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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Walleye413 » December 19th, 2017, 2:12 pm

So, that escalated rather quickly. Star Wars surprised no one by being the biggest opener of the weekend, the month, and the year. Leading up to it, and coming out of the weekend there was a fair amount of: It won’t be as big, it won’t be as good, some fanboys don’t like it, blah, blah, blah. It’s a monster hit. All the other stuff is just noise. Ferdinand got lost in the shadow of The First Order, but a few Indie/Oscar hopefuls continued to see daylight. Until this week.

This week we have 247 movies opening up. Some of them look pretty entertaining, some have bizarre stories (and that’s just the behind the scenes stuff), some will be forgotten by next weekend. But we’ll take a look at them all to help your Christmas weekend movie viewing, and your slate building.

Let’s begin with the biggest of the bunch: Jumanji – Welcome to the Jungle. Back when we did the full year draft I thought Jumanji might be a decent holiday hit – and now more and more it looks to be the Sing of this year. Dwayne Johnson is back in PG-13 mode (we’ll see if Baywatch steers him away from hard R movies for awhile). Jack Black and Chris Rock are doing their usual shtick. Karen Gillan is both looking gorgeous and making a statement about the objectification of women in the video game world. And hey – it’s loosely based on an old Robin Williams movie that most of us have very fond memories of. Jumanji is going to be big. It won’t beat Star Wars’ second weekend, but if you’re looking for a Top 5 and Box Office monster this is the one to pick. Jumanji opens on Wednesday (tomorrow) but for game purposes it’ll get you $40 million over the weekend and land north of 200 million when it’s all said and done. That will include 12 Top points, much less PTA due to the Indie overload, but well worth the price on all slates. Pick it up.

After that – it’s a crapshoot.

You could pick The Greatest Showman. I’m a Musical nerd, so I’ll be at this one with most of my family. It stars Hugh Jackman as P.T. Barnum and his sanitized story of creating the Greatest Show on Earth. This is the PG version so some of his more controversial edges have been shaved away. You’ll hear a strong message of inclusivity, and being a star for who you are. Easy to do when you’re Zefron and Zendaya – but the rest of the cast look like they’ll hold their own as well. This movie should have been big – America has fallen in love with Musicals again, everybody loves Hugh Jackman, The message is timely. But unless I’m reading the signs wrong – I think this is an average player for game purposes at best. I would guess maybe $15 for the weekend (after also opening this weekend) and it might end its run around $70 million You might even get a few Top 5 points with that – but it’s not the breakout movie I thought it was 6 months ago.

You could choose the Pitches! Pitch Perfect 3 gives us one for the road for this surprising movie-verse. Who knew Acapella Groups had such fans? After an under the radar debut, Pitch Perfect 2 sang their way to $184 million! That’s crazy! No way that 3 makes that much. Right? Right? Probably not, but to think this falls off too far would be a mistake as well. These girls have proven their worth and they’ll do it again this weekend. I would guess $35 million for the weekend (the first of our Friday openers) and $125 million for a final tally. If you’re not convinced on Jumanji, then Aca-awesome is the right pick for you.

The hits keep on rolling with Downsizing, the latest from Alexander Payne, and starring Matt Damon and Kristen Wiig (Although I think she’s more of a cameo in this one.) I think Payne is one of the more interesting Director’s working today. His movies are well thought out, deliberate, and lived in. Not everything works in them, of course, but you know you get something different with each of his films. This might be his most ambitious movie yet in terms of having a strong message (Or at leas since Election and Citizen Ruth.) Downsizing is a clear fable where Damon’s character comes alive after going small. In the land of excess, aka The United States, will that message play? Probably about as well as any other Payne movie. I think it ends up around $40-45 million in Box Office after a $9-10 million opening. The IMDB score should be excellent, but that won’t get you much in terms of PTA or Top 5 points. You could fill your slate in BO if you want, and if you think Matt Damon is more of a help than a hindrance after sticking his foot in his mouth for the past few months.

Then there’s Bastards, oops strike that, Father Figures – a movie that was supposed to come out in 2008, oops strike that, 2011, oops, 2014, err, this weekend. This is supposed to be a buddy comedy with Owen Wilson and Ed Helms looking for their dad after some late in life reveal from Glenn Close. Any movie with such a torturous existence just to get to the screen is a dog. Yes it’ll make money, but literally almost any other movie coming out this weekend will serve you better. I predict 7 million for the weekend before this crashes out at less than 30 million overall. No PTA, No Top 5, No love for this stinker.

Good heavens, there’s 3 more movies to talk about? I’ve got Christmas shopping to do. Okay so you should pick The Post. It’s going to make a ton of PTA points over the next few weeks, it’s going to get nominated for a boatload of Oscars, and then it’s going to make bank when it expands wide in 3 weeks. I’ll predict 15 PTA plus 8 Top 5 and a final tally north of 100 million. For the price, this is a steal and we should all have it on our slates.

