SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/13
Posted: October 11th, 2017, 3:41 am
The year of cinema continues to surprise… in a bad way. Both Blade Runner 2049 and My Little Pony were, at different stages, expecting to surprise but both underwhelmed and will struggle to count themselves as a success by the year’s end. Will anything surprise this weekend?
Your best chance is Happy Death Day (Universal), the only supernatural horror coming out between now and the prime-ghoul weekend that is Halloween. It’s a teen horror take on Groundhog Day, with a girl reliving her birthday, which also happens to be the day she’s murdered. With no major cast attached, its main appeal is its strong trailer, Blumhouse credentials (Split, Get Out), and its appropriate Friday the 13th release. That should give it enough to win the weekend, although It is still holding strong and may have sated that younger horror audience (although I’ve seen Lego that’s scarier than It). There’s also a crowded field next week to consider. So expect a high teens opening and a poor hold, giving you around $40m by the end. Not quite enough for the BO prices, although in Ultimate it’s not a bad choice for $11-13, when it could nab you 7 T5 points, 3 PTA, and a high 5s IMDB score.
Does Jackie Chan matter in the US anymore? STX are banking on it, with The Foreigner, Chan’s first lead role in a wide release in over 7 years. It’s a martial-arts actioner co-starring Pierce Brosnan, and directed by Casino Royale helmer Martin Campbell. It looks like the kind of film that should have come out in the 90s. So don’t expect much, certainly not enough to spend precious league dollars on it.
Marshall (Open Road) is the kind of film that should surprise. In this era of #BLM where politically and racially charged films help contribute to an ongoing cultural debate, this should be the next Hidden Figures. Chadwick Boseman plays Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall, the first African American to get that role, in one of his defining cases. Sadly, Open Road have decided to release it in 800 theatres, a bizarre choice that will result in it being of little value in BO and Ultimate.
And now, dear readers, comes the highlight of the weekend. I present to you:
BATTLE OF THE BORES!
That’s right, while limited independent films suggest something more niche, something more experimental, and this more exciting, in this instance we have two options that are more middle-of-the-road than a fucking Chicago album. One is about the dude who created Winnie the Pooh, the other is about the script-writer’s polio-inflicted father. Both are Oscar-bait that aim squarely for that older audience who want something more sedate and drama-focused. And both are getting somewhat damp responses by the critics after major festival screenings.
So who will win the PTA crown? Who cares! They’re both similarly priced, but those reviews might make more points from next week a less likely prospect, particularly when more exciting arthouse fare is coming out next week in the shape of The Killing of a Sacred Deer and Wonderstruck. And Victoria and Abdul is already catering for that older crowd. With 4 theatres instead of 8, Breathe (Bleeker St) might just edge out over Goodbye Christopher Robin (Fox Searchlight). But unless you’re expecting either to surprise, I’d look elsewhere for my $4 in ultimate and $1-3 in BO
My predictions for the weekend
1. Happy Death Day - $18m
2. Blade Runner 2049 - $16m
3. The Foreigner - $8m
4. It - $5m
5. The Mountain Between Us - $5m
- Marshall - $4m
PTA: Breathe, Goodbye Christopher Robin, The Florida Project, Happy Death Day, Dina
Next week Ron B comments on a demolition derby of wide releases, with Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, Geostorm, The Snowman, Same Kind of Different as Me, and Only the Brave all duking it out. And on the limited front, prestige pics The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Dealt, and Wonderstruck all vie for that PTA crown.
Your best chance is Happy Death Day (Universal), the only supernatural horror coming out between now and the prime-ghoul weekend that is Halloween. It’s a teen horror take on Groundhog Day, with a girl reliving her birthday, which also happens to be the day she’s murdered. With no major cast attached, its main appeal is its strong trailer, Blumhouse credentials (Split, Get Out), and its appropriate Friday the 13th release. That should give it enough to win the weekend, although It is still holding strong and may have sated that younger horror audience (although I’ve seen Lego that’s scarier than It). There’s also a crowded field next week to consider. So expect a high teens opening and a poor hold, giving you around $40m by the end. Not quite enough for the BO prices, although in Ultimate it’s not a bad choice for $11-13, when it could nab you 7 T5 points, 3 PTA, and a high 5s IMDB score.
Does Jackie Chan matter in the US anymore? STX are banking on it, with The Foreigner, Chan’s first lead role in a wide release in over 7 years. It’s a martial-arts actioner co-starring Pierce Brosnan, and directed by Casino Royale helmer Martin Campbell. It looks like the kind of film that should have come out in the 90s. So don’t expect much, certainly not enough to spend precious league dollars on it.
Marshall (Open Road) is the kind of film that should surprise. In this era of #BLM where politically and racially charged films help contribute to an ongoing cultural debate, this should be the next Hidden Figures. Chadwick Boseman plays Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall, the first African American to get that role, in one of his defining cases. Sadly, Open Road have decided to release it in 800 theatres, a bizarre choice that will result in it being of little value in BO and Ultimate.
And now, dear readers, comes the highlight of the weekend. I present to you:
BATTLE OF THE BORES!
That’s right, while limited independent films suggest something more niche, something more experimental, and this more exciting, in this instance we have two options that are more middle-of-the-road than a fucking Chicago album. One is about the dude who created Winnie the Pooh, the other is about the script-writer’s polio-inflicted father. Both are Oscar-bait that aim squarely for that older audience who want something more sedate and drama-focused. And both are getting somewhat damp responses by the critics after major festival screenings.
So who will win the PTA crown? Who cares! They’re both similarly priced, but those reviews might make more points from next week a less likely prospect, particularly when more exciting arthouse fare is coming out next week in the shape of The Killing of a Sacred Deer and Wonderstruck. And Victoria and Abdul is already catering for that older crowd. With 4 theatres instead of 8, Breathe (Bleeker St) might just edge out over Goodbye Christopher Robin (Fox Searchlight). But unless you’re expecting either to surprise, I’d look elsewhere for my $4 in ultimate and $1-3 in BO
My predictions for the weekend
1. Happy Death Day - $18m
2. Blade Runner 2049 - $16m
3. The Foreigner - $8m
4. It - $5m
5. The Mountain Between Us - $5m
- Marshall - $4m
PTA: Breathe, Goodbye Christopher Robin, The Florida Project, Happy Death Day, Dina
Next week Ron B comments on a demolition derby of wide releases, with Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, Geostorm, The Snowman, Same Kind of Different as Me, and Only the Brave all duking it out. And on the limited front, prestige pics The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Dealt, and Wonderstruck all vie for that PTA crown.