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Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/17

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Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/17

Postby undeadmonkey » December 15th, 2017, 1:03 am

...In which we contemplate how Disney has become Skynet... from the bathtub.

Atishoo! Excuse me, I m allergic to bullshit (they are all quotes from Fox movies that Disney will now do remakes of)

Firstly, I must apologize, I completely forgot about the column this week. Shryke messages and asks if i'm not doing the column and my first thought is, no, i just did one last month (I usually only do one weekend every other month). But then i remembered and i realized what that nagging feeling was in the back of my head. I had agreed to do one this month. I might have remembered earlier if the flu wouldn't have hit our household this week or if i haven't spent every waking hour preparing for our work christmas banquet tomorrow. but alas, here i am, achy and soaking in the bathtub drinking lots of whiskey, (did he just say bathtub? yup, yup he did) :lol:

Moving on. Last week was dominated by holdovers, as no one wanted to be the forgotten movie that came out the week before Star Wars. The limited release oscar hopefuls also held up well.

'Hey! It's me.' 'Prove it!' 'You're a dick.' 'Okay.'
(Two Characters)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Disney), there really isn't much left to say about it. It's expected to be huge, if you don't have it on your slate, you're probably hoping to lose. More than likely to open above $200M. It'll most likely not hit the numbers of TFA but then again, at that point everyone had been waiting 10 years for another star wars film, now we've had 3 in 3 years. There might be a few people, who'll wait for the 2nd or 3rd weekend to go catch the film, ( :arrow: like me) and i'm expecting a lot lower of a final number as well, about $600M-$650M, definitely nothing to sneeze at, but i'd be a bit surprised if it hit the $900M that TFA did. Unless Fin and Rey make a little side stop at Pandora. To be fair, it's also getting fantastic reviews, so maybe it can go a bit higher than my prediction.


Storyline
Having taken her first steps into the Jedi world, Rey joins Luke Skywalker on an adventure with Leia, Finn and Poe that unlocks mysteries of the Force and secrets of the past.

I’ll predict a $210M (3-day) OW and $650M overall.

Image

Let's all go for a spin!

Ferdinand (Fox, oh no wait, actually Disney), the one lonely and hopeful film that is trying to catch the people who get turned away from Star Wars being sold out. Speaking of such films, i found this little article interesting, https://io9.gizmodo.com/the-movies-that-had-the-hubris-to-open-the-same-week-as-1820890662. So crazy, Disney now owns Ferdinand. How funny would it be if Disney was all, 'how dare you open a movie against us' and Fox is all, 'hahaha' and Disney is all 'I'll buy you......' and here we all are. Honestly, i don't think all the implications of this buyout have even been thought of. So does anyone really think Disney is going to continue making Alien and Predator movies, or are they just going to sell of those franchises?

Storyline
After Ferdinand, a bull with a big heart, is mistaken for a dangerous beast, he is captured and torn from his home. Determined to return to his family, he rallies a misfit team on the ultimate adventure.

I’ll predict a $15M (3-day) OW and $95M overall.

Image


I did not start this war. I offered you peace. I showed you mercy. But now you're here. To finish us off... for good.

My predictions for the weekend of December 15 - 17 , 2017:


1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $210M
2. Ferdinand $15M
3. Coco $10M
4. Wonder $4M
5. The Disaster Artist $3.5M

PTA:
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. I Tonya
3. Call Me By Your Name
2. The Shape of Water
1. The Dark Hour


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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby Buscemi2 » December 15th, 2017, 2:26 am

The Disney/Fox sale will take a while to become official (look at all of the issues the Warner Bros. sale has run into). I'm expecting a bunch of things to happen in between before it's finalized (which likely won't be until late 2018/early 2019).

Interestingly enough, Disney adapted the Ferdinand story in the 40's as a short film. I have to wonder why they didn't think of expanding it themselves.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby Buscemi2 » December 15th, 2017, 4:28 am

The Last Jedi is looking at a $45 million Thursday, $12 million off the pace of The Force Awakens. Early word is not as positive either.

Star Wars fatigue or was The Force Awakens' hype too much to meet?

Meanwhile, I think The Disaster Artist is going to drop hard. Last two weekends were frontloaded and it lost its IMAX screens to The Last Jedi. I could easily see it dropping more than 60%, maybe even 70% (though it won't be the biggest of the week, Just Getting Started could drop 80% due to it losing over 300 theatres and most other places reducing it to 1-2 shows a day).
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby numbersix » December 15th, 2017, 4:48 am

The Last Jedi almost certainly won't hit the numbers of The Force Awakens. Just look at the amount of movies coming out next weekend. Still, a 200m opening and 600m cume is still stunning.

I don't have that much faith in Ferdinand this weekend. Everyone will be at Star wars, and some younger kids will make it here. But it should hold well over the hols. 13m opening and a 60m cume.

Boosch, you have been calling The disaster Artist front loaded every weekend and every weekend it was been performing way above expectations. It has surpassed the limited appeal we all thought it had. It won't drop any more than the average adult-oriented film this weekend, which will be around the 50% mark.

