SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/1-3
Posted: October 31st, 2017, 5:09 pm
October, what the hell happened? You were the hope of non-holiday cinema, and instead you gave us a disappointing sci-fi sequel, and a bunch of miserable performances from films aiming at that adult male audience (they probably discovered you can watch porn on a smart-phone). But November is going to be different, right? Right!??
Oh god, not another Thor movie. Weren’t the first two boring enough? Well, that’s what Marvel and Disney execs must have thought too, so they went out and nabbed Kiwi indie director Taika Waititi for Thor: Ragnarok, and transformed the dull characters parading in camp costumes into a rollicking, comic buddy-movie. I’ve no idea what it’s about from the trailers, but it seems like Thor and The Hulk are forced to duke it out before tacking emo-queen Cate Blanchett as she awaits the next 30 Seconds to Mars record. The new tone has impressed critics and fanboys alike, especially with the 80s style retro trailer that gives Stranger Things fetishists something to pleasure themselves to between seasons.
So, there’s no doubt this film will HULK-SMASH this weekend. But how big can it get? With October failing to really ignite, blockbuster fans are itching for a film like this. This should be the highest Thor opening, hitting the $100m mark and earning about $250m in total, if not more if Justice League is more BatmanVSuperman than Wonder Woman. You’ll see about 12 T5 points, a handful of PTA points, and a strong IMDB score. It’s without doubt one of the best picks of the season. If you think Coco will disappoint, and if Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back 2 is too much, nab it.
A typical attempt at counter-programming is A Bad Moms Christmas (STX), the sequel to the surprise Summer hit last year. With the boys at Thor, the ladies will be sneaking in their wine spritzers to whoop at another adventure. The problem is that those femme-focused farces haven’t been working this year, with Rough Night bombing and Snatched underperforming (Girls Night appealed to a different audience). And so, with Christmas still a tad too far away, don’t expect this sequel to best the original. Expect 20m across the 5 days (it opens on Wednesday, just to avoid hunky Hemsworth) and a $60m cume. Not quite worth the $18/16 in BO, nor the $17/16 in Ultimate, when you will end up with 6 T5 points, 1 PTA point, and a sub 6 IMDB score.
A few weeks ago I presented you The Battle of the Bores, a face-off between some dull-as-Al-Gore prestige limited releases. Fortunately, that’s not the case this weekend, when three far more exciting potential breakouts get a release.
First up is Last Flag Flying (Lionsgate) , a rather surprising sequel to the 1970s classic The Last Detail, which earned Jack Nicholson an acting award at Cannes for his role as a Navy officer escorting a young seaman to prison. This film picks up 40 years later, with Nicholson’s character reunited with his pals after one of their sons dies in Iraq. Steve Carell, Bryan Cranston, and Laurence Fishburne make up the impressive cast in Richard Linklater’s adaption of the novel. This film will be one of two (after Wonder) Lionsgate will push for awards, and will appeal to cineastes and an older audience. Reviews are good but not stellar, scuppering its breakout impact, but as a limited release you can expect 7+ PTA points, making it a fine pick.
What is getting amazing buzz is Lady Bird, A24’s own Oscar hopeful. Performing unexpectedly well at Toronto this year, it’s a semi-autobiographical story of writer/director/actress Greta Gerwig’s youth in a dull Californian town. Saoirse Ronan stars in a role that may nab her some awards, and Laurie Metcalf is also getting attention for the role of the hard but well-meaning mother. Critics are calling it fun and moving, and if A24 can reach the right audience this could perform very well. Only A24 have failed to reach the right audience for every film they’ve released this year, so there may be a limit to this. Still, 6+ PTA points, a decent IMDB score, and a potential intake of $10m makes this an excellent pick in Ultimate ($3/4) and in BO ($1/2).
Sadly, with the other two films looking like contenders, the bum of the group is poor old LBJ (Electric Entertainment). Set just after Kennedy’s assassination, it sees Woody Harrelson play the second-fiddle president as he deals with the Civil Rights Act. The reviews are okay, the cast are recognisable, but the unproven distributor and heavy competition (including Palme D’Or winner The Square’s second weekend) makes this not worth your $3 in Ultimate or even your lousy buck in BO.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Thor: Ragnarok - $98m
2. A Bad Moms Christmas - $15m (20m 3-day)
3. Jigsaw - $6m
4. Boo 2 - $4.5m
5. Geostorm - $2.7m
PTA: Last Flag Flying, Lady Bird, Thor 3, The Square, LBJ
Next week Tranny is turning his attention to comedy sequel Daddy’s Home 2 (now with extra dads!), adult-contemporary wildcard Murder on the Orient Express, and potential independent cinema saviour Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri.
