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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby Walleye413 » January 4th, 2018, 1:53 am

Happy New Year! And good riddance to 2017! From a movie standpoint both onscreen and off 2017 will go down as kind of a stinker. A few hits at the end of the year salvaged an otherwise ‘meh’ year at the Cinema, that was greatly overshadowed by the ‘it’s about damn time” chorus of women and men who had been abused and manipulated at the hands of a powerful few for far too long.
So, will 2018 see actual change? Better treatment of actors and actresses? More diversity both in front of and behind the camera? Actual better movies? Sadly, any real change will probably be at least a year away when it comes to what we see on the screens. As for the behind the scenes stuff, that should happen post haste, or Hollywood will really miss an opportunity.

In terms of our too stubborn to die game here – will all this affect us? Indeed it might. I think we learned that surefire hits aren’t exactly that. That even fanboys get tired of the same old thing. And mock them as we may, sometimes the American moviegoers get a few things right.

But for this week – Well, don’t get too excited for change just yet. We’ve only got one wide opener – Insidious 4: Citizens on Patrol. Hollywood must release a horror movie the first weekend of the year so this is what we get. The Insidious movies have done quite well, all over-performed in our game at least according to cost. I think that ends with this one, however. At least the over-performing. It’ll get you 3 Top 5 points, no PTA and top out at just under 30 million. It’s not a terrible pick, especially in BO, but you could just save your money for Black Panther and do better.

We also have, supposedly, two PTA movie hopefuls coming out. The first is In Between, a Palestinian movie that has a great IMDB rating, and a lot of award history. A lot. Because it came out originally in 2016. I think. I can’t get a good read on this one. If it’s actually coming out for the first time in America this weekend you’ll probably get a few PTA points, and that rating makes this a worthy pick. All the Oscar hopefuls are going wider, so this should sneak in for a week. But, that’s a big if.

Equally iffy is Blame – a wicked cool High School take centered around the Crucible. Early reviews are stellar, and if this shows up in a couple of theatres it may actually do better than In Between. But that’s a lot of ifs. If nothing else, watch the trailer. This one looks twisted and good.

And that’s it. Come back next week as MLK Jr. weekend comes early – and with it more movie hopefuls than we normally get the 2nd weekend in January.

Top 5
Jumanji – Beating Star Wars for the first time
Star Wars – Still a monster hit don’t let the naysayers fool ya
Insidious – See it quick before it’s gone
The Greatest Showman – Everyone I’ve talked to who has seen this has Loved it. Yeah, Love – with a capital L. This could have some legs. At the least, a rabid cult following
Pitch Perfect 3 – Equally rabid fan base, but only for the original

PTA
The Post
Phantom Thread
I, Tonya
Blame (why not)
In Between
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby Buscemi2 » January 4th, 2018, 2:11 am

I don't think anything's going to change, to be honest. For so much of the sexual harassment and misogyny that's been exposed, there's still a lot of it that remains unexposed or ignored (for example, how does Scott Rudin still have so much power?). And the industry is still doing a lot of the same things they were doing before the slump (making every 80's property into a film, hyper-focusing on China, trying to make Bella Thorne a star, etc.). And there's the Academy being expected to give a noted anti-Semite an Oscar one year after nominating another anti-Semite and awarding a domestic abuser one due to his various connections.

I can name ten actresses that deserve a shot at carrying a film but none of them will ever get a chance as the industry only wants a certain type that appeals to them, not an audience.

As for the box office, I expect Insidious to play a bit better. The last one grossed $52 million and there hasn't been any horror since Jigsaw. I can't see Blame doing anything though. It's another vanity project directed by its star and do we really need more of those (also, we need to stop being nice to these kinds of films)? Also, The Crucible is one of the most uncomfortable and powerful plays ever written and it says a lot about how groups are persecuted by the narrow-minded for simply thinking differently. Did it need to be redone Easy A-style?
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby Shrykespeare » January 4th, 2018, 4:10 am

Buscemi2 wrote:I can name ten actresses that deserve a shot at carrying a film but none of them will ever get a chance as the industry only wants a certain type that appeals to them, not an audience.


