Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/17

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undeadmonkey
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Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/17

Post by undeadmonkey »

...In where we guess which pixar character said which quote.

'He touched the butt' (an easy one for ya)

Oh no, who or where to lay the blame of DCEU's latest blunder? As i said before, it's a strange movie world, where a $90M+ opening is considered a failure. As well as JL being #10 top opening in November ever. Regardless, the biggest deal maker or breaker is where JL will end up at it's total. Maybe people are finally getting sick of superhero movies? No? just wishful thinking on my part then?

Moving on. Wonder was the shining star over the weekend and will probably continue to shine all the way through Christmas. Kind of reminds me of The Blind Side, opening above expectations and just beating those every weekend. This weekend will be the real test, if it improves in numbers from last week like some are calling, Who thinks Wonder can surpass $200M? I do, kudos to whoever picked it up in the Full Year League.

The Star beat predictions, but only slightly. I guess that's what you get for spending all your budget on a roster of b-list celebrity, you have no money left for advertisements. To be fair, it made back half of it's budget on the first weekend. I bet JL wishes it could say that.

'we're dead! we're dead! we survived, but we're dead!'

It seems all other studios were afraid to go up against an undead Pixar film, Coco (Disney/Pixar). I'm not sure why though, up till the last few months the main aura around the film and it's perception in the public eye has been about it's apparent similarities to Fox's The Book of Life and who can forget about Disney's misguided attempts at trying to trademark 'The Day of the Dead' (hence the name Coco). However, it ended up being the only wide release this friendsgiving weekend and Disney has worked overtime to try and make it look unique and i'm sure the monstrous box office in Mexico is helping drum up interest in america's Latino communities. Which to be fair is a market that isn't served a lot unfortunately. Altogether, Coco is looking to beat expectations and should come in on the higher end of this years top grossing films, maybe even taking Despicable Me 3 down for Top Grossing Animated film of the year. So if you didn't wast your money on JL and got money to spare, Coco would make a nice anchor on your slate.


Storyline
Despite his family's baffling generations-old ban on music, Miguel (voice of newcomer Anthony Gonzalez) dreams of becoming an accomplished musician like his idol, Ernesto de la Cruz (voice of Benjamin Bratt). Desperate to prove his talent, Miguel finds himself in the stunning and colorful Land of the Dead following a mysterious chain of events. Along the way, he meets charming trickster Hector (voice of Gael García Bernal), and together, they set off on an extraordinary journey to unlock the real story behind Miguel's family history..

I’ll predict a $60M (3-day) OW and $250M overall.

Image


'I have just met you and I love you'


There are a 3 limited releases this weekend, 2 today actually and one will open on Friday. I usually lump them all together, but at least two are vying for Oscar Gold, so i think they deserve a bit more attention. One thing though that i would note for all releases this weekend, is that the next two weeks are fairly barren as far as high profile releases go. Which gives these movies a chance to grap a few extra PTA points before the heavy hitters arrive on December 15th.

The one with the highest profile being Call Me By Your Name(Sony Classic). It premiered in Sundance almost a year ago and has probably hit almost every festival of note since. It's gotten praise on almost every aspect of film making and acting and i'm sure we'll be hearing much more about the movie until Febraury's Oscars. What it will do for your slates is a bit harder to guess. However i would say there is more upside to this gamble and I'm looking forward to seeing what it will do for my FY slate.

Storyline
It's the summer of 1983 in the north of Italy, and Elio Perlman (Timothée Chalamet), a precocious 17- year-old American-Italian, spends his days in his family's 17th century villa transcribing and playing classical music, reading, and flirting with his friend Marzia (Esther Garrel). Elio enjoys a close relationship with his father (Michael Stuhlbarg), an eminent professor specializing in Greco-Roman culture, and his mother Annella (Amira Casar), a translator, who favor him with the fruits of high culture in a setting that overflows with natural delights. While Elio's sophistication and intellectual gifts suggest he is already a fully-fledged adult, there is much that yet remains innocent and unformed about him, particularly about matters of the heart. One day, Oliver (Armie Hammer), a charming American scholar working on his doctorate, arrives as the annual summer intern tasked with helping Elio's father. Amid the sun-drenched splendor of the setting, Elio and Oliver discover the heady beauty of awakening desire over the course of a summer that will alter their lives forever.


Next we have Darkest Hour (Focus Features), It hasn't been as critically acclaimed as Call Me, but almost all reviews have noted Gary Oldmans acting and the oscars do love to give their little guy away to actors who can disappear into their roles. (As long as it's not andy serkis). It's not a bad choice for your slates, but unlike Call Me By your Name, The Darkest Hour seems to have a ceiling as to how high it will be able to go.

Storyline
During the early days of World War II, the fate of Western Europe hangs on the newly-appointed British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, who must decide whether to negotiate with Hitler, or fight on against incredible odds.


Lastly we have The Man on Invented Christmas (BleeckerStreet) debuting in 600+ theaters. Not good for PTA and unless people are really clamoring for a movie on the writer and inventor of Scrooge and the The Christmas Carol. I highly doubt it'll go anywhere in Box office either.

Storyline
The journey that led to Charles Dickens' creation of "A Christmas Carol," a timeless tale that would redefine the holiday.

'What's poo-ber-tea?'

