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RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/10

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RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/10

Postby Ron Burgundy » October 19th, 2017, 6:50 am

Hi Folks! If you've just tuned in we'll remind you of last week's take.

Happy Death Day won by a nice margin, earning just a tad over $26M, on a budget of under $5M, Blumhouse is doing something right after the massive hits earlier in the year, Split and Get Out.

Blade Runner 2049 almost slipped to 3rd place but held on to runner up in its 2nd week grossing about $15.5M, edging out The Foreigner starring two old action stars of yesteryear which out performed expectations taking home over $13M.

Rounding out the top 5 with the same budget as The Foreigner ($35M), was It in its 6th(!) week and The Mountain Between us.

So, the films of this week could use a bit of pepper, perhaps a slice of pumpkin, toss some salt over your right shoulder because leading the way for a new champ is Tyler Perry's BOO 2: A Madea Halloween.
Perhaps the least wanted sequel for the masses of pumpkin eaters out there, but begging for more are those crazy Madea fans. Are they stranger than fiction? Did they even pay to see It? Is BOO going to save the cinema?
Questions we can only wait and see for thy answer.
Last BOO, resulted in $28M opening and a $73M cume. Staggering stats for a films with 21% on RT and 4.7 on imdb - note just 4700 ratings, else u know it would be higher.

I'm predicting $24M opening and $64M all up. Not bad for BO
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Re: RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 19th, 2017, 10:40 pm

Great column... but where's the rest of it?

Box Office's Weekend Forecast:

Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, $19M
Happy Death Day, $11M
Geostorm, $10.5M
Only the Brave, $9M
Blade Runner 2049, $8.9M
The Snowman, $8M
The Foreigner, $6.65M
It, $3.8M
American Made, $3.4M
The Mountain Between Us, $3.2M
Same Kind of Different as Me, $3.1M




PROS:

Geostorm boasts Gerard Butler in a similar role that helped him drive the success of Olympus Has Fallen and its sequel. Twitter activity is somewhat stronger than Gods of Egypt and Into the Storm.

Only the Brave boasts a strong ensemble, a heroic true life story, and encouraging reviews (95 percent and 7.2 rating from 22 critics on Rotten Tomatoes) that could help it appeal to older men and women. Twitter activity is comparable to The Finest Hours.

Same Kind of Different as Me marks the latest faith-based drama from Pure Flix, a studio which has had its fair share of low-budget successes centered around Christian themes. The studio is projecting an opening between $3 million and $4 million.

The Snowman aims to leverage the fan base of Jo Nesbø’s bestselling book with an ensemble cast led by Michael Fassbender. Appeal to women will be key if this is to break out beyond expectations. Facebook activity is comparable to The Mountain Between Us.

Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween strikes while the iron is hot after last year’s strong run by the first Madea Halloween. Recent weekly Twitter data is similar to that film.


CONS:

Geostorm lacks any critical reviews so far, which is an ominous sign this close to release. Moreover, disaster pics aren’t the hot commodity they were two decades ago without significant star power, a prime release date, and/or a unique hook. Facebook growth is leagues behind that of Gods of Egypt and Into the Storm.

Only the Brave has struggled to gain a foothold on social media with Twitter and Facebook activity comparable to 2015’s The 33 and well below that of Everest.

Same Kind of Different as Me‘s trends don’t suggest this will break out beyond the core church-going audience in the vein of War Room as marketing has been minimal.

The Snowman is weighed down by poor reviews thus far (26 percent/3.8 rating from 42 critics), while Twitter trends are markedly behind The Secret In Their Eyes. The film’s 1,800+ location count also limits potential.

Comedic sequels rarely live up to their predecessors’ runs these days. For Boo 2!, it appears that will again be the case as social media sentiment isn’t standing out as much as was seen this time last year when the first Boo! opened.
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Re: RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 19th, 2017, 10:58 pm

I wouldn't take Twitter seriously as a measure for a film's buzz. Remember, this is a place where people want The Purge to be a reality just so they can kill who they don't like and get away with it.

