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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/1-3

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/1-3

Postby numbersix » October 31st, 2017, 5:09 pm

October, what the hell happened? You were the hope of non-holiday cinema, and instead you gave us a disappointing sci-fi sequel, and a bunch of miserable performances from films aiming at that adult male audience (they probably discovered you can watch porn on a smart-phone). But November is going to be different, right? Right!??




Oh god, not another Thor movie. Weren’t the first two boring enough? Well, that’s what Marvel and Disney execs must have thought too, so they went out and nabbed Kiwi indie director Taika Waititi for Thor: Ragnarok, and transformed the dull characters parading in camp costumes into a rollicking, comic buddy-movie. I’ve no idea what it’s about from the trailers, but it seems like Thor and The Hulk are forced to duke it out before tacking emo-queen Cate Blanchett as she awaits the next 30 Seconds to Mars record. The new tone has impressed critics and fanboys alike, especially with the 80s style retro trailer that gives Stranger Things fetishists something to pleasure themselves to between seasons.

So, there’s no doubt this film will HULK-SMASH this weekend. But how big can it get? With October failing to really ignite, blockbuster fans are itching for a film like this. This should be the highest Thor opening, hitting the $100m mark and earning about $250m in total, if not more if Justice League is more BatmanVSuperman than Wonder Woman. You’ll see about 12 T5 points, a handful of PTA points, and a strong IMDB score. It’s without doubt one of the best picks of the season. If you think Coco will disappoint, and if Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back 2 is too much, nab it.




A typical attempt at counter-programming is A Bad Moms Christmas (STX), the sequel to the surprise Summer hit last year. With the boys at Thor, the ladies will be sneaking in their wine spritzers to whoop at another adventure. The problem is that those femme-focused farces haven’t been working this year, with Rough Night bombing and Snatched underperforming (Girls Night appealed to a different audience). And so, with Christmas still a tad too far away, don’t expect this sequel to best the original. Expect 20m across the 5 days (it opens on Wednesday, just to avoid hunky Hemsworth) and a $60m cume. Not quite worth the $18/16 in BO, nor the $17/16 in Ultimate, when you will end up with 6 T5 points, 1 PTA point, and a sub 6 IMDB score.


A few weeks ago I presented you The Battle of the Bores, a face-off between some dull-as-Al-Gore prestige limited releases. Fortunately, that’s not the case this weekend, when three far more exciting potential breakouts get a release.




First up is Last Flag Flying (Lionsgate) , a rather surprising sequel to the 1970s classic The Last Detail, which earned Jack Nicholson an acting award at Cannes for his role as a Navy officer escorting a young seaman to prison. This film picks up 40 years later, with Nicholson’s character reunited with his pals after one of their sons dies in Iraq. Steve Carell, Bryan Cranston, and Laurence Fishburne make up the impressive cast in Richard Linklater’s adaption of the novel. This film will be one of two (after Wonder) Lionsgate will push for awards, and will appeal to cineastes and an older audience. Reviews are good but not stellar, scuppering its breakout impact, but as a limited release you can expect 7+ PTA points, making it a fine pick.




What is getting amazing buzz is Lady Bird, A24’s own Oscar hopeful. Performing unexpectedly well at Toronto this year, it’s a semi-autobiographical story of writer/director/actress Greta Gerwig’s youth in a dull Californian town. Saoirse Ronan stars in a role that may nab her some awards, and Laurie Metcalf is also getting attention for the role of the hard but well-meaning mother. Critics are calling it fun and moving, and if A24 can reach the right audience this could perform very well. Only A24 have failed to reach the right audience for every film they’ve released this year, so there may be a limit to this. Still, 6+ PTA points, a decent IMDB score, and a potential intake of $10m makes this an excellent pick in Ultimate ($3/4) and in BO ($1/2).




Sadly, with the other two films looking like contenders, the bum of the group is poor old LBJ (Electric Entertainment). Set just after Kennedy’s assassination, it sees Woody Harrelson play the second-fiddle president as he deals with the Civil Rights Act. The reviews are okay, the cast are recognisable, but the unproven distributor and heavy competition (including Palme D’Or winner The Square’s second weekend) makes this not worth your $3 in Ultimate or even your lousy buck in BO.



My predictions for the weekend
1. Thor: Ragnarok - $98m
2. A Bad Moms Christmas - $15m (20m 3-day)
3. Jigsaw - $6m
4. Boo 2 - $4.5m
5. Geostorm - $2.7m


PTA: Last Flag Flying, Lady Bird, Thor 3, The Square, LBJ


Next week Tranny is turning his attention to comedy sequel Daddy’s Home 2 (now with extra dads!), adult-contemporary wildcard Murder on the Orient Express, and potential independent cinema saviour Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 31st, 2017, 6:42 pm

A Bad Moms Christmas still has no reviews out (and it was sneaked at a few locations last week so it looks to be an embargo). Looks like the distributor knows they've got a terrible film and hope the brand name will be enough to sell it.

Maybe they'll actually work on the script for Bad Moms 3 instead of rushing it like the first two.

