SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/19
Posted: January 17th, 2018, 4:10 pm
I’m going to sound like a Fox News reporter now, but MLK was a failure. Well, the holiday weekend that is, with all three openers expected to deliver decent numbers, but all falling well below expectations. The only surprise was audiences still going for Liam Neeson’s action shtick (seriously, the dude is 65 now – he’s barely able to find his reading glasses, let alone find the men who took his daughter), with The Commuter making $16m over the 4-day weekend. Spielberg’s The Post also performed decently, but the real winner was 90s nostalgia, with Jumanji: The Lost World holding strong. Retro?!? Anyone who thinks the 90s are old deserves a good kicking in their under-developed nether-regions.
Best of the bad bunch this weekend is 12 Strong (Warner Bros), a war movie set in Afghanistan, following a team of US invaders… I mean soldiers as they help bring down the local oil companies… I mean Taliban. The pic stars Chris “Thor” Helmsworth, Michael “Don’t Make Me Smile” Shannon, and Michael “Praise Xenu” Pena. No reviews yet, which isn’t a good sign, and films set in the modern Middle East are a hard sell. Still, this has the best chances of performing this week, and it could open in the double digits, netting you 5-7 T5 points (mostly due to lack of competition next week), 2-3 PTA points, a tolerable IMDB score, and maybe $30m cume. Bad for BO, but not a bad filler pick in ultimate.
Den of Thieves (STX) is some sort of bank heist movie. It features Gerard Butler and 50 Cent. Seriously. This is the kind of movie that usually is picked up by Lionsgate’s VOD platform, where it lives a modest life being occasionally watched by bored teens who can’t score any decent weed and gotta do something to pass the time. STX have made a major mistake thinking this should go wide, and expect it to bomb accordingly. Not even the charming O’Shea Jackson Jnr can help this one. Expect a sub $5m opening, which aint’ gonna score you dick. It’s not worth the $7 in ultimate or BO.
And if you thought that was bad, wait for Forever My Girl (Roadside Attractions), a country-music romance featuring a cast too young for me to ogle at. The music angle may attract interest from the bible belt of the states, but with Roadside suffering despite Manchester by the Sea, it’s unlikely they can attract enough to make this stick. Opening in less than 1000 theatres, a sub $3m opening is in store, and you’ll need it to hit around $20m to be worth it in BO (where it’s $4). Which it won’t. Ever.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Jumanji 2 - $17m
2. 12 Strong - $13m
3. The Post - $10m
4. The Great Showman - $8m
5. The Commuter - $6m
PTA: Phantom Thread, Jumanji, 12 Strong, The Post, Hostiles
Next week sees even slimmer pickins, as Tranny looks at the final instalment of the death throes of YA adaptations, Maze Runner: The death Cure, and possibly the limited release Arctic Justice.
Best of the bad bunch this weekend is 12 Strong (Warner Bros), a war movie set in Afghanistan, following a team of US invaders… I mean soldiers as they help bring down the local oil companies… I mean Taliban. The pic stars Chris “Thor” Helmsworth, Michael “Don’t Make Me Smile” Shannon, and Michael “Praise Xenu” Pena. No reviews yet, which isn’t a good sign, and films set in the modern Middle East are a hard sell. Still, this has the best chances of performing this week, and it could open in the double digits, netting you 5-7 T5 points (mostly due to lack of competition next week), 2-3 PTA points, a tolerable IMDB score, and maybe $30m cume. Bad for BO, but not a bad filler pick in ultimate.
Den of Thieves (STX) is some sort of bank heist movie. It features Gerard Butler and 50 Cent. Seriously. This is the kind of movie that usually is picked up by Lionsgate’s VOD platform, where it lives a modest life being occasionally watched by bored teens who can’t score any decent weed and gotta do something to pass the time. STX have made a major mistake thinking this should go wide, and expect it to bomb accordingly. Not even the charming O’Shea Jackson Jnr can help this one. Expect a sub $5m opening, which aint’ gonna score you dick. It’s not worth the $7 in ultimate or BO.
And if you thought that was bad, wait for Forever My Girl (Roadside Attractions), a country-music romance featuring a cast too young for me to ogle at. The music angle may attract interest from the bible belt of the states, but with Roadside suffering despite Manchester by the Sea, it’s unlikely they can attract enough to make this stick. Opening in less than 1000 theatres, a sub $3m opening is in store, and you’ll need it to hit around $20m to be worth it in BO (where it’s $4). Which it won’t. Ever.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Jumanji 2 - $17m
2. 12 Strong - $13m
3. The Post - $10m
4. The Great Showman - $8m
5. The Commuter - $6m
PTA: Phantom Thread, Jumanji, 12 Strong, The Post, Hostiles
Next week sees even slimmer pickins, as Tranny looks at the final instalment of the death throes of YA adaptations, Maze Runner: The death Cure, and possibly the limited release Arctic Justice.
