Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 12/20 and 12/22
Posted: December 19th, 2017, 2:12 pm
So, that escalated rather quickly. Star Wars surprised no one by being the biggest opener of the weekend, the month, and the year. Leading up to it, and coming out of the weekend there was a fair amount of: It won’t be as big, it won’t be as good, some fanboys don’t like it, blah, blah, blah. It’s a monster hit. All the other stuff is just noise. Ferdinand got lost in the shadow of The First Order, but a few Indie/Oscar hopefuls continued to see daylight. Until this week.
This week we have 247 movies opening up. Some of them look pretty entertaining, some have bizarre stories (and that’s just the behind the scenes stuff), some will be forgotten by next weekend. But we’ll take a look at them all to help your Christmas weekend movie viewing, and your slate building.
Let’s begin with the biggest of the bunch: Jumanji – Welcome to the Jungle. Back when we did the full year draft I thought Jumanji might be a decent holiday hit – and now more and more it looks to be the Sing of this year. Dwayne Johnson is back in PG-13 mode (we’ll see if Baywatch steers him away from hard R movies for awhile). Jack Black and Chris Rock are doing their usual shtick. Karen Gillan is both looking gorgeous and making a statement about the objectification of women in the video game world. And hey – it’s loosely based on an old Robin Williams movie that most of us have very fond memories of. Jumanji is going to be big. It won’t beat Star Wars’ second weekend, but if you’re looking for a Top 5 and Box Office monster this is the one to pick. Jumanji opens on Wednesday (tomorrow) but for game purposes it’ll get you $40 million over the weekend and land north of 200 million when it’s all said and done. That will include 12 Top points, much less PTA due to the Indie overload, but well worth the price on all slates. Pick it up.
After that – it’s a crapshoot.
You could pick The Greatest Showman. I’m a Musical nerd, so I’ll be at this one with most of my family. It stars Hugh Jackman as P.T. Barnum and his sanitized story of creating the Greatest Show on Earth. This is the PG version so some of his more controversial edges have been shaved away. You’ll hear a strong message of inclusivity, and being a star for who you are. Easy to do when you’re Zefron and Zendaya – but the rest of the cast look like they’ll hold their own as well. This movie should have been big – America has fallen in love with Musicals again, everybody loves Hugh Jackman, The message is timely. But unless I’m reading the signs wrong – I think this is an average player for game purposes at best. I would guess maybe $15 for the weekend (after also opening this weekend) and it might end its run around $70 million You might even get a few Top 5 points with that – but it’s not the breakout movie I thought it was 6 months ago.
You could choose the Pitches! Pitch Perfect 3 gives us one for the road for this surprising movie-verse. Who knew Acapella Groups had such fans? After an under the radar debut, Pitch Perfect 2 sang their way to $184 million! That’s crazy! No way that 3 makes that much. Right? Right? Probably not, but to think this falls off too far would be a mistake as well. These girls have proven their worth and they’ll do it again this weekend. I would guess $35 million for the weekend (the first of our Friday openers) and $125 million for a final tally. If you’re not convinced on Jumanji, then Aca-awesome is the right pick for you.
The hits keep on rolling with Downsizing, the latest from Alexander Payne, and starring Matt Damon and Kristen Wiig (Although I think she’s more of a cameo in this one.) I think Payne is one of the more interesting Director’s working today. His movies are well thought out, deliberate, and lived in. Not everything works in them, of course, but you know you get something different with each of his films. This might be his most ambitious movie yet in terms of having a strong message (Or at leas since Election and Citizen Ruth.) Downsizing is a clear fable where Damon’s character comes alive after going small. In the land of excess, aka The United States, will that message play? Probably about as well as any other Payne movie. I think it ends up around $40-45 million in Box Office after a $9-10 million opening. The IMDB score should be excellent, but that won’t get you much in terms of PTA or Top 5 points. You could fill your slate in BO if you want, and if you think Matt Damon is more of a help than a hindrance after sticking his foot in his mouth for the past few months.
