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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/25-9

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/25-9

Postby numbersix » December 23rd, 2017, 7:34 am

MERRY CHRISTMAS, folks. Enjoy those words, because it’s only a matter of time before a certain entertainment company, who has made a major expansion this year, will be forcing the citizens of the world to yell “DELIGHTFUL DISNEY DAY TO ALL”. Yes, Disney are laughing all the way to the bank, out the other door, and into the company that prints money, now with The Last Jedi ending the year on a high (despite some woman-hating alt-righters trying to post fake reviews). And they’re acquiring Fox on top of that. Disney are the Blob of corporations.

Anywhoo, as we come to terms with this weekend’s estimates (with no real surprises: Star Wars is on top with Jumanji 2 and Pitch Perfect 3 following behind), it’s already time to think of next week, with 3 films coming out on Christmas Day and another on Friday. Let’s get to the final week of 2017.




The only wide release is probably less value than some of the limited ones. All the Money in the World (Sony) is Ridley “2 Good Flicks And Then I’m Hacking it” Scott’s latest, a crime thriller about a kidnapped teen and his mother’s attempt to get her father, a billionaire, to foot up the bill. The film is more famous for replacing a rather gropey Kevin Spacey with Chris Plummer 6 weeks before release. But that won’t save the film, which is getting average reviews and a release amongst much stronger titles. At best it’ll play to adults the way The Gambler did and make around 30m. But it could also only muster up 10m for the 7 days and 20-25 max. That’s zero PTA, T5, and a middling IMDB score. Even if you offered me all the money in the world (see what I did there) I wouldn’t pick up this dud.




On the limited side, however, there’s hope. Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Thread (Focus) sees Daniel Day Lewis in his possible final role, playing a young Anakin Skywalker as he learns the way of the Force, utilising his skilled needlework to make the ultimate 1950s dress. Or something. The film is up for multiple awards already, with DDL guaranteed an Oscar nom, and possible win. Reviews are strong.

It’s out on 4 screens, and apparently planning to expand slowly across Jan, so expect this to be a PTA goldmine. 12 PTA points minimum, and a great IMDB score. But T5 and BO? That’s a tough call. (The appropriately titled director) PTA failed to make money from his last two flicks, despite the goodwill from critics. This should outperform Inherent Vice and maybe The Master, but this will be no There Will Be Blood. Maybe 20m if it’s lucky. Nab it in Ultimate, but be wary in BO (where it’s $5).




Molly’s Game (STX) was expected to be this generation’s Erin Brokovich. It too features a strong, sassy female protagonist, this time Molly Bloom, the professional skier who became a professional casino owner who became a professional crimefighter. Only someone thought Aaron Sorkin can direct as well as he can write. In fact he can’t write that well, so no wonder the response has been muted. STX are opening this in 271 screens, with a wide expansion planned for next week. But I can’t see it cracking the Top 5, or making much beyond $15m, and that’s if the planets align. Fold on this one.




Finally, on Friday we see the release of Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (SPC), a period drama about aged actor Gloria Grahame and her romance with a younger man. There was some talk of an Oscar nom for Annette Benning (4 noms, no wins), and this kind of film will appeal to an older audience in the right way. It could even get a few PTA points, so consider your $3 or $4 in Ultimate.


My predictions for the weekend
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $65m
2. Jumanji 2 - $35m
3. Pitch Perfect 3 - $26m
4. Coco - $11m
5. The Great Showman - $10m


PTA: Phantom Thread, The Post, Star Wars 8: The Last Time Anyone Ever does anything Contentious With This Cashcow, Jumanji, Film Stars

And that, dear folks, is the end of 2017. Thanks to Shryke for ensuring this rickety old website stays together, and here’s to a 2018 where I might finally win something.

Next week sees Walleye set his sights on horror sequel Insidious: The Last Key, as well as limited releases In Between and Blame. And I’ll post a thread for our most anticipated films of the season.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Postby Buscemi2 » December 23rd, 2017, 8:39 am

Phantom Thread will be getting 70mm prints so that should help the PTA on PTA's newest. Meanwhile, am I the only one who thinks There Will Be Blood is one of his weaker films?

I have a feeling STX have given up on Molly's Game. The 250+ theatre opening combined with reviews that aren't necessarily glowing and an overexposed Chastain (from what I've seen in the trailers, it feels as if the role was written for Christina Hendricks) suggests only Sorkin fans will see it, even with the Christmas openers struggling to find audiences. However, it should play better in those theatres than Father Figures.

And Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool looks DOA. Bening's awards buzz has been limited and reviews haven't been so great (it's still a green on Metacritic but for how long?). As I said before, Bening needs to get away from projects where it's obvious they couldn't get Meryl Streep.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Postby Shrykespeare » December 28th, 2017, 3:26 am

Estimates


Monday:

Star Wars, $27.5M
Jumanji, $19M
Pitch Perfect 3, $6.5M
Greatest Showman, $5.6M
Ferdinand, $2.8M
Coco, $2.8M
Downsizing, $2.7M
All the Money in the World, $2.6M
Father Figures, $2.2M
Darkest Hour, $1.6M
The Shape of Water, $1.5M

Molly's Game, $1M
The Post, $236K (9 theaters)
Phantom Thread, $127K (4 theaters)
Hostiles, $9K (3 theaters)
Happy End, $7K (4 theaters)


Tuesday:

Star Wars, $27.7M
Jumanji, $17.1M
Pitch Perfect 3, $7.4M
The Greatest Showman, $5.1M
Ferdinand, $4M
Coco, $2.7M
Downsizing, $1.9M
All the Money in the World, $1.8M
Darkest Hour, $1.5M
Father Figures, $1.4M
The Shape of Water, $1.1M

Molly's Game, $668K
Phantom Thread, $66K
The Post, $156K
Hostiles, $4K
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Postby Buscemi2 » December 28th, 2017, 3:48 am

Sorry we couldn't get them posted. Warner Bros. and Sony have still never given officials on some of their titles.

And that's some impressive numbers on Phantom Thread. In fact, a great year for 70mm exhibition in general. Six films were released in the format and all were successful (all but Phantom Thread will gross $100 million by the end of the year). And that doesn't include The Last Jedi getting IMAX 15/70 prints.

2018 could be even bigger with blow-ups.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Postby Chienfantome » December 28th, 2017, 4:48 am

Go Jumanji, go !!
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Postby undeadmonkey » December 28th, 2017, 1:52 pm

I'm honestly shocked at the Jumanji numbers.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Postby Shrykespeare » December 28th, 2017, 5:09 pm

Wednesday:

Star Wars, $21.8M ($445M)
Jumanji, $15.1M ($104M)
Pitch Perfect 3, $6.4M ($40M)
Greatest Showman, $4.6M ($28.7M)
Ferdinand, $3.4M ($37.7M)
Coco, $2.6M ($169.7M)
Downsizing, $1.4M ($11M)
All the Money in the World, $1.4M ($5.7M)

The Post, $140K (9 theaters)
Phantom Thread, $58K (4 theaters)



Damn. Jumanji may hit $200M at this rate... So glad I put it on my MS slates!
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Postby Shrykespeare » December 29th, 2017, 8:29 pm

Film Stars is opening in 4 theaters tomorrow.


Next week, Insidious: The Last Key is scheduled for 3,000 theaters. Not too shabby for a low-grade horror flick.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Postby Buscemi2 » December 29th, 2017, 8:31 pm

The Insidious movies still make money. Chapter 3 made $52 million despite bringing almost no one (I think) back from the first two.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Postby Shrykespeare » December 29th, 2017, 9:54 pm

I suppose. But the first three movies were released in April, September, and June (respectively).

I've barely heard of Lin Shaye (the top biller), and as for the rest of the cast, I know Leigh Whannell from the first Saw film, and Kirk Acevedo from a couple of things. But that's it.

The first movie of EVERY year is always a horror film, and they tend to make between $15-$30M. I would imagine the same result for Last Key, regardless of whether it's an Insidious movie or not. It's the fourth film, and lag has got to set in by now.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Postby Shrykespeare » December 30th, 2017, 5:05 pm

Friday Estimates

Star Wars, $19M
Jumanji, $17.7M
Pitch Perfect 3, $6.6M
The Greatest Showman, $5.4M
Ferdinand, $4.5M
Coco, $2.8M
All the Money in the World, $1.8M
Darkest Hour, $1.7M
Downsizing, $1.6M
Wonder, $1.2M
Father Figures, $1.2M
The Shape of Water, $1.2M



Weekend Projections

Star Wars, $70M
Jumanji, $68M
Pitch Perfect 3, $24M
Greatest Showman, $20.3M
Ferdinand, $15.5M
Coco, $10M
Darkest Hour, $7.7M
All the Money in the World, $7.1M
Downsizing, $5.8M
The Shape of Water, $5M
Wonder, $4.6M
Father Figures, $4.5M


It's official - Jumanji is a JUGGERNAUT.




PTA:
The Post, $86K
Jumanji, $18K
Star Wars, $16K
Darkest Hour, $8.1K
Hostiles, $8K
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Postby Chienfantome » December 30th, 2017, 7:35 pm

Shrykespeare wrote:It's official - Jumanji is a JUGGERNAUT.


Yeah, at this rate, the film might not end up far from $300M.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Postby Shrykespeare » December 31st, 2017, 9:13 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Star Wars: The Last Jedi, $52.4M ($517.4M 3-week total)
4 points - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $50.8M ($169.8 10-day total)
3 points - Pitch Perfect 3, $17.8M (looks like this has a shot at $100M after all)
2 points - The Greatest Showman, $15.3M
1 point - Ferdinand, $11.6M (looks like this has decent legs after all)
Coco, $6.6M
All the Money in the World, $5.4M
Darkest Hour, $5.3M
Downsizing, $4.6M
Father Figures, $3.7M


PTA:
5 points - The Post, $60K
4 points - Phantom Thread, $55K
3 points - I Tonya, $13.5K
2 points - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $13.4K
1 point - Star Wars: The Last Jedi, $12.4K

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool sits in 6th place with $9K, Molly's Game in 7th with $8.6K. Hostiles, Call Me By Your Name, and Darkest Hour round out the Top 10.




As stated, I don't have access to my league standings while on vaca, so I will update those when I get back (likely on 1/6).
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