Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

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One month left of this tumultuous year. After the typically large Thanksgiving weekend, we enter one of the last barren weekends. As most are catching up on the November releases or getting ready for Christmas/nursing Thanksgiving hangovers, we will have four limited releases on the docket.

Last Week

Winning the weekend was Pixar’s newest, Coco, which with the advantage of strong reviews and an A+ Cinemascore (only the third 2017 release to do so), took in $50.8 million ($72.9 million five-day). Second place was Justice League, shedding 56% to $41.1 million ($171.9 million total). Third was Wonder, the other A+ Cinemascore movie on the market, dropping just 18% to $22.7 million. Fourth was Thor: Ragnarok ($16.9 million) and fifth was Daddy’s Home 2 ($13.2 million). Roman J. Israel, Esq. continues to struggle in its wide expansion, making $4.4 million, good for a ninth-place finish while The Man Who Invented Christmas could only scribe in $1.4 million.

On the PTA front, Call Me by Your Name destroyed the competition with a $103,233 average in four theatres. Oscar buzz, combined with two hot leads, glowing reviews, and its pedigree behind the camera should keep it in the game in the weeks to come. Darkest Hour was no spring chicken in second with a $43,752 take in four theatres. Focus will expand slowly before a December 22nd wide expansion to help Gary Oldman’s awards chances. Coco and Justice League took third and fourth while Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri just keeps kicking as it got another point in its wide expansion (it adds more theatres this weekend), barely beating Wonder by $23.

This Week

No wide releases. Maybe I should just have everyone watch me drink a bottle of water or use my phone or watch TV instead. Nah, I won’t subject you to have kind of torture. I’m not Joe Swanberg. Oh, what’s that? The bell? That’s right, it’s time for…

Arthouse Class 101

This week’s class will cover four titles, three hoping to cash in on awards and a fourth getting a quick playoff before focusing on post-theatrical markets.

The Disaster Artist (A24) - James Franco is a prolific, if often annoying, figure. He never says no to a project while at the same time, he’s usually churning out two or three directorial projects that are often self-indulgent and slapped together (some of them remain unreleased, such as his other Hollywood movie, Zeroville). Not surprisingly, most of his films are total bombs but he’s still making them due to his various connections (this is why he’s still a thing while Edward Norton can’t get a job).

However, this project, originally set to be released by Warner Bros. (they still have international rights, as noted by the New Line logo appearing with A24’s), is apparently Franco’s breakthrough as a director. Based on Greg Sestero and Tom Bissell’s terrific non-fiction book (if you haven’t, read it), this film focuses on the difficult production of the 2003 cult classic The Room. This was a production where everything that could have gone wrong did. But unlike a Heaven’s Gate or Apocalypse Now, the $6 million production of The Room was not a case of ego, too much money, or acts of gods. No, it was purely the result of one man’s incompetence. James Franco plays that man, Tommy Wiseau. Dave Franco (yes, James’ brother) plays Greg Sestero, the co-star, and the rest of the cast is jam-packed with names and James’s friends (Seth Rogen, Alison Brie, Zac Efron, Jacki Weaver, Ari Graynor, Josh Hutcherson, June Diane Raphael, and a bunch of cameos). The film seems to be a loose adaptation of the book as scenes that were not in the book are depicted in the trailers and the aftermath, which is not told in the book, is shown.

Reviews have been glowing, a shock for a film directed by Franco, and there has been awards talk for Franco (no surprise, show business movies get eaten up by the voters). The film even won the grand prize at the San Sebastian Film Festival. But will this critical acclaim and cult appeal translate to box office success? The first week should be strong with the considerable fanbase of the original film but I can’t see it keeping momentum once it expands wide on December 8th.

I’m going to say that it will get between 4-6 PTA points and one Top 5 point if it’s lucky. A good pick if it’s a few dollars but don’t spend more than you need to.