As for Lady Bird, I'm thinking it only does half that in terms of box office. Too much competition and Gerwig's films are rarely mainstream (also, the trailer is annoying).
Last edited by Buscemi2 on November 1st, 2017, 10:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/

Postby numbersix » October 31st, 2017, 6:47 pm

Woah, LBJ looks like it's coming out in 600+ theatres. Still not worth it in BO, unless you think it can hit $5m or more.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 31st, 2017, 6:50 pm

600? I was thinking LBJ would be lucky to get six theatres. No marketing and little buzz.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 31st, 2017, 7:47 pm

I'm tempted to take Lady Bird in Ultimate, but I'm still not sure. I'm far more sold on Three Billboards.


Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Kevin Pollak turned 60 on 10/30 (Usual Suspects alum; props, bro!)
Vanilla Ice turned 50 on 10/31 (stop... collaborate and LISTEN!)
Holly Taylor turned 20 on 10/31 (Is The Americans any good? I'd like to know)
Max Burkholder turns 20 on 11/1 (stared in Daddy Day Care at age 6, then on Parenthood)
Dolph Lundgren turns 60 on 11/3 (I must break you...)
Loretta Swit turns 80 on 11/4 ("I like a major with hot lips, and I'll tell you why." "Why?" "Exactly.")
Happy 40th birthday Michelle Rodriguez! (7/12/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/

Postby W » November 1st, 2017, 9:32 am

Buscemi2 wrote:A Bad Moms Christmas still has no reviews out (and it was sneaked a few locations last week so it looks to be an embargo). Looks like the distributor knows they've got a terrible film and hope the brand name will be enough to sell it.


I think that's what you said about the first one, and I did think it was terrible. And it grossed $113 M. So I'm not completely sure it matters what we think. I think Daddy's Home is a much better pick for approximately the same price, though.

I think the PTA pick of the week is Lady Bird. Out of their last six limiteds only Woodshock had an OW PTA under $20K.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/

Postby Buscemi2 » November 1st, 2017, 9:59 am

The first Bad Moms wasn't embargoed though (and critics liked that one for some reason). The last wide release movie to be embargoed until the day of the release was Tulip Fever and that was panned (38 on Metacritic)*.


* - Geostorm didn't have reviews released until opening day but it was not screened for critics.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/

Postby Shrykespeare » November 4th, 2017, 8:14 pm

Friday Estimates

Thor: Ragnarok, $46.8M
Bad Moms Xmas, $5.5M
Jigsaw, $2.0M
Boo 2, $1.2M



Weekend Projections:

Thor: Ragnarok, $120M
Bad Moms Xmas, $16M
Jigsaw, $5.5M
Boo 2, $4.5M
Geostorm, $3.1M
Happy Death Day, $2.6M
Blade Runner, $2.2M
Thank You For Your Service, $2.2M
Only the Brave, $1.9M
The Foreigner, $1.5M



PTA:
Last Flag Flying, $93K
Thor: Ragnarok, $29K
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/

Postby Buscemi2 » November 4th, 2017, 8:22 pm

That $93,000 number applies to Lady Bird (not sure if the reviews or that A24 seal brought them in). Last Flag Flying was only looking at $12,000 for the weekend.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/

Postby Shrykespeare » November 5th, 2017, 12:27 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Thor: Ragnarok, $121.0M
4 points - A Bad Moms Christmas, $17.0M ($21.6M 5-day)
3 points - Jigsaw, $6.7M
2 points - Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, $4.6M
1 point - Geostorm, $3.0M
Happy Death Day, $2.8M
Thank You For Your Service, $2.3M
Blade Runner 2049, $2.2M
Only the Brave, $1.9M
The Foreigner, $1.5M

13. LBJ, $1.1M



PTA:
5 points - Lady Bird, $94K
4 points - Thor: Ragnarok, $29.6K
3 points - Last Flag Flying, $10.5K
2 points - The Square, $5.3K
1 point - A Bad Moms Christmas or Killing of a Sacred Deer, $4.7K (less than $100 separates them)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/

Postby numbersix » November 6th, 2017, 11:06 am

What an amzing PTA for Lady Bird. The highest of the year, beating even The Big Sick, which went on to make $42m. Lady Bird is surely guaranteed to make $10m+ at this stage.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/

Postby Shrykespeare » November 6th, 2017, 6:43 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Thor: Ragnarok, $122.7M (5)
4 points - A Bad Moms Christmas, $16.8M ($21.3M 5-day) (4)
3 points - Jigsaw, $6.6M (8)
2 points - Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, $4.5M (11)
1 point - Geostorm, $3.2M (8)
Happy Death Day, $2.7M
Blade Runner 2049, $2.3M
Thank You For Your Service, $2.2M
Only the Brave, $1.9M
The Foreigner, $1.6M

13. LBJ, $1.1M



PTA:
5 points - Lady Bird, $91,109 (5)
4 points - Thor: Ragnarok, $30,085 (4)
3 points - Last Flag Flying, $10,140 (3)
2 points - The Square, $6,150 (7)
1 point - A Bad Moms Christmas, $4,636 (1)
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