Oh god, not another Thor movie. Weren’t the first two boring enough? Well, that’s what Marvel and Disney execs must have thought too, so they went out and nabbed Kiwi indie director Taika Waititi for Thor: Ragnarok, and transformed the dull characters parading in camp costumes into a rollicking, comic buddy-movie. I’ve no idea what it’s about from the trailers, but it seems like Thor and The Hulk are forced to duke it out before tacking emo-queen Cate Blanchett as she awaits the next 30 Seconds to Mars record. The new tone has impressed critics and fanboys alike, especially with the 80s style retro trailer that gives Stranger Things fetishists something to pleasure themselves to between seasons.
So, there’s no doubt this film will HULK-SMASH this weekend. But how big can it get? With October failing to really ignite, blockbuster fans are itching for a film like this. This should be the highest Thor opening, hitting the $100m mark and earning about $250m in total, if not more if Justice League is more BatmanVSuperman than Wonder Woman. You’ll see about 12 T5 points, a handful of PTA points, and a strong IMDB score. It’s without doubt one of the best picks of the season. If you think Coco will disappoint, and if Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back 2 is too much, nab it.
A typical attempt at counter-programming is A Bad Moms Christmas (STX), the sequel to the surprise Summer hit last year. With the boys at Thor, the ladies will be sneaking in their wine spritzers to whoop at another adventure. The problem is that those femme-focused farces haven’t been working this year, with Rough Night bombing and Snatched underperforming (Girls Night appealed to a different audience). And so, with Christmas still a tad too far away, don’t expect this sequel to best the original. Expect 20m across the 5 days (it opens on Wednesday, just to avoid hunky Hemsworth) and a $60m cume. Not quite worth the $18/16 in BO, nor the $17/16 in Ultimate, when you will end up with 6 T5 points, 1 PTA point, and a sub 6 IMDB score.
A few weeks ago I presented you The Battle of the Bores, a face-off between some dull-as-Al-Gore prestige limited releases. Fortunately, that’s not the case this weekend, when three far more exciting potential breakouts get a release.
First up is Last Flag Flying (Lionsgate) , a rather surprising sequel to the 1970s classic The Last Detail, which earned Jack Nicholson an acting award at Cannes for his role as a Navy officer escorting a young seaman to prison. This film picks up 40 years later, with Nicholson’s character reunited with his pals after one of their sons dies in Iraq. Steve Carell, Bryan Cranston, and Laurence Fishburne make up the impressive cast in Richard Linklater’s adaption of the novel. This film will be one of two (after Wonder) Lionsgate will push for awards, and will appeal to cineastes and an older audience. Reviews are good but not stellar, scuppering its breakout impact, but as a limited release you can expect 7+ PTA points, making it a fine pick.
What is getting amazing buzz is Lady Bird, A24’s own Oscar hopeful. Performing unexpectedly well at Toronto this year, it’s a semi-autobiographical story of writer/director/actress Greta Gerwig’s youth in a dull Californian town. Saoirse Ronan stars in a role that may nab her some awards, and Laurie Metcalf is also getting attention for the role of the hard but well-meaning mother. Critics are calling it fun and moving, and if A24 can reach the right audience this could perform very well. Only A24 have failed to reach the right audience for every film they’ve released this year, so there may be a limit to this. Still, 6+ PTA points, a decent IMDB score, and a potential intake of $10m makes this an excellent pick in Ultimate ($3/4) and in BO ($1/2).
Sadly, with the other two films looking like contenders, the bum of the group is poor old LBJ (Electric Entertainment). Set just after Kennedy’s assassination, it sees Woody Harrelson play the second-fiddle president as he deals with the Civil Rights Act. The reviews are okay, the cast are recognisable, but the unproven distributor and heavy competition (including Palme D’Or winner The Square’s second weekend) makes this not worth your $3 in Ultimate or even your lousy buck in BO.
My predictions for the weekend
1. Thor: Ragnarok - $98m
2. A Bad Moms Christmas - $15m (20m 3-day)
3. Jigsaw - $6m
4. Boo 2 - $4.5m
5. Geostorm - $2.7m
PTA: Last Flag Flying, Lady Bird, Thor 3, The Square, LBJ
Next week Tranny is turning his attention to comedy sequel Daddy’s Home 2 (now with extra dads!), adult-contemporary wildcard Murder on the Orient Express, and potential independent cinema saviour Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri.