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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/19

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/19

Postby numbersix » January 17th, 2018, 4:10 pm

I’m going to sound like a Fox News reporter now, but MLK was a failure. Well, the holiday weekend that is, with all three openers expected to deliver decent numbers, but all falling well below expectations. The only surprise was audiences still going for Liam Neeson’s action shtick (seriously, the dude is 65 now – he’s barely able to find his reading glasses, let alone find the men who took his daughter), with The Commuter making $16m over the 4-day weekend. Spielberg’s The Post also performed decently, but the real winner was 90s nostalgia, with Jumanji: The Lost World holding strong. Retro?!? Anyone who thinks the 90s are old deserves a good kicking in their under-developed nether-regions.




Best of the bad bunch this weekend is 12 Strong (Warner Bros), a war movie set in Afghanistan, following a team of US invaders… I mean soldiers as they help bring down the local oil companies… I mean Taliban. The pic stars Chris “Thor” Helmsworth, Michael “Don’t Make Me Smile” Shannon, and Michael “Praise Xenu” Pena. No reviews yet, which isn’t a good sign, and films set in the modern Middle East are a hard sell. Still, this has the best chances of performing this week, and it could open in the double digits, netting you 5-7 T5 points (mostly due to lack of competition next week), 2-3 PTA points, a tolerable IMDB score, and maybe $30m cume. Bad for BO, but not a bad filler pick in ultimate.




Den of Thieves (STX) is some sort of bank heist movie. It features Gerard Butler and 50 Cent. Seriously. This is the kind of movie that usually is picked up by Lionsgate’s VOD platform, where it lives a modest life being occasionally watched by bored teens who can’t score any decent weed and gotta do something to pass the time. STX have made a major mistake thinking this should go wide, and expect it to bomb accordingly. Not even the charming O’Shea Jackson Jnr can help this one. Expect a sub $5m opening, which aint’ gonna score you dick. It’s not worth the $7 in ultimate or BO.




And if you thought that was bad, wait for Forever My Girl (Roadside Attractions), a country-music romance featuring a cast too young for me to ogle at. The music angle may attract interest from the bible belt of the states, but with Roadside suffering despite Manchester by the Sea, it’s unlikely they can attract enough to make this stick. Opening in less than 1000 theatres, a sub $3m opening is in store, and you’ll need it to hit around $20m to be worth it in BO (where it’s $4). Which it won’t. Ever.


My predictions for the weekend
1. Jumanji 2 - $17m
2. 12 Strong - $13m
3. The Post - $10m
4. The Great Showman - $8m
5. The Commuter - $6m

PTA: Phantom Thread, Jumanji, 12 Strong, The Post, Hostiles

Next week sees even slimmer pickins, as Tranny looks at the final instalment of the death throes of YA adaptations, Maze Runner: The death Cure, and possibly the limited release Arctic Justice.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby Buscemi2 » January 17th, 2018, 4:18 pm

Arctic Justice is now TBA.

If you thought Den of Thieves was going to be a flop before, it's really going to do badly when you realize that it runs 140 minutes. Long movies make money (often) but this feels like something that should be 90 minutes.

And Forever My Girl looks like something that should be on Lifetime or Netflix's attempts to compete with Lifetime, not something to play in 600 theatres. The trailers make Peter Rabbit look good.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby Shrykespeare » January 18th, 2018, 11:38 am

And hey hey, I have BOTH movies on my Draft League slate. Yay. Looks like another last-place finish for me. Yay.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby Ron Burgundy » January 18th, 2018, 7:22 pm

Heh, good one six, i like the bits with oil companies, michael dont me make smile and stoners who get bored. All true ofc!

And yeah this w/e is looking like a classic Bankrupts leagues gold mine.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby Buscemi2 » January 18th, 2018, 8:00 pm

Surprisingly, Den of Thieves is apparently better than 12 Strong: Not a Christian Pop Group (edit: Metacritic's the same now at a 56). Maybe the son of that one guy from The Young and the Restless has some talent after all.

