Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

Post by transformers2 »

For a 2nd straight year, a cinematic icon's holiday film dominated the 3rd weekend of October.

Tyler Perry's Boo 2!: A Madea Halloween easily took the box office crown with a solid $21.2 mil haul in its first 3 days of release. If the film follows the holding pattern of its predecessor, it should be able to reach $55-65 mil by the end of its run. While Madea enjoyed the 5th #1 opening of her lengthy cinematic career, the rest of the openers crashed and burned.Geostorm, which beat out holdover Happy Death Day for the #2 spot, was in the odd spot of besting its very low projections ($8-10 mil) with a $13.3 mil opening, but still going down as a bomb due to its insane $120 mil production budget while Only the Brave and The Snowman completely flatlined with openings of $6.0 and $3.4 mil respectively. The poor box office figures that have given this year's late October slate a winter/late summer dumping ground feel are likely to continue this weekend before the fall's blockbuster slate kicks into overdrive with the release of Marvel's Thor: Ragnarok next week.

Wide Releases:
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7 years after the presumed "Final Chapter", Lionsgate has decided to revive its Halloween weekend cashcow from the 2000's with Jigsaw (Lionsgate). The 8th (!) installment in the franchise that gave birth to the horror genre's torture porn movement has kept specific plot details under wraps, but it apparently focuses on yet another string of copycat murders that appear to be inspired by the morality-based "games" and traps of the late Jigsaw Killer (Tobin Bell). Thanks in large part to a marketplace that's as barren as its been all year, Jigsaw is the overwhelming favorite to debut at #1 this weekend. To Lionsgate's credit, they have done a good job positioning this as the return of a Halloween-season staple and with It's record-breaking run starting to wind down, there's definitely a market for an R-rated horror movie. However, the enthusiasm for the series pretty much died out by the time the 6th one was released in 2009 and I'm not sure a 7-year hiatus has done much to restore the excitement level that surrounded this franchise at the peak of its popularity. I'm expecting this reboot to post an OW between $13 and $16 mil, 1-2 PTA and 9 top 5 points, an IMDB score around 6.3 and a final gross just shy of $35 mil before its promptly swallowed up by the heavyweights of November. At the reasonable price of $9 in either format in October leagues, it's a middling option that is unlikely to cause your slate to sink or soar.


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Of all the films set for release on this sleepy late October weekend, Suburbicon (Paramount) appears to be in the most trouble. George Clooney's '60's-set social satire received very mixed reviews on the fall festival circuit and boasts a premise centered around race relations and systematic racism that will likely alienate/anger a lot of audiences in America's current overwhelmingly contentious political climate. Its already questionable BO prospects became even grimmer when Clooney and star Matt Damon came under fire for their ties to Harvey Weinstein and alleged refusal to speak out against the embattled producer's lengthy history of sexual misconduct. Adding controversy to a film that was already a tough sell is a kiss of death that Suburbicon simply won't be able to recover from. I'm anticipating an OW around $6 mil (I'd go lower if it wasn't for the star power involved), zero PTA, no more than 2 Top 5 points, an IMDb score of 5.6 and a final gross of $12 mil. Skip it at all costs.


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On paper, Thank You for Your Service (Universal) seems like a surefire winner. It's the directorial debut from the writer of 2014 megahit American Sniper, addresses a topic (PTSD) that has been avoided by just about every mainstream film that has focused on the military and is coming out a time where millions of Americans are using their Twitter fingers to constantly debate the true definition of patriotism. Despite all of these seemingly encouraging signs, Thank You for Your Service is a near-lock to fail. With the alarming lack of buzz surrounding it right now, it just doesn't appear that American audiences are ready for a film that even attempts to portray soldiers as flawed individuals. I'm forecasting a $7 mil opening, a total gross in the $18-25 mil range, an IMDb score around 6.3 and #3 overall finish during this quiet weekend at the box office. The relatively high probability of it landing 3-4 top 5 points and potentially legging out to a 3-4x multiplier makes Thank You for Your Service an intriguing, cheap flier pick in either format.


