western into 3,000+ theaters, the merely decent reviews/WOM, lack of awards nominations and mediocre performance in limited release leads me to believe that this won't be another 47 Meters Down-esque success story for this ambitious upstart distributor. I'm going to predict an opening of around $4 mil, which would place it outside of the top 5. Better luck next time Byron Allen.

Weekend Projections:
1.Maze Runner: The Death Cure $21 mil
2.Jumanjii $13 mil
3.12 Strong $10 mil
4.The Post $7.5 mil
5.Den of Thieves $7 mil

PTA: Maze Runner,12 Strong, Jumanjii, The Post, Den of Thieves

Tune in next week when the mighty Boosh has the pleasure of breaking down another jam-packed slate of films headlined by lone wide release Winchester, in which Helen Mirren makes history by being the first Dame to headline a disposable winter horror movie and A Fantastic Woman, which just earned an Oscar nom for Best Foreign Language Film.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby Buscemi2 » January 23rd, 2018, 6:31 pm

I'm going to say Hostiles does a bit better. The limited run has done nicely and though it didn't do anything with the Oscar voters (reviews were mixed), I think it's got $6 million in the tank this week.

Byron Allen really doesn't care if it flops. The guy's bank account is a bottomless pit.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby Shrykespeare » January 23rd, 2018, 8:12 pm

Celebrity birthdays this week:

Kristen Schaal turns 40 on 1/24 (Great on Bob's Burgers)
Ellen DeGeneres turns 60 on 1/26 (Still swimming!)
Ariel Winter turns 20 on 1/28 (never seen Modern Family)
Happy 40th birthday James Franco! (4/19/18)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby numbersix » January 24th, 2018, 4:40 am

So it looks like Jumanji 2 would have topped the Was it Worth It analysis. What a run, and it's still going to pick up PTA and T5 points this weeked and next. Greatest Showman is holding insanely well too.

I'd pick the 15:17 to Paris above it, but I agree that Maze Runner is a good Ultimate pick, and by default will rake in T5 and PTA points.

Will be interesting to see if the Oscar noms will affect the numbers of the nominated, particularly those who look like they're winding down (3 Billoards and Lady Bird in particular).

1.Maze Runner: The Death Cure $20 mil
2.Jumanjii 2 $14 mil
3. Greatest Showman $8m
4.The Post $7.5 mil
5.12 Strong $7 mil
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby Buscemi2 » January 24th, 2018, 6:07 am

Despite being A24's highest grossing film, Lady Bird seems to have been a disappointment. It's as if its hype from critics and awards have been noisier than audience interest as it's never had excellent weekend results since expanding wide (like a reverse Greatest Showman).

Three Billboards is in a similar boat. The marketing promoted one film and we got another instead. In addition, the Golden Globes wins were rather criticized.

On the other hand, I expect a big boost for The Shape of Water. Since it finally hit the magic $30 million mark for del Toro films, it's going to be smooth sailing until the Oscars. 13 nominations help, too.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby numbersix » January 24th, 2018, 6:27 am

Buscemi2 wrote:Despite being A24's highest grossing film, Lady Bird seems to have been a disappointment. It's as if its hype from critics and awards have been noisier than audience interest as it's never had excellent weekend results since expanding wide (like a reverse Greatest Showman).


You literally contradicted yourself in the same sentence! ;)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby Buscemi2 » January 24th, 2018, 6:51 am

Image

I'm trying to figure where I did that exactly.

Anyway, critics have loved Lady Bird and it's won awards. But despite its $40 million gross (far surpassing Moonlight), it seems like a film that should be making more money based on all the buzz (some people actually have Gerwig winning Best Director solely on Natalie Portman's Golden Globes comments*). On the other hand, you have The Greatest Showman making millions despite negative reviews and a poor showing in the awards.

But maybe I just got burned on the multiple weekends I played it in Fantasy Movie League only to get disappointing results.

* - But remember when Michael Keaton was supposed to win an Oscar based on his Golden Globes speech a few years back? I'm not buying that prediction. It's going to take something monumental for del Toro to lose Best Director.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » January 25th, 2018, 3:07 am

It'd be a crime if Gerwig won Best Director, since Ladybird is extremely plainly directed. She'd just be getting it because she's a woman.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » January 25th, 2018, 3:08 am

transformers2 wrote:you can't ever underestimate the drawing power of King Leonidas, Ice Cube's Son and a rapper who looks like a young Nolan Ryan whenever he steps on the pitcher's mound.


Never forget.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby numbersix » January 25th, 2018, 4:23 am

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:It'd be a crime if Gerwig won Best Director, since Ladybird is extremely plainly directed. She'd just be getting it because she's a woman.


1000% disagree. Lady Bird is the kind of film that could have been standard and dull, but it was pitch perfect throughout. Beautiful performances, and perfect balance of tone. It takes some excellent direction to make a film like this so strong. It's way better handled than the only other two I've seen, Get Out and Dunkirk.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby Buscemi2 » January 25th, 2018, 4:37 am

Lady Bird is this decade's Juno. You have an annoying character that represents the author's ego more than its age group, playing more to what the media believes how young people act (I bet Gerwig and Lena Dunham are very good friends), in a film risen by a large awards campaign. It's going to be forgotten in a couple of years like many of the earlier A24 titles have (does anyone remember Spring Breakers?).

Detroit is a better film from a female director and easily 2017's most intense film but was essentially forgotten after opening weekend. And though it got dumped onto streaming, Prevenge deserves some notice.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby Shrykespeare » January 26th, 2018, 8:45 am

Theater counts:

Maze Runner: The Death Cure - 3,787
Hostiles - 2,815



Next week:

Winchester - 2,300
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby Buscemi2 » January 27th, 2018, 1:21 am

Cinemascores:

Maze Runner: B+ (first was an A-, second was a B+)
Hostiles: B
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby Shrykespeare » January 27th, 2018, 7:11 pm

Friday estimates

Maze Runner: Death Cure, $8.4M
Jumanji, $3.8M
Hostiles, $3.4M
Greatest Showman, $2.5M
The Post, $2.4M
Den of Thieves, $2.3M
12 Strong, $2.3M
Shape of Water, $1.6M
Paddington 2, $1.2M



Weekend Projections

Maze Runner: Death Cure, $22M
Jumanji, $15.5M
Hostiles, $10.5M
Greatest Showman, $9.3M
12 Strong, $8.9M
Den of Theives, $8.8M
The Post, $8.6M
Paddington 2, $6.2M
Shape of Water, $5.5M
Star Wars, $4.1M
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/25

Postby Shrykespeare » January 28th, 2018, 1:10 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Maze Runner: The Death Cure, $23.5M
4 points - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $16.4M
3 points - Hostiles, $10.2M
2 points - The Greatest Showman, $9.5M
1 point - The Post, $8.8M
12 Strong, $8.6M
Den of Thieves, $8.4M
The Shape of Water, $5.7M
Paddington 2, $5.6M
Padmaavat, $4.3M
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, $4.2M
Three Billboards, $3.6M
The Commuter, $3.4M


PTA:
5 points - Maze Runner: The Death Cure
4 points - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
3 points - Hostiles
2 points - The Greatest Showman
1 point - Den of Thieves
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