And no faith in the PTA titles this weekend, UDM? Me neither ;)

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi $215M
2. Ferdinand $13M
3. Coco $9.5M
4. Wonder $4M
5. The Disaster Artist $3M

PTA: Star Wars, I tonya, Call Me, Shape of Water, Darkest Hour
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby Buscemi2 » December 15th, 2017, 4:54 am

It's played better on Friday than on Saturday or Sunday both weekends (last week, the Friday share was 41.6%). A legs film does not play that way. The weekdays have been decent, sure, but its time is beginning to end. Look for it to be down to one show a day at most places by next week.

It's just another A24 film overperforming due to lack of competition and an overzealous fanbase that will watch anything with their name on it. They've become the new Miramax.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby transformers2 » December 15th, 2017, 9:30 am

While you're not completely offbase about A24's fanatical fanbase (although per usual with the takes you pedal as facts whenever someone mentions one of the many films you have a negative opinion of), this phenomenon appears to be limited to a small but very vocal group that only exists in the bowels of the internet), overperforming is an odd way to describe their films. They're a specialty studio that rarely releases their films into more than 500-800 theaters (The Disaster Artist became the 8th movie in their 5-year history to clear $10 mil at the domestic BO yesterday) and call me crazy, but I don't believe something like Good Time or The Killing of a Sacred Deer doing pretty well in a limited market qualifies as overperformance by any metric.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby numbersix » December 15th, 2017, 9:36 am

Quotes

'Hey! It's me.' 'Prove it!' 'You're a dick.' 'Okay.' - It's Xmen. 3 maybe. Or 2? Wolverine and Cyclops

I did not start this war. I offered you peace. I showed you mercy. But now you're here. To finish us off... for good. - - That's Caesar in War for the Planet of the Apes

Scully, You're not going to believe this - Mulder from The X-Files movie

Don't know the other 2.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby Shrykespeare » December 15th, 2017, 11:17 am

Atishoo! Excuse me, I m allergic to bullshit


This sounds very much like Will Smith's character from I, Robot.



Let's all go for a spin!

I ... think ... this is from the second Fantastic Four movie. The one with Surfer... uh, I mean Silver Surfer. Back when everyone knew who Jessica Alba was and slightly before Chris Evans became a household name.



And since UDM forgot, does anyone think Miss Kiet's Children or Permanent have any PTA possibilities?
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby JohnErle » December 15th, 2017, 11:26 am

Thanks, UDM. You just made me contemplate the prospect of a Disney-fied, JJ directed reboot of the X-Files. I'd better start storing up my fanboy rage now.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby numbersix » December 15th, 2017, 1:05 pm

Shrykespeare wrote:
And since UDM forgot, does anyone think Miss Kiet's Children or Permanent have any PTA possibilities?


Not really. The last spot is up for grabs as Darkest Hour expands and isn't making its mark. , but I'd be surprised if either of those titles take it.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby W » December 15th, 2017, 1:29 pm

Went to Last Jedi last night and there were a total of nine people (including my daughter and I) in our showing. The added our showing that day and forgot to list it online or on the board. There were more cars parked in the lot than I'd ever seen and I had all the room I needed. I think this is the first AMC screwup that's actually been in my favor.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby Walleye413 » December 15th, 2017, 5:20 pm

First 2 quotes are actually some of my favorites. I, Robot and Will Smith. Man I hope they don't remake that one.

And X-men the original for the second quote. In the battle at the Statue of Liberty.

So, Disney calls and asks your opinion on who should be the next Wolverine. You choose. . .
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby Buscemi2 » December 16th, 2017, 1:46 am

I think they should retire Wolverine. No one's ever going to top Jackman and there are so many other characters to choose from (especially since the Gambit movie is finally happening). Disney can afford to go beyond Fox's Core Four of Wolverine, Professor X, Magneto, and Mystique.

Meanwhile, The Last Jedi gets an A Cinemascore. With the venomous hate this has gotten from some (and disappointment from others), I figured it would have been an A-. Nothing on Ferdinand yet (expecting an A-/B+).
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby undeadmonkey » December 16th, 2017, 1:10 pm

the quotes are all correct
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 12/25/1

Postby Shrykespeare » December 16th, 2017, 10:54 pm

Friday Estimates

Star Wars: The Last Jedi, $104.8M
Ferdinand, $3.6M
Coco, $2.2M
Wonder, $1.5M
Justice League, $1.1M


Weekend Projections

Star Wars: The Last Jedi, $210M
Ferdinand, $12.4M (yikes)
Coco, $10M
Wonder, $5.1M
Justice League, $4M
Daddy's Home 2, $3.5M
Thor: Ragnarok, $3M
The Disaster Artist, $2.8M
Orient Express, $2.4M
The Star, $2M


PTA:

Star Wars, $49K
Shape of Water, $9.4K
Darkest Hour, $9K
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