My predictions for the weekend of November 24 - 26 , 2017:


1. Coco $60M
2. Justice League $43M
3. Wonder $26M
4. Thor Ragnarok $18M
5. Murder on the Orient Express $12M

PTA:
5. Coco
4. Call Me By Your Name
3. The Darkest Hour
2. Three Billboards
1. Justice LEague


Next week we have ... Well not much, except a few limited releases. Really looking forward to The Shape of Water though.

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numbersix
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by numbersix »

Love your guessing game, UDM.
First is Finding Nemo, can't remember the character
Second is the Incredibles, it's the boy who said it, right?
Third is Doug in Up - one of my favourite Pixar movie lines ever
Next is Disgust in Inside Out
Don't know the last. Guessing Cars?

Anyway, agreed on Coco (which is a much better title. Do families want to go to a film with dead in its name?). It'll beat Moana by the end of the day.

On the PTA front, Call Me By Your Name will top this weekend, and do well next. Next actually has 3 high profile limited releases, all of which should pick up points (though Wonder Wheel is a question mark considering it's an Amazon release), so competition will be tough.

1. Coco $57M (75m 5-day)
2. Justice League $45M
3. Wonder $22M
4. Thor Ragnarok $14M
5. Daddy's Home 2 $11M

PTA: Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Coco, Justice League, 3 Billboards

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

Wonder Wheel is Woody Allen though. New York numbers will be monster, even with the mixed reviews.
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Walleye413
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by Walleye413 »

I can't think of the last quote either. It's not Wall-E is it?

I'll be quite interested in Coco's numbers. How much is attributed to a very underserved Latino audience, how much to the Frozen short at the beginning, how much to it actually being a pretty decent movie. In the end, I think and hope it clears $250 million since I got it in the FY draft. And if Wonder hits $150 I'll take that too :) It does feel like The Blind Side, actually. It's a tough year for the Oscars, I'll be curious if Wonder gets a nod or two. The Golden Globes should push it a little bit.

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm convinced Wonder will get a couple of nominations. Lionsgate's been a player in the awards lately (they got freaking Hacksaw Ridge nominated for Best Picture) and the Academy tends to nominate one or two financially successful movies. It will certainly get nominated for Best Makeup (though I believe It to be the favorite in this category) and Tremblay's been due for a nomination.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

Coco got an A+ Cinemascore (has any full year lineup ever had three A+ Cinemascores?). Meanwhile, the re-edited Roman J. Israel, Esq. could only manage a B.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Coco - 3,987
Roman Israel, Esq. - 1,669
Man Who Invented Xmas - 626
Darkest Hour - 4
Call Me By Your Name - 4



Celebrity Birthdays:

Marlo Thomas turned 80 on 11/21
Mark Ruffalo turned 50 on 11/22
Colin Hanks turns 40 on 11/24


#1. Nemo - it was one of the kid-fishes who said it.
#2. Incredibles - Dash
#3. Up - Dug
#4. Inside Out - Disgust
#5. A Bug's Life - Hopper (Kevin Spacey)


And the kudos if Wonder hits $200M will go to Boosh, who was roundly jeered for picking Wonder in... what was it, the fourth round?
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

Third. It more than makes up for my pick of My Little Pony in the fourth round. Lesson learned: don't pick movies based on TV shows with bizarre fans (which is why I expect the Bob's Burgers movie to bomb in 2020) and go with movies that tested through the roof.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Does anyone know if and when Darkest Hour will go wide? I really want to see it, but I don't know if it will grace my local Harkins or AMC.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

December 22nd, but it should hit Phoenix a little earlier (Focus is planning a slow rollout).
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Thanks, Boosh.


Wednesday Estimates

Coco, $13.2M
Justice League, $10.4M
Wonder, $6M
Thor: Ragnarok, $4M
Daddy's Home 2, $2.7M
Murder on the Orient Express, $2.5M
The Star, $1.6M
A Bad Moms Christmas, $950K
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, $786K
Lady Bird, $758K
Roman J. Israel Esq., $755K
The Man Who Invented Christmas, $200K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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numbersix
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by numbersix »

Buscemi2 wrote:Third. It more than makes up for my pick of My Little Pony in the fourth round. Lesson learned: don't pick movies based on TV shows with bizarre fans (which is why I expect the Bob's Burgers movie to bomb in 2020) and go with movies that tested through the roof.
True that for all of the above

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by transformers2 »

Buscemi2 wrote:Third. It more than makes up for my pick of My Little Pony in the fourth round. Lesson learned: don't pick movies based on TV shows with bizarre fans (which is why I expect the Bob's Burgers movie to bomb in 2020) and go with movies that tested through the roof.
Yep because Million Dollar Arm was a total slam dunk a few years back.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

There are exceptions.

Million Dollar Arm failed because Disney missed why Life of Pi was a hit (and in the process killed Suraj Sharma's career) and made the most cliche white savior narrative possible instead of, you know, focusing on the people trying to make it in baseball and improve their lives (I remember saying that the only director who could have made this movie work was Ken Loach, that might still be true). It also didn't help that said white character was near unlikable.

Still made more money than My Little Pony though.
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undeadmonkey
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column...: New Releases of 11/22/1

Post by undeadmonkey »

Correct on the guesses.

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