Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye413
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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by Walleye413 »

Are the dark days over? Could the movie doldrums of 2017 finally be coming to an end? Thor had a fantastic second weekend (especially for a Marvel movie) and Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express both overperformed expectations. But this weekend might be the real tale of the tape on that. We have multiple movies that should (emphasis on should) make some noise at the Box Office, and in your hearts. But will they? Will they really mark a triumphant ending to an otherwise boring movie year? Of that, I’m not so convinced.

The big dog is, of course, Justice League. After the success of The Avengers, DC has been rushing to get this Movie done and capitalize on their Superhero stable. And rush they did – churning out bad movie after bad movie. I mean, really, I’m a pretty easy critic and Superman v. Batman was one of the worst comic book movies I’ve seen. Which was the same opinion of everyone else who saw it as well. And then along came Wonder Woman. DC finally pulled off a good movie (in the non-Nolan world.) Is there hope for Justice League? Will it be two good DC movies in a row? I’m guessing yes. The behind the scenes tragedy surrounding Zack Snyder’s family led to Joss Whedon coming in to help finish the movie, and the hope is that the combined powers of those two leads to something better than either could have done on their own. In the end, though, it’s just going to be big. How big will depend on if it’s more Wonder Woman or more Suicide Squad. I’m guessing Gal Gadot saves the day again. Justice League will open to $150 million besting Thor and the gang from just a few weekends ago. It’ll have a bit of a steeper dropoff than Thor, however, and they’ll probably end up near the same total in the end (but that’s more due to Coco and Star Wars.) I think a total near $400 million isn’t out of the question – I’ll say $375 million just for kicks. That’ll also get you 20ish top 5 points, PTA points, and an IMDB score that won’t hurt you. You had to pick Thor, Star Wars, or this to have a chance in all leagues this season. Hope you made the right choice.

The next movie is one every single one of you should see – even if you don’t have it on your slates. It’s Wonder, and it’s easily one of the hardest movies to pull off this year. We’ve all seen this movie done as an After-school special, and we’ve seen it done with angst and dramatics. But Wonder is better than that – and deserves a broad audience. Based on the fantastic book of the same name, Wonder is the story of Auggie, a bright 10 year old with a facial differences that have required multiple surgeries and leave him looking to stand out, instead of blend in. His parents make the choice to send him to Middle school after years of home-schooling, knowing that they can’t, and shouldn’t, hide him from the world forever. The movie is directed by the wonderful Stephen Chbosky (Perks of Being a Wall-flower). By all accounts, it’s honest, challenging, and inspiring. Every kid I know who’s read this book has loved it. Early reviews for the movie are ecstatic. But will people choose to go watch this when they can see Superheroes save the world, or watch Will Ferrel and Mark Wahlberg repeat their shtick? I’m not convinced. I really hope so, again, this is the type of movie that when done well absolutely deserves an audience. I’m just not sure I have that much faith in America to go out of their way to find it.

Wonder will make it based on word of mouth. I’m hoping it will open to 20 million or so and have a fantastic 4 or 5X multiplier, ala sleeper hits like Hidden Figures, or La La Land. This movie should make 100 million dollars and inspire other writers and filmmakers to try the same. But, I don’t think it will. Realistically, it’ll hit 60 million, get you a few Top five and PTA points (maybe 7 and 4). If it does way better, I’ll be happy. But I’m not sure I can recommend you put in on all your slates.

Our next movie should also do well. It’s a Kids movie, set around the actual story of Christmas at Christmas time. Synergy at it’s best. With so many movies that come out during this season that try to capitalize on Christmas, it’s rare for a Christian movie to try and do the same. The Star is one of the first ones I can remember in a long time, so it should be a winner. And yet, I’m almost sure it’s not going to be. My family is the target audience for this one, and yet we’ve hardly seen any advertising for it. Most families will see one of the two Superhero flicks, or Wonder, or just wait until Coco next weekend. The Star is going to barely make any noise, it might get into the high teens for Box Office, and get you a few Top 5 points. That result won’t get you very fare on your slates, and it will send Christian filmmakers back to making God’s not Dead 4. Sigh.

On the Indie front, we have another film that should be a hit, but I think it’s going to get swamped by the Indie darlings of the last two weeks. Is there a better pedigree for a movie than Denzel Washington and Dan Gilroy? Those two together scream movie cred! But, by all accounts, Roman J. Israel Esq. was middling at best at TIFF. The spin on that is that it was intentional. They did a quick cut of the movie to show there so they could get feedback and make their edits for the real release. They’ve made a number of cuts, moved scenes around, and now they’re quite excited about the finished product. But will it matter? To gain traction it has to be as good as Lady Bird and Three Billboards. Again, with those two names at the top, it should happen. But I’m not sure it will. I think this is a rare mis-fire for Denzel. It might still get you 3 or 4 PTA points before it goes wide next weekend, but unless the reviews are stellar this will not duplicate the success of The Fence from last year. I’d avoid it, and save your dollars elsewhere.

Leaving us with just Song of Granite – Ireland’s submission for the Academy Awards this year. With that kind of backing I’m sure it’s quite good. And being such a niche film (a semi-documentary on the life of Joe Heaney, the audience for this film will love it. I simply have no idea how big that audience is. Having loved Sing Street, The Commitments, Once, and other music based movies I’d check out Song of Granite personally at some point. But I’m not putting it on my slates. It could get a point for the game, but it’s IMDB score is below 7 and for your money you can do better.