Limited Releases:
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I'm honestly shocked that All I See is You (Open Road Films) is being dumped into approximately 250 theaters this weekend. Marc Forester's (World War Z, Monster's Ball) latest project boasts an interesting, original premise (a blind woman begins to question her relationship with her husband once she suddenly re-gains sight), features a solid cast anchored by Blake Lively and Jason Clarke and didn't get completely crucified by the critics that saw it at Toronto last year (it currently sits at 45% on RT), but alas, it's receiving the type of unceremonious release that studios typically reserve for the most deluxe pieces of shit they have on their books. Given these ominous circumstances, it's impossible to be optimistic about its performance at the multiplex. All I See Is You's position in the cinematic no man's land (too many theaters to net any PTA point yet not enough to make any serious $$$ at the box office) means that it likely won't be able to muster more than $750,000 this weekend and will probably end up with well under $2 mil by the time its run is over in a few weeks. Unless you have an unhealthy obsession with all things Blake Lively, All I See is You has no business being on your slate.


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Believe it or not, there are a few awards contenders that aren't slated for release in November or December. Margret Betts' religious drama Novitiate (Sony Pictures Classics) will aim to leave an impression on the powers that be before the chaos of the final 2 months set in. This Sundance acquisition tells the story of Cathleen (The Nice Guys'Margret Qualley), a young woman in the early 1980's who decides to become a nun, much to the dismay of her agonistic mother (Julianne Nicholson). Shortly after becoming a postulant, Cathleen begins to question her faith once the cruelty of the Reverend Mother (Melissa Leo), who fears that a reform proposed by the Pope will strip her of her leadership power, forces a lot of her fellow nuns to flee the convent. Somewhat better reviews (88 to 74% on RT) and Oscar buzz for Leo gives Novitiate an edge over The Square for this week's PTA title, but with Last Flag Flying, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri coming out over the next 2 weekends, it could fade fast and end up with only 4-6 PTA overall. Despite the possibility of trailing off quickly and a currently lackluster IMDb score (5.8), Novitiate's bargain-basement price of $3 should make it a worthwhile ULT pick if you have the space for it.


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After delighting the Cannes Film Festival jury back in May, American audiences finally get a chance to see 2017's Palm d'Or winner The Square (Magnolia) this weekend. This Swedish satirical drama centers around the questionable publicity campaign of an art installation in Stockholm that results in a lot of CHAOS in the usually tranquil world of modern art (in case you were wondering, I'll be rushing to the theater as soon as this opens in Boston). The Palm d'or Win and love of the director's previous film (Force Majeure amongst the arthouse crowd gives The Square a legitimate shot at getting the #1 PTA spot this weekend. That being said, the wackiness of its premise and lack of American awards buzz makes me think that it will narrowly loss out to Novitiate. Even though it probably won't be the top limited release this weekend, The Square is still worth considering as a cheap option with a great IMDb score (7.8) and solid PTA potential.


Weekend Projections:
1.Jigsaw $14 mil
2.Boo 2! $10 mil
3.Thank You for Your Service $7 mil
4/5.Geostorm/Suburbicon $6 mil

PTA: Novitiate, The Square, The Killing of a Sacred Deer,Wonderstruck,Jigsaw

Tune in next week when six breaks down the 1st exciting slate of films in nearly a month headlined by Marvel's hotly-anticipated Thor: Ragnarok, R-rated comedy sequel A Bad Moms Christmas , Richard Linklater's latest slice-of-life dramedy Last Flag Flying and Greta Gerwig's festival circuit darling Lady Bird.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

Post by numbersix »

I see some predictions for Jigsaw landing in the early 20s. Maybe because Saw 3D opened to that amount, but I don't see this repeating that anomoly. I think this will be at the lower end of your predictions, Tranny. Spot on with the other ones. Suburbicon is going to be less affected by Weinstein that the poor reviews, which is sorely needed in a weak weekend. The other 2 are DOA.

Interesting point re Noviate. Still think The Square has awards prestige (it's guaranteed an Oscar nom), despite Magnolia releasing. Let's hope they dont' expand too quickly as there are points to be had next weekend too, despite the fierce PTA competition.

1.Jigsaw - $13 mil
2.Boo 2! - $10 mil
3. Suburbicon - $7 mil
4. Geostorm - $6 mil
5. Thank You For Your Service - $6mil

PTA: The Square, Sacred Deer, Wonderstruck, Jigsaw, Florida Project

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

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I stopped dead in my tracks when I saw the 20+ mil industry projections for Jigsaw on Deadline this afternoon. I'd be stunned if this franchise still had enough juice left to produce that high of an OW.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

Post by Buscemi2 »

If you went to the showing of It that I did, you'd see that there's still a lot of excitement for the Saw movies. I was amazed at how well that trailer played with an audience.