Then there’s Bastards, oops strike that, Father Figures – a movie that was supposed to come out in 2008, oops strike that, 2011, oops, 2014, err, this weekend. This is supposed to be a buddy comedy with Owen Wilson and Ed Helms looking for their dad after some late in life reveal from Glenn Close. Any movie with such a torturous existence just to get to the screen is a dog. Yes it’ll make money, but literally almost any other movie coming out this weekend will serve you better. I predict 7 million for the weekend before this crashes out at less than 30 million overall. No PTA, No Top 5, No love for this stinker.
Good heavens, there’s 3 more movies to talk about? I’ve got Christmas shopping to do. Okay so you should pick The Post. It’s going to make a ton of PTA points over the next few weeks, it’s going to get nominated for a boatload of Oscars, and then it’s going to make bank when it expands wide in 3 weeks. I’ll predict 15 PTA plus 8 Top 5 and a final tally north of 100 million. For the price, this is a steal and we should all have it on our slates.
Think about Hostiles. This has, by all accounts, one of Christian Bale’s best performances, plus stellar turns from Rosamund Pike and Wes Studi. It’s also incredibly relevant to our current racial tension, and the hope for growth in that area. But I just don’t think people want to focus on that around Christmas. They’ll choose the more “uplifting” message of The Post and the free press sticking it to a deceitful government. I don’t think Bale is even going to get an Oscar nod. Bad news for the movie, and bad news for those who have it on their slates (yours truly.) It’ll get you a few PTA points this weekend after opening in NY and LA, but you can probably do better.
Happy End was an Oscar hopeful, but missed out on the Foreign Language short list. Plus it’s supposed to be as bleak as the Seahawks playoff chances, so whereas this one had potential, now I’d skip it.
Whew – so many movies – so little time. Hope you get to see a few over the next few weeks. Choose wisely. And Merry Christmas.
Top 5
Star Wars
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Pitch Perfect 3
The Greatest Showman
Ferdinand
PTA
Star Wars
The Post
Jumanji
Hostiles
Pitch Perfect
(Actually – I could be wrong about every single one of these this weekend.)
This week we have 247 movies opening up. Some of them look pretty entertaining, some have bizarre stories (and that’s just the behind the scenes stuff), some will be forgotten by next weekend. But we’ll take a look at them all to help your Christmas weekend movie viewing, and your slate building.
Let’s begin with the biggest of the bunch: Jumanji – Welcome to the Jungle. Back when we did the full year draft I thought Jumanji might be a decent holiday hit – and now more and more it looks to be the Sing of this year. Dwayne Johnson is back in PG-13 mode (we’ll see if Baywatch steers him away from hard R movies for awhile). Jack Black and Chris Rock are doing their usual shtick. Karen Gillan is both looking gorgeous and making a statement about the objectification of women in the video game world. And hey – it’s loosely based on an old Robin Williams movie that most of us have very fond memories of. Jumanji is going to be big. It won’t beat Star Wars’ second weekend, but if you’re looking for a Top 5 and Box Office monster this is the one to pick. Jumanji opens on Wednesday (tomorrow) but for game purposes it’ll get you $40 million over the weekend and land north of 200 million when it’s all said and done. That will include 12 Top points, much less PTA due to the Indie overload, but well worth the price on all slates. Pick it up.
After that – it’s a crapshoot.
You could pick The Greatest Showman. I’m a Musical nerd, so I’ll be at this one with most of my family. It stars Hugh Jackman as P.T. Barnum and his sanitized story of creating the Greatest Show on Earth. This is the PG version so some of his more controversial edges have been shaved away. You’ll hear a strong message of inclusivity, and being a star for who you are. Easy to do when you’re Zefron and Zendaya – but the rest of the cast look like they’ll hold their own as well. This movie should have been big – America has fallen in love with Musicals again, everybody loves Hugh Jackman, The message is timely. But unless I’m reading the signs wrong – I think this is an average player for game purposes at best. I would guess maybe $15 for the weekend (after also opening this weekend) and it might end its run around $70 million You might even get a few Top 5 points with that – but it’s not the breakout movie I thought it was 6 months ago.