Think about Hostiles. This has, by all accounts, one of Christian Bale’s best performances, plus stellar turns from Rosamund Pike and Wes Studi. It’s also incredibly relevant to our current racial tension, and the hope for growth in that area. But I just don’t think people want to focus on that around Christmas. They’ll choose the more “uplifting” message of The Post and the free press sticking it to a deceitful government. I don’t think Bale is even going to get an Oscar nod. Bad news for the movie, and bad news for those who have it on their slates (yours truly.) It’ll get you a few PTA points this weekend after opening in NY and LA, but you can probably do better.

Happy End was an Oscar hopeful, but missed out on the Foreign Language short list. Plus it’s supposed to be as bleak as the Seahawks playoff chances, so whereas this one had potential, now I’d skip it.

Whew – so many movies – so little time. Hope you get to see a few over the next few weeks. Choose wisely. And Merry Christmas.

Top 5
Star Wars
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Pitch Perfect 3
The Greatest Showman
Ferdinand


PTA
Star Wars
The Post
Jumanji
Hostiles
Pitch Perfect
(Actually – I could be wrong about every single one of these this weekend.)
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby numbersix » December 19th, 2017, 4:11 pm

Thanks for getting it in early, Walleye.

I agree that Jumanji is the best pick this weekend of BO films. Maybe not 200m but certainly 150m total. Think Pitch Perfect 3 and Greatest Showman will split the female audience, but Pitch should win. I've very little hope for Downsizing (reviews just weren't as strong, and it's an inide film coming out at Xmas. Bad idea) or Father Figures.

As for PTa, The Post will kick ass, Hostiles won't last, and Happy End might get a few points between now and Feb. That said, I don't think The Post will make $100m, but it could hit 50m which is still impressive.

Top 5
1. Star Wars - 100m (130 4-day)
2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - 40m (47m 4-day)
3. Pitch Perfect 3 - 28m (32m 4-day)
4. The Greatest Showman 15m (17m 4-day)
5. Ferdinand 7m (10m 4-day)

PTA: The Post, Star Wars, Hostiles, Jumanji, Happy End
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Shrykespeare » December 19th, 2017, 10:25 pm

I hope when you said Chris Rock, you were make a joke, what with Dwayne Johnson once being called The Rock... because it's Kevin Hart. Who, last I checked, has appeared in every movie this year.


Celebrity Birthdays:

Jane Fonda turns 80 on 12/21
Ray Romano turns 60 on 12/21
Happy 60th birthday Tim Robbins! (10/16/18)

Remember, Red ... hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Buscemi2 » December 19th, 2017, 10:31 pm

Hart might be the hardest-to-miss 5'2" person now that Prince is no longer with us.

They should have called this Jumanji "A Little Hart and a Big Johnson Part 2".
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Walleye413 » December 20th, 2017, 1:32 am

Ha totally didn't catch that :) Yes Kevin Hart. Him.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Buscemi2 » December 21st, 2017, 1:59 am

Early numbers have Jumanji at $7-7.5 million (A- Cinemascore) and The Greatest Showman at $3-3.7 million (A Cinemascore). The best comparables to last Christmas would seem to be Sing ($11 million Wednesday and was also previewed before opening) and Passengers ($4 million Wednesday and also with mixed to negative reviews). However, Passengers had a worse Cinemascore and much more backlash (the worst reviews for The Greatest Showman seem to find it too schmaltzy while Passengers was criticized for being misogynistic), making it seem like The Greatest Showman will play better with audiences than critics (the local Drafthouse is getting spammed on Facebook by psychotic musical buffs for only putting it on one screen, fast becoming as annoying as the angry parents who think it needs to be about them because their children can only come in at a designated time).

Meanwhile, Jumanji should end up hitting at least $150 million. $200 million though I think is a long shot, especially with Ferdinand and Coco still playing.

It will be interesting to see how the Friday openers will play. Critics seem to hate Pitch Perfect 3 but will the fans care? It won't play like the second but I think $100 million is possible. Meanwhile, there's a strong chance Father Figures could play like Why Him? (which incredibly made $60 million due to the Christmas opening, any other date and it would have been lucky to make $20 million) despite its long period on the shelf. I saw a trailer play a while back in front an audience and it got a pretty good reaction.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Shrykespeare » December 22nd, 2017, 12:18 pm

Theater Counts:

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - 3,765
Pitch Perfect 3 - 3,447
The Greatest Showman - 3,006
Father Figures - 2,908
Downsizing - 2,668
The Post - 9
Hostiles - 3
Happy End - 3

Darkest Hour - 805
The Shape of Water - 726


Christmas:

All the Money in the World - 2,068
Molly's Game - 271
Phantom Thread - 4
Happy 60th birthday Tim Robbins! (10/16/18)