And not surprisingly, Forever My Girl's pretty bad according to early reviews. I can't see this making even a million this weekend.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby Shrykespeare » January 18th, 2018, 10:37 pm

Celebrity Birthdays:

John Carpenter turned 70 on 1/16 (still love The Thing)
Jay Hernandez turns 40 on 1/20 (just saw him in Bright)



Theater counts:

12 Strong - 3,002
Den of Thieves - 2,432
Forever My Girl - 1,032

Phantom Thread - 897
I, Tonya - 796



Next Week:

Hostiles expands to 3,000 theaters. No word on Maze Runner yet.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby numbersix » January 19th, 2018, 12:53 pm

Considering those midnight numbers (950K) I might be very wrong on Den of Thieves.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby transformers2 » January 19th, 2018, 1:18 pm

STX has been promoting the SHIT out of it during every sporting event I've watched in the past few weeks, but I'm still surprised by those Den of Thieves preview numbers.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby Buscemi2 » January 19th, 2018, 7:49 pm

The Maze Runner: The Death Bros will be getting 3,800 theatres, making it the second widest January release ever (the widest was Kung Fu Panda 3, Paddington 2 is now third widest).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby Shrykespeare » January 20th, 2018, 12:31 pm

Friday Estimates

Den of Thieves, $5.6M
12 Strong, $5.7M
Jumanji, $4.8M (officially crosses $300M)
The Post, $3.5M
The Greatest Showman, $3M (has already crossed $100M)
The Commuter, $2M
Insidious 4, $1.8M
Paddington 2, $1.8M
Star Wars, $1.6M
Forever My Girl, $1.5M
Phantom Thread, $1M
Proud Mary, $1M



Projections:

Jumanji, $20.5M
12 Strong, $15.1M
Den of Thieves, $15.1M (neck and neck!)
The Post, $12M
The Greatest Showman, $11.4M
Paddington 2, $8.3M
The Commuter, $6.9M
Star Wars, $6.8M (this will put it over $600M)
Insidious 4, $5.7M
Phantom Thread, $3.4M
Proud Mary, $3.4M
Forever My Girl, $3.1M
Pitch Perfect 3, $2.9M (this would break $100M)
Darkest Hour, $2.9M
The Shape of Water, $2.3M
Coco, $2.1M (this would put it at $200M)
Three Billboards, $2M
Ferdinand, $1.9M



PTA:

Hostiles, $8K
Den of Thieves, $6K
Jumanji, $5K
12 Strong, $5K
Phantom Thread, $5K
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby Walleye413 » January 20th, 2018, 2:01 pm

Nice job of marketing on Den of Thieves. They've got to be ecstatic on those numbers.

The Drama Club I help with wanted to listen to a song from the Greatest Showman yesterday before rehearsal so we played it and they all were belting it out at the top of their lungs. Words memorized and everything. Even if you don't like the movie - it's fun to see something catch on like that.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby Shrykespeare » January 21st, 2018, 1:40 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $20.0M
4 points - 12 Strong, $16.5M
3 points - Den of Thieves, $15.3M
2 points - The Post, $12.1M
1 point - The Greatest Showman, $11.0M
Paddington 2, $8.2M
The Commuter, $6.7M
Star Wars: The Last Key, $6.6M
Insidious: The Last Jedi, $5.9M
Forever My Girl, $4.7M



PTA:
5 points - Hostiles
4 points - Den of Thieves
3 points - 12 Strong
2 points - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
1 point - The Post

I Tonya and Phantom Thread just missed with their limited expansions.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby Shrykespeare » January 22nd, 2018, 7:09 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $19.5M (23)
4 points - 12 Strong, $16.5M (4)
3 points - Den of Thieves, $15.2M (3)
2 points - The Post, $11.7M (6)
1 point - The Greatest Showman, $10.6M (9)
Paddington 2, $8.2M
The Commuter, $6.6M
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, $6.6M
Insidious: The Last Key, $5.9M
Forever My Girl, $4.2M


PTA:
5 points - Hostiles, $6,666 (7)
4 points - Den of Thieves, $6,253 (4)
3 points - 12 Strong, $5,496 (3)
2 points - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $5,266 (14)
1 point - The Post, $4,110 (19)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby numbersix » January 22nd, 2018, 7:49 pm

Hostiles did a deal with the devil to top the PTA like that.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 01/

Postby Shrykespeare » January 23rd, 2018, 12:29 am

numbersix wrote:Hostiles did a deal with the devil to top the PTA like that.


I just got the joke. :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
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