And Thank You for Your Service reminds me too much of Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk. If that couldn't play with a two-time Oscar-winning director and 3-D surcharges (albeit in just two theatres due to the complicated MAGI process), how's this going to play with a box office poison lead and a first-time director? I don't think it hits $3 million for the weekend.

As for Suburbicon, the writing was on the wall once the first reviews came out. There was probably a reason why the script spent 30 years in limbo before it got rewritten into a completely different film (which reminds me of that Chris Evans film from a few years back that was initially going to be a thriller with Monica Bellucci before Evans had it turned into a romance).
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Jigsaw - 2,941
Thank You For Your Service - 2,054
Suburbicon - 2,046
All I See is You - 283
Novitiate - 3

Amityville: The Awakening - 10 (on Sat.)



Next week:

Thor: Ragnarok - 3,800 (WTF? What was the last Marvel extraboomza to not get a 4K opening?)
Last Flag Flying - 4




Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Kevin Kline turned 70 on 10/24 (watching Dave now with a whole new set of eyes)
Nancy Cartwright turned 60 on 10/25 (Bart Simpson ... is 60!!!)
Jon Heder turned 40 on 10/26 (wow... where has this guy been for 10 years?)
Julia Roberts turns 50 on 10/28 (great to still see her getting roles past 50!)
Richard Dreyfuss turns 70 on 10/29 (you're gonna need a bigger boat...)
Rufus Sewell turns 50 on 10/29 (If you've never seen Dark City, I recommend it)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

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A Bad Moms Christmas is getting 3,500 theatres on Wednesday.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

Post by Walleye413 »

I love Dark City! One of my favorite under-appreciated films.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday results:

Jigsaw, $7.2M
Boo 2, $2.6M
Geostorm, $1.5M
Happy Death Day, $1.5M
Thank You, $1.5M
Blade Runner, $1.1M
Suburbicon, $1.1M
Only the Brave, $1.1M



Weekend Projections:

Jigsaw, $15M
Boo 2, $9.7M
Geostorm, $5.2M
Happy Death Day, $4.7M
Thank You, $4.1M
Blade Runner, $4M
Only the Brave, $3.6M
The Foreigner, $3.3M
Suburbicon, $3M
It, $2.4M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Thank You for Your Service: A-
Jigsaw: B
Suburbicon: D- (Does this give Paramount the two lowest Cinemascores this year? By the way, I wonder what Paramount's excuse for this one will be.)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Jigsaw, $16.2M
4 points - Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, $10.0M
3 points - Geostorm, $5.7M
2 points - Happy Death Day, $5.1M
1 point - Blade Runner 2049, $4.0M
Thank You For Your Service, $3.7M
Only the Brave, $3.4M
The Foreigner, $3.2M
Suburbicon, $2.8M
It, $2.5M

28. All I See is You, $135K



PTA:
5 points - The Square (killed it)
4 points - Novitiate
3 points - The Killing of a Sacred Deer
2 points - Jigsaw
1 point - Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween



BTW, not one single player picked Novitiate in any of the leagues. What a waste.

No one picked Thank You For Your Service either. And since it earned no T5 or PTA, I will be removing it from the list.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

Post by numbersix »

Didn't realise Novitate was in the game. That explains why Tranny referenced it this weekend lol

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

Post by Shrykespeare »

And bad news for who picked Amityville: the Awakening... it reported. It earned $742 in 10 theaters. If it goes bye-bye after this week, that will definitely set a Draft League record by a mile.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

Post by Buscemi2 »

That's what happens when you give a movie away for free two weeks before release (among other things).

And it's certain to end after this week. The Blu-ray comes out on November 14th.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/27

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Jigsaw, $16.6M (5)
4 points - Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, $10.1M (9)
3 points - Geostorm, $5.9M (7)
2 points - Happy Death Day, $5.1M (10)
1 point - Blade Runner 2049, $4.1M (12)
Thank You For Your Service, $3.8M
Only the Brave, $3.5M
The Foreigner, $3.4M
Suburbicon, $2.8M
It, $2.5M

28. All I See is You, $144K



PTA:
5 points - The Square, $18,558 (5)
4 points - Novitiate, $7,575 (4)
3 points - The Killing of a Sacred Deer, $6,823 (8)
2 points - Jigsaw, $5,658 (2)
1 point - Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, $4,210 (4)



BTW, not one single player picked Novitiate in any of the leagues. What a waste.

No one picked Thank You For Your Service either. And since it earned no T5 or PTA, I will be removing it from the list.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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