The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight) – this might be the big one for the weekend, in terms of limited release titles. The new film from cult icon Guillermo del Toro shows his romantic side and in the process, has gotten his best reviews since Pan’s Labyrinth from 2006. In addition, the film won the Golden Lion at Venice. But how big? Analysis after the premise.

The film is set in the early 1960’s (1961?) and focuses on a mute janitor (Sally Hawkins) who works in a research facility in Baltimore. One day, a new item from the Amazon (Doug Jones) has come to the lab for the purpose of study. But of course, the janitor discovers the being and soon, they hit it off in an unlikely relationship. To continue their passionate affair, the two must evade capture and death in a cruel world that doesn’t understand them. Saying anything else might give away too much and it might be best to let the oft-shown (at least when I’ve been to the theatre) trailer explain things. Also starring in the film are Michael Shannon, Octavia Spencer, Richard Jenkins, and Michael Stuhlbarg.

As mentioned above, reviews have been fantastic and it’s expected to compete for a number of major awards (Fox will make sure it gets multiple Oscar nominations). Fox also moved the film up one week it hopes of building word of mouth and possibly, an expansion on Christmas (taking notes from another genre film that went on to get much awards praise, 2010’s Black Swan).

Opening in just two theatres, I expect PTA points in the double digits and a strong box office take between $45-50 million (maybe even more, as Black Swan hit the nine-digit mark). Take it in all of your lineups.

The Tribes of Palos Verdes (IFC) – remember that movie Helen Hunt directed a few years back where her character gets into surfing to better connect with her distant son? No? Well, the people who made Out Cold (that snowboarding movie that had Alan from The Hangover and Alana Bloom from Hannibal years before anyone knew who they were) sixteen years ago re-emerge with a similar sounding film involving a young girl who gets into surfing to escape her dysfunctional family. Maika Monroe and Jennifer Garner star.

This film, a refugee from the Relativity bankruptcy, has fallen into the hands of IFC, most likely in a quick day-and-date run before home video and pay cable allow it to make its money. The whole thing sounds like another forgettable mopey “unrealistic “modern” family” movie that was likely made for awards but won’t get jack crap from a bored audience. Avoid it unless you really need to fill that eighth spot.

No PTA points, most likely a few thou in box office receipts (if it reports).

Wonder Wheel (Amazon) – in recent years, Amazon has become a force in independent film. Though they’ve have some flops, they’ve also had some successes like Manchester by the Sea and The Big Sick and unlike most distributors, have shown that they are willing to take a chance or two by being a champion for established filmmakers to do ideas that get limited interest from an increasingly socially conservative film industry. And unlike Netflix, who likes to keep everything to themselves, they give the opportunity to let audiences savor their product any way they want. Now, Amazon enters a new field: theatrical distribution. So far, four films have been announced to be self-distributed by Amazon: You Were Never Really Here (February 23rd), Gringo (March 9th), Suspiria (TBA 2018), and this one, the new film from Woody Allen.

In what’s become an almost-yearly tradition (and Woody himself has said he might be still making them at 100), Woody Allen has told stories that often mix comedy, drama, and biographical elements that may not always work but usually have their defenders (yes, even Anything Else), as well as a decent international box office take. This one, Wonder Wheel, reads like a cross between the flashback sequences of Annie Hall (Alvy living under the rollercoaster at Coney Island) and an Americanized Match Point, focuses on the bored wife of a carousel operator (Kate Winslet) who becomes interested in an attractive lifeguard (Justin Timberlake). But soon, a third person enters the picture in the form of her estranged daughter (Juno Temple). As a result of this love rivalry, her life begins to fall apart. Jim Belushi also stars.

Reviews have been mixed thus far, which seems to be par the course for much of Allen’s newer output. But will it affect box office? The film should play extremely well in New York but in other markets, it might get lost in the shuffle of holiday releases. In addition, Amazon is untested in the distribution game and might have difficulty getting more than a few hundred theatres (the film is set to expand through December).

I will estimate between 5-7 PTA and under $8 million in total box office. But international grosses should allow Amazon’s break into distribution to enter the black.