A few days ago, I saw that Geostorm was tracking close to $20 million. I'm not sure if I can believe that but this seems to suggest that audiences don't care about the difficult production or the bad test screenings.

Meanwhile, I don't even think The Snowman will hit $5 million. Universal's basically dumping it and reviews have been horrible (23 on Metacritic, making it the worst-reviewed wide release since The Emoji Movie).
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Re: RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 20th, 2017, 12:10 am

I want to see The Snowman. Why are the critics panning it?


Weekend Theater counts:

Geostorm - 3,246
Only the Brave - 2,577
Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween - 2,388
The Snowman - 1,812
Same Kind of Difference as Me - 1,362
The Killing of the Sacred Deer - 4
Wonderstruck - 4
Dealt - 1



Next week:

Jigsaw - 2,700
Suburbicon - 2,000
Thank You for Your Service - 2,000
All I See is You - 250





Celebrity birthdays:

Joe Morton turned 70 on 10/18 (is Skynet still going up??)
Zac Efron turned 30 on 10/18 (I can't help but wonder if his career will make it to 40...)
Happy 30th birthday Anna Popplewell! (12/16/18)
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Re: RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 20th, 2017, 12:31 am

Here's the Metacritic excerpts (now up to 25 as someone finally gave it a positive review): http://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-snowman. Pretty much everything's been panned.

And Efron seems to finally be noticing that his attempts at reinventing himself aren't working as his next few roles are him trying something he's never done before (the Ted Bundy project he's doing with Joe Berlinger), returning to musicals (The Greatest Showman), or doing character work (The Disaster Artist). He needs another good romantic role (these were doing well for him, so I don't why he thought doing bro-type roles would help his career) to fully redeem him in the eyes of audiences.
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Re: RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/

Postby undeadmonkey » October 20th, 2017, 10:52 am

Wow, I really believed them this time, when they said All I See Is You was going wide. Count another bomb for my Full Year slate.
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Re: RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 20th, 2017, 11:33 am

undeadmonkey wrote:Wow, I really believed them this time, when they said All I See Is You was going wide. Count another bomb for my Full Year slate.


You can drop it for Gringo if you want to...
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Re: RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/

Postby Walleye413 » October 20th, 2017, 1:26 pm

I think Zefron has some real talent and charisma. But yeah, he better figure out some wiser movie choices soon or he'll go the way of thousands of other actors who missed their chance as well. I'm stoked for the The Greatest Showman, but that's cause I'm a nerd who loves Musicals. Curious how it will play.

For this weekend, Only The Brave seems like the best of the bunch. Great reviews, powerful story. And it's getting dumped by the studio too. Another bomb for me in the full year draft.
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Re: RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 21st, 2017, 6:21 am

Friday estimates (via Deadline):

1.) Boo 2! A Madea Halloween (LG), 2,388 theaters / $7.45M Fri. (includes $760k previews) / 3-day cume: $22M / Wk 1

2.) Geostorm (WB/SKY), 3,246 theaters / $4.16M Fri. (no previews) / 3-day cume: $12.2M / Wk 1

3)Happy Death Day (UNI/BLUM), 3,298 theaters (+149) / $3.1M Fri. (-74%) / 3-day cume: $9.5M (-63%)/ Total: $40.8M/Wk 2

4.)Blade Runner 2049 (ALC/WB/SONY), 3,203 theaters (-855)/ $1.9M Fri. / 3-day cume: $6.7M (-57%) /Total: $73.6M/ Wk 3

5.) Only the Brave (SONY), 2,577 theaters / $2.15M Fri. (includes $305k previews) / 3-day cume: $6.2M / Wk 1

6.) The Foreigner (STX), 2,515 theaters / $1.53M Fri. (-68%) / 3-day cume: $5.3M (-60%)/ Total: $22.7M/Wk 2

7.) The Snowman (UNI), 1,812 theaters / $1.35M Fri. (includes $270k previews) / 3-day cume: $3.7M / Wk 1