I'd be quite interested to see that list from you, Boosh.


Celebrity birthdays to start off the year:

Frank Langella turned 80 on 1/1 (still an underrated actor)
Cuba Gooding Jr. turned 50 on 1/2 (first credited film role - "Boy Getting Haircut" in Coming to America)
Julian Sands turned 60 on 1/4 (great at playing British baddies)
January Jones turns 40 on 1/5 (has anyone seen The Last Man on Earth?)
John Singleton turns 50 on 1/6 (still haven't seen Boyz N the Hood)
Haley Bennett turns 30 on 1/7 (loved her in Magnificent Seven)
Happy 40th birthday Zoe Saldana! (6/19/18)
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby numbersix » January 4th, 2018, 5:03 am

I have to say, on paper this year looks more "meh" than last year. It's full of sequels. Hell, even Sicario has a sequel coming out. And I'm so disappointed in Ron Howard taking over Solo. Literally the worst choice. I would have preferred Uwe Boll.

Insidious 4 will benefit from lack of competition, but still be a dud in terms of this game. I'm thinking an $18m opening and 40m cume.

In Between has some PTA potential, but not much. Blame has none.


Top 5
1. Jumanji – $25m
2. Star Wars – $24m
3. Insidious – $18m
4. The Greatest Showman – $8.5m
5. Pitch Perfect 3 – $7.5m

Molly's Game is expanding, but I don't see it making much more than $5m this weekend.

PTA: The Post, Phantom Thread, I, Tonya, Jumanji, In Between

In Between
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby Buscemi2 » January 4th, 2018, 6:51 am

I have a feeling the target audience saw Molly's Game last week. It was always going to be something primarily for Sorkin fans.

And I'll reel off that list, because Shryke asked nicely.

Sofia Boutella
Kat Dennings
Diane Kruger
Charlotte Le Bon
Kate Micucci
Elizabeth Olsen
Florence Pugh
Noomi Rapace
Krysten Ritter
Stephanie Sigman

And this doesn't include actors who realistically could have gotten a shot a long time ago but got stuck in the minors while high-profile busts like Emma Roberts continued to get chances in the big time (like Anna Friel, Christina Hendricks, and Olivia Thirlby). Also, where did Imogen Poots go? She was in that Bogdanovich movie a few years back but it seems like she's been missing from film.

And though this was more by choice, Maria Bamford should be way more high-profile. She's easily the funniest comedienne right now and could destroy Schumer and Silverman (hell, most comedians who are too dependent on raunchiness, shock, and that tired bro shtick) at their game. Luckily, there's 20 episodes of Lady Dynamite on Netflix.

Even though she only does commercials, I have a soft spot for Milana Vayntraub (yes, the girl from the AT&T commercials).

Amanda Seyfried would have been on this list in the past but she's got a bunch of things coming out (give First Refomed a date, A24). I also see big things coming from Tiffany Haddish.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby numbersix » January 4th, 2018, 7:01 am

I worked with Sofia Boutella on a tiny movie she was the female lead in. She's great!

Interesting list, although Florence Pugh has only just emerged and I can tell you she is being scooped up by everybody at the moment. I knew 100% that Dennings and Rytter would be on your list - different kind of ability you're talking about ;). I don't see much talent in Dennings, but Rytter is the star in a major TV series. Olsen is getting roles. Rapace has had her chances but it too cold to be a mainstream star (she's the female version of Fassbender). Seyfried has had millions of chances but I don't think she has the chops. I saw Sigman in Annabelle Creation and she was woeful but maybe that's the film. Not sure if Micucci can do anything beyond her quirky girl persona.

Poots is still around and in a lot of UK indies, but I agree she's a great actress and hasn't had the opportunities. I'd say the same about Olivia Wilde, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Lizzy Caplan, Gemma Arterton, Hayley Atwell, and Kate Mara, whose role choices undermine their abilities.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby transformers2 » January 4th, 2018, 9:28 am

I don't expect 2018 to be much better or worse than any other cinematic year. The industry is going to release some stuff that I love, some stuff that I hate and a whole lot that falls some where in-between those 2 extremes.