Notable titles not in the game include Another WolfCop (Parade Deck), a sequel to the cult Canadian film, 24 Hours to Live (Saban), a thriller which serves mainly as a quick paycheck for Ethan Hawke, Love Beats Rhymes (Lionsgate Premiere), the long-on-the-shelf poetry drama from RZA, a one-week Oscar run of Loveless (Sony Pictures Classics), which will appear in the game in February, The New Radical (The Orchard), a well-reviewed documentary on hacktivists, and The Other Side of Hope (Janus), the new film from Aki Kaurismaki.

Box Office: Coco, Justice League, Wonder, My Lovely Horse, The Miracle is Mine
PTA: The Shape of Water, Wonder Wheel, The Disaster Artist (2-3 could flip-flop), Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour

Next week, Tranny will cover one wide release, Just Getting Started (eOne/Broad Green), and one limited release, I, Tonya (Neon). Craig?

Box Office Memories:

2007: Enchanted held onto first with a $16.4 million second weekend (52% drop). Beowulf and This Christmas traded spots with Beowulf advancing to second with $8.2 million while This Christmas fell to third with $7.9 million (56% drop). Staying in fourth was Hitman with $6 million (54% drop). The only wide opener, Awake, finished in fifth with $5.8 million.

On the limited scene, it was a battle of openers but The Savages won with a $37,964 average, a victory of over $12,000 against second place The Diving Bell and the Butterfly ($25,240 per theatre). The PTA numbers were so weak after those two that the reissue of a three-year-old movie (The Polar Express) took fourth.

1997: Thanksgiving weekend gave a battle between a remake and a sequel (yes, even then you could complain that nothing was original) and the remake (Flubber) pulled away after a close Wednesday and Thursday to take the weekend from Alien: Resurrection, $26.7 million ($35.9 million five-day) to $16.5 million ($25.8 million). Third place was Anastasia with $11.8 million (16% drop) while fourth was The Rainmaker with an impressive 0.1% drop ($10.6 million). Rounding out the top five was The Jackal with $7.6 million. Last weekend’s numero uno, Mortal Kombat: Annihilation dropped out of the top five with $6.8 million (60% drop).

On the PTA front, a documentary called Shooting Porn made $20,833 in a single theatre while IMAX documentary/roller coaster simulator Thrill Ride: The Science of Fun took second with $14,019 per theatre. Flubber finished fourth behind a five theatre Oscar run of Michael Winterbottom’s Welcome to Sarajevo.

1987: Three Men and a Baby stayed in first in a weekend with no new wide openers with an $8.4 million take (19% drop). Second was Planes, Trains and Automobiles with a $5.1 million take (28% drop). Third was Fatal Attraction in its twelfth week with $3 million while fourth and fifth were occupied by a return of Cinderella ($3 million) and The Running Man ($2.9 million).

As for those PTA’s, The Last Emperor trounced second place Three Men and a Baby with a $25,902 take in six theatres (most likely all 70mm engagements).
Last edited by Buscemi2 on November 27th, 2017, 9:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

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My Lovely Horse, The Miracle is Mine

What are these titles? I feel dumb...



Celebrity birthdays:

Karen Gillian turns 30 on 11/28 (and will appear as Nebula in Avengers 3)
David Mamet turns 70 on 11/30
Ridley Scott turns 80 on 11/30
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

Post by Buscemi2 »

It's a reference to the Father Ted episode "A Song for Europe". Father Ted and Father Dougal enter a song called "My Lovely Horse" into the Eurosong (think Eurovision) contest against Father Dick Byrne (Ted's rival) and his song "The Miracle is Mine".



I don't want to give away how it ends so you'll have to watch the show.

I'm surprised it's taken this long for others to notice when I'll put random references in where things are so insignificant or too close that I can't decide (I referenced The Big Lebowski and Family Guy last time).
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

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Always good to see a Father Ted reference!

And I agree ont he PTA order, Boosch. Although if Disaster Artist comes out in less than 10 screens it's going to do well. The buzz has been strong, the niche fans of The Room will flock to see this, so as a limited release it's a great pick.