8.) American Made (UNI), 2,559 (-539) / $960k Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.3M (-41%)/Total: $45.6M/ Wk 4

9.) Kingsman: The Golden Circle (FOX), 2,318 theaters (-664) / $870k Fri. (-41%)/3-day cume: $3.2M (-40%) / Total: $94.8M / Wk 5

10.) It (NL/WB), 2,560 theaters (-616) / $960k Fri. /3-day cume: $3M (-50%) / Total: $319.8M / Wk 7

Notables:

Same Kind of Different As Me (PURE/PAR) 1,326 theaters, $1M Fri /3-day: $2.9M/Wk 1

Marshall (OR) 821 screens, $487K Fri (-53%) /3-day: $1.65M (-45%)/Total: $5.6M/Wk 2

Professor Marston & The Wonder Women (AP) 959 screens (-270)/ $65K Fri (-74%) /3-day: $225K (-69%)/Total: $1.3M/Wk 2



Cinemascores:
Only the Brave: A
Boo! Two: A-
Geostorm: B-
The Snowman: D

Comments:
- Geostorm and The Snowman will probably kill some careers. A number of the people involved with both projects were already in movie jail while Tomas Alfredson's days being called a genius for Let the Right One In seem so far away (on the other hand, the remake's director, Matt Reeves, is hot after two Apes sequels).
- How much longer can Pure Flix keep going? With Colony Capital about to buy the former Weinstein Company, this company is turning into its Evangelical counterpart and the new buzzword for a DOA film with limited audience appeal.
- On a related note, I'm wondering if Annapurna's going to throw in the towel and get involved with MGM's plans to re-enter distribution with its Orion plans. Three projects released so far and all have flopped while Death Wish was set to be their big holiday film until the Las Vegas shooting happened. And will Backseat, a film I'm convinced few will see, really put them on the map?
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Re: RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 21st, 2017, 12:19 pm

Friday Estimates

Boo 2, $7.5M
Geostorm, $4.3M
Happy Death Day, $3M
Only the Brave, $2.1M
Blade Runner, $2M
The Foreigner, $1.6M
Same Kind of Different, $1.4M
The Snowman, $1.3M
It, $1M



Weekend projections:

Boo 2, $20M
Geostorm, $13M
Happy Death Day, $9.6M
Blade Runner, $6.6M
Only the Brave, $6.1M
The Foreigner, $5.2M
The Snowman, $3.6M
It, $3.2M
American Made, $3.2M
Kingsman, $3M
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Re: RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 22nd, 2017, 1:06 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, $21.6M
4 points - Geostorm, $13.3M
3 points - Happy Death Day, $9.4M
2 points - Blade Runner 2049, $7.1M
1 point - Only the Brave, %6.0M
The Foreigner, $5.4M
It, $3.5M
The Snowman, $3.4M
American Made, $3.2M
Kingsman: The Golden Circle, $3.0M

12. Same Kind of Difference as Me, $2.6M



PTA:
5 points - The Killing of the Sacred Deer, $28,646
4 points - Wonderstruck, $17,191
3 points - Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, $9,066
2 points - The Florida Project, $5,684
1 point - Geostorm, $4,097

No numbers on Dealt yet.
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Re: RON'S RECIPES 4 REEL SLATE AWESOMENESS: THE FILMS OF 20/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 23rd, 2017, 6:35 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, $21.2M (5)
4 points - Geostorm, $13.7M (4)
3 points - Happy Death Day, $9.4M (8)
2 points - Blade Runner 2049, $7.4M (11)
1 point - Only the Brave, %6.0M (1)
The Foreigner, $5.8M
It, $3.5M
The Snowman, $3.4M
American Made, $3.1M
Kingsman: The Golden Circle, $3.0M

12. Same Kind of Difference as Me, $2.6M



PTA:
5 points - The Killing of the Sacred Deer, $28,780 (5)
4 points - Wonderstruck, $16,471 (4)
3 points - Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, $8,889 (3)
2 points - The Florida Project, $5,377 (12)
1 point - Dealt, $4,293 (1)
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