You could choose the Pitches! Pitch Perfect 3 gives us one for the road for this surprising movie-verse. Who knew Acapella Groups had such fans? After an under the radar debut, Pitch Perfect 2 sang their way to $184 million! That’s crazy! No way that 3 makes that much. Right? Right? Probably not, but to think this falls off too far would be a mistake as well. These girls have proven their worth and they’ll do it again this weekend. I would guess $35 million for the weekend (the first of our Friday openers) and $125 million for a final tally. If you’re not convinced on Jumanji, then Aca-awesome is the right pick for you.
The hits keep on rolling with Downsizing, the latest from Alexander Payne, and starring Matt Damon and Kristen Wiig (Although I think she’s more of a cameo in this one.) I think Payne is one of the more interesting Director’s working today. His movies are well thought out, deliberate, and lived in. Not everything works in them, of course, but you know you get something different with each of his films. This might be his most ambitious movie yet in terms of having a strong message (Or at leas since Election and Citizen Ruth.) Downsizing is a clear fable where Damon’s character comes alive after going small. In the land of excess, aka The United States, will that message play? Probably about as well as any other Payne movie. I think it ends up around $40-45 million in Box Office after a $9-10 million opening. The IMDB score should be excellent, but that won’t get you much in terms of PTA or Top 5 points. You could fill your slate in BO if you want, and if you think Matt Damon is more of a help than a hindrance after sticking his foot in his mouth for the past few months.
Then there’s Bastards, oops strike that, Father Figures – a movie that was supposed to come out in 2008, oops strike that, 2011, oops, 2014, err, this weekend. This is supposed to be a buddy comedy with Owen Wilson and Ed Helms looking for their dad after some late in life reveal from Glenn Close. Any movie with such a torturous existence just to get to the screen is a dog. Yes it’ll make money, but literally almost any other movie coming out this weekend will serve you better. I predict 7 million for the weekend before this crashes out at less than 30 million overall. No PTA, No Top 5, No love for this stinker.
Good heavens, there’s 3 more movies to talk about? I’ve got Christmas shopping to do. Okay so you should pick The Post. It’s going to make a ton of PTA points over the next few weeks, it’s going to get nominated for a boatload of Oscars, and then it’s going to make bank when it expands wide in 3 weeks. I’ll predict 15 PTA plus 8 Top 5 and a final tally north of 100 million. For the price, this is a steal and we should all have it on our slates.
Think about Hostiles. This has, by all accounts, one of Christian Bale’s best performances, plus stellar turns from Rosamund Pike and Wes Studi. It’s also incredibly relevant to our current racial tension, and the hope for growth in that area. But I just don’t think people want to focus on that around Christmas. They’ll choose the more “uplifting” message of The Post and the free press sticking it to a deceitful government. I don’t think Bale is even going to get an Oscar nod. Bad news for the movie, and bad news for those who have it on their slates (yours truly.) It’ll get you a few PTA points this weekend after opening in NY and LA, but you can probably do better.
Happy End was an Oscar hopeful, but missed out on the Foreign Language short list. Plus it’s supposed to be as bleak as the Seahawks playoff chances, so whereas this one had potential, now I’d skip it.
Whew – so many movies – so little time. Hope you get to see a few over the next few weeks. Choose wisely. And Merry Christmas.
Top 5
Star Wars
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Pitch Perfect 3
The Greatest Showman
Ferdinand
PTA
Star Wars
The Post
Jumanji
Hostiles
Pitch Perfect
(Actually – I could be wrong about every single one of these this weekend.)