Well, that’s it. Next week we have Coco, which I am desperately hoping becomes the next Inside/Out so I don’t get dropped down to the B League in the Full Year draft. Plus a few more Oscar Contenders. Until next time: Au Revoir from Marseilles.

Top 5
Justice League
Wonder
Thor
Daddy’s Home
The Star

PTA
Justice League
Roman J. Israel
Three Billboards
Lady Bird
Wonder

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numbersix
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by numbersix »

Great column. I would say you're too high on Justice League. Early reviews are not good, although it'll be liked more than Batman Vs Superman. But it'll play similarly, opening high and falling rapidly. Wonnder Woman is the only thing that will stop this from being a bomb, but I don't see it making 150m this weekend. I suspect it'll be more like 130m and close at about 320m.

I have Wonder on some slate. Should drop it as the competition is high. It'll hold well, but that may not be enough. We'll see. As for The Star, I figure kids won't knonw it's a Christian film, but the lack of marketing is a problem, almost as much as Coco.

As for Roman J. Israel, I think that'll earn a lot of PTA cred this weekend. I think it'll get 5 points, but be one of Denzil's lower-earning films when it attempts to go wider.

Song of Granite. Its producer, Alan, is one of the nicest guys in the film industry. But it didn't make a dime in Ireland so it won't in the US.


Top 5
1. Justice League - $130m
2. Thor - $26m
3. Daddy's Home - $14m
4. Orien Express - $14m
5. Wonder - $13m

PTA: Roman J. Israel, Justice League, Three Billboards, Lady Bird, Thor

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

I'm hoping Wonder makes a mint. If it does, you can bet I'll be pushing HARD for some studio to accept Joshua's Island as an adaptable literary work.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by undeadmonkey »

I think Justice League might be in trouble. I've learned my lesson from Blade Runner, once you start seeing Fandango numbers, they are reaching at straws.

Also i find it odd that reviews were embargoed till today which is late for such a high profile release and to further that, Rotten Tomatoes wont show an aggregate for the movie till tomorrow. I hadn't realized that WB partly owned RT.

Still it should have a decent opening weekend, i just expect it'll have horrible legs, ala superman vs batman.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

I know this isn't till next week, but does anyone know if and when Darkest Hour will be released wide?

Same question for The Shape of Water.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by Walleye413 »

Shrykespeare wrote:I'm hoping Wonder makes a mint. If it does, you can bet I'll be pushing HARD for some studio to accept Joshua's Island as an adaptable literary work.
I can back this :)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

Thor didn't have great pre-sales either. Here, there wasn't a sellout until the day of advance screenings.

Early word on Justice League's been mixed (50 on Metacritic) but so was Batman v. Superman and that still made millions. The audiences don't care about the reviews (especially since a lot of them have caught on to how these films are reviewed), they just want their heroes on-screen.

In addition, it's reportedly going to be the last Zack Snyder entry as Whedon was brought on to handle things, so there is some optimism in the DCEU community.

In other news, Coco is now the highest-grossing film of all-time in Mexico. This might be a bigger film here that we thought.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Justice League - 4,051
Wonder - 3,096
The Star - 2,837
Roman J. Israel, Esq. - 4
Sweet Virginia - 1



Next week:

Coco - 3,800
Roman J. Israel, Esq. - 1,500
Darkest Hour - 4




Celebrity Milestone Birthdays:

Joe Mantegna turned 70 on 11/13 (He'll always be Fat Tony on The Simpsons to me)
Steve Zahn turned 50 on 11/13 (remember him in Reality Bites?)
Lisa Bonet turned 50 on 11/16 (former Cosby kid, and now she's married to Aquaman!) (one N, not two)
Maggie Gyllenhaal turned 40 on 11/16 (she has her haters, but I'm not one of them)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

Steve was also Bad Ape.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by W »

Steve Zahn has a quirky, nerdy enthusiasm that makes everything he's in a little better.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by transformers2 »

Buscemi2 wrote:Steve was also Bad Ape.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

Bad Ape was far from being like Jar Jar. Dustin from Stranger Things is more Jar Jar than Bad Ape (never have I wanted to kill a character from a TV show more than that annoying kid).

And it looks like you can stop questioning me about taking Wonder in the third round. $30-32 million opening weekend estimate (and I'm hoping for that A+ Cinemascore too).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by transformers2 »

I found Bad Ape to be obnoxious, ill-fitting source of "comic" relief in Apepocalypse Now a la Jar Jar Binks. I'm glad that you were delighted by his antics.

As for Wonder, congrats on its success and thank you again for helping It and its $300+ mil gross slip to me ;) .
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

No one saw It coming. Of course, it helped that Inhumans turned out to be a complete disaster that broke the Marvel streak (end result: $1.5 million and a possible one-and-done series, I'm glad I dropped it for Eastwood's newest) and Warner Bros. was able to penetrate the "afraid of clowns" market.

Of course, I snatched Girls Trip from your dirty paws.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 11/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Yes! Joshua's Island: The Movie, coming soon (well, 2022) to theaters near you!!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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