Remember, Red ... hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Buscemi2 » December 23rd, 2017, 7:07 am

Early weekend estimates (via Deadline):

The Last Jedi $112 million four-day
Jumanji $45.9 million four-day
Pitch Perfect 3 $35 million four-day, A- Cinemascore (looks like reviews did this one in, the second opened to nearly $70 million)
The Greatest Showman $13.5 million four-day (seems like this is bombing everywhere but here, I had to buy advance tickets because showings are either sold out or close to it)
Downsizing $8.7 million four-day, C Cinemascore (Paramount should have platformed this before going wide)
Father Figures $5 million four-day, B- Cinemascore (When's the last time a major film bombed this hard at Christmas? I'm thinking The Postman for some reason.)
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Shrykespeare » December 23rd, 2017, 1:41 pm

Friday Estimates

Star Wars: The Last Jedi, $24.7M
Jumanji, $12.5M
Pitch Perfect 3, $10.6M
The Greatest Showman, $3.1M
Ferdinand, $2.8M
Downsizing, $2M
Coco, $1.8M
Darkest Hour, $1.4M
Father Figures, $1.4M
The Shape of Water, $1.2M



Weekend Predictions (4-day)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi, $103M
Jumanji, $42.5M ($59.1M 6-day)
Pitch Perfect 3, $35M
The Greatest Showman, $14.4M ($19M 6-day)
Ferdinanrd, $9M
Downsizing, $7M
Coco, $6.7M
Darkest Hour, $6.2M
Father Figures, $5.2M
The Shape of Water, $5M
Wonder, $3M
The Star, $1.7M



PTA:
The Post, $80K
Star Wars: $24K
Jumanji, $11K
Pitch Perfect 3, $10K
Hostiles, $9K
Happy 60th birthday Tim Robbins! (10/16/18)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Buscemi2 » December 24th, 2017, 12:36 pm

Three-day estimates:

Star Wars $68.5 million (69% drop)
Jumanji $34 million
Pitch Perfect 3 $20.4 million
The Greatest Showman $8.6 million
Ferdinand $7.1 million (47% drop)
Coco $5.2 million
Downsizing $4.6 million
Darkest Hour $4.1 million
Father Figures $3.2 million
The Shape of Water $3.1 million
Wonder $2 million

Outside of the top ten, Daddy's Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express are closing in on $100 million. Both are at $99 million.

And a fun fact: Father Figures' three-day PTA is the worst for a Christmas release since 2002's Pinocchio. Even 2005's Rumor Has It, which appears on Box Office Mojo's worst PTA list despite opening on a Sunday, had a better result.

PTA
The Post $55,000
Star Wars $16,183
I, Tonya $12,046
Jumanji $9,031
Hostiles $8,667
--
Happy End $721 (I'm thinking this is a typo, as I'd read 3 theatres a few days earlier and now it's being listed as 33)
Last edited by Buscemi2 on December 24th, 2017, 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Shrykespeare » December 24th, 2017, 12:38 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Star Wars: The Last Jedi, $68.5M ($365M total)
4 points - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $34.0M ($50.6M 5-day)
3 points - Pitch Perfect 3, $20.5M
2 points - The Greatest Showman, $8.6M ($13.2M 5-day)
1 point - Ferdinand, $7.0M
Coco, $5.2M
Downsizing, $4.6M
Darkest Hour, $4.1M
Father Figures, $3.2M
The Shape of Water, $3.0M



PTA:
5 points - The Post, $55K
4 points - Star Wars: The Last Jedi, $16.2K
3 points - I, Tonya, $12K
2 points - Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, $9K
1 point - Hostiles, $8.6K

Happy End had a rousing PTA of $721.
Happy 60th birthday Tim Robbins! (10/16/18)

Remember, Red ... hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Shrykespeare » December 24th, 2017, 12:45 pm

I'm not a PTA fan, but this one has zero appeal for me.


Celebrity birthdays:

Ted Danson turns 70 on 12/29
Lucy Punch turns 40 on 12/30
Tim Matheson turns 70 on 12/31
Sir Anthony Hopkins turns 80 on 12/31
Happy 60th birthday Tim Robbins! (10/16/18)

Remember, Red ... hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby numbersix » December 24th, 2017, 2:00 pm

That Happy End PTA is a mistake on BOM's part. They put in 33 theatres instead of 3. Still not sure that's good enough for any PTA points, sadly.

EDIT - looks like it was 33 theatres afterwards. Doh
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Buscemi2 » December 24th, 2017, 2:10 pm

D'oh on me, too. I actually thought people would be foolish enough to see Father Figures. Looks like I'll have to eat those words with a knife and fork.

Warner Bros. should have dumped it on Labor Day and opened Game Night at Christmas.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22

Postby Buscemi2 » December 25th, 2017, 4:14 pm

Happy End was indeed three theatres. Box Office Mojo has corrected the issue.
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