Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

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In an era where blockbusters regularly fail on American soil, Marvel Studios remains one of Hollywood's few reliable cash cows. That prowess was once again on display this past weekend as Thor: Ragnarok set the box office ablaze.

Ragnarok gave Marvel its 3rd 100+ mil opener of 2017 with a fantastic $122.8 mil debut. This opening is especially impressive when you consider that Thor has been the least bankable Avenger (the prior two entries in the series netted less than $400 mil combined stateside) since the MCU launched in 2008. With its excellent reviews/WOM, Ragnarok appears to have a pretty good shot of clearing $350 mil by the end of its run.

As expected, A Bad Moms Christmas beat out the sad pack of October holdovers (Jigsaw, Boo! 2, Geostorm for the #2 spot. The sequel to 2016's surprise hit got off to a decent start ($16.8 3-day, $21.3 5-day) for a counterprogramming option and while stiffer competition will likely prevent it from matching or exceeding the $113 mil gross of its predecessor, the $28 mil production should still be able to hold well enough to turn a decent profit for STX.


Wide Releases:
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R-rated A Bad Moms Christmas kicked off Hollywood's pretty deep 2017 Christmas movie slate last week. Now, the family-oriented Daddy's Home 2 (Paramount) will hope to generate some holiday cheer over a month before JC's birthday. In the sequel to 2015's surprise hit, mild-mannered dweeb Brad (Will Ferrell) and hard-nosed man's man Dusty (Mark Wahlberg) have gotten past their initial differences and become good friends. This seemingly perfect dad/stepdad relationship suddenly gets tested when their fathers (John Lithgow and Mel Gibson) decide to visit and subsequently ruin Christmas for everyone around them. As all of us here painstakingly know, trying to gauge how a non-superhero/animated sequel will do has turned into an incredibly aggravating exercise. In 2017, there's been unlikely success stories (John Wick: Chapter 2, Annabelle Creation), surprising failures (Transformers: The Last Knight,xXx: Return of Xander Cage) and a whole lot of mixed bags (Kingsman: The Golden Circle, POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales, War for the Planet of the Apes). While there isn't really a good comparison to Daddy's Home 2 among this year's cluster of sequels, I have feeling its destined to enter the mixed bag category. The original wasn't exactly beloved (B+ Cinemascore, 6.1 IMDb) and given the resistance audiences have shown for "retreads" outside of the superhero/Disney umbrella lately, there might not be enough here to differentiate this from its predecessor. That being said, Daddy's Home 2 will undoubtedly benefit from the current void in the family film market and a relatable premise that stresses the importance of family. I'm expecting Daddy's Home 2 to net an OW of $22 mil, 5-6 top 5 points, 1-2 PTA points, an IMDb score of 5.9 and a final gross between $85-100 mil. Its price tag is reasonable enough to consider putting it on your slate ($15 ULT/$16 BO in Mini Super R1), but I think Pitch Perfect 3 and the film I'm about to discuss offer higher upside for a similar price.


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43 years after Sidney Lumet first adapted Agatha Christie's beloved novel, Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) is returning to the big screen. This star-studded reboot tells the story of famed Belgian detective Horian Peirot (Kenneth Branagh, who also directed) having his vacation cut short when a gruesome murder occurs aboard the train he's traveling on. With the Orient Express halted due to engine damage, Peirot puts on his sleuthing hat and tries to discover which passenger (or passengers) is responsible for this heinous crime. After spending several months questioning whether or not people gave a shit about the 2nd theatrically-released adaptation of a nearly 100-year old murder mystery novel, I recently decided to hop aboard the "Murder on the Orient Express is the potential sleeper hit of the fall" bandwagon. The marketing campaign has been strong, its currently tracking ahead of Daddy's Home 2 and most importantly, its the first piece of accessible, adult-aimed entertainment to hit theaters in quite some time. I'm expecting this old-school whodunit to pick up a solid OW of $25 mil before legging out to a $100+ mil/8 Top 5/2-3 PTA/6.7 IMDb finish. If you have space for it in between the season's indisputable heavy-hitters, Murder on the Orient Express should prove to be a high quality pickup.


Limited Release:
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It's pretty telling that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight) has the limited release market to itself this weekend. No other studio felt comfortable putting out their prime indie fare this weekend (A24 originally slated Lady Bird for this weekend, but bumped it up to the 3rd in late-September) and looking at its resume, it's pretty easy to understand why. With its People's Choice Award win at Toronto and Best Screenplay win at Venice, Martin McDonuagh's (In Bruges, Seven Psychopaths) dark comedy centered around a mother (Frances McDormand) that clashes with the local police department after she publicly criticizes them for failing to solve the murder of her daughter has cemented itself as the closest thing 2017 has to an awards season frontrunner. Given its sensational pedigree, Three Billboards seems destined to become a late-year indie stud in our game. I'm expecting it to unseat the aforementioned Lady Bird as the year's top PTA opener to-date, pick up at least an additional 3 PTA points before it expands wide in a few weeks and possibly turn into a BO winner if the WOM/awards buzz ends up being as strong as anticipated. With its guaranteed PTA production and potential BO appeal, this is pretty much a must-have in both formats.