As for Shape of Water, that indeed is the strongest pick this weekend, although I'd be surprised if it hit 40m. Having chatted to a few folk who have seen it, there's a risk that it's not exciting/scary enough to please genre audiences (which Pan's Labyrinth did) and yet despite being a romance it's too weird to pull in a mainstream crowd. I can see it hitting high teens or early 20s.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

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Did anyone see Black Swan hitting $100 million? I think The Shape of Water is really going to take off despite its themes.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

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The Disaster Artist is opening in at least 2 theaters in Boston this weekend, so I'm guessing it'll be opening in 20-25 theaters.

As for the Shape of Water, I believe its a true wild card at the mainstream BO. I wouldn't be surprised if it crapped out at $15-20 mil or legged out to 100+ mil.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

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How well did Pan's Labyrinth do?
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

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Shrykespeare wrote:How well did Pan's Labyrinth do?
$37.6 mil, which is about $44.8 mil after inflation
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

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transformers2 wrote:
Shrykespeare wrote:How well did Pan's Labyrinth do?
$37.6 mil, which is about $44.8 mil after inflation
Those are about the numbers I expect from Shape of Water. Possibly $60M if it gains traction. I think it's too far out there to be anywhere close to $100M.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

Post by Buscemi2 »

It looks like Coco may hold better than your typical Thanksgiving openers. It's getting IMAX screens this weekend.

Meanwhile, Marshall is getting a relaunch into 650 theatres. Not sure why (maybe to get some buzz for Boseman and Gad's performances?).
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Good read, nicely scribed.

Hmm, im on the fence about Shape of Water. I hope it breaks out to 75m+, but i just dont see it making more than $50m
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

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Friday Estimates:

Coco, $6.3M
Justice League, $4.6M
Wonder, $3.6M
Thor: Ragnarok, $2.7M
Daddy's Home 2, $2.1M
Murder on the Orient Express, $2.0M
Three Billboards, $1.4M
Lady Bird, $1.2M
Bad Moms Christmas, $1.1M




Weekend Projections:

Coco, $27M
Justice League, $16.5M
Wonder, $13.5M
Thor: Ragnarok, $10M
Daddy's Home 2, $7M
Murder on the Orient Express, $6.8M
Three Billboards, $4.6M
Lady Bird, $4.2M
The Star, $4M
Bad Moms Christmas, $3.5M
Roman Israel, $2.1M


PTA:

Shape of Water, $85K
Disaster Artist, $68K



So - Coco hit $100M in nine days. Not too shabby.

Justice League will hit $200M on Monday or Tuesday.

Wonder will hit $100M next weekend.

Thor: Ragnarok will hit $300M next weekend.

Not sure whether Orient Express or Daddy's Home 2 have enough left in the tank to reach $100M, but $90M is a lock.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

Post by Buscemi2 »

And next week should have another good hold for Coco. The Frozen short is getting dropped from all prints due to complaints from audiences and exhibitors, leading to extra showtimes for it.

I have to wonder if that (surprisingly high) Disaster Artist number is indeed due to fans of The Room going opening weekend (I guess this also makes The Room mainstream now). I still can't see it holding wide (even with Just Getting Started basically getting dumped in under 2,000 theatres).

Maybe I should pitch that Neil Breen biopic idea I had (I was thinking of Timothy Hutton as everyone's favorite conspiracy theorist architect turned filmmaker) and hope that the money will roll in. ;)
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

Post by W »

I wouldn’t say The Room is mainstream outside of the larger cities on the coasts. It’s expected people in LA, New York, etc with larger theater/film communities will know it, but I’m not convinced it’ll play well in my neck of the woods or when TDA is in 50 theaters in the Boston area instead of 2.

If it plays well here It’ll be because the promos make it look like an Apatow production.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: December 1st-3rd

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W wrote:If it plays well here It’ll be because the promos make it look like an Apatow production.
In what way, W?
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