On the actress front, I'd love to see Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Hayley Bennett, Melanie Lynskey, Tessa Thompson, Lizzy Caplan, Jenny Slate, Samara Weaving, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Haley Lu Richardson and Lilly Rabe get more substantial roles.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby Walleye413 » January 4th, 2018, 1:23 pm

Will someone please let Uwe Boll direct the Solo movie! This is now my dream project :)

Love the actress suggestions - there are so many of them with a ton of potential. Agreed on Haley Bennet I think she's really interesting. And I've loved Gugu Mbatha-Raw since Undercovers. That girl deserves a shot. I'm with Boosh on Kat Dennings, I think she's not your typical Hollywood type, and more talented than others think. I would add Lupita Nyongo, Constance Wu, as well. And I think Maia Mitchell is going to be a star someday. That's a talented kid.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby Buscemi2 » January 4th, 2018, 1:25 pm

I think Crazy Rich Asians will get Wu places. Warner Bros. is expecting that to be a franchise and if they move up the date, it could be this year's Girls Trip.

And how did I forget Slate? She's the modern-day Gilda Radner (and SNL made a big mistake to fire her after one season all because she said fuck on live TV).

Six, Sigman is far better than Annabelle Wallis (star of the first Annabelle and the actress that the industry hyped last summer only to get burned). Her TV work (it seems she's on a good half of the dramas on American television) shows that's she's got a presence.

Using the baseball analogy again, the industry seems to misuse a lot of actresses, either placing them on the sidelines (television or character work) or trying to get them to do things that don't work (remember when they tried to put Mila Kunis in action films?). It's a myopia similar to how the executives actually believe Lena Dunham is the voice of a generation simply because she said she was when no one her age actually gave a crap about her hurtful ego.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby numbersix » January 4th, 2018, 1:34 pm

Speaking of Jenny Slate, has anyone seen Landline? Is it worth watching?
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby Buscemi2 » January 4th, 2018, 1:35 pm

numbersix wrote:Speaking of Jenny Slate, has anyone seen Landline? Is it worth watching?


Watched it on Amazon Prime. I'm glad I didn't pay to see it in a theatre.

I expected more from the Obvious Child team.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby transformers2 » January 4th, 2018, 1:49 pm

numbersix wrote:Speaking of Jenny Slate, has anyone seen Landline? Is it worth watching?

Yeah. The script has some rough patches, but I was impressed by the acting and the dynamic between the characters.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby Shrykespeare » January 6th, 2018, 12:16 pm

Theater Counts:

Insidious: The Last Key - 3,116



Next week:

Paddington 2 - 3,600
The Commuter - 2,800
Proud Mary - 2,200
Condorito - 150


With that platform, I look for Proud Mary to pull T.Perry-ish numbers.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby Buscemi2 » January 6th, 2018, 1:13 pm

On the other hand, Proud Mary is under 90 minutes. Seeing how it was still be edited as late as last month (the rating was only just confirmed last week), this might suggest it's not very good.

Of course, it should do well on opening weekend.

Meanwhile, The Commuter is apparently getting some IMAX screens for a week before 12 Strong opens. Paddington 2 also got the DMR treatment but this was limited to Europe (Warner Bros. would be smart to get some matinees in there to split with Star Wars or The Commuter).
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 1/5

Postby Shrykespeare » January 6th, 2018, 4:45 pm

Friday Estimates:

Insidious 4, $12.7M
Jumanji 2, $10.8M
Star Wars 8, $6.6M
Greatest Showman, $4.2M
Pitch Perfect 3, $3.3M
Molly's Game, $2.3M
Ferdinand, $2.3M
Darkest Hour, $1.8M
Coco, $1.5M
All Da Money, $1.0M



Weekend Projections:

Jumanji 2, $34.5M
Insidious 4, $25.3M
Star Wars 8, $24M
Greatest Showman, $14.1M
Pitch Perfect 3, $10.3M
Ferdinand, $7.9M
Molly's Game, $6.8M
Darkest Hour, $6M
Coco, $6M
All Da Money, $3.5M



PTA:
The Post, $43K
Jumanji 2, $9K
Insidious 4, $8K
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