Weekend Projections
1.Thor: Ragnarok $58 mil
2.Murder on the Orient Express $25 mil
3.Daddy's Home 2 $22 mil
4.A Bad Moms Christmas $9.5 mil
5.Jigsaw $3 mil

PTA: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Lady Bird, Thor: Ragnarok, Murder on the Orient Express, Daddy's Home 2

Tune in next week when Walleye assesses the fates of DC's long-awaited team-up flick Justice League, Denzel Washington-led legal drama Roman J. Israel Esq., guaranteed $600 mil earner Wonder, a couple of indie flicks (Sweet Virginia,Song of Granite) that are looking to steal some PTA points from the awards contenders and last but not least, The Star, which tells the true story of how a collection of goofy animals helped give birth to Jesus Christ.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

Post by numbersix »

I think Orient Express is now tracking lower than Daddy 2 - late teens vs early 20s. That said, the older audience are kinda harder to track accurately. Still, neither seem like great options to me, and if they open in the low 20s I'd be shocked if they came close to the $100m mark - that's a 5x multiple! I think they'll both end up in the 60-70m range. Murder has the cast but not the strong reviews it needs. But it will hold well.

Will be really interesting to see how 3 Billboards performs, whether it will break out. I have a feeling it will, just because there's nothing else on the indie circuit, besides Lady Bird, that has that potential this year.

Weekend Projections
1.Thor: Ragnarok - $55 mil
2.Daddy's Home 2 $24 mil
3.Murder on the Orient Express - $22 mil
4.A Bad Moms Christmas $10 mil
5.Jigsaw $3 mil

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

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It will be interesting to see how Three Billboards plays outside the big cities. Dark comedy (though the Foreign Press apparently seems to be convinced it's a drama and Get Out's a comedy) is a hard sell and movies with ties to current events have proven to be box office poison as of late (I have a feeling this is going to hurt The Post despite the big names involved). Here, I'm expecting a strong opening before a fast drop.

And The Shape of Water's going to break out. Guillermo del Toro has an audience (his last six films have made at least $30 million).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

Post by numbersix »

Although Crimson Peak, which was a wide release, was a giant flop.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

Post by Shrykespeare »

I think it's Hercule Poirot, not Horian Periot. Nice try though. :)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

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Shrykespeare wrote:I think it's Hercule Poirot, not Horian Periot. Nice try though. :)
I wish I could I say that I'm surprised that I managed to fuck that up :lol:
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Daddy's Home 2 - 3,541
Murder on the Orient Express - 3,341
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 4



Next week
Justice League - n/a
Wonder - 3,000+
The Star - 3,000
Roman J. Israel, Esq. - 4
Sweet Virginia - 1






Celebrity birthdays:

Christopher Knight turned 60 on 11/7 (Peter Brady is SIXTY?? Fuck I'm old)
Courtney Thorne Smith turned 50 on 11/8 (Alison Parker is FIFTY?? Fuck I'm old)
Michael Jai White turns 50 on 11/10 (and still lookin' badass)
Scoot McNairy turns 40 on 11/11 (not a half-bad character actor)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

Post by Buscemi2 »

Still disappointed Black Dynamite 2 never got made (sure, there was the Adult Swim series and a graphic novel apparently based on the intended screenplay but still).
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

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Friday Estimates

Thor: Ragnarok, $18.3M
Daddy's Home 2, $10.9M
Murder on the Orient Express, $10.7M
A Bad Moms Christmas, $4.1M
Jigsaw, $1.1M




Weekend Projections:

Thor: Ragnarok, $57M
Murder on the Orient Express, $28.1M
Daddy's Home 2, $27M
A Bad Moms Christmas, $11.8M
Jigsaw, $3.3M
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, $1.9M
Geostorm, $1.4M
Happy Death Day, $1.3M



PTA:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, $72.5K
Lady Bird, $27K
Thor: Ragnarok, $14K
Murder on the Orient Express, $8K
Daddy's Home 2, $7.5K
Last Flag Flying, $7K
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Thor: Ragnarok, $56.6M
4 points - Daddy's Home 2, $30.0M
3 points - Murder on the Orient Express, $28.2M
2 points - A Bad Moms Christmas, $11.5M
1 point - Jigsaw, $3.4M
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, $2.1M
Geostorm, $1.5M
Blade Runner 2049, $1.4M
Happy Death Day, $1.3M
Lady Bird, $1.2M


PTA:
5 points - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, $80K
4 points - Lady Bird, $33.7K
3 points - Thor: Ragnarok, $13.9K
2 points - Murder on the Orient Express, $8.4K
1 point - Daddy's Home 2, $8.4K
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

Post by Chienfantome »

Daddy's Home and Orient Express both do very solid business, better than expected.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

Post by Buscemi2 »

I expect Murder to drop quickly though (outside of the two theatres showing the 70mm version). Cinemascore was only a B and it seems that audiences have finally caught on to how much of a hack Michael Green is.

Daddy's Home 2 may drop harder than expected despite the A- Cinemascore. The onslaught of family-friendly titles (at least one's gotten far better reviews and another should as well) will hurt it.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

Post by Shrykespeare »

Daddy's Home 2 had an A- Cinemascore but 16% on RT? How exactly is Cinemascore determined, anyway?
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

Post by Buscemi2 »

Audience polls on opening night. It's usually the strongest indicator of how a film will play in future weeks (though exceptions have occurred).
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/10

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Thor: Ragnarok, $57.1M (10)
4 points - Daddy's Home 2, $29.7M (4)
3 points - Murder on the Orient Express, $28.7M (3)
2 points - A Bad Moms Christmas, $11.5M (6)
1 point - Jigsaw, $3.4M (9)
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, $2.0M
Geostorm, $1.5M
Blade Runner 2049, $1.4M
Happy Death Day, $1.3M
Lady Bird, $1.2M


PTA:
5 points - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, $80,542 (5)
4 points - Lady Bird, $32,426 (9)
3 points - Thor: Ragnarok, $13,990 (7)
2 points - Murder on the Orient Express, $8,585 (2)
1 point - Daddy's Home 2, $8,294 (1)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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